Racing Chat - Saturday 12th November

[richard-westwood]

Rated this early ...bit risky but value is diminishing quickly so I'll take a chance 

Stolen silver    9.0 8/1 

Simply the Betts   8.6 14/1 

Captain Tom cat    8.5 28/1 

Stolen silver beat simply 11 lengths on the bridle when last met so he really looks a,strong bet here especially ew ....but the other 2 have good ew chances too .....I'd rather have all 3 running for me so I'll try 10pt win top rated and 5pt wins the other 2 .....hard race to tackle 

 

[Tedthewolf]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:50 AM, richard-westwood said:

Rated this early ...bit risky but value is diminishing quickly so I'll take a chance 

Stolen silver    9.0 8/1 

Simply the Betts   8.6 14/1 

Captain Tom cat    8.5 28/1 

Stolen silver beat simply 11 lengths on the bridle when last met so he really looks a,strong bet here especially ew ....but the other 2 have good ew chances too .....I'd rather have all 3 run1 bog  3 places for me so I'll try 10pt win top rated and 5pt wins the other 2 .....hard race to tackle 

 

Captain Tom Cat entered for a C2  2mile chase race at Cheltenham tomorrow  nice price 12/i with bog 3 place  only 9 go to post i've had a bit on as that looks a really decen price will be interesting  if you rate that race how it rates with you.

 

[richard-westwood]

2 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Captain Tom Cat entered for a C2  2mile chase race at Cheltenham tomorrow  nice price 12/i with bog 3 place  only 9 go to post i've had a bit on as that looks a really decen price will be interesting  if you rate that race how it rates with you.

 

I was hoping he'd run in gold cup ....the hcaaper had Been really lenient giving him 140 ....if I was connections I'd let him take his chance especially as low weights have such a good record too ....I'll rate it later and see how it stacks up 

[Tedthewolf]

My two e/w for the gold cup are-

SIMPLY THE BEST 20/1 5p bog &  MISTER FISHER 14/1 bog 5p

 

[richard-westwood]

@Tedthewolfdiff conditions diff ratings 

Malystic    8.4 

Hasankey  8.2 

Amarylo sky   7.7 

Grey diamond   7.7 

Glancing queen   7.5 

Captain Tom cat   7.3 

Drop back in trip probably against captain ....

Tbh .....hasankey and malystic are both 12/1,!! .....so I'll try ew on those 2 in this as they look good value considering 

[calva decoy]

Coole Cody loves it round here & most probably would have needed the run when 7th on seasonal reappearance & is 14/1 sky 6 places , 16's with bet365 5 places .

 

GALLAHAD QUEST 9/1 bet365 ( 5 places ) running off a low weight ,was 5th in race last year & goes well at course & on faster surface .

Edited November 11, 2022 by calva decoy

[Villa Chris]

Wrong day 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Villa Chris

[fd1972uk]

Might take up these new coral bundles, seems pretty decent, £2 and £5 bets that double in tokens (think the £2 is £5 in total). Especially if looking at decent odds.

Footy one too.

[The Brigadier]

Day two of the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham with the feature race of the meeting The Paddy Power Gold Cup looking an open renewal with the bookmakers currently betting 5/1 the field . The ITV cameras are there to capture four races and also at leafy Lingfield for a brace of all-weather listed races. The ground is drying at Cheltenham and unless the course water on Friday evening (quite possible) we’ll be looking at good ground. Here’s my early thoughts.

 

Cheltenham 1.45

Seven young chasers line up for the grade 2 Arkle Trial Novice Chase run over two miles. The best in at today’s weights on hurdle ratings is Ann Hamilton’s Tommy’s Oscar who made a winning fencing debut at Carlisle when taking the scalp of prolific winner Geromino with owner and part trainer Ian Hamilton stating afterwards that he was badly in need of a run and will come on a ton. I do believe if he was trained by a more fashionable trainer he would be favourite here and he’s the bet in the race. Joseph O’Brien’s Banbridge runs here rather than a handicap on the Friday and should go well although was rated a 13lb inferior hurdler to Tommy’s Oscar and the drop to two miles may not be ideal. Paul Nicholls has his stable in terrific form having trained over twenty winners over the last fortnight and saddles his chasing debutant Monmiral here. He too was rated 7lb inferior to the selection although you can never dismiss anything from that stable at the moment. Nicky Henderson is beginning to get going and his runner Pentland Hills, who walked over at Huntingdon a fortnight ago, makes his fencing debut and is another one who could go well. The bet however has to be Tommy’s Oscar, who’s fit and we know jumps well.

 

TOMMY’S OSCAR 2 points win @ 7/2 Betfred

 

Cheltenham 2.20

An excellent renewal of the 2m 4F Paddy Power Gold Cup with a strong numerical presence of sixteen. It has a very open look about it with several holding claims. Surprisingly the Irish don’t have a particularly good record in the past in this race but have the current market leader in French Dynamite, trained by Mouse Morris. A win at Thurles over hurdles 23 days ago should have put him spot on for this and can go well along with the likes of Sam Thomas’s Stolen Silver although he’s up 7lb for his latest win here in the spring and has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark today. Happygolucky was a smart chaser when lat seen but that was two seasons ago and surely he couldn’t win this after a 581 day absence could he? Paul Nicholls is two handed with last years sixth Simply The Betts who’s now in the ownership of amateur David Maxwell and Il Ridoto who has had his wind tinkered with since last seen and preference would be for the latter. Jamie Snowden saddles Ga Law who was a real eye catcher on his re-appearance when a running on third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. That was his first run for 603 days and as long as he doesn’t bounce is the one I think may take this. I can’t resist a saver on Paul Nicholls’ Il Ridoto as well although bets should be kept small as this is a very competitive race.

 

GA LAW 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

IL RIDOTO 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Lingfield 2.35

An All-Weather fast track qualifier run over 6F is the listed Golden Rose Stakes. I find it hard to fancy anything beyond the front three in the market with the Irish trained Logo Hunter and David O’Meara’s Summerghand the ones to concentrate on. The latter was pulled out last Saturday at Doncaster on the turf when the ground went heavy and won’t mind this surface having won four times on the all weather for ten career tries. He’s nicely drawn in stall 5 and can take this from Logo Hunter who’s been runner up on his last two starts over 5F and may prefer the minimum trip. The other possible is Ado McGuiness’s seven year old Harry’s Bar who was some 5L behind Logo Hunter at Dundalk last time but is best at 6F so can get closer today.

 

SUMMERGHAND 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.55

Next up is a three mile class handicap hurdle with thirteen going to post. With Paul Nicholls in such fine form the first horse to look at is Shearer who’s chasing a hat trick following small field victories at Worcester and over course and distance at the last meeting. The horse he beat last time Twig has won easily since to frank his chances. He looks the one to beat. 2020 winner and top weight today On The Blind Side represents the in form Nicky Henderson stable and off of a pound lower than that victory has claims. Two horses that have been chasing and look particularly well handicapped are Dan Skelton’s Padleyourowncanoe (12lb lower than his last hurdles run) and Chris Gordon’s Annual Invictus (runs off the same mark as when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle when last seen over timber). Preference of that pair would be for the former with the latter having to prove his stamina. Shearer is probably the most likely winner but at the prices I’ll go each way with enhanced places with Padleyourowncanoe who may have been laid out for this.

 

PADLEYOUROWNCANOE 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 1/5th 1234

 

Lingfield 3.10

A dozen line up for the listed Churchill Stakes run over 1m 2F and features a very interesting contender in the Aiden O’Brien trained Bolshoi Ballet, a smart performer who we haven’t seen for a year. If fit he is the one to beat but has yet to race on the all weather and will he be straight enough? At around 7/2 I’ll look elsewhere for the winner. George Boughey saddles his progressive three year old Missed The Cut who hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Deauville in a group 3 in August. He probably didn’t handle the slow ground that day and is making his all weather here today. John and Thady Gosden run two in last year’s runner up Harrovian who we haven’t seen for 134 days and Forest Of Dean who is also coming here following a lay off. Preference is for the former who could be the value play each way today.

 

HARROVIAN 1 point each way @ 6/1 Betfred 1/5 123

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Fourteen go to post for this 2m 5F intermediate handicap hurdle and features a good bet in the likely favourite Wiseguy, trained at Seven Barrows by Nicky Henderson. Not seen for 337 days but by all accounts has been working very well and could be chucked in here in his handicap debut when we remember that he beat the 148 rated Hillcrest in a bumper at Doncaster in January 2021 by a nose and can race today off of a initial mark of just 119. Nico de Boinville rides and he may have most to fear from Irish raiders Elle Perfecta, trained by Colm Murphy and well supported during the week and Tony Martin’s bottom weight Unanswered who will obviously be worth watching in the market. Henderson has another runner here in the JP McManus owned Time Flies By, a maiden hurdle winner at Fontwell last month but he’s already been beaten in two handicaps and doesn’t appear to have as much scope as stable companion Wiseguy.

 

WISEGUY 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

[black rabbit]

Umbrigado            2 20 Chl/    20/1      { £25 ew }=  1/20th of a pt/

Lisnagard Oscar   2 55 Chl/    18/1      { £ 25 ew } = 1/20th of a pt/

Keyser Soze          2 00 Lin/   28/1       { £25 ew } =  1/20th of a pt/

Lucky Man             2 35 Lin/    15/1      { £25 ew}  =  1/20th of a pt/

 

 

 

P/L  + 159.75 pts

Edited November 12, 2022 by black rabbit

[Villa Chris]

Paddy Power Gold Cup 

Mister Fisher 9.8 14/1

Umbrigado 9.45 12/1

Simply The Betts 9.31 16/1

Coole Cody 9.15 12/1

Go Law 9 13/2 1st 

Mister Fisher is the class horse in the race but that means very little in a race like this. He’s well handicapped and will like the ground. Also has a good record at the course . Carrying 12 stone won’t be easy though . Umbrigado races off the same mark he did when winning the gold cup at Newbury . He’s also fit and has been in decent form over hurdles. Simply The Betts comes here we’ll handicapped running off 149 if you include the 3Ibs claimer . Good course record, and has finished 6th in last two renewals of this race off 156 and 154. He should at least place you’d think .  I’ll go 4 points win top 3 and hope one of them land . 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

Cheltenham 2.55 

Lisnager Oscar 9.7 12/1

Padleyourowncanoe 9.45 4/1

On The Blindside 9.31 13/2

Tight race . I’ll play top two  3 points on each 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Villa Chris
Non runner

[Tedthewolf]

2.55 CH -ON THE BLIND SIDE former winner of this will love the ground top trainer will hace him ready for this big e/w chance @7/1 bog 5 places

[Villa Chris]

Wetherby 1.53 

Zanza 9.7 14/1 2nd 

Defi Sacre 9.45 13/2

Karl Phillipe 9.2 5/1 1st 

I could be following Zanza off a cliff here because he’s been out of sorts lately. This is a big drop in class for him though and he’s fallen down the weights. If recapturing any sort of form he would be too good for these . He’s 14/1 for a reason, but I’ll risk it. Defi also has had a poor year but is very well handicapped and would be solid bet if running his race . Third rated is unexposed.

3 points win top two 

 

Wetherby 1.18 

Onagatheringstorm could be a notch above these. Ran well last time out and if he improves on that run he could take this 

5 points win 

 

Uttoxeter 2.12

Tea for Free 1st 

Classic Ben 3rd 

The Hollow Ginge 

3 points reverse forecast 

 

32 points staked on the day 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

255 chelt 

Shearer   8.2  7/2 

Paddleyourowncanoe  8.0 9/2 

These 2 are a bit clear of rest so I'll try 10pt wins both 

[richard-westwood]

6.00 wolv 

Genesius  8.0 6/1 

Militry decoration  7.7 33/1 

These 2 look good value so I'll try  10pt ew both to finish the day 4 places 

Edited November 12, 2022 by richard-westwood

[kensland]

Wolverhampton.

Single.

5.30. Wild Hurricane.    5/1

Double.

12.27. Uttx. Quick Sharpener.   17/2

6.00. Wolv..Oblong Song..       11/2

singles & double.

Good luck all.

[Budgie 65]

330 che unanswered 13/8

[The Equaliser]

A smalll Trixie at Lingfield

12.15 Always Fearless 4/1

2.00 Tacarib Bay 3/1

2.35 Summerghand 5/2 @The Brigadier

0.50 pts = poss return of 60.75

Singles and savers

12.15 Lin Gurkha Girl 0.50 win at 11/2

2.00 Lin Hafeet Alain 0.50ew at 10/1

2.35 Harry's Bar 0.50 win at 11/2

Took early prices on @richard-westwoodselections in the 2.20 Chelt Stolen silver 2 pt win at 8.2, Simply the Bets 0.50 ew at 20/1 and Mr Fisher 0.50ew at 14/1.  The price has gone on Stolen Silver so probably the reverse forecast would be of less value than  it would otherwise had been

7 points staked so far

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was short on time today so not too many bets.  One winner with Gurkha Girl.  I should have backed Summerghand at least with 2 points as it was my Nap bet, courtesy of @The Brigadier.  I have included my later loss on the 6.00 at Wolves which was a bit unlucky.  This caused a net loss of 6.75 creating an MTD of -42.82 and an YTD of -254.56.

Cheltenham goes again tomorrow and Fontwell too.  May find one or two bets

Edited November 12, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[azzybear]

Mr freedom 12.35 cash back 1.30  Tommy's Oscar 1.45 ga law 2.20 paddleyourowncanoo 2.55 wiseguy 3.30 

[The Equaliser]

Lay Bet

Not many odds on shots today in the UK too look at

7.30 Wolv Al Dasim 1.99 at 1.48 = 1.95 profit v 0.96 Liability.  The horse carries a double penalty and this is my choice.  I realise that Michael @MCLARKEnaps it at 1/2 and may regret not just having  a level stakes to minimise my liability, however, I reckon anything can happen in 2 yo races  

Won like an odds on shot should win

Other Odds on shots

1.02 Uttx Strong Leader. The Skeltons have pulled out of this race and I can't see any reason why the favourite shouldn't win.  800 Wolv Tough Enough.  Barely odds on and only one supposed real challenger

8.00 Wolv Tough Enough 1.11 @1.90 = 1.09 v 1.00 Liability

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well the 2nd odds on shot won so I was down 1.96 points on the day.  Funny enough I never feel bad when they win as I know a lot of people have faith in them.  I have decided to keep to making a 1 pt win with the odds on selections.  I will rarely intentionally lay anything over 1/3, though I know that Al Dasim was backed into 2/7 but it was 1.48 when I laid it.  Hence I won't be laying Nube Zegra in the 1.45 at Cheltenham as Edward Stone has pulled out of  the race.  This makes my MTD -3.47

Edited November 13, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Cheltenham	1.10	Malina Girl	9/1
Wetherby	1.18	Hardy Du Seuil	9/1
Uttoxeter	2.47	Fortunes Melody	13/8
Naas	3.15	Happy Dreams	6/1
Wetherby	3.38	Big Changes	6/4

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

CHEL	2.20	Ga Law	6/1
LING	2.35	Judicial (3)	5/1
CHEL	2.55	Padleyourowncanoe	9/2

[Villa Chris]

Not the best of days . 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 -47.46

try to claw some back tomorrow 

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

6.00 wolv 

Genesius  8.0 6/1 

Militry decoration  7.7 33/1 

These 2 look good value so I'll try  10pt ew both to finish the day 4 places 

Had 3 points on your selections; 1 pt win Genesius at 6.2 and 0.5 ew Military at 50/1 and a reverse forecast 0.5 on both. Will pay out a lot if the forecast come in

I was just wondering if you had stats on your results for sprints? and whether 5 furlong races or 6 furlong races were best or if they are both the same.  I think your ratings probably do better in sprints but of course I could be wrong.  Just curious.

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

6.00 wolv 

Genesius  8.0 6/1 

Militry decoration  7.7 33/1 

These 2 look good value so I'll try  10pt ew both to finish the day 4 places 

Beaten in a photo ....frustrating ....thought he had it

[MCLARKE]

8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections

Cheltenham	1.10	Malina Girl	9/1
Wetherby	1.18	Hardy Du Seuil	9/1
Uttoxeter	2.47	Fortunes Melody	13/8
Naas	3.15	Happy Dreams	6/1
Wetherby	3.38	Big Changes	6/4

4 losers but Happy Dreams won at 6/1 so a profit of 2 points on the day.

Total 9 from 34, LSP + 21.25

[Bang on]

On 11/12/2022 at 12:31 PM, The Equaliser said:

Lay Bet

Not many odds on shots today in the UK too look at

7.30 Wolv Al Dasim 1.99 at 1.48 = 1.95 profit v 0.96 Liability.  The horse carries a double penalty and this is my choice.  I realise that Michael @MCLARKEnaps it at 1/2 and may regret not just having  a level stakes to minimise my liability, however, I reckon anything can happen in 2 yo races  

Won like an odds on shot should win

Other Odds on shots

1.02 Uttx Strong Leader. The Skeltons have pulled out of this race and I can't see any reason why the favourite shouldn't win.  800 Wolv Tough Enough.  Barely odds on and only one supposed real challenger

8.00 Wolv Tough Enough 1.11 @1.90 = 1.09 v 1.00 Liability

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well the 2nd odds on shot won so I was down 1.96 points on the day.  Funny enough I never feel bad when they win as I know a lot of people have faith in them.  I have decided to keep to making a 1 pt win with the odds on selections.  I will rarely intentionally lay anything over 1/3, though I know that Al Dasim was backed into 2/7 but it was 1.48 when I laid it.  Hence I won't be laying Nube Zegra in the 1.45 at Cheltenham as Edward Stone has pulled out of  the race.  This makes my MTD -3.47

Just a word of friendly advice when LAYING the short ones. 

The 2 you chose were trained by trainers in HOT FORM - G.Boughey (you also had a lay bet on one of his the day before which won) 12 wins, 8 placed from 40 runners (30% winners), and James Tate 2 winners 3 placed from 6 runners (33% winners). It may pay to check the recent stats for the trainer.