DAILY LUCKY 15

[Craig bluenose]

[Craig bluenose]

Going for Bolgers 

I like trainers who do well at certain meetings !

[MCLARKE]

 

[tonythepaint]

6 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Bet 32

Red 3.30 Dee See Are 11/2

Red 4.00 Cinque Verde 10/3 Nr

Red 5.40 Gallaeus 5/6

Win 7.35 Reina Del Mar 4/1

10p L15 with B365

Replace with Lady Ava 6.05 Windsor

New odds 11/1,6/1,4/6,5/1

[MCLARKE]

[Zilzalian]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yes that is based on my selections. It is only a small sample size so the conclusions may change over time.

I will continue to make selections covering all odds ranges but I may have an extra L15 on selections between 11/4 - 15/2.

If I had stuck to this odds range then I wouldn't have pricked the last 2 horses when I had my big win on GN day.

As I have said before we are all different and you and several others are very good at picking longer priced horses. 

It would be interesting to know if others had analysed their results by odds range to see what their conclusions are.

Considering Your grand national win L15 what conclusions if any did you draw from that?

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

Considering Your grand national win L15 what conclusions if any did you draw from that?

The L15 is a good fun bet and I was very lucky on the day

Since then I've realised that the L15 is probably the best way to bet if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers

[andymac]

Posted May 11

Southwell 1.50   Little Edi   11.00    Lost 3rd

Southwell 5.43   Golden Keeper   5.00    Won

Huntingdon 2.50   Somekindofstar   7.00    Lost  6th

Huntingdon 4.00   Denable   7.00    Lost 5th

 

15 x 0.10 E/W Lucky 15             Potential return £754.75p

Won 80p    Lost £2.20p

Running total -£4.28p

Apologies for the delay in updating but just returned from Holiday.

[harry_rag]

52 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Considering Your grand national win L15 what conclusions if any did you draw from that?

If you’re going to find 4 winners in one day put them in the same L15! 

[Zilzalian]

31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The L15 is a good fun bet and I was very lucky on the day

Since then I've realised that the L15 is probably the best way to bet if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers

Well my conclusion of your result was similar to mine and is well worth remembering. That is that your grand national day selections were from a pool of horses where every runner was trying in every race, my best or i should say most consistent results come in pattern races where almost all are trying, Royal Ascot will be a very good time to do a lucky 15 not just per day but across the days (to do this you must know your horses, no use pin sticking). My advice to you or anyone else would be to do just one lucky 15 on your average day to day races throughout the season in the hope you get lucky and many in the festival races where your skill at selecting and knowledge of the horses will count for more. For the pinstickers i would suggest at ascot or festivals you choose 4 of the @The Brigadier selections from his write ups preferably the bigger prices. For even bigger prices i suggest you chuck one or two @richard-westwood selections in there.

[andymac]

Brighton 2.23   Arzaak   10/1

Brighton 3.23   Major Gatsby   10/1

Brighton 3.53   Largo Bay   11/1

Brighton  4.53   Poetic Force   11/1

 

15 x 0.10 E/W Lucky 15          Potential return £2,461.62p

[tonythepaint]

17 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Replace with Lady Ava 6.05 Windsor

New odds 11/1,6/1,4/6,5/1

Running total -£20.65

[tonythepaint]

Bet 33

Wol 4.10 Star Child 20/1

Bri 5.26 Voodoo Ray 6/1

Hex 7.20 Didtheyleaveuoutto 7/1

Hex 8.50 Lord Caprio 10/1

10p L15 with B365

[LEE-GRAYS]

£1.44 back yesterday 1 winner another one for Carole 

day 3 

out £18.60 in £7.00

todays picks some outsiders today

 

 

[Craig bluenose]

[Craig bluenose]

[justanotherpunter]

22 hours ago, justanotherpunter said:

Redcar       3.30    Dee See Are                  15/2ew    4pl
Redcar       5.05    Eight Mile                      12/1ew    4pl
Redcar       5.40    Edwina Sheeran             8/1ew    
Windsor    7.35    Lexington Knight          17/2ew  
£3.00 Lucky15
pot returns £1,416.75

Redcar       3.30    Dee See Are                  15/2ew    4pl---lost
Redcar       5.05    Eight Mile                      12/1ew    4pl---lost
Redcar       5.40    Edwina Sheeran             8/1ew    ------4th dht
Windsor    7.35    Lexington Knight          17/2ew  --------2nd 7/1
lost £2.73

[MCLARKE]

[The Equaliser]

3.10 Wolv Island Luck 13/2

4.30 Hunt Scarpia 15/2

4.40 Wolv Dame Laura Knight 8/1

6.20 Hex Kopa Kilana 13/2

1 x 0.10 L15 & 0.50 ew acca = poss ret 2855.04 = 2.50 stakes

[MCLARKE]

20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well my conclusion of your result was similar to mine and is well worth remembering. That is that your grand national day selections were from a pool of horses where every runner was trying in every race, my best or i should say most consistent results come in pattern races where almost all are trying, Royal Ascot will be a very good time to do a lucky 15 not just per day but across the days (to do this you must know your horses, no use pin sticking). My advice to you or anyone else would be to do just one lucky 15 on your average day to day races throughout the season in the hope you get lucky and many in the festival races where your skill at selecting and knowledge of the horses will count for more. For the pinstickers i would suggest at ascot or festivals you choose 4 of the @The Brigadier selections from his write ups preferably the bigger prices. For even bigger prices i suggest you chuck one or two @richard-westwood selections in there.

My selections for Aintree were based on my statistics for the festival which held up quite well. Hopefully my Ascot analysis will prove successful.

Overall my selections have been pretty rubbish on here. I have 2 methods, most are based on the current systems I am running but for the TV selections I use a much more basic method based on the odds. This basic method is performing much better than my system selections with a loss of 4% compared to 24%.

I would expect the performance of my system selections to improve over the course of a season to be showing a small profit (at BSP).

 

[harry_rag]

On 5/22/2023 at 12:16 AM, MCLARKE said:

2/1 - 7/2      -3%

4/1 - 5/1      6%

11/2 - 17/2  3%

> 17/2         -56%

A similar conclusion, the mid range odds produce the best returns

These figures are very rough (guessing the average odds based on the midrange and taking a wild guess for >17/2) and are caveated by me forgetting exactly how the bloody spreadsheet worked but these are ballpark indications based on the price and edge.

Q1 - The L15 would turn your negative ROI into around +3.5% overall but -14.4% in a year where you didn't hit a fourfold.
Q2 - 28.6% overall and 14.4% with no fourtimer.

Q3 - 24.5% overall and 10.9% with no fourtimer.

Q4 - Pretty much -70% either way based on assumed average odds of 16/1 (you're losing so badly that the bonus is cancelled out by the extent to which your ROI multiplies the bookies edge)

Conclusion, you really want the biggest odds possible (with due regard to the strike rate) to make the most of the "one winner" bonus. Note the similar overall ROI for Q2 & 3 despite your returns being 6% and 3%. The bigger odds makes up for the poorer strike rate.

Q1 would "only" reach 17.4% even if your ROI was +3% rather than minus.

Conclusion - not really worth it at shorter odds. The bigger the odds the better even if the ROI for the singles is slightly worse.

[Zilzalian]

29 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

These figures are very rough (guessing the average odds based on the midrange and taking a wild guess for >17/2) and are caveated by me forgetting exactly how the bloody spreadsheet worked but these are ballpark indications based on the price and edge.

Q1 - The L15 would turn your negative ROI into around +3.5% overall but -14.4% in a year where you didn't hit a fourfold.
Q2 - 28.6% overall and 14.4% with no fourtimer.

Q3 - 24.5% overall and 10.9% with no fourtimer.

Q4 - Pretty much -70% either way based on assumed average odds of 16/1 (you're losing so badly that the bonus is cancelled out by the extent to which your ROI multiplies the bookies edge)

Conclusion, you really want the biggest odds possible (with due regard to the strike rate) to make the most of the "one winner" bonus. Note the similar overall ROI for Q2 & 3 despite your returns being 6% and 3%. The bigger odds makes up for the poorer strike rate.

Q1 would "only" reach 17.4% even if your ROI was +3% rather than minus.

Conclusion - not really worth it at shorter odds. The bigger the odds the better even if the ROI for the singles is slightly worse.

Yep your analysis seems about right to me, My bigger wins revolve more around getting the treble than the fourfold which is pretty difficult to get (i have had 1 since November but that included a NR which voids the 15% bonus) even backing favs. I would challenge anyone to pick 4 favs (not inc odds on) a day and see how often they get 4/4.

[harry_rag]

20 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Yep your analysis seems about right to me, My bigger wins revolve more around getting the treble than the fourfold which is pretty difficult to get (i have had 1 since November but that included a NR which voids the 15% bonus) even backing favs. I would challenge anyone to pick 4 favs (not inc odds on) a day and see how often they get 4/4.

I think there's a lot to be said for your approach in terms of just one a day most of the time but ramped up for the quality racing when there's more chance of finding some decent horses at generous prices that you can be sure will be trying.

[tonythepaint]

23 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Bet 33

Wol 4.10 Star Child 20/1

Bri 5.26 Voodoo Ray 6/1

Hex 7.20 Didtheyleaveuoutto 7/1

Hex 8.50 Lord Caprio 10/1

10p L15 with B365

Running total -£22.15

[tonythepaint]

Bet 34

Ayr 2.20 Sovereign Nation 9/2

Ayr 4.00 Wadacre Grace 14/1

Ayr 5.00 Knightswood 16/1

Kempton 6.10 Pointofblue 10/1

10p L15 with B365

Going to do 100 bets and see if I can improve. If not I'll be knocking the lucky 15's on the head. Can't pick 1 winner at the moment, let alone 4.😂

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 minutes ago, tonythepaint said:

Bet 34

Ayr 2.20 Sovereign Nation 9/2

Ayr 4.00 Wadacre Grace 14/1

Ayr 5.00 Knightswood 16/1

Kempton 6.10 Pointofblue 10/1

10p L15 with B365

Going to do 100 bets and see if I can improve. If not I'll be knocking the lucky 15's on the head. Can't pick 1 winner at the moment, let alone 4.😂

Same here after great month last 2 weeks been bad 😢

[LEE-GRAYS]

[LEE-GRAYS]

22 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

£1.44 back yesterday 1 winner another one for Carole 

day 3 

out £18.60 in £7.00

todays picks some outsiders today

 

 

£1.40 back 

out £24.80 in £8.40

carole had 2winners 2 placed me 1 place 😢after 4 days 

[LEE-GRAYS]

Mine and Carole’s lucky31 day 5 Carole top3 🐎 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Going to do 100 bets and see if I can improve. If not I'll be knocking the lucky 15's on the head. Can't pick 1 winner at the moment, let alone 4.😂

I think with lucky 15s you need patience because it could be a few hundred bets before you hit the big one.

I was fortunate in that my big win came at the start of my L15 bets, since then I'm over £100 down but still up £800 overall.

I was initially very sceptical about L15s but I am now convinced that if you are betting with the traditional bookies it is a better bet than the win single.