Racing Chat - Wednesday July 27th

[The Brigadier]

Goodwood 1.50

Day two of the Goodwood Festival kicks off with a class 2 12F three year old handicap. I don’t like tipping favourites but sometimes they just stand out and although only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years in this race I can’t get away from Charlie Appleby’s top weight Secret State. A winner of his last three starts having started his career with a second spot in the Wood Ditton behind the smart Francesco Clemente with his latest victory coming in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot from the subsequent group 3 winner Deauville Legend. 2 1/2L back in 6th that day was Andrew Balding’s Teumessias Fox whilst George Baker’s Surrey Mist was just behind and the Haggas runner Mandobi was a further 5 1/2L further back. That trio re-oppose on 4lb, 7lb and 8lb better terms respectively but I fully expect William Buick’s mount to confirm the form and enhance his St Leger claims for which he’s currently only a 14/1 chance. Surrey Mist may actually come out the best of the three behind him that day and chase him home.

 

SECRET STATE 3 points win @ 9/4 bet365

 

Goodwood 2.25

A bumper field of seventeen assemble for the group 3 Oak Tree Stakes and it does have an open look about it this year. Pushing for favouritism currently is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Soft Whisper who had four of these in Bounce The Blues, Improvised, She Do and Internationalagent behind when winning at Chelmsford last time. She should confirm the form with that quartet but I don’t like his wide draw in 16 of 17 and I can pass her over. The other top rated on official ratings here is the Richard Hannon trained Heredia, a good winner of the Sandringham at Royal Ascot but a bit disappointing when very well supported in a Sandown listed contest last time. She drops a furlong today and has claims but I like Oscula who actually finished a length ahead of Heredia at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today. I’m surprised she’s twice the price of the Hannon filly especially after a good effort at Ascot last Saturday behind Jumbly. The other runner I like is Ed Walker’s Primo Bacio who has ideal conditions today and wasn’t disgraced in a group one last time. I’ll dutch the pair of Oscula and Primo Bacio here who both have favourable low draws and just hope they don’t find too much trouble in running.

 

OSCULA 1 point win @ 11/1 William Hill

PRIMO BACIO 1 point win @ 17/2 William Hill

 

Goodwood 3.00

Eight go to post for the group 3 Molecomb Stakes and I really can’t see past the favourite Rocket Rodney who will be very hard to beat. George Scott’s flag bearer has the best form and has shown his liking for this switchback course having won a novices stakes race over course and distance here in April prior to an excellent neck runner up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot to Little Big Bear (impressive winner since) with Eddies Boy (winner of valuable sales race since) back in third. He stands out here and is the days best bet. David Loughnane’s Walbank looks his chief danger having finished runner up in the group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot to The Ridler. Eddies Boy is held on Ascot form by the selection and this should be a point and shoot job for Daniel Muscott.

 

ROCKET RODNEY 4 points win @ 5/4 William Hill

 

Goodwood 3.35

Only seven go to post for the group one Sussex Stakes following the eleventh hour defection of 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus and it looks a penalty kick for the smart Baaeed. William Haggas’s Shadwell Stud owned four year old is now unbeaten in eight starts and as he already holds most of these on earlier form should be winning. Last years winner Alcohol Free comes here on the back of a July Cup victory over 6F but is held by the favourite on earlier form. He’s at prohibitive odds but should be a banker for any acca bet.

 

Goodwood 4.10

A class 2 nine runner fillies handicap run over just short of ten furlongs is up next. William Haggas’s Sea Speedwell is making her handicap debut and under Tom Marquand appears to hold claims. Also on the short list has to be the John and Thady Gosden trained Natasha who wasn’t disgraced in a similar contest at Newmarket twelve days ago. Hughie Morrison’s Lyrical Lady ran a smashing race in listed company last time when only 6L behind the useful Grande Dame. She has paid the penalty for that mind with a rise of 11lb. A tough race but in the hope that the Gosden runner has come forward for her recent re-appearance I’m with Natasha.

 

NATASHA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365

 

Goodwood 4.45

The ITV terrestrial coverage finishes with a ten runner two year old fillies’ conditions stakes. A warm favourite here is the Richard Fahey trained The Platinum Queen who on official ratings has plenty in hand here. A winner at Ripon on her debut in June she may have found the Queen Mary all too much a fortnight later when finishing down the field as a 66/1 shot. She bounced back however three weeks later when dominating from the gate to take a nine runner field apart at York from odds on favourite Yahsat. Oisin Orr has ridden the Cotai Glory juvenile in all three of her racecourse starts and keeps the partnership intact today and will be hard to beat. All The Time was ultra impressive on her debut when an impressive 5L winner at Nottingham but blew out in the Queen Mary (some 7L behind The Platinum Queen) finishing plum last. She’s no doubt better than that but has questions to answer now and this can go to the The Platinum Queen

 

THE PLATINUM QUEEN 3 points win 11/8 William Hill

THE PLATINUM QUEEN / ROCKET RODNEY 2 point win double. 11/8 & 5/4 William Hill

[richard-westwood]

Good 150 

Secret state  8.5 9/4 

Teumessias fox  8.3 18/1 

Soulcombe  8.3  5/1 

I'll try ew on 2nd and 3rd rated 5pts ew both 4 places 

[richard-westwood]

520 good 

Mum's tipple  8.2 7/1 

Amor vincit omnia 8.0 16/1 

Bowman  7.8 14/1 

Titan rock 7.4 

4pt ew top 3... 6places 

[kensland]

 

Double. 

4.10. Good. State Occasion.      11/2.     1st 

6.20. Sand. Boom Boom Pow.          11/4... unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited July 27, 2022 by kensland

[kensland]

Sandown. 

Single. 

8.30. Suspicious.              6/1.  W. D. 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

Galway Plate , 22 go to post 

Ratings Prediction 

1 Easy Game 9/1

2 The Shunter 15/2

3 Ash Tree Meadow 9/1

Ash Tree Meadow fits the weight trend below 11st  and Gordon Elliot has a fantastic record in this race , although 4 out of the first 5 home last year was carrying more than 11st with top weight Easy Game finishing a very close second . He arrives this year probably a better horse than he’s ever been and is used to carrying big weights in handicaps races and winning. The Shunter will probably run its race and be primed for this , but I can’t help but feel he’s a bit high in weights to win this and hasn’t got the class that Easy Game has.  
 

 

5 points win Easy Game / 5 points win Ash Tree Meadow .  

 

[cannotbebeat]

2.45 Goodwood - Soft Whisper 6/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[richard-westwood]

225 good 

Miss Carol Ann 8.7 16/1

Heredia  8.5  5/1 

Benefit  8.4  9/1 

3x 3pt ew 6 places 

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures for the 2 yo races at Goodwood

Nothing much exciting here but...

300

1 Walbank           127      9/2

2 rocket rodney  126       1/1

3 eddies boy       123       7/1

445

1 platinum queen 130    5/6

2 star of lady m    124    6/1

3 union court        122   10/1

I think i will have a sporting dble on union court and walbank

[Villa Chris]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Speed figures for the 2 yo races at Goodwood

Nothing much exciting here but...

300

1 Walbank           127      9/2

2 rocket rodney  126       1/1

3 eddies boy       123       7/1

445

1 platinum queen 130    5/6

2 star of lady m    124    6/1

3 union court        122   10/1

I think i will have a sporting dble on union court and walbank

Platinum queen looks like a nice bet for the big betting punter . Double her up with Baaeed and you get just over evens. 

[kensland]

Perth. 

Single. 

1.00. Topkapi Star.      4/1.... unpl 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by kensland

[azzybear]

Hoy 2.00

[black rabbit]

Muugader     1 50  GWD  1/5 pt win    15/1

Miss carol ann     2 25  GWD   1/5 pt win   22/1 

roman mist    2 25 GWD  1/5 pt win   70/1   

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   135.25  pts   

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

GOOD	3.00	Walbank (3)	9/2
GOOD	4.10	State Occasion (5)	5/1
GOOD	4.45	Star Of Lady M (1)	6/1

[The Equaliser]

Goodwood selections today

1.50 Secret State 2 pts win at 4.10 Class 2 winner should win this, my PL Nap

2.25 Benefit 0.5 win at 10/1

3.00 Trillium 0.5 win at 8/1

4.10 Rousay 0.5 win at 7/1

4.45 Union Court 0.5 win at 10/1

5.20 Mums Tipple 0.5 win at 6/1

Total stakes = 4.5 (not making the same mistake as yesterday in spending too many points on an afternoon's entertainment

I haven't looked at other meetings for a possible multiple bet but the bets favourite's price last night was 11/4

 

[MCLARKE]

Goodwood trends analysis

1.50

Last ran less than 21 days ago, 0 from 31

This leaves MUGADER, SECRET STATE, MAKSUD and MANDOBI

Drawn 1 - 3, 0 from 13

This leaves MUGADER and MANDOBI

Odds rank 9-10, 2 from 10, AE 3.68

This leaves MUGADER at 11/1, 4 places

 

 

[MCLARKE]

Goodwood trends analysis (continued)

3.00

Draw 1-5, 2 from 37

Odds < than 7/2, 1 from 8

Odds > 10/1, 0 from 42

This leaves TRILLIUM at 15/2

3.35

Draw > 5, 1 from 23

Last ran less than 33 days ago, 4 from 31, AE 1.82

Drawn 1-2, 0 from 16

Female horse, 1from 3, AE 2.70

This leaves ALCOHOL FREE at 11/1

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Just posting doing the  fence. 

First 2 winners with oscula giving a b365 fb.

Put on walbank, already had put on Eddie's boy mbo, 3pm

410 natasha

520 mums tipple

[MCLARKE]

Goodwood trends analysis (continued)

4.10

Last ran more than 18 days ago, 2 from 38

Top 6 in the weights, 1 from 30

Odds < 13/2, 1 from 15

This leaves ROUSAY at 7/1

5.20

1st or 2nd favourite, 0 from 23

1st or 2nd last time, 1 from 26

Not in 1st 6 last time, 0 from 54

Top 11 in the weights, 3 from 74

This leaves ANIMAL INSTINCT at 28/1, 5 places

 

[fd1972uk]

Horse is mental good. Was going to go ew on alcohol free but kept my pennies. Had bet baaed to win over length to qualify for free bet, used it on a treble but was beat by rocket Rodney.

[Tedthewolf]

5.20  GW  two  e/w for  me  DANCE FEVER 14/1  A bit hot and cold  i like the jockey booking  should  go well if a going day STUNNING BEAUTY 16/1 Godolphin 2nd string  interesting  dropped back to 7f could surprise .

Edited July 27, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[The Brigadier]

On 7/26/2022 at 8:27 AM, The Brigadier said:

Goodwood 1.50

Day two of the Goodwood Festival kicks off with a class 2 12F three year old handicap. I don’t like tipping favourites but sometimes they just stand out and although only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years in this race I can’t get away from Charlie Appleby’s top weight Secret State. A winner of his last three starts having started his career with a second spot in the Wood Ditton behind the smart Francesco Clemente with his latest victory coming in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot from the subsequent group 3 winner Deauville Legend. 2 1/2L back in 6th that day was Andrew Balding’s Teumessias Fox whilst George Baker’s Surrey Mist was just behind and the Haggas runner Mandobi was a further 5 1/2L further back. That trio re-oppose on 4lb, 7lb and 8lb better terms respectively but I fully expect William Buick’s mount to confirm the form and enhance his St Leger claims for which he’s currently only a 14/1 chance. Surrey Mist may actually come out the best of the three behind him that day and chase him home.

 

SECRET STATE 3 points win @ 9/4 bet365

 

Goodwood 2.25

A bumper field of seventeen assemble for the group 3 Oak Tree Stakes and it does have an open look about it this year. Pushing for favouritism currently is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Soft Whisper who had four of these in Bounce The Blues, Improvised, She Do and Internationalagent behind when winning at Chelmsford last time. She should confirm the form with that quartet but I don’t like his wide draw in 16 of 17 and I can pass her over. The other top rated on official ratings here is the Richard Hannon trained Heredia, a good winner of the Sandringham at Royal Ascot but a bit disappointing when very well supported in a Sandown listed contest last time. She drops a furlong today and has claims but I like Oscula who actually finished a length ahead of Heredia at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today. I’m surprised she’s twice the price of the Hannon filly especially after a good effort at Ascot last Saturday behind Jumbly. The other runner I like is Ed Walker’s Primo Bacio who has ideal conditions today and wasn’t disgraced in a group one last time. I’ll dutch the pair of Oscula and Primo Bacio here who both have favourable low draws and just hope they don’t find too much trouble in running.

 

OSCULA 1 point win @ 11/1 William Hill

PRIMO BACIO 1 point win @ 17/2 William Hill

 

Goodwood 3.00

Eight go to post for the group 3 Molecomb Stakes and I really can’t see past the favourite Rocket Rodney who will be very hard to beat. George Scott’s flag bearer has the best form and has shown his liking for this switchback course having won a novices stakes race over course and distance here in April prior to an excellent neck runner up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot to Little Big Bear (impressive winner since) with Eddies Boy (winner of valuable sales race since) back in third. He stands out here and is the days best bet. David Loughnane’s Walbank looks his chief danger having finished runner up in the group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot to The Ridler. Eddies Boy is held on Ascot form by the selection and this should be a point and shoot job for Daniel Muscott.

 

ROCKET RODNEY 4 points win @ 5/4 William Hill

 

Goodwood 3.35

Only seven go to post for the group one Sussex Stakes following the eleventh hour defection of 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus and it looks a penalty kick for the smart Baaeed. William Haggas’s Shadwell Stud owned four year old is now unbeaten in eight starts and as he already holds most of these on earlier form should be winning. Last years winner Alcohol Free comes here on the back of a July Cup victory over 6F but is held by the favourite on earlier form. He’s at prohibitive odds but should be a banker for any acca bet.

 

Goodwood 4.10

A class 2 nine runner fillies handicap run over just short of ten furlongs is up next. William Haggas’s Sea Speedwell is making her handicap debut and under Tom Marquand appears to hold claims. Also on the short list has to be the John and Thady Gosden trained Natasha who wasn’t disgraced in a similar contest at Newmarket twelve days ago. Hughie Morrison’s Lyrical Lady ran a smashing race in listed company last time when only 6L behind the useful Grande Dame. She has paid the penalty for that mind with a rise of 11lb. A tough race but in the hope that the Gosden runner has come forward for her recent re-appearance I’m with Natasha.

 

NATASHA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365

 

Goodwood 4.45

The ITV terrestrial coverage finishes with a ten runner two year old fillies’ conditions stakes. A warm favourite here is the Richard Fahey trained The Platinum Queen who on official ratings has plenty in hand here. A winner at Ripon on her debut in June she may have found the Queen Mary all too much a fortnight later when finishing down the field as a 66/1 shot. She bounced back however three weeks later when dominating from the gate to take a nine runner field apart at York from odds on favourite Yahsat. Oisin Orr has ridden the Cotai Glory juvenile in all three of her racecourse starts and keeps the partnership intact today and will be hard to beat. All The Time was ultra impressive on her debut when an impressive 5L winner at Nottingham but blew out in the Queen Mary (some 7L behind The Platinum Queen) finishing plum last. She’s no doubt better than that but has questions to answer now and this can go to the The Platinum Queen

 

THE PLATINUM QUEEN 3 points win 11/8 William Hill

THE PLATINUM QUEEN / ROCKET RODNEY 2 point win double. 11/8 & 5/4 William Hill

Another decent day. 3 winners from 5 races at 11/4, 11/1 and 11/8 for a healthy profit of 14.37 points. Thursday's selections were uploaded this morning.

[Villa Chris]

14 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Another decent day. 3 winners from 5 races at 11/4, 11/1 and 11/8 for a healthy profit of 14.37 points. Thursday's selections were uploaded this morning.

Well done again . I did notice you didn’t go ew on your 11/1 shot. I don’t blame you for not doing so, but why was the reason for that as I notice usually you’d go ew at that price . 

[The Brigadier]

34 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Well done again . I did notice you didn’t go ew on your 11/1 shot. I don’t blame you for not doing so, but why was the reason for that as I notice usually you’d go ew at that price . 

No real reason Chris - I found it hard to split the pair so on this occasion just split the bet - no rhyme nor reason to it tbh !

[Villa Chris]

11 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

No real reason Chris - I found it hard to split the pair so on this occasion just split the bet - no rhyme nor reason to it tbh !

Cheers ?

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Speed figures for the 2 yo races at Goodwood

Nothing much exciting here but...

300

1 Walbank           127      9/2

2 rocket rodney  126       1/1

3 eddies boy       123       7/1

445

1 platinum queen 130    5/6

2 star of lady m    124    6/1

3 union court        122   10/1

I think i will have a sporting dble on union court and walbank

300 was a bit of a bummer 2nd 3rd and 4th 

445 turned out quite profitable with the win F/C £6 and T/C £21 at these prices  i just do the TC aw which is 6 bets or as in this case if i think the fave is very strong which a 130 rating is i do straight T/C 1 2 3 and 1 3 2.

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Goodwood selections today

1.50 Secret State 2 pts win at 4.10 Class 2 winner should win this, my PL Nap

2.25 Benefit 0.5 win at 10/1

3.00 Trillium 0.5 win at 8/1

4.10 Rousay 0.5 win at 7/1

4.45 Union Court 0.5 win at 10/1

5.20 Mums Tipple 0.5 win at 6/1

Total stakes = 4.5 (not making the same mistake as yesterday in spending too many points on an afternoon's entertainment

I haven't looked at other meetings for a possible multiple bet but the bets favourite's price last night was 11/4

 

RESULTS UPDATE

That was much better today.  Not because I had two winners and made 8 points but because had all my selections lost I would have only lost 4.5 points for a whole afternoon's racing entertainment.  I don't suppose for one minute that I will ever be as frugal as @black rabbit but I have decided that for the rest of the year at least I will cap my stakes at 10 points per day.

My profit today was 8.08 which makes my MTD -42.49 and YTD -185.51.

We go again at Goodwood tomorrow with quite a few races with showing short-priced favourites.  There are other meetings with class 4 and upwards races; it is just finding the time to sift through them all, I find is the problem 

[MCLARKE]

On 7/27/2022 at 11:42 PM, The Equaliser said:

That was much better today.  Not because I had two winners and made 8 points but because had all my selections lost I would have only lost 4.5 points for a whole afternoon's racing entertainment.  I don't suppose for one minute that I will ever be as frugal as @black rabbit but I have decided that for the rest of the year at least I will cap my stakes at 10 points per day.

My profit today was 8.08 which makes my MTD -42.49 and YTD -185.51.

Your nap selections are making a very impressive return of 18% over the last 3 months.

If you had applied that to 10 points per day betting then your YTD figures would be + 332 rather than - 186. Better sticking to quality of bets rather than quantity.

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Your nap selections are making a very impressive return of 18% over the last 3 months.

If you had applied that to 10 points per day betting then your YTD figures would be + 332 rather than - 186. Better sticking to quality of bets rather than quantity.

Many thanks for your thoughts and analysis.  The success of the Nap bets has been based on trying to find selections that have the best chance under today's racing conditions. For example Secret State on the 27th of July at Goodwood.  It was the only horse that had good proven winning form in a class 2 event out of all the contenders in the race.  Maybe this was conclusive or maybe Charlie Appleby had his runners in such good nick was the reason why it won the race.  We will never know.  I think it is worthwhile pointing out that it is best to check out my nap selections when I mention them in the "Racing Chat" section.  This is because there are many factors that influence a selection in the "Nap" section throughout the month.  Some members just go for the big-priced winner throughout the month but others play a strategy around getting most winners firstly and then perhaps doing enough to get into the KO cup comp. Hence selections can be chosen with regard to all three scenarios.

I have come close on more than one occasion to wiping out my deficit this year with my multiple bets.

The point I was trying to make in my original post was to advise members to minimise their level of staking in the "Festival" events such as Goodwood.  How often have I read on the forum such lines as "I'm saving my money for xxx big festival".  I believe that this is a big mistake.  Unless one has a truly exceptional horse that one can rely upon to give its running and thrash the opposition (which is usually priced accordingly by the bookies anyway) these events are enshrouded by many, many trainers/owners trying to get a piece of the pie with their own runners.  This makes it very difficult to have a profitable strategy for anyone IMO.

I took part in the festivities along with my fellow members with the intention of having some fun and not losing too much money.  I screwed up on Tuesday 26th July by chasing losses mainly on trying to get my money back on runners not at Goodwood.  I lost almost 21 points

Sticking with the festival throughout the rest of the week has proved informative.  There have been many instances of horses coming out and winning races when based upon most recent form they just did not look up to running the race.  This got me thinking that the best approach especially with the handicaps is to have mainly three or sometimes four selections in a race. Break down a race between price bands 5/2 - 9/2, 5/1 - 9/1, 10/1 -20/1 and 22/1 +.  Now look for a selection in each category.  If you find them (though it is not mandatory) then stake as follows 1 pt 5/2 9/2, 0.6 pts 5/1 - 9/1, 0.3 pts 10/1 -20/1 and 0.15 pts 22/1 +.  Total stakes per race = 2.05 points.

I will have to go back on saying that I will cap my stakes to 10 points and make it around 20 per day to make this work properly so as to include my multiple bets that I love.

I am not ignoring what you say, if anyone just cares to look at my nap selections when mentioned in the "chat" section, and if they feel that the selection is a good bet along with their own criteria then good on them.  My mission is to find an approach for my fellow members to follow that will help them pick through the maze of imponderables that Racing throws up for us all and to do this in such a way that they enjoy their racing and hopefully come out on top at the end of the day.   

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

The point I was trying to make in my original post was to advise members to minimise their level of staking in the "Festival" events such as Goodwood. 

I suppose the beauty of the festivals is that because of the prize money all the horses will be "trying". It might be best to ignore the recent form and concentrate on their best form. Also a big advantage for me is the extra places that are offered at the festivals.