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Racing Chat- Friday 7th October

Tedthewolf
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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted
On 10/6/2022 at 12:36 PM, MCLARKE said:

Indeed. Also should we treat hurdles and chases differently ?

YES ... I made a big mistake with one yesterday, put it up over hurdles, it has won 4 chases but not quite quick enough over the hurdles (Debden Bank - should win soon if over fences).

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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted

Well, a wipeout yesterday. Hope to get some back today.

4.30 Chep - Sonigino - 2pts win - 5/2

5.35 York - Guess - 1pt EW - 6/1 (1/5th 5 places)

5.45 Newc - Citizen General - 3pts win - 5/4

5.50 Nmkt - Ville de Grace - 2pts EW (1/5th 4 places)

6.45 Newc - Wild Lion - 2pts win - 7/4

13pts staked

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Start of the jumps season is upon us which grabs my interest way more than flat racing. 
 

1.35 Chepstow 

Cloth Cap 9.7 5/2

Some Chaos 9.45 4/1

Al Roc 8.96 16/1

Mighty Don  8.93 11/2

Cloth Cap didn’t do much last year, but probably still retains that bit of class to take this, although will need to hit the ground running. Al Roc is a good price, although very inconsistent. 
 

5 points win Cloth Cap 5/2 

Cloth Cap non runner due to ground I think. Will replace with Some Chaos as he’s  a little bit in front of those behind .

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
On 10/6/2022 at 10:53 AM, richard-westwood said:

I Need to get some practice in with jumps .....it needs a completely diff formula to the flat so I Need to get some race practice in before tackling the big races 

135 chep 

Cloth cap  9.0 5/2 

Some chaos  8.7 

Mighty Don  8.2 

Broken quest  8.2 

10pt win cloth cap 

Cloth cap Non runner.....I  transferred bet to next horse in list  some chaos who won easily 

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

Posted
Posted
On 10/6/2022 at 12:59 AM, Tedthewolf said:

2.35 Chepstow - Two small bets for me Win bet on last years winner SOME CHAOS 5/1 bog corals & e/w AL ROC 25/1  3 places with bert365 (only 7 runners) bog Pipe horses  do well here and Al just may lead them a merry dance from the front.

He tried didn’t he Al Roc. Nice place money for him though . 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 10/5/2022 at 8:02 PM, richard-westwood said:

240 york 

Arthurs realm  8.6 9/1 

Empirestatemind  8.4 10/1 

Isla kai    8.0

What's the story 7.7

Redarna 7.7

I'll try 5pt ew top 2 rated and 1pt rev forecast 

Empire 2nd ...isla 3rd ew money

Edited by richard-westwood
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
On 10/6/2022 at 8:39 AM, The Brigadier said:
Chepstow 1.35
Run just short of three miles this class 2 handicap chase is for veterans and has attracted a small field of seven. Top weight is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Cloth Cap who it must be said was very disappointing last season although has fallen 12lb in the weights for his below par efforts. Not seen since pulling up at 33/1 in the Grand National in April I’m happy to take him on. The one I fancy here has pulled up on four his last six starts! Michael Scudamore is an underrated trainer who saddles Some Chaos and is the pick despite not been seen for 172 days. He defied a similar absence in this event last season when a cosy winner off of 140 under todays pilot Ben Poste and can repeat that victory off of a handicap mark of 138. Some firms are paying three places on this seven runner race so let’s back him each way with the additional place.
 
SOME CHAOS 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5 123
 
Newmarket 1.50
A feast of quality racing at Headquarters kicks off with the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes for two year olds over 5F. A dozen speedsters line up with a warm favourite in the Keith Dagleish trained Prince Of Pillo who runs in the Middleham Park colours. He put a disappointing run at Doncaster on soft ground behind him when an impressive winner of the listed Harry Roseberry at Ayr last month. He had that race won some way out and the form has been boosted by the subsequent victory of the runner up Bolt Action. If he can reproduce that form he’ll be very hard to beat. Michael O’Callaghan’s Crispy Cat was just ahead of the selection at Doncaster and may be the one to chase home the favourite.
 
PRINCE OF PILLO 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365
 
Chepstow 2.10
Eight novices assemble for the 2m 3 1/2F grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle. The highest rated of them is the Donald McCain trained Presentandcounting who’s gone off favourite for his last five starts winning four of them. This is his stiffest task to date mind. Dan Skelton’s Quid Pro Quo looks short enough in the betting having won both his hurdle starts in five and six runner fields. He could win this but at around the 7/4 mark represents no value at all. Harry Fry’s Deeper Blue is of more interest as he was runner up at this meeting last season to Stage Star before winning a maiden hurdle and handicap hurdle in March. A race in which to watch with the future in mind so just a tentative each way bet on Deeper Blue.
 
DEEPER BLUE 1/2 bet each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 123
 
 
Newmarket 2.25
Eleven two year old fillies go to post for the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes and the race does have a rather open look about it. Tom Clover’s Crystallium is unbeaten in two starts at Chelmsford and Newbury and should be competitive. The highest rated here is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Rage Of Bamby who undoubtably brings the best piece of form to the table with her 4L third in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes a fortnight ago to Commissioning. Lose Yourself is a very interesting runner for the very much in form Ralph Beckett stable. She made a winning racecourse debut when winning on soft ground here on the July course back in August. That form has worked out well with the 2nd, 4th & 6th all winning since. She was nicely backed that day and looks worth chancing today despite the rise in grade. Rossa Ryan was on board for her debut and retains the ride today.
 
LOSE YOURSELF 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123
 
York 2.40
If my weather forecast is correct York is more likely to turn on the soft side than either of the two other meetings featured today so I’ve based my analysis on ground with give in it. A 20 runner class 2 one mile handicap is up next and as one would expect is a tough contest to crack. I do like William Haggas’s Substantial already a soft ground winner but don’t like his draw in 19 although if they migrate to the stands side it may not be such a bad draw. John Quinn’s Empirestateofmind loves to get his hooves in and comes here in excellent shape having finished runner up in handicaps at Hamilton and Doncaster this Autumn. He’s drawn in stall 5 so I’ll take him to take this and a small each way saver on Substantial.
 
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
SUBSTANTIAL 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 Boylesports 1/5th 123456
 
Newmarket 3.00
The key is the ground to this eight runner Group 2 Challenge Stakes. William Haggas’s Sacred was very impressive last time when dropped in class but loves to hear her hooves rattle so wouldn’t like any ease in the ground. On genuine fast ground she would be a strong fancy but with the overnight rain and prospect of watering I’ll pass her over at the likely price of around 5/4. I’ll take her on with the Charlie Hills entire Pogo. He’s been very consistent this season and looks sure to run his race. A winner of two Group 3’s this Summer at Haydock and here at the July course he had Sacred 5L behind when runner up to the subsequent dual winner Kinross at York in August. He was pulled out here at the Cambridgeshire meeting as the ground was deemed too slow so like Sacred he too wouldn’t want the conditions to ease. At the prices I’ll take Pogo to turn over Sacred with William Buick doing the steering and if all eight stand their ground looks a bet to nothing.
 
POGO 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 Coral 1/5th 123
 
York 3.15
Only thirteen have declared for this £100k sales contest run over 7F. Slow ground won’t deter Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who looks one of the better bets of the day. He’s unbeaten in four starts culminating in a length victory in a similar type of contest as this at The Curragh in September on soft ground. Official ratings have him 3lb superior to his two main rivals Shouldhavebeenaring and Coco Jack but he’s still progressing and as long as a wide draw in thirteen isn’t a hinderance will be a tough nut to crack.
 
STREETS OF GOLD 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill
 
Newmarket 3.35
Eight go to post for the Group 1 Fillies Mile for two year olds. We have a very warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained Commissioning who will be very hard to beat. An impressive winner on her debut at the July course here she proved that was no fluke when winning the Rockfel over 7F here a fortnight ago looking to all as though an extra furlong will suit her down to the ground. A reproduction of that sparkling effort should be more than enough to take this. Official ratings have her 6lb and upwards ahead of this field with Harry Dunlop’s Group 2 May Hill winner Polly Pot looking the filly most likely to chase the favourite home. A no bet race for me at the prices.
 
York 3.50
A highly competitive fourteen runner class 2 handicap run over 1m 6F where Newmarket handler William Haggas has a strong hand with current favourite Nathanael Greene who appreciated first time cheek pieces when winning in the mud at Haydock last time out from subsequent St Leger placed Giavellotto. He should be thereabouts along with Haggas’s other runner Post Impressionist who is one of four who filled four of the first five places in a very rough contest at Haydock a fortnight ago. Only 3/4L covered winner Double Cherry, Zain Nights (3rd), Post Impressionist (4th but placed 3rd) and Flamborough (5th). A messier race you won’t find all season and watching the race back I felt there was several hard luck stories, none more so that Post Impressionist who’s jockey Adam Farragher had to sit up and suffer inside the final furlong. Roger Varian saddles the progressive Aimeric, a Ayr winner last time and now two pound higher. A tough race but I’ll back both of the Haggas runners.
 
NATHANAEL GREENE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365
POST IMPRESSIONIST 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Newmarket 4.10
A bumper field of sixteen go to post for this valuable class 2 Old Rowley Cup Handicap run over 1m 4F of the Rowley Mile. It’s an open contest with many holding chances. William Haggas’s La Yakel struck on his handicap debut at Ascot a month ago with Charlie Appleby’s First Ruler a length back in third and now 4lb better off. There shouldn’t be much between that pair and both can run well. Caius Chorister flopped last time in France but that may have been down to the soft ground and is not out of this. Charlie Appleby saddles four runners with the aforementioned First Ruler under William Buick his most likely winner. William Haggas also has a second bow to his string with The King’s Educator who flopped when well backed at Salisbury last week. He’ll need to have improved plenty to take a hand in the finish here mind. The top weight Maksud looks very interesting in a first time hood. He’s shown useful form despite taking a keen hold and if the hood helps him to settle could run well. I’ll take him to small stakes each way with the additional places in the hope the hood works the oracle.
 
MAKSUD 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

An excellent day with 5 winners from 8 races at odds of 4/1 (25p R4), 10/1, 4/1, 2/1 and 8/1 with also a couple of places. A profit of 28.4 points on the day. Tomorrows thoughts/selections were uploaded as per usual just before 9 AM this morning. 

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Cloth Cap non runner due to ground I think. Will replace with Some Chaos as he’s  a little bit in front of those behind .

Ludlow , Exeter , Wincanton all abandoned this week because of good to firm ground , Huntingdon managed 2 races I think on Tuesday & lots of non runners at Chepstow today because of the fast ground , roll on the rains .

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Ludlow , Exeter , Wincanton all abandoned this week because of good to firm ground , Huntingdon managed 2 races I think on Tuesday & lots of non runners at Chepstow today because of the fast ground , roll on the rains .

Not ideal is it. It seems no amount of watering can replace good old natural watering from Mother Earth . Chepstow has had some rain today but won’t effect the going too much tomorrow. Hopefully it can turn to Good from G/F . 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

535 york 

Yanifer 8.2 11/2 

Astral beau  8.0 5/1 

Shark two one  7.7 20/1 

3x 5pt wins ....

1pt doubles top 2 4 races ...240 y....Rowley Cup...425y ...535y

1st and 2nd ....just missed out on double with empire finishing 2nd ...unlucky 

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Vintage Clarets     4 25 Yrk     1/20th of a pt  ew  28/1

Nordic Empire    4 25 Yrk       1/10 of a pt win  6/1

Isla Kai                 2 40 Yrk       1/10  of a pt win    12/1

Maksud                4 10 Nwm    1/10   of a pt win     12/1

Viva Sistina           5 50 Nwm     1/20 th of a pt win   16/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +161 pts     

vintage clarets  2nd  { each way money  ]

Isla Kai     3rd

Viva Sistina   2nd  { should have won a minute ?}  not his best ride  stable have left some hefty bets behind

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alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
On 10/6/2022 at 5:15 PM, alexcaruso808 said:

 

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result
York 14:05 Betweenthesticks 7.00 / EW 3 places 1st ?
  14:40 Isla Kai 17.00 / EW 5 places 3rd ?
  15:50 The Gadget Man 12.00 / ew 4 places 3rd
  17:35 Shark Two One 17.00 / ew 5 places 8th
         
Newmarket 15:35 Polly Pott 10.00 / EW 3 places 4th
         
Newcastle 17:45 Citizen General 3.75 / win 1st ?
  20:15 Blazing Hot 5.00 / win 1st ?

Good luck everyone ?

 

Excellent day for me.  Thanks to everyone for your tips.  

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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Bang on said:

Well, a wipeout yesterday. Hope to get some back today.

4.30 Chep - Sonigino - 2pts win - 5/2

5.35 York - Guess - 1pt EW - 6/1 (1/5th 5 places)

5.45 Newc - Citizen General - 3pts win - 5/4

5.50 Nmkt - Ville de Grace - 2pts EW (1/5th 4 places)

6.45 Newc - Wild Lion - 2pts win - 7/4

13pts staked

A better day today, got most of yesterdays losses back with just over 13 points profit.

Sonigino - WON R4 10p

Guess - 3rd 7/1

Citizen General - WON 13/8

Ville de Grace - 3rd - very small loss as 3rd 

Wild Lion - WON

October stands at +29.23pts

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