DAILY LUCKY 15

[LEE-GRAYS]

Ok now I have the 1st 3 horses in bet till next Saturday let the money roll in @Carole-dawney

[Villa Chris]

Haydock 3.30 Twilight Calls 9/2

Chester 4.05 Boardman 6/1

Haydock 4.45 Persuasion 9/4

York 5.00 Cruyff Turn 7/1

5.25 Staked potential returns 695.80 

[Craig bluenose]

Let's go Blue

[Craig bluenose]

[The Equaliser]

On 5/25/2023 at 9:07 PM, Zilzalian said:

😄

I have said elsewhere i would challenge anyone to get 4 favs in (excluding odds on) ermmm 4p profit for a treb?????? Are you really that desperate lol shudda cashed out Leeboy must have been nearly a quid. havin said that @The Equaliser would have done that each way and got a result.

I'll take up your challenge, and it won't be each way

[LEE-GRAYS]

[BBBC]

2 from me today ew using extra places

long shots

1335 York Island Bandit

1350 Haydock Reshoun

1440 York Copper Knight

1530 Haydock Equilateral 

York special

1335 York La Maquina

1440 York Chipstead

1515 York Typewriter

1700 York Bopedro

 

[MCLARKE]

TV Lucky 15s

[The Equaliser]

L15 Fav @Zilzalianchallenge

1.50 Hd Law Of the Sea (WB) 7/4

2.25 Hd Covey (FD) 2/1

2.35 Gd Indispensable (TM) 11/8

6.40 Sal Leadenhall (RH/RB) 6/4

1 X 0.20 l15 = 3.00 Poss Ret 35.23, 1 x 1.0 w acca poss ret 48.98 = total 84.21= 4 pts staked

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

L15 Fav @Zilzalianchallenge

1.50 Hd Law Of the Sea (WB) 7/4

2.25 Hd Covey (FD) 2/1

2.35 Gd Indispensable (TM) 11/8

6.40 Sal Leadenhall (RH/RB) 6/4

1 X 0.20 l15 = 3.00 Poss Ret 35.23, 1 x 1.0 w acca poss ret 48.98 = total 84.21= 4 pts staked

personally i would do just the 75p trebles and 75p acca on those sorts of prices for around 3 quid

[MCLARKE]

37 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

personally i would do just the 75p trebles and 75p acca on those sorts of prices for around 3 quid

But then you miss the bonus which is the whole point of using lucky 15s

[harry_rag]

26 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

But then you miss the bonus which is the whole point of using lucky 15s

At those sort of prices you pretty much eradicate the value anyway. One winner at double the odds gets you a little bit of your stake back. Demonstrably not worth it and the wrong way to utilise L15 (as an ongoing strategy at least). Maybe if you have a significant edge at that price point and lose for fun at bigger prices but, as the Z-Man says, barely worth bothering with the singles and doubles when perming those prices, L15 bonus or not.

[Zilzalian]

34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

But then you miss the bonus which is the whole point of using lucky 15s

No point doing Lucky 15's at those prices in my opinion. I see lots of people doing on here what i used to do/mistakes i made 20 years ago so lots to learn for some i think.

[Villa Chris]

47 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

No point doing Lucky 15's at those prices in my opinion. I see lots of people doing on here what i used to do/mistakes i made 20 years ago so lots to learn for some i think.

What’s minimum price in your opinion ? 

[harry_rag]

40 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

What’s minimum price in your opinion ? 

Coming at it from a theory angle I'd have said average odds of 7/1 or more. At the short odds in question here it's more a case of not worth doing the singles or doubles full stop because they return less than your total stake. If you need 3 selections to make a profit then you might as well just bet on trebles and up.

I guess it's personal preference but, for me, I don't like to do a perm bet where the minimum return isn't at least my money back. A bet that returns a fraction of the outlay seems a waste of time and an inefficient use of the stake.

[BBBC]

5 hours ago, BBBC said:

2 from me today ew using extra places

long shots

1335 York Island Bandit

1350 Haydock Reshoun

1440 York Copper Knight

1530 Haydock Equilateral 

York special

1335 York La Maquina

1440 York Chipstead

1515 York Typewriter

1700 York Bopedro

 

1 place on the first.

1 winner and 3 places on the York special returned over £50 for 1 10pew lucky 15 and 25p ew acca

[MCLARKE]

21 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Coming at it from a theory angle I'd have said average odds of 7/1 or more. At the short odds in question here it's more a case of not worth doing the singles or doubles full stop because they return less than your total stake. If you need 3 selections to make a profit then you might as well just bet on trebles and up.

I guess it's personal preference but, for me, I don't like to do a perm bet where the minimum return isn't at least my money back. A bet that returns a fraction of the outlay seems a waste of time and an inefficient use of the stake.

The point of the lucky 15 is that it gives you a bonus at all odds levels. Therefore in the long term you will always be better off using the lucky 15 rather than just betting singles / accas.

At 2/1 the benefit of the bonus is 6%.

So assuming you lose 3% at LSP (which in itself is good) then this would become a gain of 3%.

I agree that at longer odds the benefit of the bonus is higher (at 20/1 it is 23%) but the problem is that for most of us it is difficult to reduce the loss significantly at LSP to make an overall profit. My records back this up so far, at odds above 8/1 I have had 3 wins from 124 selections with a LSP of -85 (-68%).  At odds of 8/1 or below the loss is -1%, the bonus would turn this into a reasonable profit of c. 11%.

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Haydock 3.30 Twilight Calls 9/2

Chester 4.05 Boardman 6/1

Haydock 4.45 Persuasion 9/4

York 5.00 Cruyff Turn 7/1

5.25 Staked potential returns 695.80 

One winner Boardman 6/1 loss on the day of 70p 

 

Flats lucky 15 Start date 17th May 2023 - 15.45

•  

[harry_rag]

49 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The point of the lucky 15 is that it gives you a bonus at all odds levels. Therefore in the long term you will always be better off using the lucky 15 rather than just betting singles / accas.

I’m not sure that’s true, if you’ve got a positive edge at these sort of odds (e.g. anytime goalscorers at similar odds with, say, a 10% edge) I think trebles would multiply your edge to an extent that it would outstrip the bonus of double odds for only one winner. The main problem there is lining up best prices with a single firm.

I suppose I could put it on the to do list to run my goalscorer system bets through as L15 with bonus v trebles. I know what will provide the best return though! 

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I’m not sure that’s true, if you’ve got a positive edge at these sort of odds (e.g. anytime goalscorers at similar odds with, say, a 10% edge) I think trebles would multiply your edge to an extent that it would outstrip the bonus of double odds for only one winner. The main problem there is lining up best prices with a single firm.

I suppose I could put it on the to do list to run my goalscorer system bets through as L15 with bonus v trebles. I know what will provide the best return though!

I doubt that anybody has a 10% edge on horse racing betting with traditional bookmakers, I suspect that most of us would do well to breakeven. 

 

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I doubt that anybody has a 10% edge on horse racing betting with traditional bookmakers, I suspect that most of us would do well to breakeven. 

 

The difference between us is I’m obviously a much more glass half full kind of guy! 
Fair enough though I suspect you could chase the edge down a fair bit and still be better off playing trebles than L15 at the price point in question.

There’s also the angle of the best way for someone to bet who is a slightly negative return punter. Maybe give yourself a better shout of an exciting win when it goes well rather than worrying about getting a bit of your stake back when you hit one winner.

My opinion is that there are better ways to stake 4 short priced selections than a L15 whether you’re Larry Loser, Barry Break-Even or Peter Profit!

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

What’s minimum price in your opinion ? 

Well you can have a fav in there if you want but you must have others around 16/1 give or take, nothing wrong with fav, fav, 10/1 16/1. (there are enough of them win daily just a case of picking the right ones) Thing is i see a few missing the basic point which is pick horses not odds. Lets use the 40p L15 stake which is £6 as an example. If you fancy just one horse tomorrow just do a single to six quid, If you fancy 2 then 2 £2 singles and a £2 double, if you see 4 with potential do a quick mental calculation even 4 at 4/1 is over 500 quid there are no rules really, I base mine on the lowest price being 7/1 which is your money back with double the odds everything thereafter is a bonus. Lucky 15 if utilised right is a good way to spend £6. I have said elsewhere your aiming for winners the more the better. Aim for 4 and you wont be happy often if ever, since November i have hit above £1,000 three times from a treble and a loser one of those was a 20pew lucky 15. I would suggest the 15% bonus for getting all 4 needn't be considered in my opinion personally i never even give it a thought, lots will disagree with me and that fair enough, just be happy if your lucky enough to get all four. Don't forget there is no bonus for your place part of the bet. @harry_rag seems to get it, others seem to be trying to shoe horn 4 winners into a bet. if you wouldn't bet it as a single then seems daft to put it in a lucky 15. This is all  Just my opinion others have their own. I have posted enough evidence on here last few years showing my perspectives work.

[Zilzalian]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

L15 Fav @Zilzalianchallenge

1.50 Hd Law Of the Sea (WB) 7/4

2.25 Hd Covey (FD) 2/1

2.35 Gd Indispensable (TM) 11/8

6.40 Sal Leadenhall (RH/RB) 6/4

1 X 0.20 l15 = 3.00 Poss Ret 35.23, 1 x 1.0 w acca poss ret 48.98 = total 84.21= 4 pts staked

1 from 4 eh?

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, BBBC said:

1 place on the first.

1 winner and 3 places on the York special returned over £50 for 1 10pew lucky 15 and 25p ew acca

Unlucky with typewriter left too much do do

[LEE-GRAYS]

12 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Ok now I have the 1st 3 horses in bet till next Saturday let the money roll in @Carole-dawney

Cashed out last race £13.47 had nicker e/w lost on last 

day 8 

out £48.40 in £47.51 

nearly evens 7 days to go 

[The Equaliser]

51 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Unlucky with typewriter left too much do do

Not bad mate. 3pts out and 1.40 returned with 1 winner, therefore 1.60 loss.  This is on a bad day 🙃

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

L15 Fav @Zilzalianchallenge

1.50 Hd Law Of the Sea (WB) 7/4

2.25 Hd Covey (FD) 2/1

2.35 Gd Indispensable (TM) 11/8

6.40 Sal Leadenhall (RH/RB) 6/4

1 X 0.20 l15 = 3.00 Poss Ret 35.23, 1 x 1.0 w acca poss ret 48.98 = total 84.21= 4 pts staked

RESULTS UPDATE

Just 1 winner today so 1.40 returned.  Hence a loss of 1.60 c/fwd.  I will not include Accas in these results to avoid confusion

I will include b/fwd L15 losses/profits though.  = -34.87 c/fwd on all L15 type bets including Accas listed here

Edited May 27, 2023 by The Equaliser

[LEE-GRAYS]

Try another around the world in 18hrs start with Aussie 

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Try another around the world in 18hrs start with Aussie 

One winner on to japan

[LEE-GRAYS]

Japan