Racing Chat - Friday 8th July

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

The first of two heritage handicaps on the Newmarket card. This 10F three year olds only contest features two Charlie Appleby trained colts at the top of the handicap in Natural World who’s been gelded since last seen and New London who was well backed for the Epsom Derby before and after his Newmarket novice stakes win in April. He subsequently flopped when a 4/11 chance in the Chester Vase finishing 6 1/2L second to the easy winner Changingoftheguard. William Buick appears to have chosen him over Natural World and he looks sure to be involved in the finish dropping back in trip. I also like the Hughie Morrison trained Reelemin who impressed on his re-appearance when winning at Sandown and is worth a small stakes each way saver.

 

NEW LONDON 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365

REELEMIN 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 2.05

A eight runner class 3 12F handicap is up next with the weights headed by the Archie Watson trained Southern Voyage who hasn’t been seen for 273 days. In a race that doesn’t look likely to take much winning my fancy is the bottom weight My Little Queens who ran really well at Carlisle in the Cumberland Plate with a couple of these in El 
Picador and Strawman behind that day. Richard Fahey’s four year old is progressing well and should appreciate this extra furlong today under Silvestre De Sousa.

 

MY LITTLE QUEENS 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.25

A small but select field of only six go to post for this group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes which feature form lines from the big fillies two year old races at Royal Ascot. Michael Bell’s Havana Grey filly Maylandsea bumped into one in Dramatised when going down by 1 3/4L in the Queen Mary over 5F and should appreciate the step up a furlong here. Carmela was behind her that day and looks well held. The Albany Stakes form is represented by the the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mawj who finished runner up to Meditate with Queen Olly a length behind and Tagline a further 3/4L back in third. She looked like she would appreciate a seventh furlong that day but with the uphill finish on the July course can make her stamina pay late on and she looks the bet here for me. Ralph Beckett saddles Lezoo who’s looked useful in winning at Bath and Goodwood this season and with Frankie Dettori on board is also a player. A tough call between the three at the head of the market but my moneys on Mawj.

 

MAWJ 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

York 2.40

The group 3 Summer Stakes is a valuable 6F sprint for fillies and mares and has attracted a field of twelve. Flotus is the favourite and she ran really well when third in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and must have a leading chance here today for Simon and Ed Crisford and jockey Silvestre De Sousa. She’s been priced accordingly though and better value may lie with the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani, a half sister to the the stable’s group one winning sprinter Hello Youmzain. She was only a couple of lengths behind Flotus in that group one at Ascot and as that was her first outing for 272 days should come on for it and hopefully get a fair bit closer today. She looks the each way bet in the race to me. Ismail Mohammed’s Zain Claudette was another making her seasonal debut in the aforementioned Commonwealth Cup at Ascot finishing a couple of lengths behind the selection and is another with an each way chance. Clive Cox’s Benefit is also on the upgrade but I’m happy to play Hala Hala Athmani each way.

 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 1 1/2 points each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 3.00

The second of the heritage handicaps today. Run over 14F this class 2 race has attracted sixteen runners with the likely favourite the impressive Royal Ascot winner Candleford who blew his field apart when putting six lengths between himself and the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap over 12F with the extra two furlongs here likely to suit. He looked way ahead of his mark at Ascot and despite a 13lb rise can take this en route to a tilt at the Ebor Handicap at York next month. David and Nicola Barron’s Contact is an improving four year old who was 7 1/4L behind Candleford at Ascot and re-opposes on 13lb better terms so should get closer and he may be the biggest danger to the selection. The Gosden’s Trawlerman was further behind and looks held. Saeed Bin Suroor has his team in fine shape and saddles Dubai Welcome who too could be competitive.

 

CANDLEFORD 2 points win @ 7/2 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Newmarket 3.35

A no bet race here I’m afraid with Inspiral looking the proverbial good thing having bolted up at Royal Ascot on her re-appearance in the Coronation Stakes with both Sandrine and Prosperous Voygage behind and held today. The Gosden’s superstar filly has 9lb and more in hand of her four rivals and it will be a major shock were she not to win this group one Falmouth Stakes easily under Frankie Dettori.

 

[Tedthewolf]

3.00 NM I like the chances of UBER COOL e/w 33/1 bog 6 places on a nice mark reasonable run lto probably needed  the run dropped  back in  trip here  shrewd lady trainer  deffo can outrun its price here imho.

Good Luck All

[kensland]

Double. 

6.15. Chep.Miss Blennerhasset.....     5/2..... 3rd 

6.30. Chet. Boom Boom Pow.             4/1...... 2nd 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by kensland

[The Brigadier]

22 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

3.00 NM I like the chances of UBER COOL e/w 33/1 bog 6 places on a nice mark reasonable run lto probably needed  the run dropped  back in  trip here  shrewd lady trainer  deffo can outrun its price here imho.

Good Luck All

She's in form as well with a nice two year old winner yesterday at Doncaster

[black rabbit]

nolton cross   1 50 nwm   1/5 pt  win 18/1 

zoffee 3 00 nwm  20/1  1/5 pt win  20/1  

spirit mixer  3 00 nwm  1/5 pt win 22/1 

lipsink  4 45 nwm  1/5 pt win  33/1

sibila spain  3 35 nwm  1/5 pt win 20/1

 

 

 

P/L   +  131.75 pts

Edited July 8, 2022 by black rabbit
selections

[Zilzalian]

Although not top rated on my speed figures i think Tagline is well overpriced at 18/1 bet365 a look at its previous races tells more of a story than the figures.

[azzybear]

knightswood 1.50

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

YORK	2.05	My Little Queens (3)	4/1
YORK	2.40	Benefit (6)	5/1

[Bang on]

4.10 Nmkt - Mums Tipple - 5/1 - was very highly rated as a yougster ( won a 147k race as a 2yo at York and still only 5 ), and is dropping down the handicap, having dropped 11lbs in just 4 runs. Takes a drop in grade also (been contesting class 2 , this is class 3). Main danger loks to be the fav Nizaaka, who is in good recent form. We are relying on Mums Tipple bouncing back to form, but he did win a class 1 listed race last year so not impossible and trainer in reasonable form as well.

[The Equaliser]

4.10 Nm Nizaaka 10/3 (my PL Nap)

4.25 Yk Northern Express 11/4 (interesting that Saleymm was gelded a month ago.  I don't think I would be ready to win if I had my nuts cut off a month ago)

5.00 Yk Peggy Sioux 4/1 (looks like I missed out on some good early prices)

6.00 Chest Gabrial The Wire 11/4

6 x 0.25 ew doubles, 4 x 0.25 ew treblles and 1 x 0.25 ew fourfold.  Poss return186.20

Had 1.10 single win on Mum's Tipple at 6.2 since @Bang onhas highlighted its chances.  Stirling efforts by him for bringing well handicapped horses to our attention

Loads of good priced possibilities on off today but I am resisting losing even more points by taking them up.

Total stakes so far 6.60

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunatley Northern Express was burdoned with Paul Mulrennan so it got beat Saleymm ran well.  I wish Sylvester had been on my horse

6.00 Chest Gabrial The Wire 2.2 points win at 3.90 for a 6.25 profit

Total stakes now 8.8

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last bet of the day from analysed races

6.45 Chp Astrophysics 4 pts win at 10/3 & Our Man In Havana 3 pts win at 11/2.  I'm not sure about the jockey George Downing over sprint distances though.  Hope it all doesn't turn out to be Rhubarb ?

15.8 total stakes today

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by The Equaliser

[maxironchin]

3.00 Newmarket

A good size field, but several are unlikely winners. The 13lb advantage that Contact has gained over Candleford since their last meeting may be enough to let him come out in front.

2pt Win Contact.

 

[Zilzalian]

Anyone who backed Lezoo (i didn't) should feel cheated, bad form from Detorri in the stewards room he didn't want to upset Suroor did he? I dont like to see winners disq'd but in this case i think fairness should apply and i didn't see fairness to punters or connections of the lezoo here.

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Anyone who backed Lezoo (i didn't) should feel cheated, bad form from Detorri in the stewards room he didn't want to upset Suroor did he? I dont like to see winners disq'd but in this case i think fairness should apply and i didn't see fairness to punters or connections of the lezoo here.

I'm a first past the post man myself.  Sure penalise the jockey/trainer/owner but I always feel that no matter what happens the horse that finished in front should always be the winner for betting purposes

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm a first past the post man myself.  Sure penalise the jockey/trainer/owner but I always feel that no matter what happens the horse that finished in front should always be the winner for betting purposes

Dead easy to be a FPTP man if you back in shillings but i think if you back in 100's and 1000's then you want the best possible position for your selection and if you feel cheated then its a whole different ball game. Only in racing or a bloke in a womans sports event can you break the rules and still win.

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Dead easy to be a FPTP man if you back in shillings but i think if you back in 100's and 1000's then you want the best possible position for your selection and if you feel cheated then its a whole different ball game. Only in racing or a bloke in a womans sports event can you break the rules and still win.

I respect your opinion but even if I had £10k on a horse I wouldn't want to be denied my winnings by an amended result in the stewards room.  Sure, ban the jockey, penalise the trainer but do not relieve me of my winnings if my horse finishes first past the post

[fd1972uk]

Candleford ran like an absolute coo, from start to finish.  Thankfully just used a free bet on it, although still a waste.

Had first 2 horses in 1350 on moneybacl offers, no profit anyway.

Waiting on Prince of tonga at 500 for a ew double, had gale force maya.

Edited July 8, 2022 by fd1972uk

[The Brigadier]

On 7/7/2022 at 8:54 AM, The Brigadier said:

Newmarket 1.50

The first of two heritage handicaps on the Newmarket card. This 10F three year olds only contest features two Charlie Appleby trained colts at the top of the handicap in Natural World who’s been gelded since last seen and New London who was well backed for the Epsom Derby before and after his Newmarket novice stakes win in April. He subsequently flopped when a 4/11 chance in the Chester Vase finishing 6 1/2L second to the easy winner Changingoftheguard. William Buick appears to have chosen him over Natural World and he looks sure to be involved in the finish dropping back in trip. I also like the Hughie Morrison trained Reelemin who impressed on his re-appearance when winning at Sandown and is worth a small stakes each way saver.

 

NEW LONDON 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365

REELEMIN 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 2.05

A eight runner class 3 12F handicap is up next with the weights headed by the Archie Watson trained Southern Voyage who hasn’t been seen for 273 days. In a race that doesn’t look likely to take much winning my fancy is the bottom weight My Little Queens who ran really well at Carlisle in the Cumberland Plate with a couple of these in El 
Picador and Strawman behind that day. Richard Fahey’s four year old is progressing well and should appreciate this extra furlong today under Silvestre De Sousa.

 

MY LITTLE QUEENS 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.25

A small but select field of only six go to post for this group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes which feature form lines from the big fillies two year old races at Royal Ascot. Michael Bell’s Havana Grey filly Maylandsea bumped into one in Dramatised when going down by 1 3/4L in the Queen Mary over 5F and should appreciate the step up a furlong here. Carmela was behind her that day and looks well held. The Albany Stakes form is represented by the the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mawj who finished runner up to Meditate with Queen Olly a length behind and Tagline a further 3/4L back in third. She looked like she would appreciate a seventh furlong that day but with the uphill finish on the July course can make her stamina pay late on and she looks the bet here for me. Ralph Beckett saddles Lezoo who’s looked useful in winning at Bath and Goodwood this season and with Frankie Dettori on board is also a player. A tough call between the three at the head of the market but my moneys on Mawj.

 

MAWJ 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

York 2.40

The group 3 Summer Stakes is a valuable 6F sprint for fillies and mares and has attracted a field of twelve. Flotus is the favourite and she ran really well when third in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and must have a leading chance here today for Simon and Ed Crisford and jockey Silvestre De Sousa. She’s been priced accordingly though and better value may lie with the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani, a half sister to the the stable’s group one winning sprinter Hello Youmzain. She was only a couple of lengths behind Flotus in that group one at Ascot and as that was her first outing for 272 days should come on for it and hopefully get a fair bit closer today. She looks the each way bet in the race to me. Ismail Mohammed’s Zain Claudette was another making her seasonal debut in the aforementioned Commonwealth Cup at Ascot finishing a couple of lengths behind the selection and is another with an each way chance. Clive Cox’s Benefit is also on the upgrade but I’m happy to play Hala Hala Athmani each way.

 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 1 1/2 points each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 3.00

The second of the heritage handicaps today. Run over 14F this class 2 race has attracted sixteen runners with the likely favourite the impressive Royal Ascot winner Candleford who blew his field apart when putting six lengths between himself and the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap over 12F with the extra two furlongs here likely to suit. He looked way ahead of his mark at Ascot and despite a 13lb rise can take this en route to a tilt at the Ebor Handicap at York next month. David and Nicola Barron’s Contact is an improving four year old who was 7 1/4L behind Candleford at Ascot and re-opposes on 13lb better terms so should get closer and he may be the biggest danger to the selection. The Gosden’s Trawlerman was further behind and looks held. Saeed Bin Suroor has his team in fine shape and saddles Dubai Welcome who too could be competitive.

 

CANDLEFORD 2 points win @ 7/2 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Newmarket 3.35

A no bet race here I’m afraid with Inspiral looking the proverbial good thing having bolted up at Royal Ascot on her re-appearance in the Coronation Stakes with both Sandrine and Prosperous Voygage behind and held today. The Gosden’s superstar filly has 9lb and more in hand of her four rivals and it will be a major shock were she not to win this group one Falmouth Stakes easily under Frankie Dettori.

 

A profit of 2.67 points with two winners in New London and Mawj. Saturdays bumper selections are already uploaded. Good luck everyone.

[Bang on]

3 hours ago, Bang on said:

4.10 Nmkt - Mums Tipple - 5/1 - was very highly rated as a yougster ( won a 147k race as a 2yo at York and still only 5 ), and is dropping down the handicap, having dropped 11lbs in just 4 runs. Takes a drop in grade also (been contesting class 2 , this is class 3). Main danger loks to be the fav Nizaaka, who is in good recent form. We are relying on Mums Tipple bouncing back to form, but he did win a class 1 listed race last year so not impossible and trainer in reasonable form as well.

Not quite good enough today, a much improved performance to finish 3rd. Race won by the main danger Nizaaka who ran well for a trainer in very good form.

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I respect your opinion but even if I had £10k on a horse I wouldn't want to be denied my winnings by an amended result in the stewards room.  Sure, ban the jockey, penalise the trainer but do not relieve me of my winnings if my horse finishes first past the post

Your opinion is as valid as is mine.

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Your opinion is as valid as is mine.

Much appreciated and of course you have the whole betting industry behind you ?

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

4.10 Nm Nizaaka 10/3 (my PL Nap)

4.25 Yk Northern Express 11/4 (interesting that Saleymm was gelded a month ago.  I don't think I would be ready to win if I had my nuts cut off a month ago)

5.00 Yk Peggy Sioux 4/1 (looks like I missed out on some good early prices)

6.00 Chest Gabrial The Wire 11/4

6 x 0.25 ew doubles, 4 x 0.25 ew treblles and 1 x 0.25 ew fourfold.  Poss return186.20

Had 1.10 single win on Mum's Tipple at 6.2 since @Bang onhas highlighted its chances.  Stirling efforts by him for bringing well handicapped horses to our attention

Loads of good priced possibilities on off today but I am resisting losing even more points by taking them up.

Total stakes so far 6.60

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunatley Northern Express was burdoned with Paul Mulrennan so it got beat Saleymm ran well.  I wish Sylvester had been on my horse

6.00 Chest Gabrial The Wire 2.2 points win at 3.90 for a 6.25 profit

Total stakes now 8.8

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last bet of the day from analysed races

6.45 Chp Astrophysics 4 pts win at 10/3 & Our Man In Havana 3 pts win at 11/2.  I'm not sure about the jockey George Downing over sprint distances though.  Hope it all doesn't turn out to be Rhubarb ?

15.8 total stakes today

 

RESULTS UPDATE

I hate this bit when I lose.  They say many a true word spoken in jest.  I should have had an insurance bet at least on Rhubarb.  I was unhappy about the jockey on Astrophysics anyway.  Only 0.65 returned for my multiples and hence a loss of 15.15 points.  At least my Nap won.  Silly me should have had my recovery bet on that one.  Maybe that's what I will do in future as it seems logical.  This makes my MTD -41.36 and YTD -184.38.

I won't have too much time tomorrow but hopefully there should be some good racing