Tennis Tips - October 10 - October 16

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

I rather fancy Golubic over Parry at 1.53 with William Hill. I went against Parry with Noskova, and she hasn't impressed me since then, while Golubic has the better serve and strokes overall.

[amity]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

I rather fancy Golubic over Parry at 1.53 with William Hill. I went against Parry with Noskova, and she hasn't impressed me since then, while Golubic has the better serve and strokes overall.

I would agree normally however my only concern is it looks like Golubic hasn't played since the US Open, if my information is correct? 

EDIT: sorry, Google gave me wrong results on that, I checked on Flashscore just now and see that she's played a couple of tournaments in the interim and done pretty well overall, only losing to Muchova in Talinn (although she was admittedly beaten quite well by her in the end).

Edited October 10, 2022 by amity

[Swiss Maestro]

van Rijthoven (+2.5 Games) to beat M.Ymer at 1.65 with Marathonbet

I expect a close match here. Both are really good indoor players. Ymer has dropped a set against Gojo, while Tim has won his 2 matches in straight sets. IMO, this is a 50/50 match, but I think Tim's big serve can make the difference here. In his last match here he did 25 aces and he won the 87% of points on serve (48-55). I don't expect Tim to lose this one easily, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him losing in 2 or 3 tight sets. (just a few days ago, he lost in Sofia 7-6, 7-6 against Rune). That's why I take this handicap. It will cover that result from his recent match against Rune, and it also should cover a 3 sets loss match.

I also have seen this bet on betfair, also at 1.65. 

In Pinnacle the +2.0 is at 1.73.

[Swiss Maestro]

Garin to win a set vs. Bublik at 2.10 with bet365

I add this one. Garin returned after his wrist problems. He was destroyed by Djokovic (6-1, 6-1), but I'm not worried about that. He barely has played on indoors and he even has a negative record (4-9). Despite that, I don't think he's that bad on indoors. The last year he only played 1 match on indoors, it was in Antwerp and he lost in 3 sets to Fokina (6-4, 3-6, 3-6). In 2020, he played 2 matches, both in Vienna. He beat Wawrinka and then he lost to Thiem. In 2019 he played 6 matches, and he won 3 of them (all those victories were in the Paris Masters, where he reached the QFs). He beat Cuevas, Isner and Chardy, and he ended up losing to Dimitrov. The others 2 defeats that year were against Seppi (6-3, 7-6, 7-6) and Opelka (7-6, 7-6). As you can see, his results are not that bad..., and many of his defeats were close matches against good players. 

Bublik is an excellent indoor player and he has had really good results recently (Final in Metz), but this is a minor event and I have some doubts about his implication... As I said, he recently reached the Final in Metz and then he played in Astana, where he lost to Hubi. That's why I have some doubts, this is a minor tournament and he arrives after playing home and reaching a good result in Metz. Garin is in more need of wins and points than Bublik does and we all know Bublik only plays for the money. They have played 2 times and Garin won both, but both matches were on clay.

At odds above 2.00 I think is value. I wouldn't take this under 2.00

[Swiss Maestro]

I can't remember the last time I saw Thiem playing that well. What an exhibition! 

[amity]

I'll be looking to take on Badosa again in some form or other vs Alison Riske, who is demolishing Louise Chirico as we speak. Hope we get plus odds on Riske. I will say though that Badosa actually played pretty well vs Kvitova in her last match and probably should have taken the first set, so perhaps she's starting to turn the corner, but a lively Riske, with home support behind her, will still present a challenge, so let's see what odds we get for her later tonight or tomorrow.

EDIT: Chirico is blazing back into this one, she's just taken the second set having been a double break down! 

Edited October 10, 2022 by amity

[amity]

23 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

van Rijthoven (+2.5 Games) to beat M.Ymer at 1.65 with Marathonbet

I expect a close match here. Both are really good indoor players. Ymer has dropped a set against Gojo, while Tim has won his 2 matches in straight sets. IMO, this is a 50/50 match, but I think Tim's big serve can make the difference here. In his last match here he did 25 aces and he won the 87% of points on serve (48-55). I don't expect Tim to lose this one easily, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him losing in 2 or 3 tight sets. (just a few days ago, he lost in Sofia 7-6, 7-6 against Rune). That's why I take this handicap. It will cover that result from his recent match against Rune, and it also should cover a 3 sets loss match.

I also have seen this bet on betfair, also at 1.65. 

In Pinnacle the +2.0 is at 1.73.

anyone know what the heck happened to van Rijthoven this morning...   was he carrying an injury or something?

Can't see how he could put in such a pathetic performance otherwise ?

[Swiss Maestro]

1 hour ago, amity said:

anyone know what the heck happened to van Rijthoven this morning...   was he carrying an injury or something?

Can't see how he could put in such a pathetic performance otherwise ?

I stopped watching him when he lost his serve in the first game of the second set. Pathetic. I don't know if he had something but one day hitting 25 aces and winning more than the 85% of points on both first and second serve and the next day not reaching even the 50% of points won with first serve is surreal. Disgusting. What a day

[Foo_Fighter]

In the Ivashka vs Feliziano match in Gijon, I'd suggest the following: Total service games - under 19.5 & under 18.5 or Ivashka to cover -5.5 games. Or both. 

The game has started. Good luck.

[Foo_Fighter]

2 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

In the Ivashka vs Feliziano match in Gijon, I'd suggest the following: Total service games - under 19.5 & under 18.5 or Ivashka to cover -5.5 games. Or both. 

The game has started. Good luck.

Neither comes in. A really bad day for me punters. Hope your luck is much better.

[CzechPunter]

Golubic came in for me there, today I'll oppose Karatsev and back M. Ymer to beat him at 1.62 with William Hill. I backed Karatsev last time out against Zhang and he failed, and one has the feeling that he would've failed against Griekspoor yesterday without the latter's injury happening. 

[neilovan]

Looking at some of today's matches.

Definitely all over Mikael Ymer to beat Aslan Karatsev. Perfect match up for Ymer, who has been on a terrific run. Ymer has won 6 of his last 8 matches, losing to Coric and Wawrinka. He also came off a really im,pressive run at the Citi Open in Oct where he beat Korda, Murray, Karatsev and Ruusuvouri . Karatsev as an underdog is playing very close to the bookmakers expectation. He is on a terrible run, losing 12 of his last 14. I don't think he gets crushed here but he should be losing.

Second match is Dominic Theim v Marcus Giron. I just fancy Thiem on the -3.5 game match handicap at evens. Theim returning to form, and with it comes consistency. He just does not get hammered in sets (recently), only Cilic beating him 6-2 in Tel Aviv. Theim has the advantages in almost all the serving categories, especially breaks and been broken per match.

As a side note. There is a junior ITF tournament this weekend at my club (wanderers). https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament/j3-johannesburg/rsa/2022/j-g3-rsa-02a-2022/acceptance-list/  . How good are these kids? DO any of them have a shot at doing anything?

[CzechPunter]

Still too early to say at this stage, too many variables I'm afraid @neilovan.

[neilovan]

No courts due to tournament, but they just opened 6 padel courts there, which looks quite fun. WIll maybe book, play, chill out and watch some juniors. The weekend could be worse. Meanwhile Ymer lost his way a little or Karatsev woke up.   Hopefully the breaker will go our way and put this one to bed.

[amity]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

No courts due to tournament, but they just opened 6 padel courts there, which looks quite fun. WIll maybe book, play, chill out and watch some juniors. The weekend could be worse. Meanwhile Ymer lost his way a little or Karatsev woke up.   Hopefully the breaker will go our way and put this one to bed.

I saw some of the match, Karatsev is such a frustrating and inconsistent player, when he was in the zone for much of the second set, he was immense, I don't think any player hits it as hard as him. Incredible power and some outstanding winners.

He played some tremendous tennis in that second set, and not just power, he had some lovely deft volleys too. However he was all at sea in the first and third sets, the occasional brilliant point, followed by numerous UEs, and I think he threw in the towel once he went a break down in the final set.

Ymer, for his part, was very solid for most of the match, aside from when he lost a few games in a row in the second set. He's exceptionally fast and his retrieval skills are among the best on the tour. He's made real improvements to his game over the last year or two and is now a consistently high performer. I'd like to see him go on and win the tournament, playing like this he definitely has a chance.

 

[CzechPunter]

Happy with Ymer as well, finally two picks in a row going my way!

[neilovan]

Nice to see Thiem come through after a tricky start. Lovely last set

[sterziyskii]

What do you guys think about Rublev and Macdonald (low odds but in a combo it's at around [email protected] odds with bigger bet)? Passaro against Macdonald has only 2 mathes on hard court that are not ITF 15 tournamets. Don't think Rublev will have a problem as well as I watched Ivashka's last match and he barely beat the 41 year old Lopez who pretty much has only his serve left.

If you have better ideas for 2 matches around @2.00, I'm all ears.

[CzechPunter]

Depends on Rublev's mood after Astana, really, the odds are about okay I'd say.

[amity]

I think Collins to win San Diego at 13/2 with Bet365 is not the worst price, considering that she's already in the quarter and due to meet the winner of Chirico and Badosa, the former who won her first WTA match in five years to get here and the woefully out of form Badosa. Collins at 4/7 to win Q4 is another option, again with Bet365. I must say though, I was impressed with Chirico's performance against Riske, an amazing comeback, and Badosa's level was certainly better vs Kvitova in her last match then in her previous dire efforts. Still though, with Collins set to play either the inexperienced Chirico or the out of form and likely low in confidence Badosa, you'd have to fancy her to win that. Then she'd face most likely Sabalenka in the semis and Swiatek in the final, if she were successful, very tough matches, but so long as she makes the semis, there'll be hedging opportunities to ensure we don't lose out. In my view, it's worth a go anyway.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by amity

[Grass Cash]

What kind of chances are you guys giving Stephens in San Diego? Sabalenka has been wearing tape and brace on her knee over the past week. 

@CzechPunter

[sterziyskii]

Had a great day yesterday with Rublev, Macdonald and Swaintek, hope you got some of the cake. Do you have any decent predictions for today? Everything seems so risky and can't take a decision. 

[CzechPunter]

Only got to the odds now, can't see anything for the rest of the day honestly, Wang over NPD comes the closest for me.

[Grass Cash]

Paula Badosa/JJ Wolf Parlay: odds 5.5

first meeting matches for both players, and I think I have the more talented player both ways.. Collins beat Trevisan on hard, and tired player now Garcia. I am not impressed with these results at all, and the only advatange for Collins is the home country imo. Badosa traveled from Ostrava to here, and seems to be in form with more work to do. 

GL Gents, and stay humble my friends! I've already place the wager clearly in bold text!

ALSO WANTED TO ADD THAT JJ WOLF is an indoor specialist. if you look at his record it's something like 55-26. I don't the exact reason for his success here but it is pretty clear. I think the wrong American is favored to win their match. Albeit. they are some tricky betting lines I will admit.. but should be a hell of a watch. 

Edited October 15, 2022 by money44

[Foo_Fighter]

59 minutes ago, money44 said:

Paula Badosa/JJ Wolf Parlay: odds 5.5

first meeting matches for both players, and I think I have the more talented player both ways.. Collins beat Trevisan on hard, and tired player now Garcia. I am not impressed with these results at all, and the only advatange for Collins is the home country imo. Badosa traveled from Ostrava to here, and seems to be in form with more work to do. 

GL Gents, and stay humble my friends! I've already place the wager clearly in bold text!

ALSO WANTED TO ADD THAT JJ WOLF is an indoor specialist. if you look at his record it's something like 55-26. I don't the exact reason for his success here but it is pretty clear. I think the wrong American is favored to win their match. Albeit. they are some tricky betting lines I will admit.. but should be a hell of a watch. 

Agree about the Collins vs Badosa match, disagree on the other. Ymer is on fire.

Meanwhile, Iga opened a new bakery in San Diego lol.

[Grass Cash]

I think Wolf is equally on fire in Florence is you look at his results. fair play to you 

[sterziyskii]

17 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Only got to the odds now, can't see anything for the rest of the day honestly, Wang over NPD comes the closest for me.

Nice call there. Played the early matches yesterday, Thiem, Rublev and Ymer and followed with another bet on Wang and Swiantek at night. Having no idea why the odds for Wang were @2.00.

For today I would probably go for Korda, Pospisil in the challanger tour and Swiantek against Pegula.

Korda looks like a good bet as he beat Agut and Murray. Against Murray he had a downfall only in the second set but didn't have many problems overall and going 6:1 in the third. Rinderknech played a really, really tough match against Carreno Busta after losing the first set and playing a 18:16 tiebreak in the third.

Pospisil seems like a nice match as he is the way more experienced player. For the German this is I believe his deepest run in the challanger tour as he is still playing mostly ITF tournaments. The difference in the levels is huge and playing against an experienced player like Pospisil seems like the end of his run.

About Swiantek, Pegula isn't playing bad but Swiantek is almost unbeateable right now. Watching her last 2 matches after the defeat against Kreichikova and she is definetely playing goood winning 81% first serve and beating Gauff 6:0, 6:3. Also everyone knows that she was on 37 matches win streak so @1.45 seems okay.

Also wondering if I should go for Felix against Musetti. Watched Felix play and he was doing really well also was 91% on first serve. Musetti beat Sapata and Macdonald. Sapata had a lucky win against Sonego (who was playing terribly, watched the match), and against Macdonald that is having a rough season. The bar is too high with Felix now

Edited October 15, 2022 by sterziyskii

[carina007]

It was such a bad idea to follow bet on Pospisil. I never bet on challengers matches...

I lost too much money