The Brigadier Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 With the ground riding good Ed Chamberlain and the team are at Cheltenham for the final day of the Paddy Power meeting with the Greatwood Hurdle the feature race. There’s also the added bonus of the Southern National from Fontwell where the ground is likely to ride on the soft side. Here’s my thoughts on the five races. Cheltenham 1.45 Only five have declared for the two mile Shloer Chase and in all fairness the race looks a match between last years top two mile novice chaser Edwardstone and last year’s winner Nube Negra. Official ratings have only a pound between them and both are coming here following an absence of over 200 plus days. Alan King’s Edwardstone was last seen when a tad disappointing second at 4/7 at Aintree but had won the Arkle prior to that over course and distance. His trainer stated earlier in the week that he wanted to give him a run before the Tingle Creek at Sandown so one does wonder if he’ll be totally tuned up for this. Nube Negra started out last season in this very race when a comfortable 6L winner from Politologue though failed to back that effort up in two efforts since. He obviously goes well fresh and with the Dan Skelton stable in such fine form may be more forward than his chief rival Edwardstone and I’ll take him to win this. It’s hard to fancy the other three runners with possibly Sizing Pottsie the best of the trio. NUBE NEGRA 2 points win @ 11/8 BetVictor Fontwell 2.05 A good sized field of fourteen line up for the Southern National Handicap Chase run over 3m 3 1/2F of the figure of eight course . I think there’s a decent bet here in Gary Moore’s top weight Full Back. Ridden by his son Jamie he ran well on his re-appearance when plugging on to finish a 14 1/2L fourth in a decent Ascot handicap chase and surprisingly the handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds which must have pleased connections. A Cheltenham winner on New Years Day off of a 2lb lower mark he stays well and can give weight all round to a field of mainly exposed stayers. The one horse who isn’t is the Paul Nicholls trained Southfield Harvest as he’s only run the once over fences when winning a five runner affair at Newton Abbot in May of 2021. He’s not been seen since and it will be some training performance were he to take this. Nicholls stated in his Betfair column for the weekend that ‘he’s ready to start now, stays well, and needs plenty of cut in the ground’. I’m not sure he’ll get the latter and for me he’s worth opposing. Last year’s runner up Almazhar Garde is interesting off of a 3lb lower mark whilst Seamus Mullin’s I See You Well is two from three at this track so has claims. There’s a lot of dead wood at the bottom of the handicap in my opinion and Full Back looks sure to run well. FULL BACK 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365 Cheltenham 2.20 A decent sized field of thirteen here for the 3m 3F 71 yards class 1 handicap chase. Kim Bailey has his string in fine form currently and his top weight Does He Know is maybe the one to be with. He loves good ground and has a record here of three wins from six starts which has to be a bonus. Ramses De Teillee looks well handicapped having won this event two years ago off of a 12lb higher mark but he needs the mud so is overlooked. Nick Gifford’s The Mighty Don ran a decent second to Yala Enki in this last year from a 7lb higher mark although this year’s renewal looks significantly hotter. Fantastikas makes his seasonal re-appearance for the Twiston-Davies’s although has won fresh in the past and is another with a chance. Despite the steadier of twelve stone I’ll take second season chaser Does He Know under David Bass who gets his mounts into such a good rhythm to plunder this prize. DOES HE KNOW 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill Cheltenham 2.55 A highly competitive renewal of the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle run over two miles and 87 yards. Two Irish horses head the market in Emmet Mullins Thousand Tears who has been the subject of an ante post gamble during the week. As much as I respect the trainer I can’t see why he’s so short and am happy to look elsewhere. Willie Mullins saddles the other one at the head of the market and I can definitely see why. A winner at the Showcase meeting three weeks ago over fences he reverts to the smaller obstacles off of a handicap mark 7lb lower. Brian Hayes rode him that day and keeps the ride. He has to be on the short list. It’s not just about the Irish horses at the front of the betting though with plenty of others coming here with decent chances. Top weight I Like To Move It is two from four at the track and can run well but it would be some performance to win off of 12 stone. Sonigino has been raised 10lb for an easy recent win at Chepstow and may be weighted out of it. My fancy is a horse that bumped into Sonigino at Chepstow back at the beginning of last month keeping on to finish just under 3L behind the winner and re-opposes today on a stone better terms. That horse is the Alan King trained Nina The Terrier who followed up that good effort when crashing out three from home when staying on well against two horses rated 11lb and 12lb higher at Wetherby. It was too far out to say what would of happened but she certainly wasn’t done with. She could be well handicapped and I’ll take her to strike each way with additional place terms. NINA THE TERRIER 1 point each way @ 12/1 Hills 1/5th 12345 Cheltenham 3.30 Nice novices go to post for this grade 2 2m Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle. Four of the nine are trained in Ireland with the best of them possibly John C McConnell’s Fennor Cross who won a maiden hurdle from the re-opposing Deere Mark cosily at the last meeting. This does represent a step up in grade mind. The Cork maiden hurdle victory of ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Fascinating Shadow in May has worked out very well and with a recent pipe opener on the all weather at Dundalk shouldn’t be dismissed. Jonjo O’Neill’s Springwell Boy was an easy winner at Carlisle on his hurdles debut last month although that form was let down by the eclipse of Iorens at Market Rasen earlier this week. I’m going to take a chance on the unexposed Nicky Henderson trained, JP McManus owned Iberico Lord who has joined the Seven Barrows maestro after winning a French bumper on soft ground last May for Daniela Mele. Henderson said in a recent stable tour that ‘ he’s an exciting prospect that jumps well’. He’ll do for me. IBERICO LORD 2 points win @ 3/1 Betfred black rabbit, Wildgarden, MCLARKE and 8 others 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Greatwoid hurdle I like to move it 8.6 8/1 Ngolo 8.4 33/1 I'll try 10pt ew both ....see if they can get round today at least ? Budgie 65, The Equaliser, MinellaWorksop and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 5yo selections Cheltenham 1.10 Haute Estime 3/1 Navan 1.55 Zanahiyr 3/1 Fontwell 2.05 Red Happy 22/1 Navan 2.30 Riviere D'etel 6/1 Budgie 65, The Equaliser, Wildgarden and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) Cheltenham 2.20 Back On The Lash 9.47 6/1 3rd The Mighty Don 9.47 15/2 pu Mighty Thunder 9.45 9/1 pu Domaine D L’isle 9.22 11/1 3 points win top two Cheltenham 2.55 Cormier 9.47 25/1 Dads Lad 9.17 5/1 Gin Coco 8.95 9/2 2nd N’Golo 8.85 25/1 2.50 points top two Edited November 13, 2022 by Villa Chris Results richard-westwood, The Equaliser, Wildgarden and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) Fontwell 2.05 pulled up Full Back ticks all the boxes including dropping down in class . The one to beat. 5 points win 9/4 Edited November 13, 2022 by Villa Chris jonjo, MinellaWorksop, black rabbit and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) 2.55 ch- I don't get why CROMIER is a 28/1 shot in this Severance is a 10/1 shot my selection has already beat it similar trip and ground here is 1lb worse off for a 1/2l win but has a 7lb claimer on that will do fot me e/w bog 5 places. Edited November 13, 2022 by Tedthewolf black rabbit, yossa6133, azzybear and 6 others 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) Cheltenham. Single. 2.55. Harbour Lake. 14/1....ew...3rd Double. 4.00.Chlt. Crambo. 8/1. 3rd 1.00.Font.Font Langy. 13/2...2nd singles & double. Good luck all. Edited November 13, 2022 by kensland azzybear, jonjo, black rabbit and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 220 chelt Fantastikas 8.8 100/30 The mighty Don 8.6 8/1 I'll try 10pt wins both and 1pt rev forecast The Equaliser, kensland, azzybear and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Budgie 65 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 400 che notowned nap 205 fon fullback 120 nav Hercule du Seuil 330 fon Brown bullet kensland, black rabbit, Villa Chris and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 willie's got a couple going at Auteuil today 12.53 aghaboy 7/1 14.50 franco de port 7/2 got good french jockey j reverly azzybear, Villa Chris, jonjo and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Treble 1245 nav flame bearer 1405 fon full back 1430 nav Ferny hollow Fontwell Double 1405 full back 1440 Irish hill Of any of above lose then mb as free bet so use for later in day. Ew dbls 1405 fon slipway 1420 che mighty thunder 1215 nav Nathaniels dream 1455 nav cormier Naval dbl win 1215 maxxum 1355 Bob Olinger I've actually done a couple of bets on against nube negras using odds in a couple of accounts, lol. Used b365 free bet on 1455 Che dads lad Some moneyback offers still to look at on 1405 and 1420 azzybear, Wildgarden, black rabbit and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) Some lovely races at Cheltenham and over the water at Navan today. 1.55 Bob Olinger at around the 3.05 mark is my choice in this back over hurdles. Its a competitive looking race with a few who ran at last years Festival taking part but the important thing for me here is that Bob gets in without a penalty having having gone chasing immediately after winning the Ballymore at Cheltenham last year. Here he gets 9lb from Flooring Porter and Sire Du Berlais and 5lb from Zanahiyr, should be enough to see him home and has a great record fresh............1.02 in running and still couldnt win, second, at 1.8 in the 2tpb market. 2.30 Ferny Hollow, presumably Mullins will have him fully wound up for this after an 11 month absence. Same terms as when he beat Riviere D'Etel on Boxing Day, as he just a 5 year ld that one is entiltled to improve but I thought Ferny Hollow had a bit in hand that day, backed at 1.91.......non runner Sean Bowen has an attractive 39% strike rate when riding for Gordon Elliott recently and Indigo Breeze might improve on that. He was comfortably beaten by Banbridge last time out at levels, no disgrace as we saw Banbridge win the Arkle Trial easily here yesterday. The extra distance may well suit Indigo Breeze, taken 3.65 and will also go in the 2 place market if he reaches anywhere near the evens mark......trading odds on, 1.6 before they reached half way!!, hit 1.06 but didnt go on at the finish, got 1.94 2 places. Good luck today everyone. Edited November 13, 2022 by jonjo kensland, black rabbit and azzybear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I'm not in the Full Back Camp happy to take him on in th 2.05 Fontwell with a win bet on ALMAZAR GARDE 7/1 bog & RED HAPPY 16/1 e/w 4places. 2.20 CH- DOMAINE DE L'LSLE apeals to me e/w 12/1 4 places bog Villa Chris, black rabbit, The Equaliser and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) Dads Lad 2 55 Che/ { £100} 1/10th of a pt win 8/1 Cuthbert Dibble 4 00/ {£25 ew} 1/20th of a pt 18/1 P/L + 159.55 pts Edited November 13, 2022 by black rabbit kensland, azzybear, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) 2. 40 Fontwell won Quinta Du Mar won this race by 31 lengths last year and runs off the same mark . He’s also had a couple of decent runs in higher grades, so this class 3 should be to his liking . Irish Hill looks a big danger . 5 points win 10/3 Edited November 13, 2022 by Villa Chris Result black rabbit, kensland, azzybear and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, black rabbit said: Dads Lad 2 55 Che/ { £100} 1/10th of a pt win 8/1 Cuthbert Dibble 4 00/ {£25 ew} 1/20th of a pt 18/1 P/L + 159.55 pts I’m a right in reading your profit as 159k ? azzybear, kensland and The Equaliser 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: I’m a right in reading your profit as 159k ? thats from { may 2018 } from first postings Wildgarden, Zico10, kensland and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, black rabbit said: thats from { may 2018 } from first postings Better get your finger out ????? The Equaliser and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, black rabbit said: thats from { may 2018 } from first postings It could be from 20 years ago and it would still be a superb effort. Nice one, and good luck for the future ? Tedthewolf, The Equaliser and Zico10 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Just now, LEE-GRAYS said: Better get your finger out ????? ? ive increased the value of a { pt } in my origional bank of 200 pts as ive gone along from profits The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Villa Chris said: It could be from 20 years ago and it would still be a superb effort. Nice one, and good luck for the future ? well ive only increased the value of a PT from the profits as ive gone along and i keep staking pt fractions low as the price bracket i operate in means i could go 20 / 30 / selections without a strike The Equaliser, Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 nathaniels dream 12.15 colonel mustard 12.45 zanahiyr 1.55 slipway quinta do mar 2.40 aughnacurra king 3.15 The Equaliser, black rabbit and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2.05 slipway The Equaliser, Villa Chris and Budgie 65 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, black rabbit said: well ive only increased the value of a PT from the profits as ive gone along and i keep staking pt fractions low as the price bracket i operate in means i could go 20 / 30 / selections without a strike As much as I enjoy horse racing regardless of win/lose, the aim of betting is to make a profit, especially if you’re in it for the long term like I hope I am . Got to lose money before you make it as they say . Well done with your success anyway. LEE-GRAYS and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: As much as I enjoy horse racing regardless of win/lose, the aim of betting is to make a profit, especially if you’re in it for the long term like I hope I am . Got to lose money before you make it as they say . Well done with your success anyway. ive been in love with the game since i was a kid at school and got the spring double up??/ ive owned a few horses and had a few touches/ im still very much involved in horse business as our company make a very powerfull equine disinfectant and i deal with lots of stables and equine treatment centers ect/ Edited November 13, 2022 by black rabbit LEE-GRAYS, The Equaliser, Zico10 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 (edited) 2.05 Font Full Back 11/4 @The Brigadier 3.30 Chelt Iberico Lord 5/1 (drifting) @The Brigadier 4.00 Chelt Not Owned 4/1 (drifting) My PL Nap 2 pts win at 5.2 @The Brigadier@Budgie 1 x 0.50 ew Trixie = poss return of 99.40 4 pts staked Singles and savers 3.30 Chelt She Is Electric 0.5 win at 13/2 2.05 Font Almazar Guard 0.50 win at 6/1 @Tedthewolf 2.40 Font Quinto De Mar 1 pt win at 5.1 @Villa Chris Had some fun bets with @richard-westwood's two races 2.20 Chelt Fantasikas 0.5 win 7/2, The Might Don 0.5 win at 15/2 & Reverse Forecast for 1.00 pt both 2.55 Chelt I Like To Move It 0.50 ew at 8/1 Nglo 0.50 ew at 33/1 & Reverse Forecast Both for 1 pt Also had each way cross doubles for 0.25 = 2.00 on all four selections = 15 pts staked today ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RESULTS UPDATE Isn't hindsight wonderful. I should have combined @The Brigadier's Does He Know with @richard-westwood's I Like To Move It in the cross doubles as I already had Richard's two selections covered in the reverse forecast. I will certainly look at this strategy in the future when Richard puts up two races on the same day. I had a couple of winners returning 10.82 pts so a small loss of 4.18 on the day. This makes my MTD -47.00 and YTD -258.74 Four UK meetings tomorrow so should find some races to take a punt in Edited November 13, 2022 by The Equaliser RESULTS UPDATE black rabbit, The Brigadier and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 BET365 4/1 TV offer selections CHEL 2.20 Back On The Lash 9/2 CHEL 2.55 Gin Coco 9/2 CHEL 3.30 Iberico Lord 9/2 Villa Chris and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, black rabbit said: ive been in love with the game since i was a kid at school and got the spring double up??/ ive owned a few horses and had a few touches/ im still very much involved in horse business as our company make a very powerfull equine disinfectant and i deal with lots of stables and equine treatment centers ect/ Tedthewolf, Villa Chris and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 minute ago, black rabbit said: Thought I was on a acid trip for a moment Wildgarden, The Equaliser, Tedthewolf and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Just now, Villa Chris said: Thought I was on a acid trip for a moment i suppose we could make that as well ? Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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