Racing Chat- Saturday 17th June

[The Brigadier]

The calm before the storm? We’re only four days away from the greatest flat meeting in the world in Royal Ascot but we’ve still got seven races today from Sandown, York and a sole handicap from Chester beamed to us by ITV and with the ground fast at all three meetings here are my thoughts to beat the bookies this Saturday.

 

York 14:00

York’s card kicks off with the Queen Mother’s Cup run over 1M 4F, a handicap for female amateur riders only. As always in this race we have a good sized field of 15. Adrian Paul Keatley has booked crack Irish amateur Miss Jodie Townend, sister of Paul and has as good a chance as any here having won over course and distance last month. The six year old has actually won a half decent handicap hurdle at Market Rasen since and should be thereabouts. Last year’s winning jockey Miss Alice Stevens rides Ian William’s Dream Harder who was a bit unlucky under William Buick at Chester last time although has to prove himself on very fast ground.

One horse who does look particularly well handicapped on his National Hunt form is the Brian Ellison trained Impulsive One who’s rated as high as 131 over timber when trained by Nicky Henderson and reverts back to the flat now rated just 79 so using the old theory of 40lb between the two codes puts him in here with a big shout. He’s my tentative each way bet in this wide open handicap.

 

IMPULSIVE ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 14:15

Thirteen go to post for this 1M class 2 0-100 handicap. It has an open look about it although if there is one horse who may just be ahead of his mark here it’s probably one of the two three year olds in the contest down the bottom of the handicap in Charlie Hills’ Bodorgan. He made his handicap/re-appearance debut in the valuable Betfred Silver Bowl at Haydock last month when despite finding trouble in running finished 5th beaten 4 3/4L to the well supported favourite Covey. But for finding trouble two out he may well have been placed and off of the same mark and with champion jockey William Buick booked is the one to be with here. The only slight negative is his draw in stall 10 of 13 but I’m sure Buick will have a plan and can overcome that wide draw.

The other three year old Zu Run, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy is drawn even wider than the selection but has place claims along with the likes of Helm Rock (drawn even wider in 13) and Baltimore Boy who finished just behind him at Ascot in a boys race last time. Ryan Moore takes the ride for the Sir Michael Stoute trained New Dimension which is always interesting although we haven’t seen him for 293 days.

One horse that’s worth keeping an eye on here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained First View who we haven’t seen since the Dubai Carnival 127 days ago.

 

BODORGAN 2 points win @ 4/1 Betfred

 

York 14:35

A competitive class 3 7F 0-95 handicap for three year olds and upwards has attracted 13 runners.

Darkness, trained by David O’Meara hasn’t won since joining O’Meara from France some 14 starts ago but has been knocking on the door recently having just been claimed close home at Goodwood last time and off of the same mark has to be on the short list.

Saeed Bin Suroor’s Wild Lion is an interesting runner in first time cheek pieces and is best watched closely in the market after a 113 day layoff whilst Geoffrey Harker’s veteran ten year old Scottish Summit arrives in excellent form and despite his age shouldn’t be dismissed.

The only three year old in the race is Richard Fahey’s Indian Falcon who is yet another with claims.

A wide open contest where bets should be kept to a minimum and I’ll take a chance on the Godolphin runner Wild Lion who although yet to win on the turf in five attempts is still lightly raced enough to make a mark under Kieran O’Neill.

 

WILD LION 1/2 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 14:50

Only nine have declared for this listed Milton Colts Scurry Stakes to be run over 5F for three year olds only. The draw is not as important as days gone by although I do feel drawn on the rail on the far side (low numbers) is the place to be.

Richard Fahey’s Great State has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his listed success at York last month when defeating Pillow Talk by 2 1/2L although the runner up that day has been soundly beaten since by one of his opponents today in the shape of George Boughey’s Perdika who is the other runner here to carry a 3lb penalty having won a listed contest at Chantilly in France a fortnight ago. My worry with her is that she appears to have been kept away from very fast ground although to be fair to her that latest victory did come on good ground.

I’m keen to take the pair of them on with the highly promising Roger Varian trained, Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum owned Tajalla. He’s unbeaten in two starts at Newmarket 14 months ago on his debut and when re-appearing at Hamilton six weeks ago when making hard work of it to scrape home from Silent Words (4th to Great State since). That form alone will probably not be good enough here but it was his first start for 388 days and must surely have benefited from the outing and with David Egan on board can improve to take this valuable sprint.

 

TAJALLA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor

 

York 15:05

The 1M 6F Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup is a listed contest which has attracted just seven runners. The winner here gets an automatic entry in The Ebor over course and distance in July.

The best in here at these weights is Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn who is more than capable especially if give an easy lead as he was in last year’s Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor meeting when beating current Gold Cup favourite Coltrane by 14L over 2M. There was nothing wrong with his 4th in the Yorkshire Cup over course and distance last time with the horse that at he finished just behind him Siskany winning a Grade 2 in North America since.

His main danger here will be the John & Thady Gosden trained Israr who has claims to be the best bred horse running anywhere today being by Muhaarar out of the great mare Taghrooda who won the Oaks and the King George at Ascot. His runner up last time to Haskoy in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury was a decent effort and she steps upto 1M 6F for the first time today.

Roberto Escobar won this race two years ago and bounced back to form when winning the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown over two miles last month. That was a weak renewal of the race and he has to carry a 5lb penalty here which will make it tough. This can be fought out by Israr and Quickthorn with preference marginally for the latter who may just get an easy lead.

 

QUICKTHORN 1 point win @ 2/1 Paddy Power

 

Chester 15:20

A valuable 7F 127 yards class 2 three year olds only handicap is up next which, as always at Chester, the draw is highly significant.

The current favourite Man Of Eden is due to run on Friday evening at Goodwood so there is a big possibility that he won’t turn up prompting a rule 4. He was an eye-catcher last time at Goodwood and were he to rock up here would be a player from stall 6.

William Haggas has hit a rich vein of form this week with an across the card treble on Wednesday and his Tafreej has shown enough in two handicap starts this season to warrant plenty of respect here under Cieren Fallon.

It’s hard to fancy those drawn out very wide as they have a mountain to climb before even leaving the gate so from a punting view we can put a line through the likes of Venetian (drawn 12), Saxon King (10) and In These Shoes (11).

The bottom weight Sophia’s Starlight is the one to be with here from an attractive draw in stall 2. She’s a carefree front runner who can take a hold but showed last time at Wetherby (and earlier this season at Wolverhampton) that she can be very effective if allowed to get on the front end and clock her own fractions. She did it well at Wetherby from the front in a time 0.91 secs faster than the older horse handicap later on the card and off of just a 3lb higher mark we look sure to get a decent run for our money from the Grant Tuer trained, Nick Bradley owned filly.

 

SOPHIAS STARLIGHT 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 15:40

The feature race of the day is the Oakmere Homes Supporting Macmilan Sprint Handicap, a 6F handicap for three year olds only rated 0-105.

It’s a wide open renewal this year with bookmakers currently betting 7-1 the field.

Kevin Ryan saddles a trio of horses with chances including Quintus Arrius, a winner at Hamilton last time and now 6lb higher and Washington Heights who’s form ties in nicely with the five timer chasing Quinault trained by Stuart Williams. The former is actually 4lb better off for a length with Quinault so there shouldn’t be much between that pair.

The only horse in the field who has future Group entries is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s top weight Mill Stream who was a progressive juvenile but was well beaten on his re-appearance in the Sandy Lane at Haydock and there may be doubts as to whether he’s even trained on. Charlie Hills’ Shadwell owned colt Rabaah is also making his handicap debut following two impressive victories on the all weather and wasn’t disgraced when 5th to the improving Shaquille in listed company at Newbury last month. He had horses rated 106 and 100 behind him that day when dead heating for 5th place with the 117 rated Noble Style so an initial mark of 97 may actually be lenient if that run can be believed.

It’s a wide open contest with chances for many but I’ll take a chance that Jim Crowley’s mount Rabaah is well enough in to beat his rivals.

 

RABAAH 1 point each way @ 10/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

All odds are accurate at time of writing.

 

[Brahmin]

Great and interesting read / analysis of TV races by The Brigadier.....will back some of the selections, but am saving amo for Ascots 5days......

[MCLARKE]

This Saturday sees the running of the Macmillan Sprint Handicap at York. This is the biggest charity meeting in Britain and has raised approximately £10 million for good causes.

This heritage handicap is for three-year-olds. It is run over 6 furlongs and the off time is 15.40.

22 go to post and with many bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Those horses drawn in stalls 1 to 7 have by far the best record with 6 wins from 53 runs and a profit of 38 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have just 2 wins from 96 runs with a loss of 59 points.

Horses that finished 3rd, 4th or 5th last time have a good record with 4 wins from 40 runs and a profit of 40 points.

The ideal weight range is 9st 2 lbs to 9st 8lbs with 4 wins from 36 runs and a profit of 21 points.

 

Only 1 horse matches these criteria.

RABAAH 11/1

I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

[kensland]

Patent

4.30. Sand. Sonemus         10/3

5.00. Chest. Tudor               4/1

6.55. Leic.   Baileygutfeeling      8/13

stk 3.50     rtn 41.00.

Good luck all. 

[kensland]

Lucky 15.

1.40. Sand. The Parent      9/2           unpl

2.30. Bath. Yellow Lion        15/8        unpl

3.00. Bath. Dappering.           5/2        unpl

4.10. Bath. Original Dancer     2/1        2nd 

stk. 7.50      rtn 226.18.

Good luck all. 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

3.00 Hexham Well Educated 6/1 bog .  He’s only just in front of Glinger Flame on ratings.

5 points win 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Villa Chris

[kensland]

York. 

Single. 

2.00. Impulsive One         12/1      unpl

stk. 5.00     rtn 65.00

Good luck all. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Double. 

3.20. Chest. Sophia's Starlight         4/1

5.25. York. Royal Parade                  13/2

singles & double 

stk 6.00       rtn 100.00

Good luck all. 

[Brahmin]

small stakes today only............

 

York 2.00     Bollin Margaret      13/2 EW         4 places    betfair         dh 4th

york 2.00     Impulsive One       14/1 EW          4 places

 

Sand  2.15    Dutch Decoy        9/1  EW         4 places                2nd

 

York  2.35     Wild Lion         8/1 EW            4 places               Won

york  2.35     Liamarty Dreams     17/2  EW     4 places

 

Chester 3.20     Royal Dubai   8/1 EW        3 places             2nd

 

York 3.40       Rabaah     11/1 EW             6 places   betfair       5th

york 3.40      Spirit of Applause    12/1 EW      6 places

york 3.40      Quintus Arrius      16/1 EW      6 places

 

Good luck with todays racing   

soooo, a small profit today with 1 win 🏆 and 4 EW places......

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Brahmin

[black rabbit]

Impulsive One                                               2 00 Yrk/        1/40th of a pt ew           20/1

Snash                                                              2 35 Yrk/        1/40th of a pt ew           18/1

Dark Kestrel                                                   3 40 Yrk/        1/40th of a pt ew           16/1

Reidh                                                               3 20 Yrk/        1/20tn of a pt win          12/1

[fd1972uk]

1400 yor kihavah

Impulsive one mb3 places

1420 che vintage clarets

1435 yor wild lion

Each way on gweedore and snazzy jazzy (wife has done this and liamarty dreams who won at musselburgh for her when we were there)

1445 che cockalorum

1525 San Harry magnus

1540 yor catch the paddy free bet used

Also got some coral bb still to go, deciding between quinault and Mill stream.

1725 yor good earth, was that or abate.

 

Good luck all.

[Sporting Sam]

Downpatrick 1.45.

Howaya C D And E

Each way

Gets the right ground after long lay off.

[Libby48]

Chester 17:00 

Thunder Ahead  13/1 £10 E/W

York 15:40 pm

Eminencey  12/1/ Garner 22/1

16:50 pm 

What's the story 5/1

16:25 pm

Good Earth 4/1

Downpatrick

14:55 pm

Susie Miller  6/1

15:30 pm

Tick Tock 10/1

Leiscester 20:25 pm 

Marisitta 40/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Libby48

[Sporting Sam]

Chester 2.10

Copper knight.

Win

A stone under from last years win and drawn in a similar stall can make a bold bid again. Hasn't won since so will need to prove he retains ability but well placed to do so.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by sporting sam

[fd1972uk]

Would have made a decent opening treble.

[Bang on]

6.40 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 2/1 - From my tracker, for me this P.Nicholls runner hasn't really been busy, ridden at the back and taking the scenic route (extra furlong). Cheekpieces are added today and Harry Cobden takes the ride after others rode the last couple of runs. The only Nicholls runner at the course today where he has a 20% strike rate.

7.55 Leic - Mighty Gurkha - 5/1 EW ( with bet365 as they are paying 1/5 3 places in a 7 runner race). Is falling down the weights (13lbs in last 6 runs), and is starting to look well handicapped. Jockey Taylor Fisher takes off a further 5lbs making it a very attractive bet at 5/1 with 3 places.

[Sporting Sam]

Downpatrick 2.55

Ciankyle

Nuttridge

Both win

Both pounds in with wins off much higher marks.

[Nigwilliam]

Yk 340 Rousing Encore 50/1 skybet 7 pl. 

£10 ew. 

Lost.     I even posted in the wrong place  😄

Edited June 17, 2023 by Nigwilliam

[The Equaliser]

Have had 4 pts on the Daily 15

3.40 Yk Garner 0.50ew at 20/1 & Chasseral 0.50 ew at 22/1 7 places with Skybet

6 points staked today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Typical that my horse came 8th when I had it ew for 7 places.  Well done to Quinault, thoroughly deserved to win.

4.50 Yk Tropaz Power 1 pt win at 8.6 My PL Nap today.  I will feel a bit disappointed if Jewelmaker wins but mustn't back two as I did in the last race or else I could have my knuckles wrapped by @Zilzalian .  Where is @richard-westwood today when I needed him.  Hopefully on holiday again

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Got nothing today.  My nap got beat and came second.  - 7 points.  YTD = +49.31

Edited June 17, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Zilzalian]

40 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Have had 4 pts on the Daily 15

3.40 Yk Garner 0.50ew at 20/1 & Chasseral 0.50 ew at 22/1 7 places with Skybet

6 points staked today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Typical that my horse came 8th when I had it ew for 7 places.  Well done to Quinault, thoroughly deserved to win.

4.50 Yk Tropaz Power 1 pt win at 8.6 My PL Nap today.  I will feel a bit disappointed if Jewelmaker wins but mustn't back two as I did in the last race or else I could have my knuckles wrapped by @Zilzalian .  Where is @richard-westwood today when I needed him.  Hopefully on holiday again

Advice is free, just as you are free to ignore it.

[Villa Chris]

9 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.00 Hexham Well Educated 6/1 bog .  He’s only just in front of Glinger Flame on ratings.

5 points win 

First two were in the top 3 ratings but unfortunately my selection was way back

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +123.94

Nothing of interest until Tuesday now 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Villa Chris

[fd1972uk]

4 out of 7 so far and a place too, so good day indeed (did choose quinault in end).

Edited June 17, 2023 by fd1972uk

[The Equaliser]

32 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Advice is free, just as you are free to ignore it.

It saved me at least a point so it was good advice 🙂

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Have had 4 pts on the Daily 15

3.40 Yk Garner 0.50ew at 20/1 & Chasseral 0.50 ew at 22/1 7 places with Skybet

6 points staked today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Typical that my horse came 8th when I had it ew for 7 places.  Well done to Quinault, thoroughly deserved to win.

4.50 Yk Tropaz Power 1 pt win at 8.6 My PL Nap today.  I will feel a bit disappointed if Jewelmaker wins but mustn't back two as I did in the last race or else I could have my knuckles wrapped by @Zilzalian .  Where is @richard-westwood today when I needed him.  Hopefully on holiday again

I was stuck at work all day ....I'll have a good go at ascot ...some nice races to tackle (and I'm overdue a nice win ...so hoping its this week 🙏)

[Bang on]

5 hours ago, Bang on said:

6.40 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 2/1 - From my tracker, for me this P.Nicholls runner hasn't really been busy, ridden at the back and taking the scenic route (extra furlong). Cheekpieces are added today and Harry Cobden takes the ride after others rode the last couple of runs. The only Nicholls runner at the course today where he has a 20% strike rate.

7.55 Leic - Mighty Gurkha - 5/1 EW ( with bet365 as they are paying 1/5 3 places in a 7 runner race). Is falling down the weights (13lbs in last 6 runs), and is starting to look well handicapped. Jockey Taylor Fisher takes off a further 5lbs making it a very attractive bet at 5/1 with 3 places.

Dancingontheedge - lost disappointing

Mighty Gurkha - WON comfortably

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Dancingontheedge - lost disappointing

Mighty Gurkha - WON comfortably

I read that it made mistakes in its LTO race at the same venue and that put me off.  The same writer recommended Gina Force Ew.  We all know what happened there.  Great result with Mighty Gurkha though

[Sporting Sam]

Leicester 9pm

Grandfather Tom

Win

Has been in very good form and goes for a hat trick tonight.

Taylor fisher claiming five is a great help and grandfather Tom has won off higher marks in recent years.