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Tennis Tips - April 3 - April 9

CzechPunter
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@CzechPunterI know it's probably too late to get your opinion on this, but did you have any analysis for the Kuzmanov - Coria match in Marrakech? I don't think Coria should be lined that way considering his recent form? 

Kuzmanov is a strong clay court player, and difficult to deal with. Not only that but he has two matches under his belt here already in qualies, and I think in this situation that's a huge advantage that could push him over the mountain. 

Edited by money44
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Screw it.. I found something that I like the odds way more, and seems the same chance of winning.. Gonna pray that Kuzmanov loses, and pass on this one for now. I'll try to post it here when I decide to place real money. 

Edited by money44
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Sorry. I have changed my mind once more, and the second chance I was looking at is not something available, and turns out was probably going to lose anyways. 

I have seen some more video on Kuzmanov as well as Coria, and I believe this is a good chance. I see the match in the balance, and Dimitar is also serving well in the qualifications 65% and 67% first serves in his first two matches, and he's winning good % on his second serve also.. Yes, they could be lesser opponents but in my mind that is not super relevant, and I am trust my instincts for this. 

Dimitar Kuzmanov to beat Coria @ odds +210 with William Hill

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amity

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9 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@money44 are you sure you've thought enough about this? You're taking a pretty big risk.

I agree. Without wishing to sound preachy, if you're treating the betting as anything other than a fun hobby, then that's not a good sign. Sure, you can make a little bit of money on the side if you play your cards right, but you can also lose big if you get too eager. Don't force it. Otherwise you'll start to take on unwise bets and before you know you'll be down quite a bit of money. My policy is I take a look at what people are saying on here, contribute my own thoughts here and there, and then put on a tennis bet or two every second or third day, and that does me, Overall I'm probably more or less breaking even this last while, but I enjoy the process. That approach works for me. Not saying you should do the same, but there's a lot to be said sometimes for stepping back and taking a breather. 🙂

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20 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@money44 are you sure you've thought enough about this? You're taking a pretty big risk.

what are you even talking about bro .. I am crushing my bets.. You don't know what I'm risking.. I have the most money I've had in 10 years right now. You are telling me I"m betting too many underdogs, and yet I"m cashing 11/1 outright winners you don't even know about.. 

Give me some tennis analysis and not random robot talk please. If you do disagree with my bets thats fine, but tell me why.. I'm not looking to compete with you amigo.. I'm here to cooperate without ego's, and tear the bookies apart.  @four-leaf Yes I'm sure btw that the value is on Kuzmanov.. The match is a clear 50/50 chance in my opinion. 

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amity

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1 minute ago, money44 said:

what are you even talking about bro .. I am crushing my bets.. You don't know what I'm risking.. I have the most money I've had in 10 years right now. You are telling me I"m betting too many underdogs, and yet I"m cashing 11/1 outright winners you don't even know about.. 

Give me some tennis analysis and not random robot talk please. If you do disagree with my bets thats fine, but tell me why.. I'm not looking to compete with you amigo.. I'm here to cooperate without ego's, and tear the bookies apart.  @four-leaf Yes I'm sure btw that the value is on Kuzmanov.. The match is a clear 50/50 chance in my opinion. 

ok my dude, if it's working out for you then great, keep crushing it 😎

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13 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Dimitar Kuzmanov/Federico Coria over 21.5 games at 1.92 with Unibet

@money44 I really don't like you taking on Kuzmanov like you do expecting him to win so highly but if you say he's holding serve pretty well I think I'll go for this prematch bet.

Good Luck. I don't hate it.. It could be three sets.. I don't bet over unders.. I had bad experiences with this style of bet. I think it's profitable to take the over on two big servers with tennis. For this match.. It seems close but it doesn't qualify for me.. I don't have a strong opinion either way under or over, but it feels like a crapshoot to me. 

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15 minutes ago, money44 said:

what are you even talking about bro .. I am crushing my bets.. You don't know what I'm risking.. I have the most money I've had in 10 years right now. You are telling me I"m betting too many underdogs, and yet I"m cashing 11/1 outright winners you don't even know about.. 

Give me some tennis analysis and not random robot talk please. If you do disagree with my bets thats fine, but tell me why.. I'm not looking to compete with you amigo.. I'm here to cooperate without ego's, and tear the bookies apart.  @four-leaf Yes I'm sure btw that the value is on Kuzmanov.. The match is a clear 50/50 chance in my opinion. 

Kuzmanov is not exactly a household name and he's a true journeman on the tour for years now. He's 29 years old and never been in the top 150. And on ATP level I don't rate Kuzmanov at all. He's bound to go out today. His record of 4 of 5 clay wins on ATP level isn't telling the truth since all 4 of those wins came in Davis Cup against unimpressive opposition. He is yet to play a maindraw match on clay at ATP level so today marks his first so I belive you might be taking this a bit far ahead by saying it's 50/50.

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Marie Bouzkova to beat (-1.5 sets) Cristina Bucsa at 2.18 with Unibet

I'll take @CzechPunters bet on Bouzkova a step further and go for the sethandicap on Marie.

Tatjana Maria to beat (-1.5 sets) Katrina Scott at 1.78 with Unibet

Tatjana isn't exactly unimpressive these days but I've seen Katrina play last week facing Laura Pigossi and it wasn't pretty. Just the sight of this american 18 year old getting blown off the court by Pigossi makes this bet an easy choice.

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four-leaf

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I'm taking Bouzkova -1.5 sets back and cash-out and replace it with Bouzkova wins at 1.47 with Unibet. I also add over 20.5 games Emiliana Arango/Harmony Tan at 1.89 with Unibet.

Tan hasn't played much lately and even lost her last match and only on clay this season to Cagla Buyukacay in straight sets in a ITF in Spain. I think this match should go over the 20 games mark. They've met twice before, Tan won both but last one in 2020 went to a third set tie-break.

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Any opinions on the Dellien - Garin match in Estoril?

It's a close match between two south American players that sometimes go underrated. For me as I've mentioned I"m a fan of Christian Garin, and also Dellien somewhat to be fair. I don't think Garin can be trusted to win this match, and Dellien is more adjusted to clay court tennis right now. If you watch his final in Santiago three weeks ago.. He looks very fit, and is hitting the ball well.. I need to finish studying this. 

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Actually the Garin match is in Houston which is faster clay courts I would guess, and he is the former champion. I'm not sure how that changes my view of the match.  I might be back on later but four leaf.. you will need say a specific match, and I can tell you what I think.

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Being that Jule Niemeier is no form at all. I would be tempted to go on McNally as an underdog... She did have nice results in 2021 Charleston beating Sevastova and winning a set/match vs Rybakina who retired. I don't think Jule has good control over her shots, and also hasn't been serving well recently. I do expect her to get back in form later this year, but right now it's a circus going on. I was just really unimpressed watching one of her matches a couple weeks ago. I turned off the stream in a match I thought she had a chance of fighting in, and checked the score later to see that she was demolished. I believe this was against Blinkova in Miami. 

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Swami

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50 minutes ago, money44 said:

Actually the Garin match is in Houston which is faster clay courts I would guess, and he is the former champion. I'm not sure how that changes my view of the match.  I might be back on later but four leaf.. you will need say a specific match, and I can tell you what I think.

I was actually thinking about taking Garin here, he won the tournament in 2019 and last year he made the semis… he clearly likes the surface and has points to defend

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I’m tempted by Friedsam vs Gracheva, 2-1 in H2H, and the one won by Gracheva kind of a close match, Friedsam allready played 2 games of qualis ( not brilliantly, looks like) and Gracheva might be a little off after some very nice runs in the previous tournaments

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3 hours ago, Swami said:

I’m tempted by Friedsam vs Gracheva, 2-1 in H2H, and the one won by Gracheva kind of a close match, Friedsam allready played 2 games of qualis ( not brilliantly, looks like) and Gracheva might be a little off after some very nice runs in the previous tournaments

Sorry for late answer but now is the time to back Gracheva wherever she goes early on in every tournament especially when facing a player like Friedsam who she's just figured out and beaten for the first time. So today Gracheva achieved her full current potential and finally ran over the german veteran. Gracheva is much better right now while Friedsam hasn't been good enough for any deep runs in WTA maindraws. Coming back is hard for Friedsam while Gracheva is still just 22 years old and has elevated her game to new heights.

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5 hours ago, Swami said:

I was actually thinking about taking Garin here, he won the tournament in 2019 and last year he made the semis… he clearly likes the surface and has points to defend

Good call for sure.. Looks like it was one sided... I initially thought the match was in EStoril, and if it was.. I would have bet Dellien and probably lost for sure.. Sorry for the confusion about the locations tho.. Garin is much better on faster surfaces than Dellien, and I am not even 100% sure Houston is much faster but pretty confident it is.. Estoril is known for being one of slower ATP 250 clay courts from what I remember. I guess everything is comparable, but I would guess that Estoril plays something similar to Rome.. I haven't placed any tennis bets today other than my stake that was cancelled on Kuzmanov.. I was really excited to watch that match. I"m going to watch some live video on these guys now .. a bit of research for future matches.

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Alexandrova vs. Putintseva @ 1.68

Alexandrova made the semis in Charleston last year and apparently she is in a good run... Putintseva, I saw her playing against Svitolina, who was clearly out of shape after all these months of inactivity, I'm not sure those dropshots will work against such an aggressive opponent, and I also expect Alexandrova to break her serve a lot. If the russian will manage to limit the UE she can make it in my opinion

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7 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Not really interested in anything today, but watching Thiem sure is painful these days, even on clay.

He actually played well in his last match. Even tho it was against a challanger player like Ofner. He was aggresive as he never was in his previous matches and his forehand looks better. Seems like he is not scared of the injury now. I tried betting on him a couple of times but he looked poor. I hope he will wave off the injury and come back strong as before as his style of play is beautiful. 

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