DAILY LUCKY 15

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Marbuzet was 6/1 4th in the market and Titanium Moon was 2nd favourite.  The rules are L15's with favourites but not odds on.   Got stuck with the earlier races.  Missed Tom Marquand's As IF By chance in the 1.30 Windsor  and Ratatoute Yutty in the 1.35 Hunt so I felt a bit miffed.  Put me off for the rest of the day.  Hence no Fav L15 today.  Running total = -3.82 after two goes.  Tricky stuff.  I hope that I can improve a bit

I just can't see how you are going to stop the loses if you just carry on doing what your doing. Put it this way if you had copied @MCLARKE to 10p stake total £6 or 6 points you would have won over £300 today. he will get another pretty soon if things pan out as they usually do, you get a few and then go cold for a while.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Zilzalian

[yossa6133]

Going Notts tomorrow so thought I would join in. Miracle if this does any good but here goes.

Edited May 29, 2023 by yossa6133

[LEE-GRAYS]

11 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Mine and Carole’s lucky 31

1 winner 2 places £18.20 back

 out £60.80 in £66.71 

 In profit at last 4 days to go 💰👍

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zico10 said:

You're first Leicester L15 will have returned you a nice tickle! Well done. 

Yep a very good day with the L15s returning £396.33 to a £6 total stake.

It does support @Zilzalian's advice but I'll keep building up my data and see what conclusions I come to.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I just can't see how you are going to stop the loses if you just carry on doing what your doing. Put it this way if you had copied @MCLARKE to 10p stake total £6 or 6 points you would have won over £300 today. he will get another pretty soon if things pan out as they usually do, you get a few and then go cold for a while.

The favourites challenge is just a bit of fun.  My main L15 will have "Players" in them i.e horses ranked between 3/1 - 9/1. Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's.  The question is which one to follow? I dread to think how much members have been spending on all these L15's.  Some, must be losing quite a bit

[MCLARKE]

44 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

The favourites challenge is just a bit of fun.  My main L15 will have "Players" in them i.e horses ranked between 3/1 - 9/1. Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's.  The question is which one to follow? I dread to think how much members have been spending on all these L15's.  Some, must be losing quite a bit

Out £280.50

In £1,520.27

Profit £1,239.77

[The Equaliser]

22 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Out £280.50

In £1,520.27

Profit £1,239.77

Very well done Michael.  Long may you reign over us.  As a matter of interest was the best chances of a L15 within odds ranges of 5/2 to 15/2, or something like that?

[Zilzalian]

53 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Out £280.50

In £1,520.27

Profit £1,239.77

And i am now well over £3,000 up in 2023 @The Equaliser the thing with @MCLARKE he has an open mind he takes on board things that are said so the more he learns the more he adjusts he has no fear of admitting wrong think for want of a better expression i have been very impressed with his outlook and by that i mean i am impressed with the "journey" right back from his starting position re L15's to where he is now, i think it is fair to say he took the trouble to question his previous assumptions, put them aside for a while and formulate new ideas and test them. I wouldn't mind betting he has had lots of fun out of this and not much to do with the money. To me this site is all about sharing knowledge a bit of brinkmanship, a bit of banter and helping others better understand betting. In my opinion many can learn so much reading through this thread from page one to the present. Just taking the interactions between @MCLARKE and @harry_rag and dare i say it @Zilzalian if nothing else is very interesting and informative. @LEE-GRAYS is the epitome of "i dont give a fcuk" and has a good laugh while observing and picking stuff up and using it which seems to work for him quite well, i could mention a few others who have contributed to the debate they know who they are and it all makes for a good wedge of useful knowledge that is quite valuable and it is all given freely.

[Villa Chris]

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

How come you have two lucky 15s at Leicester using mostly the same horses? 

[Villa Chris]

Said it before I’ll say it again this site is a gold mine for punters, and the best thing about it it’s all free. Next best thing to being able to get free money out of a cash machine if used right. 

[MCLARKE]

13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

How come you have two lucky 15s at Leicester using mostly the same horses? 

I basically work through te day's racing in time order and when I come to the end I am often left with 1,2 or 3 horses so to put them into a lucky 15 I add 1 or more of my previous selections. They are not better bets, I tend to pick them for convenience.

So yesterday I had 13 selections and was left with a selection in the 5.55 at Leicester so to include it in a lucky 15 I included 3 other Leicester selections as I already had the Leicester card open (I picked the 3 shortest out of the 4, I should have followed @Zilzalian's advice and gone with the 3 longest, I would have won another £359).

[MCLARKE]

22 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Said it before I’ll say it again this site is a gold mine for punters, and the best thing about it it’s all free. Next best thing to being able to get free money out of a cash machine if used right. 

Indeed, I woulddn't have made any money with lucky 15s if it wasn't for the discussions on here.

The ideal starting point for most is to carefully utilise all free bets and offers, I used these for my daughter and it paid for a Caribbean holiday for her.

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

And i am now well over £3,000 up in 2023 @The Equaliser the thing with @MCLARKE he has an open mind he takes on board things that are said so the more he learns the more he adjusts he has no fear of admitting wrong think for want of a better expression i have been very impressed with his outlook and by that i mean i am impressed with the "journey" right back from his starting position re L15's to where he is now, i think it is fair to say he took the trouble to question his previous assumptions, put them aside for a while and formulate new ideas and test them.

Yes, I am on the way to one of my best years as a result of the lucky 15s.

To me the key area is to test my theories before putting my money down, I find the testing often as much fun as the actual betting.

It is also important not to become disillusioned with losing runs, it is a fact of betting life. I was £700 down in the 4 months to December but have made £3,000 since then.

Keep stakes small until you are making a profit and then use your profit to increase stakes.

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very well done Michael.  Long may you reign over us.  As a matter of interest was the best chances of a L15 within odds ranges of 5/2 to 15/2, or something like that?

It was although I need to update my analysis based on the additional results since then

[tonythepaint]

Bet 36

Lei 3.00 Chorus Line 13/2

Red 3.50 Iatos Angel 5/1

Lei 4.30 Fitzroy River 22/1

Ling 8.10 Overnight Oats 7/1

10p L15 with B365

Can't keep away 

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I basically work through te day's racing in time order and when I come to the end I am often left with 1,2 or 3 horses so to put them into a lucky 15 I add 1 or more of my previous selections. They are not better bets, I tend to pick them for convenience.

So yesterday I had 13 selections and was left with a selection in the 5.55 at Leicester so to include it in a lucky 15 I included 3 other Leicester selections as I already had the Leicester card open (I picked the 3 shortest out of the 4, I should have followed @Zilzalian's advice and gone with the 3 longest, I would have won another £359).

First paragraph describes exactly what i do.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yes, I am on the way to one of my best years as a result of the lucky 15s.

To me the key area is to test my theories before putting my money down, I find the testing often as much fun as the actual betting.

It is also important not to become disillusioned with losing runs, it is a fact of betting life. I was £700 down in the 4 months to December but have made £3,000 since then.

Keep stakes small until you are making a profit and then use your profit to increase stakes.

The next decision is Stakes which have been touched on before, my perspective is based on practicality and experience-that is the long losing runs can be quite expensive although you pick up the odd singles and doubles, so i came to the conclusion and it doesn't matter how rich you are that 40p  is the maximum 98% of the time irrespective of how many you do as long as you can afford it, if not 10p 20p 30p The oldies reckon you should not bet more than 5% of your weekly income which seems sensible to me ( @MCLARKE treble would have returned just under £1,200 a good result for anyone) My big worry/consideration is loss of account if you are successful over time. I assume the bookies can cope/accept a few thousand in loses now and again but up your stakes to a quid or more and those wins will get the attention of the "noseys" One good piece of advice i will put out there "Always remember there is a big difference between having a bet and gambling" one is fun the other is misery.

[Carole-dawney]

On 5/27/2023 at 8:11 AM, LEE-GRAYS said:

Ok now I have the 1st 3 horses in bet till next Saturday let the money roll in @Carole-dawney

YeA it does with me!!

[LEE-GRAYS]

Now in profit so nearly a free day today in the lucky 31 challenge 💰👍

[LEE-GRAYS]

My offering cashed out on yesterday’s  £11.88 last one lost

[LEE-GRAYS]

 One more 🤞

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

The next decision is Stakes which have been touched on before, my perspective is based on practicality and experience-that is the long losing runs can be quite expensive although you pick up the odd singles and doubles, so i came to the conclusion and it doesn't matter how rich you are that 40p  is the maximum 98% of the time irrespective of how many you do as long as you can afford it, if not 10p 20p 30p The oldies reckon you should not bet more than 5% of your weekly income which seems sensible to me ( @MCLARKE treble would have returned just under £1,200 a good result for anyone) My big worry/consideration is loss of account if you are successful over time. I assume the bookies can cope/accept a few thousand in loses now and again but up your stakes to a quid or more and those wins will get the attention of the "noseys" One good piece of advice i will put out there "Always remember there is a big difference between having a bet and gambling" one is fun the other is misery.

The losing runs can be quite large, between my Aintree win and yesterday's win I lost £67 to £1.50 stakes although this was only £1.52 per day so not too prohibitive.

It is a relatively small outlay for a lot of fun and the occasional big win.

I am surprised I haven't had more restrictions with BET365, I am waiting for the dreaded "account has been reviewed by our trading team" message.

I am not overly concerned as most of my betting is on the exchanges these days and ultimately I expect I will end up with the exchanges as the only option. At least this will simplify my betting and generally the best value is to be found on the exchanges.

[MCLARKE]

[The Equaliser]

1 x 0.10 L15 and 0.50 Accca

4.00 Leic She's a Mirage 4/1

4.10 Bri Sir WInston 9/2

4.40 Bri Geralt of Rivia 7/2

5.05 Leic Rain Cloud 9/1

Poss ret 773.05 2 pts staked

[Zilzalian]

@The Equaliser yesterday you said this.

"The favourites challenge is just a bit of fun.  My main L15 will have "Players" in them i.e horses ranked between 3/1 - 9/1. Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's.  The question is which one to follow? I dread to think how much members have been spending on all these L15's.  Some, must be losing quite a bit"

Yesterday Micheal spent 6points today 7.5 points correct me if i am wrong, today with your lucky 15 you have spent 7points.

So here is the questions you should ask your self. what are the possible returns on his investment compared to yours given this is what you posted on chat "3.50 Red Nakano 1 pt win at 6.8 and cover bet of 1 pt on Zarga at 2.86 for 0.84 profit".

Micheal has spent 7.5 points today if he doesn't get one winner he will have lost £7.50 lets return later to see what his returns actually are it my well be a loss but how many chances does his bets have to turn a profit (by my reckoning he only needs 1 double) compared to your bets?

"Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's." this is the key line in your flawed thinking. He is spending "profits" think about that for a while. What are you spending? Like i said previously I just cant see how it is possible to stop your loses they will just grow and grow if you carry on with what your doing.

Footnote- you just backed 2 losers in 1 race.

[Zilzalian]

20 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Going Notts tomorrow so thought I would join in. Miracle if this does any good but here goes.

cant argue with your reasoning with these selections but i do like back from dubai in the 825 so i think a forecast is on here 😀

[harry_rag]

8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It is a relatively small outlay for a lot of fun and the occasional big win.

Would I be correct in thinking that, at the moment, your selections would be profitable to level stakes singles?

You've had an enormous dollop of good fortune if not! 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Would I be correct in thinking that, at the moment, your selections would be profitable to level stakes singles?

You've had an enormous dollop of good fortune if not!

Believe it or not up until Monday my selections in the lucky 15s have been very poor with a level stakes loss of 98 points from 472 selections. However I was not overly concerned because the systems that these selections have been drawn from have been profitable.

So depending on how you look it I have been very lucky or my previous seletions had been unlucky and I was due a change in fortune.

[harry_rag]

Definitely a degree of good fortune with how the winners have clustered if you’re down to LS singles. It’s the one winner bonus that can turn a loss into a small profit but the doubles and trebles can only multiply your edge if you’ve got one. You’ve got to be in it to win it though!

Maybe it’s just May madness. My anytime system has returned a 40% ROI this month which is unusually high and you’re going to see far greater variance than me given I’m backing singles around the 2/1 to 3/1 mark.

[yossa6133]

On 5/29/2023 at 9:29 PM, yossa6133 said:

Going Notts tomorrow so thought I would join in. Miracle if this does any good but here goes.

It was a good start with the ex French horse somehow poking her nose in front from an unpromising position...but quickly went down hill. Couple of them slowly away and none of them landed a blow. Had the winner in singles online at 12/1 and on track at 8/1 so actually made a profit despite only one being any good. Re-did the lucky 15 in the morning for BOG and came out with £10.24 for a small loss. Notts races was cold and windy 😑

Edited May 30, 2023 by yossa6133