Racing Chat - Saturday June 25th

[The Brigadier]

Newcastle 1.50

A dozen sprinters contest the opening race of ITV’s eight races today in a 6F class 2 handicap. The race has an open feel about it with Richard Fahey’s Strike Red the one that appeals. He rides the North Eastern track well winning two of his three races here and comes here on the back of a good 4th (beaten under a length)in a decent class 2 handicap at Hamilton. Only 4lb higher than his course and distance victory last September he looks the one to be with here. Michael Scudamore’s Rolfe Rembrandt and bottom weight Be Proud look dangers but Strike Red will do for me ridden today by the more than capable Oisin Orr.

 

STRIKE RED 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 2.05

Eleven two year old fillies have declared for the listed Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies Stakes run over 6F of the July course. George Boughey’s Believing is an interesting runner who ran runner up to the smart Mawj here on the Rowley course on her debut and landed the odds when slowly away at Wolverhampton 9 days later. She again had issues with the stalls at Royal Ascot when playing up for the Albany eventually been withdrawn. She’s smart but can we trust her at the gate? For that reason I’m with the Richard Hannnon trained Minnetonka who spread eagled her field on her racecourse debut at Salisbury a fortnight ago looking to all and sundry like a pattern performer and she’s worth a thick bet today. Ralph Beckett’s Lezoo impressed on her debut but that was at Bath, hardly a hotbed for juvenile talent whilst George Boughey’s other runner Malrescia is chasing a hat trick following wins at Hamilton and Lingfield. Minnetonka made a big impression on me at Salisbury and looks the one to be with today with Jim Crowley taking over from Pat Dobbs who’s got a full book of rides at Windsor this afternoon.

 

MINNETONKA 3 points win @ 11/4 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Newcastle 2.25

A dozen sprinters assemble for the group 3 Chipchase Stakes. Glen Shiel has some fair track form (3 wins from 5 starts here) although hasn’t actually raced here since August 2020. He’s the best in at todays weights and looks likely to run a big race under usual pilot Hollie Doyle. Karl Burke’s Spycatcher is another for the shortlist dropping back to 6F and he has some good sprint form with first time cheek pieces employed today. The one I fancy though is one of the three three year olds in the field in the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty. She was backed off the boards when winning a listed contest at Haydock last time, a race that has worked out particularly well with the runner up Flotus going on to place in the group one Commonwealth Cup and the third Benefit winning since. She has to step up again to win this group 3 contest but looks highly progressive and on her first all weather start is the one to beat.

 

SENSE OF DUTY 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.40

A disappointing turnout of just five and a weak race in prospect for the listed Fred Archer Stakes. Charlie Appleby sets a poser by running both Kemari, who flopped last time out at York and Rebels Romance who’s yet to run on the turf. The latter is the pick of William Buick so presumably the more fancied but I’m happy to take the pair on. I’m not a fan of Stowell for whom it appears Frankie Dettori has been jocked off by the Gosden’s and outsider Something Enticing has 15lb to find with top rated Rebels Romance. A matter of elimination leaves me with the 2020 winner Universal Order trained by David Simcock and he’s the tentative selection with Callum Shepherd in the saddle.

 

UNIVERSAL ORDER 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Newcastle 2.55

Run over just over two miles this is the Northumberland Plate Consolation handicap for horses that didn’t make it into the big one. Top weight Evaluation missed the big gig by one and tops the weight today looking the one they all have to beat. Let go by Sir Michael Stoute for just 30,000 guineas this ex Queen owned four year old has been a revelation since joining the Lanarkshire stable of Keith Dagleish winning four staying handicaps on the turf rising 22lb in the process. This son of Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate ticks a lot of the boxes for this contest and he’s the one I want to be with. Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee is an interesting runner winning at Carlisle last time and should relish the step up two furlongs here and as a 132 rated hurdler could still be well treated off of 84 on the flat. Andrew Balding saddles a brace of runners who on their best form hold claims in Auriferous and Mellow Magic but it’s Evaluation for me with Callum Rodriquez, who’s ridden him on three of his four victories this season in the saddle.

 

EVALUATION 2 points each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 3.15

Next up at HQ is the group 3 7F Criterion Stakes where seven useful horses will be making their way to post. The key race here is the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock from four weeks ago. Winner Pogo had Laneqash a nose back in second and Sunray Major a further half a length back in fourth. Pogo has to carry a 3lb penalty today which puts him at a disadvantage with his two rivals who both have claims today as Laneqash was having his first run for 246 days and Sunray Major met trouble in running. Both have decent chances but I’m more interested in the two three year olds here. Tom Clover’s Bass Player was 2 1/4L behind Hugo Palmers Ever Given last time out in listed company at Epsom and may struggle to turn the form around. The form has been boosted by the win of the runner up Oscula in listed company at Carlisle earlier this week and although this represents a step up in grade Ever Given is only officially 4lb off of the top rated Laneqash here and is very much an improver. Skybet and Betfred are paying a third place here despite only seven runners so if you can get on with either of those firms let’s go each way.

 

EVER GIVEN 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5 123

 

Newcastle 3.30

The day’s big handicap is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap or as known by many as the Pitman’s Derby. A race I’ve always enjoyed over the years maybe not as much nowadays mind that it’s run on the all weather. Twenty have declared and as you would expect there’s an open feel about the race. Rajinsky would be on my short list with his recent Chester Cup form working out so well but stall 16 will make things difficult for him although horses have won from out there over the past including last years winner Nicholas T from stall 17. Alan King’s top stayer Trueshan heads the weights but this is a prep run for the Goodwood Cup and was beaten in this last year off of 113 (if taking his 5lb claimer’s allowance into account) and has to race off of a 7lb higher mark here and is overlooked. Andrew Balding saddles his progressive stayer Valley Forge who is another drawn out wide and has no experience of the all weather. If you like him then surely you must give a chance to the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Golden Flame who was beaten a head by him at Haydock in May and is now 2lb better off with his subsequent defeat put down to not staying 2m 4F at Royal Ascot. At four times the price he has to be part of the staking plan. Island Brave has had excuses for recent defeats and was third in this last year off of a 2lb higher mark so is another outsider who can outrun his odds. Sir Mark Prescott is still not really firing on all cylinders but saddles Summer’s Knight here who was highly progressive last season and has claims from a nice draw in stall 5. A tough handicap and I’ll play a couple small each way in Summers Knight and Golden Flame with the additional place terms.

 

SUMMERS KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

GOLDEN FLAME 1 point each way @ 25/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Curragh 3.45

Aidan O’Brien has thrown a spanner into the works here by taking out all of his colts (he had 10 entered up until the 4 day declaration stage) and supplemented at a cost of 75k his Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday. A multiple winner of this race O’Brien knows what it takes to win and I’ll take her to thwart the colts. The only negative is if the ground was to turn soft as there is a band of rain threatening the track over the weekend (although the clerk of the course seems to feel it’s likely to hit Saturday evening). The big threat to Tuesday is obviously the unlucky in running Derby third Westover who will now be ridden by Colin Keane rather than Rob Hornby who had a torrid run at Epsom when getting stopped in his run from a poor draw. Unless the ground changed dramatically I feel these two will battle the finish out with preference for the fairer sex.

 

TUESDAY 3 points win @ 11/8 bet365

 

[black rabbit]

summers knight     1/5 pt ew 18/1      exrta places in places   7       PLACED EW

pogo   3 15 new   1/4 pt win 8/1    WON

graphite  3 30 new   1/5 pt ew   40/1  UNPLACED

midrarr  1 15  new    1/4 pt win  12/1    2ND

 

 

 

 

 

 

P/L  +  129.25  pt 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by black rabbit

[ipswich45]

English Raiders at The Curragh

1435 - Listed 1m
8 - The Acropolis       R Moore / A P O'Brien

1505 - Railway Stakes (G2)
3 - Blackbeard      R Moore / A P O'Brien

1545 - Irish Derby  (G1)
5 - Lionel         J Spencer / D Menuisier 
8 - Tuesday     R Moore / A P O'Brien

1620 - International Stakes (G3)
6 - Aikhal      R Moore / A P O'Brien

Edited June 24, 2022 by ipswich45

[richard-westwood]

Struggling to find any value,at all ...racing really needs to sort itself out or punters will migrate away .....bunched ratings...short prices  ....I'll just try  1 race 

7.00 donc 

Hiya maite   8.5  7/2 

Pockley    8.2  10/1 

Tricky race so I'll just try 4pt wins both   and hope for a bit of luck 

[Tedthewolf]

18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Struggling to find any value,at all ...racing really needs to sort itself out or punters will migrate away .....bunched ratings...short prices  ....I'll just try  1 race 

7.00 donc 

Hiya maite   8.5  7/2 

Pockley    8.2  10/1 

Tricky race so I'll just try 4pt wins both   and hope for a bit of luck 

That's a real shame  Rich was looking forward to your ratings in the 2 big handicaps at Newcastle esp Island  Brave in the Northumberland  Plate  as  i really fancy it to go well  would have liked to  have seen it  high in your ratings.

[MCLARKE]

58 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Struggling to find any value,at all ...racing really needs to sort itself out or punters will migrate away .....bunched ratings...short prices  ....I'll just try  1 race 

I would think there is some good each way value at Newcastle with up to 7 places offered.

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Struggling to find any value,at all ...racing really needs to sort itself out or punters will migrate away .....bunched ratings...short prices  ....I'll just try  1 race 

7.00 donc 

Hiya maite   8.5  7/2 

Pockley    8.2  10/1 

Tricky race so I'll just try 4pt wins both   and hope for a bit of luck 

The amount of Charlie Appleby's odds on shots that have been turned over the last few days then surely there's some value backing against his atm .

[richard-westwood]

I've rated about 6 or 7 diff races and they are all bunched up ..I.e on my master ratings I can have a top rated on 450 then the 2nd on 438 ...3rd on 425 etc ....on 4 races I rated the top 4 or 5 or 6 horses were.all within 10pts ...meaning there's no real  value to warrant risking the money ....I didn't rate the plate as I don't tend to have much luck in those types of race ...they become like a,war of attrition after the 12f pole and its who lasts home better on the day so I can't be confident in the ratings ...its like 20 % guesswork and I don't like doing that ......I'm not even mega confident in the race I picked but it was better than all the others based on there's a chance hiya maite could improve considerably tomorrow so it was worth chancing it 

Normally I can find something but not today .....I mean there's £20000 races with 6 runners ??....just don't know what's going on ....entire meetings with 3 runners ....5 runners ...7 runners ....etc its not good 

I rated the 150 newc and strike red rated high but there's about 4  horses within close proximity who have a chance on old form but uncertain whether they run to form so with 7/2 on strike with 4 potential dangers it just doesn't appeal to me 

Factor in ground issues ..I.e form from  from wolv and southwell translates well but not so much ling and kemp then the races just look messy and so open....I look for races where the top 2 or 3 are very strong and a bit ahead of rest of field with lots going in their favour then their prices are Inherently value but not tomorrow .....I've got to trust the ratings and they are saying its a crappy open day so just 1,race I guess ??

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

That's a real shame  Rich was looking forward to your ratings in the 2 big handicaps at Newcastle esp Island  Brave in the Northumberland  Plate  as  i really fancy it to go well  would have liked to  have seen it  high in your ratings.

I will stick that race through in the morning ...I'm curious as to what it will throw up myself .....?

[Tedthewolf]

4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I will stick that race through in the morning ...I'm curious as to what it will throw up myself .....?

? cheers

[Tedthewolf]

2..55 NC nothing really stood out for me here very  tricky even race imo  i  have had a small e/w on the Goldie trained 2nd string 40/1 shot ANNADALE.

3.30 NC unlike the above race i could have backed about 6 in this!

My main bet and  i really like it, should go close is 20/1 shot ISLAND BRAVE i do back a lot of horses that  have run well in these  big handicaps the previous year  this horse ran a cracker to be 3rd a few ibs lower and a very hot Apprentice on top  claiming a bit more off   mmm not a 20/1 shot in my book.

I also like ALRIGHT SUNSHINE e/w around 16's with any luck may go off bigger  this horse ran very well at Ascot lto out   seems to be running into form and i think only a matter of time before it will pick up one of these big races and looks one to follow.

Ted wouldn't be Ted  without a big fat juicy total outsider  so it's a very small e/w play on  66/1 rag RED VERDON  on old form has a  squeak.

4.38 NC Class horse in the race has been off for 2 year and has changed stable but  has never really done anything after a break but i  just can't let this horse go unbacked at 28/1!  SIRDANCEALOT.

Best of Luck All

 

 

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

330 newc 

Rajinsky   8.9 6/1 

Graphite   8.7  33/1 

Island brave   8.3 20/1 

OK Ted you've tempted me ....I'll try 3pt ew all 3 just for some action lol ? 

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

330 newc 

Rajinsky   8.9 6/1 

Graphite   8.7  33/1 

Island brave   8.3 20/1 

OK Ted you've tempted me ....I'll try 3pt ew all 3 just for some action lol ? 

 

 

 

Just a little confused over your earlier remarks about most races having bunched up ratings in relation to this race.  It seems to me that you would quite usually write something like the top two are well clear of the rest so I'll have x points etc on the selections.  What I am trying to say is that it looks from my point of view that the top two in this race are well clear of the rest so I don't understand why you were hesitant in putting them up earlier?

[Tedthewolf]

15 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Just a little confused over your earlier remarks about most races having bunched up ratings in relation to this race.  It seems to me that you would quite usually write something like the top two are well clear of the rest so I'll have x points etc on the selections.  What I am trying to say is that it looks from my point of view that the top two in this race are well clear of the rest so I don't understand why you were hesitant in putting them up earlier?

He said earlier because of the type of race it is long distance flat?

[Tedthewolf]

10 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

 ....I didn't rate the plate as I don't tend to have much luck in those types of race ...they become like a,war of attrition after the 12f pole and its who lasts home better on the day so I can't be confident in the ratings ...its like 20 % guesswork and I don't like doing that ......

?

[calva decoy]

205 Newmarket - MISKA 14/1 ( £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th )  LAST 

255 & 330 Newcastle small each ways on couple of Alan Kings 

Vase - CATBIRD SEAT 16/1 sky ( 6 places )  PULLED UP 

Plate - WHO DARES WINS 33/1 sky ( 7 places )  16TH  

Not that much damage done to the wallet but shocking results & well done to Trueshan & Hollie Doyle with that much weight I didn't think they'd manage it ?

Edited June 25, 2022 by calva decoy
results update

[Budgie 65]

330 Newcastle Solent getaway 16/1 pp win or ew

Edited June 25, 2022 by Budgie 65

[kensland]

Having a bet I have placed only a few times over the years, the trixie. 

Newcastle. 

Single. 

3.30. Graphite.            33/1.   ew 

Trixie. 

1.15. Arabian Warrior.          9/2..... 1st 

1.50. Strike Red.                4/1..... unpl 

2.25. Sense of Duty.            2 /1...... 1st 

Good luck all. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

38 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Just a little confused over your earlier remarks about most races having bunched up ratings in relation to this race.  It seems to me that you would quite usually write something like the top two are well clear of the rest so I'll have x points etc on the selections.  What I am trying to say is that it looks from my point of view that the top two in this race are well clear of the rest so I don't understand why you were hesitant in putting them up earlier?

It's because when I get the ratings I don't just get 1 like above ....there's class ....recent form etc all next to each other so although when I post it looks like top 2 are clear....if all the other info isn't backing that up then I'll scrub the race ...I.e it looks like this    ....

Horse 1  8.4  class 65  recent 70

Horse 2 8.2 class   64 recent 68

Horse 3 8.0 class 68 recent 66

Horse 4 7.8 class 70 recent 66

Horse 5 7.7 class 69 recent 69 

And there's a bit more too so I look at tge screen and scratch my head thinking what the hell  so you can see above its at least a 5 Horse race if not more so although the first column looks OK....the whole picture looks crap from a value perspective ...whereas 

Horse 1 9.0 class  75 recent 90

Horse 2 8.7 class 73 recent 88 

Horse 3 8.6class 65 recent 65 

Horse 4 8.4 class  61 recent   77 

Now that looks more like it !!!... if I can get 7/2 on top rated and say 10/1 ew on 2nd rated then I'd say that seems like a good bet considering ....so its not just 1 thing it's a compete package 

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

It's because when I get the ratings I don't just get 1 like above ....there's class ....recent form etc all next to each other so although when I post it looks like top 2 are clear....if all the other info isn't backing that up then I'll scrub the race ...I.e it looks like this    ....

Horse 1  8.4  class 65  recent 70

Horse 2 8.2 class   64 recent 68

Horse 3 8.0 class 68 recent 66

Horse 4 7.8 class 70 recent 66

Horse 5 7.7 class 69 recent 69 

And there's a bit more too so I look at tge screen and scratch my head thinking what the hell  so you can see above its at least a 5 Horse race if not more so although the first column looks OK....the whole picture looks crap from a value perspective ...whereas 

Horse 1 9.0 class  75 recent 90

Horse 2 8.7 class 73 recent 88 

Horse 3 8.6class 65 recent 65 

Horse 4 8.4 class  61 recent   77 

Now that looks more like it !!!... if I can get 7/2 on top rated and say 10/1 ew on 2nd rated then I'd say that seems like a good bet considering ....so its not just 1 thing it's a compete package 

Very many thanks for your explanation.  Always ready to help in explaining things for me and hopefully others too

[Nigwilliam]

A couple of small ew's in the Plate for me,using jocks Hart and Tart.

N 330  Themaxwecan. 33/1 ewx 9 places

             Uber Cool. 23/2 ewx 9 places

bet365

[azzybear]

dark majesty 1.15 power over me 1.25 surrounding 2.00 tribal art 3.30 

[richard-westwood]

1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your explanation.  Always ready to help in explaining things for me and hopefully others too

Of course .....the first 6 races I rated were coming up like the first example .....then there was x amount of races with 5 runners ...6 runners etc ...so overall from my perspective it looks crap .....I could just rate the races and have a guess and just have a bet anyway but I don't like risking money unless I think I've got a decent chance of a return .....they sometimes run like donkeys despite having fab ratings but that's racing lol ?....it frustrates the hell out of me when the the top rated in the 2nd example finishes 12th ???....all you can do is move on ...it happens .......

I really believe the reason I've done so well in past and that they perform well is because I only generally pick the strong races ....I discard probably 70 % of races and sometimes that's the reason I don't post .....if I've been working long shifts then rated 3 races which were crap and I've run out of time I'll just leave it for another day ...I'm not tempted to just stick the crap bets on because I want that holiday  ..and those bets just get me bognor Regis (no offence Intended ??)....I'm sure it's nice lol 

[azzybear]

Hanibal Barca 3.45 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

NEWC	1.50	Strike Red (6)	4/1
NEWC	2.25	Glen Shiel (9)	4/1
CURR	3.45	Hannibal Barca (6)	17/2

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Northumberland Plate (Newcastle 3.30)

Not 1st or 2nd last time, 1 fom 107.

This leaves VALLEY FORGE and TRUESHAN

Bottom 4 inthe weights, 0 from 31

This leaves TRUESHAN at 5/1, 6 places

[The Brigadier]

On 6/24/2022 at 9:38 AM, The Brigadier said:

Newcastle 1.50

A dozen sprinters contest the opening race of ITV’s eight races today in a 6F class 2 handicap. The race has an open feel about it with Richard Fahey’s Strike Red the one that appeals. He rides the North Eastern track well winning two of his three races here and comes here on the back of a good 4th (beaten under a length)in a decent class 2 handicap at Hamilton. Only 4lb higher than his course and distance victory last September he looks the one to be with here. Michael Scudamore’s Rolfe Rembrandt and bottom weight Be Proud look dangers but Strike Red will do for me ridden today by the more than capable Oisin Orr.

 

STRIKE RED 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 2.05

Eleven two year old fillies have declared for the listed Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies Stakes run over 6F of the July course. George Boughey’s Believing is an interesting runner who ran runner up to the smart Mawj here on the Rowley course on her debut and landed the odds when slowly away at Wolverhampton 9 days later. She again had issues with the stalls at Royal Ascot when playing up for the Albany eventually been withdrawn. She’s smart but can we trust her at the gate? For that reason I’m with the Richard Hannnon trained Minnetonka who spread eagled her field on her racecourse debut at Salisbury a fortnight ago looking to all and sundry like a pattern performer and she’s worth a thick bet today. Ralph Beckett’s Lezoo impressed on her debut but that was at Bath, hardly a hotbed for juvenile talent whilst George Boughey’s other runner Malrescia is chasing a hat trick following wins at Hamilton and Lingfield. Minnetonka made a big impression on me at Salisbury and looks the one to be with today with Jim Crowley taking over from Pat Dobbs who’s got a full book of rides at Windsor this afternoon.

 

MINNETONKA 3 points win @ 11/4 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Newcastle 2.25

A dozen sprinters assemble for the group 3 Chipchase Stakes. Glen Shiel has some fair track form (3 wins from 5 starts here) although hasn’t actually raced here since August 2020. He’s the best in at todays weights and looks likely to run a big race under usual pilot Hollie Doyle. Karl Burke’s Spycatcher is another for the shortlist dropping back to 6F and he has some good sprint form with first time cheek pieces employed today. The one I fancy though is one of the three three year olds in the field in the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty. She was backed off the boards when winning a listed contest at Haydock last time, a race that has worked out particularly well with the runner up Flotus going on to place in the group one Commonwealth Cup and the third Benefit winning since. She has to step up again to win this group 3 contest but looks highly progressive and on her first all weather start is the one to beat.

 

SENSE OF DUTY 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.40

A disappointing turnout of just five and a weak race in prospect for the listed Fred Archer Stakes. Charlie Appleby sets a poser by running both Kemari, who flopped last time out at York and Rebels Romance who’s yet to run on the turf. The latter is the pick of William Buick so presumably the more fancied but I’m happy to take the pair on. I’m not a fan of Stowell for whom it appears Frankie Dettori has been jocked off by the Gosden’s and outsider Something Enticing has 15lb to find with top rated Rebels Romance. A matter of elimination leaves me with the 2020 winner Universal Order trained by David Simcock and he’s the tentative selection with Callum Shepherd in the saddle.

 

UNIVERSAL ORDER 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Newcastle 2.55

Run over just over two miles this is the Northumberland Plate Consolation handicap for horses that didn’t make it into the big one. Top weight Evaluation missed the big gig by one and tops the weight today looking the one they all have to beat. Let go by Sir Michael Stoute for just 30,000 guineas this ex Queen owned four year old has been a revelation since joining the Lanarkshire stable of Keith Dagleish winning four staying handicaps on the turf rising 22lb in the process. This son of Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate ticks a lot of the boxes for this contest and he’s the one I want to be with. Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee is an interesting runner winning at Carlisle last time and should relish the step up two furlongs here and as a 132 rated hurdler could still be well treated off of 84 on the flat. Andrew Balding saddles a brace of runners who on their best form hold claims in Auriferous and Mellow Magic but it’s Evaluation for me with Callum Rodriquez, who’s ridden him on three of his four victories this season in the saddle.

 

EVALUATION 2 points each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 3.15

Next up at HQ is the group 3 7F Criterion Stakes where seven useful horses will be making their way to post. The key race here is the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock from four weeks ago. Winner Pogo had Laneqash a nose back in second and Sunray Major a further half a length back in fourth. Pogo has to carry a 3lb penalty today which puts him at a disadvantage with his two rivals who both have claims today as Laneqash was having his first run for 246 days and Sunray Major met trouble in running. Both have decent chances but I’m more interested in the two three year olds here. Tom Clover’s Bass Player was 2 1/4L behind Hugo Palmers Ever Given last time out in listed company at Epsom and may struggle to turn the form around. The form has been boosted by the win of the runner up Oscula in listed company at Carlisle earlier this week and although this represents a step up in grade Ever Given is only officially 4lb off of the top rated Laneqash here and is very much an improver. Skybet and Betfred are paying a third place here despite only seven runners so if you can get on with either of those firms let’s go each way.

 

EVER GIVEN 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5 123

 

Newcastle 3.30

The day’s big handicap is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap or as known by many as the Pitman’s Derby. A race I’ve always enjoyed over the years maybe not as much nowadays mind that it’s run on the all weather. Twenty have declared and as you would expect there’s an open feel about the race. Rajinsky would be on my short list with his recent Chester Cup form working out so well but stall 16 will make things difficult for him although horses have won from out there over the past including last years winner Nicholas T from stall 17. Alan King’s top stayer Trueshan heads the weights but this is a prep run for the Goodwood Cup and was beaten in this last year off of 113 (if taking his 5lb claimer’s allowance into account) and has to race off of a 7lb higher mark here and is overlooked. Andrew Balding saddles his progressive stayer Valley Forge who is another drawn out wide and has no experience of the all weather. If you like him then surely you must give a chance to the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Golden Flame who was beaten a head by him at Haydock in May and is now 2lb better off with his subsequent defeat put down to not staying 2m 4F at Royal Ascot. At four times the price he has to be part of the staking plan. Island Brave has had excuses for recent defeats and was third in this last year off of a 2lb higher mark so is another outsider who can outrun his odds. Sir Mark Prescott is still not really firing on all cylinders but saddles Summer’s Knight here who was highly progressive last season and has claims from a nice draw in stall 5. A tough handicap and I’ll play a couple small each way in Summers Knight and Golden Flame with the additional place terms.

 

SUMMERS KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

GOLDEN FLAME 1 point each way @ 25/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Curragh 3.45

Aidan O’Brien has thrown a spanner into the works here by taking out all of his colts (he had 10 entered up until the 4 day declaration stage) and supplemented at a cost of 75k his Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday. A multiple winner of this race O’Brien knows what it takes to win and I’ll take her to thwart the colts. The only negative is if the ground was to turn soft as there is a band of rain threatening the track over the weekend (although the clerk of the course seems to feel it’s likely to hit Saturday evening). The big threat to Tuesday is obviously the unlucky in running Derby third Westover who will now be ridden by Colin Keane rather than Rob Hornby who had a torrid run at Epsom when getting stopped in his run from a poor draw. Unless the ground changed dramatically I feel these two will battle the finish out with preference for the fairer sex.

 

TUESDAY 3 points win @ 11/8 bet365

 

Just the one winner but four places for a small loss of just under two points. Disappointed with Tuesday !

[fd1972uk]

19 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Northumberland Plate (Newcastle 3.30)

Not 1st or 2nd last time, 1 fom 107.

This leaves VALLEY FORGE and TRUESHAN

Bottom 4 inthe weights, 0 from 31

This leaves TRUESHAN at 5/1, 6 places

Guess who I went, lol.

Think I'll take my anti Doyle hat off and try, couple of horses now I've fancied with her on it and that's put me off them.

Had 1 winner at 10s and a saver so just made a little profit, getting my butt kicked on these moneybacks, minnentonka ran like a coo. Did have a saver bet that reduced the loss as sky were offering 7/4 on the 2 next favoured horses winning which Lezoo did.

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Think I'll take my anti Doyle hat off and try, couple of horses now I've fancied with her on it and that's put me off them.

I'm not a big fan of female jockeys per se but Hollie is an exception. She has an AE of 1.09 and this has been consistently over or above 1.05 each of the last 7 years.