Racing Chat- Friday 7th October

[Tedthewolf]

2.40 York- Putting this up early as it is already a BOG race with Bet365 Paying 5p 1/5 odds.

ISLA KAI 16/1 e/w- Fair draw  good mark  3lb claimer on top  a front runner who may be hard to catch off current mark & forget last run when last of eleven that was over 2f longer never going to get home over that trip well worth  e/w bet at 16/1 in this in my book!! 

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.40 York- Putting this up early as it is already a BOG race with Bet365 Paying 5p 1/5 odds.

ISLA KAI 16/1 e/w- Fair draw  good mark  3lb claimer on top  a front runner who may be hard to catch off current mark & forget last run when last of eleven that was over 2f longer never going to get home over that trip well worth  e/w bet at 16/1 in this in my book!! 

Good luck , some good racing on ITV4 Friday & the official start of Winter Jumps season at Chepstow in which I imagine Paul Nicholls will target heavily , hope the going at Newmarket & York stay no worse than good ?

[richard-westwood]

240 york 

Arthurs realm  8.6 9/1 

Empirestatemind  8.4 10/1 

Isla kai    8.0

What's the story 7.7

Redarna 7.7

I'll try 5pt ew top 2 rated and 1pt rev forecast 

Edited October 5, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Tedthewolf]

 I am always glad to see the ones i fancy in your top list of ratings Rich i have done Isla but may do what's the story nearer the time not sure yet.

[Tedthewolf]

2.35 Chepstow - Two small bets for me Win bet on last years winner SOME CHAOS 5/1 bog corals & e/w AL ROC 25/1  3 places with bert365 (only 7 runners) bog Pipe horses  do well here and Al just may lead them a merry dance from the front.

[The Brigadier]

Chepstow 1.35

Run just short of three miles this class 2 handicap chase is for veterans and has attracted a small field of seven. Top weight is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Cloth Cap who it must be said was very disappointing last season although has fallen 12lb in the weights for his below par efforts. Not seen since pulling up at 33/1 in the Grand National in April I’m happy to take him on. The one I fancy here has pulled up on four his last six starts! Michael Scudamore is an underrated trainer who saddles Some Chaos and is the pick despite not been seen for 172 days. He defied a similar absence in this event last season when a cosy winner off of 140 under todays pilot Ben Poste and can repeat that victory off of a handicap mark of 138. Some firms are paying three places on this seven runner race so let’s back him each way with the additional place.

 

SOME CHAOS 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5 123

 

Newmarket 1.50

A feast of quality racing at Headquarters kicks off with the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes for two year olds over 5F. A dozen speedsters line up with a warm favourite in the Keith Dagleish trained Prince Of Pillo who runs in the Middleham Park colours. He put a disappointing run at Doncaster on soft ground behind him when an impressive winner of the listed Harry Roseberry at Ayr last month. He had that race won some way out and the form has been boosted by the subsequent victory of the runner up Bolt Action. If he can reproduce that form he’ll be very hard to beat. Michael O’Callaghan’s Crispy Cat was just ahead of the selection at Doncaster and may be the one to chase home the favourite.

 

PRINCE OF PILLO 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365

 

Chepstow 2.10

Eight novices assemble for the 2m 3 1/2F grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle. The highest rated of them is the Donald McCain trained Presentandcounting who’s gone off favourite for his last five starts winning four of them. This is his stiffest task to date mind. Dan Skelton’s Quid Pro Quo looks short enough in the betting having won both his hurdle starts in five and six runner fields. He could win this but at around the 7/4 mark represents no value at all. Harry Fry’s Deeper Blue is of more interest as he was runner up at this meeting last season to Stage Star before winning a maiden hurdle and handicap hurdle in March. A race in which to watch with the future in mind so just a tentative each way bet on Deeper Blue.

 

DEEPER BLUE 1/2 bet each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 123

 

 

Newmarket 2.25

Eleven two year old fillies go to post for the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes and the race does have a rather open look about it. Tom Clover’s Crystallium is unbeaten in two starts at Chelmsford and Newbury and should be competitive. The highest rated here is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Rage Of Bamby who undoubtably brings the best piece of form to the table with her 4L third in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes a fortnight ago to Commissioning. Lose Yourself is a very interesting runner for the very much in form Ralph Beckett stable. She made a winning racecourse debut when winning on soft ground here on the July course back in August. That form has worked out well with the 2nd, 4th & 6th all winning since. She was nicely backed that day and looks worth chancing today despite the rise in grade. Rossa Ryan was on board for her debut and retains the ride today.

 

LOSE YOURSELF 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

York 2.40

If my weather forecast is correct York is more likely to turn on the soft side than either of the two other meetings featured today so I’ve based my analysis on ground with give in it. A 20 runner class 2 one mile handicap is up next and as one would expect is a tough contest to crack. I do like William Haggas’s Substantial already a soft ground winner but don’t like his draw in 19 although if they migrate to the stands side it may not be such a bad draw. John Quinn’s Empirestateofmind loves to get his hooves in and comes here in excellent shape having finished runner up in handicaps at Hamilton and Doncaster this Autumn. He’s drawn in stall 5 so I’ll take him to take this and a small each way saver on Substantial.

 

EMPIRESTATEOFMIND 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

SUBSTANTIAL 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 Boylesports 1/5th 123456

 

Newmarket 3.00

The key is the ground to this eight runner Group 2 Challenge Stakes. William Haggas’s Sacred was very impressive last time when dropped in class but loves to hear her hooves rattle so wouldn’t like any ease in the ground. On genuine fast ground she would be a strong fancy but with the overnight rain and prospect of watering I’ll pass her over at the likely price of around 5/4. I’ll take her on with the Charlie Hills entire Pogo. He’s been very consistent this season and looks sure to run his race. A winner of two Group 3’s this Summer at Haydock and here at the July course he had Sacred 5L behind when runner up to the subsequent dual winner Kinross at York in August. He was pulled out here at the Cambridgeshire meeting as the ground was deemed too slow so like Sacred he too wouldn’t want the conditions to ease. At the prices I’ll take Pogo to turn over Sacred with William Buick doing the steering and if all eight stand their ground looks a bet to nothing.

 

POGO 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 Coral 1/5th 123

 

York 3.15

Only thirteen have declared for this £100k sales contest run over 7F. Slow ground won’t deter Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who looks one of the better bets of the day. He’s unbeaten in four starts culminating in a length victory in a similar type of contest as this at The Curragh in September on soft ground. Official ratings have him 3lb superior to his two main rivals Shouldhavebeenaring and Coco Jack but he’s still progressing and as long as a wide draw in thirteen isn’t a hinderance will be a tough nut to crack.

 

STREETS OF GOLD 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.35

Eight go to post for the Group 1 Fillies Mile for two year olds. We have a very warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained Commissioning who will be very hard to beat. An impressive winner on her debut at the July course here she proved that was no fluke when winning the Rockfel over 7F here a fortnight ago looking to all as though an extra furlong will suit her down to the ground. A reproduction of that sparkling effort should be more than enough to take this. Official ratings have her 6lb and upwards ahead of this field with Harry Dunlop’s Group 2 May Hill winner Polly Pot looking the filly most likely to chase the favourite home. A no bet race for me at the prices.

 

York 3.50

A highly competitive fourteen runner class 2 handicap run over 1m 6F where Newmarket handler William Haggas has a strong hand with current favourite Nathanael Greene who appreciated first time cheek pieces when winning in the mud at Haydock last time out from subsequent St Leger placed Giavellotto. He should be thereabouts along with Haggas’s other runner Post Impressionist who is one of four who filled four of the first five places in a very rough contest at Haydock a fortnight ago. Only 3/4L covered winner Double Cherry, Zain Nights (3rd), Post Impressionist (4th but placed 3rd) and Flamborough (5th). A messier race you won’t find all season and watching the race back I felt there was several hard luck stories, none more so that Post Impressionist who’s jockey Adam Farragher had to sit up and suffer inside the final furlong. Roger Varian saddles the progressive Aimeric, a Ayr winner last time and now two pound higher. A tough race but I’ll back both of the Haggas runners.

 

NATHANAEL GREENE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

POST IMPRESSIONIST 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 4.10

A bumper field of sixteen go to post for this valuable class 2 Old Rowley Cup Handicap run over 1m 4F of the Rowley Mile. It’s an open contest with many holding chances. William Haggas’s La Yakel struck on his handicap debut at Ascot a month ago with Charlie Appleby’s First Ruler a length back in third and now 4lb better off. There shouldn’t be much between that pair and both can run well. Caius Chorister flopped last time in France but that may have been down to the soft ground and is not out of this. Charlie Appleby saddles four runners with the aforementioned First Ruler under William Buick his most likely winner. William Haggas also has a second bow to his string with The King’s Educator who flopped when well backed at Salisbury last week. He’ll need to have improved plenty to take a hand in the finish here mind. The top weight Maksud looks very interesting in a first time hood. He’s shown useful form despite taking a keen hold and if the hood helps him to settle could run well. I’ll take him to small stakes each way with the additional places in the hope the hood works the oracle.

 

MAKSUD 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

[richard-westwood]

I Need to get some practice in with jumps .....it needs a completely diff formula to the flat so I Need to get some race practice in before tackling the big races 

135 chep 

Cloth cap  9.0 5/2 

Some chaos  8.7 

Mighty Don  8.2 

Broken quest  8.2 

10pt win cloth cap 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

I Need to get some practice in with jumps .....it needs a completely diff formula to the flat so I Need to get some race practice in before tackling the big races 

Indeed. Also should we treat hurdles and chases differently ?

[richard-westwood]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Indeed. Also should we treat hurdles and chases differently ?

I do tbh ....I don't translate 1 to the other ....I know some horses can do it but most are better at 1 than the other and hurdles is more emphasis on speed whereas chases are 50/50 speed and skill ....so I think very much so ....also on the jumps distance is a big thing ....I.e there's a big diff from a horse staying 3mile and one staying 3m 2f .....that's what I mean its a lot more complex over jumps 

Edited October 6, 2022 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Old Rowley cup 

Maksud  8.6  9/1 

Paradias   8.4 25/1 

Sheer rocks  8.2 40/1 

Cauis chorister 7.9 

5pt wins top 3 ....3x rev forcasts top 3 

[alexcaruso808]

Course	Time	Selection	Odds / Bet Type	Result
York	14:05	Betweenthesticks	7.00 / EW 3 places
	14:40	Isla Kai	17.00 / EW 5 places
	15:50	The Gadget Man	12.00 / ew 4 places
	17:35	Shark Two One	17.00 / ew 5 places
Newmarket	15:35	Polly Pott	10.00 / EW 3 places
Newcastle	17:45	Citizen General	3.75 / win
	20:15	Blazing Hot	5.00 / win

 

 

Good luck everyone ?

[calva decoy]

Record button set for tomorrow's racing but £10k ITV7 & few bets done to watch when get in .

210 Chepstow - OUTLAW PETER 15/2 sky bet ( 4 places ) 2nd ( 25p rule 4 ) 

225 Newmarket - RAGE OF BARMBY ?

240 York - WHAT'S THE STORY 12/1 bet365 ( 5 places ) 5th 16/1 

315 York - STREETS OF GOLD 1st 

335 Newmarket - COMMISIONING  1st 

350 York - ZAIN NIGHTS 10/1 sky bet ( 5 places ) ?

410 Newmarket - SEA KING 12/1 bet365 ( 5 places ) ?

nothing on the highlights really stood out .

Edited October 7, 2022 by calva decoy
results update

[Tedthewolf]

4.25 york Two  small e/w bets GOOD EARTH  14/1 bog 5p ran ok on last week   fair price should go well again & JAWWAAL 25/1 boosred to 28 /1 not bog 5 places on a very good mark 7lb claimer on not been in great form  but  could well pop in soon at a price.

[Tedthewolf]

On 10/5/2022 at 5:24 PM, Tedthewolf said:

2.40 York- Putting this up early as it is already a BOG race with Bet365 Paying 5p 1/5 odds.

ISLA KAI 16/1 e/w- Fair draw  good mark  3lb claimer on top  a front runner who may be hard to catch off current mark & forget last run when last of eleven that was over 2f longer never going to get home over that trip well worth  e/w bet at 16/1 in this in my book!! 

Will add another one to this race was a toss up between what the  story & LA TRINIDAD   14/1 bog 5 places the latter getting the nod fair 4th last year  a couple of lbs lighter this time  can't see why it won't go well again fair e/w bet at 14's for me.

[richard-westwood]

425 york 

Nomadic empire  8.6  11/2 

Alligator alley   8.4 15/2 

Copper Knight  8.1 

Good earth  7.9 

Catch cunningham  7.9 

Very competitive supersprint ...I'll try 10pt wins top 2 

[Tedthewolf]

4.10 Newmarket  Two  e/w Thundering 16/1 5p bog  & SEA KING 12/1 bog 5p small e/w in a wide open contest

[Villa Chris]

Start of the jumps season is upon us which grabs my interest way more than flat racing. 
 

1.35 Chepstow 

Cloth Cap 9.7 5/2

Some Chaos 9.45 4/1

Al Roc 8.96 16/1

Mighty Don  8.93 11/2

Cloth Cap didn’t do much last year, but probably still retains that bit of class to take this, although will need to hit the ground running. Al Roc is a good price, although very inconsistent. 
 

5 points win Cloth Cap 5/2 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

535 york 

Yanifer 8.2 11/2 

Astral beau  8.0 5/1 

Shark two one  7.7 20/1 

3x 5pt wins ....

1pt doubles top 2 4 races ...240 y....Rowley Cup...425y ...535y

[alexcaruso808]

Looks like I'm spending a fortune on Friday's racing ?

[kensland]

Have to, Ralph Becketts entries 

Newmarket. 

Single. 

2.25. Lose Yourself.          5/1.     (.backed this one last time out, won by 5 lengths.) 

Newmarket. 

Double. 

4.45. Nigiri.         9/2

5.50. State Occasion.   6/1

singles & double 

York. 

3.50. The Gadget Man.       10/1

5.35. Guess.                 6/1

singles & double. ew 

Good luck all. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by kensland

[maxironchin]

3.00 Newmarket

Umm Kulthum 1pt EW

The selection lost at Doncaster about a month ago by just a neck - with a 2lb higher rating compared with today and over a similar distance.. Also has won at Newmarket, albeit over only 6f and it was two years' back. I like her chances, particularly at the odds of 14/1.

[kensland]

Compiege.

Single.

4.10. Pink Carnation...  4/1

Good luck all.

[Villa Chris]

In regards to flats v jumps . I find that form is more relevant on the flats than it is over Jumps. Just an observation .

[black rabbit]

Vintage Clarets     4 25 Yrk     1/20th of a pt  ew  28/1

Nordic Empire    4 25 Yrk       1/10 of a pt win  6/1

Isla Kai                 2 40 Yrk       1/10  of a pt win    12/1

Maksud                4 10 Nwm    1/10   of a pt win     12/1

Viva Sistina           5 50 Nwm     1/20 th of a pt win   16/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +161 pts     

Edited October 7, 2022 by black rabbit

[jonjo]

3.00 Newmarket Happy to take 4.1 on betfair about Pogo last night. Had todays main rival and todays favourite, Sacred, 5 lengths behind on exactly the same terms as today when they met at York in a Group 2 at the end of August. Sacred has come out to win a Listed race easily but has been found wanting against genuine Group opposition previously. 

One over the water  is Glen Ava in the 5.20 Downpatrick, this one has improved in leaps and bounds since joining Ian Jardine, was rated 84 before moving to the Scottish handler and is now a 109 rated hurdler. Going back to Ireland today for a chase means he gets in off just 84 for this handicap. His previous efforts of the bigger obstacles were not exactly inspiring but if Jardine has improved his jumping then this could be a good bit of placement by the Scottish trainer, yard is in decent form with two winners yesterday and is 2/4 with his Irish raiders.  Danger is one running for the first time for a stable ? in the likely fav Walking The Walk.

Good luck today.

[Tedthewolf]

14 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

4.25 york Two  small e/w bets GOOD EARTH  14/1 bog 5p ran ok on last week   fair price should go well again & JAWWAAL 25/1 boosred to 28 /1 not bog 5 places on a very good mark 7lb claimer on not been in great form  but  could well pop in soon at a price.

Good Earth a NR  have replaced with KAPE MOSS 18/1 bog 5p back to 5f   will suit only just beat by Matrice at Doncaster who is only 8/1today  has the beating of it this time imo  and at 18;s looks value from a good draw in a wide open race.

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

In regards to flats v jumps . I find that form is more relevant on the flats than it is over Jumps. Just an observation .

I agree. I make a profit on the flat (especially all weather) but struggle on the AW. At least on the flat the horses don't fall (well not often !).

[maxironchin]

16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree. I make a profit on the flat (especially all weather) but struggle on the Jumps. At least on the flat the horses don't fall (well not often !).

I am confused. Do you mean you struggle on the jumps?

[Villa Chris]

14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree. I make a profit on the flat (especially all weather) but struggle on the AW. At least on the flat the horses don't fall (well not often !).

Only noticed it this year in all honesty. Flat horses seem to hold their form a bit better. I’ve hardly bothered with the flats this year it just doesn’t interest me as much. More of a connection and a buzz with the jumps I think . 

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, maxironchin said:

I am confused. Do you mean you struggle on the jumps?

Yep, apologies, I've now corrected it.