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Racing Chat - Friday 18th March (Cheltenham Day 4)

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted

The final day and at least we should all know that the ground will have plenty of juice in it and I’ve worked on good to soft (soft in places) for my analysis. Hope you’ve all found a winner or three this week and here’s my thoughts on Day 4 :-

 

Cheltenham 1.30

A dozen juveniles go to post for the JCB Triumph Hurdle with the Irish holding the aces here with the front three in the market. Gordon Elliott’s Piped Piper beat Vauban on heavy ground on their respective hurdling debuts at Punchestown last New Years Eve by half a length and both have bolted up since. There probably won’t be much between the pair but as Pied Piper has had the course experience having won here in January and is also the bigger price he’s the pick today. Obviously ground conditions after Wednesdays rain is essential and he is proven on heavy ground. Elliott’s ‘2nd’ string is Fil Dor, a dual winner on soft ground but was 3L behind Vauban last time and will need to step it up again to take this. One horse who will love the softening ground and potentially the best of the home contingent is the Gary Moore trained Porticello, a dual winner in very soft ground at Chepstow and Haydock already this season. He’s worth a small ew saver.

 

PIED PIPER 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

PORTICELLO 1/2 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.10

A maximum field of 26 has been declared for the County Handicap Hurdle and as always is a tough race to crack. The Willie Mullins/Paul Townend favourite State Man could be chucked in on his handicap debut off of 141 and was touted earlier in the season as a likely Supreme Novice Hurdle contender. He could blow these away but is priced accordingly at around 5/1. Nigel Twiston Davies’ I Like To Move It has good form at the track and was runner up in the Betfair Hurdle last time - he too could be a player here. Dan Skelton has a very good record in this race winning it three times in the last six years and his West Cork who won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on the old course last November so can also be competitive. Brian Ellison’s Cormier is bidding to follow up his Kelso win from a fortnight ago under a 5lb penalty and shouldn’t mind the ground. Mrs Lorna Fowler’s novice Colonel Mustard is a very interesting runner and may just be the pick here making his handicap debut. He has plenty of form on soft ground and was actually third last time out in the grade one won by Sir Gerhard at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown (My Mate Mozzie way behind and re-opposes here on 6lb worse terms). If he was trained by Messrs Mullins or Elliott I think he would significantly shorter in the betting and he’s the main selection.

 

COLONEL MUSTARD 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power

STATE MAN 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.50

A real slog next up with the three mile Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a big field of 19. Gordon Elliott’s Ginto steps up in trip and looks a real stayer who’s been well touted by his trainer in pre Cheltenham previews. He won’t mind the bad ground and is on the short list here. The big danger may well be the Henry Daly trained Hillcrest, who is a massive horse at 18+ hands and is unbeaten on all his completed starts this season, last time out on heavy ground. He’s not the most fluent of jumpers and can be a bit clumsy at times but he has some engine and like Ginto looks sure to run well. Falcon Eight is an interesting outsider trained by the maestro Dermot Weld. A 109 rated performer on the flat, he won a 2m 7F maiden hurdle last month though has to prove himself on soft ground. Dan Skelton’s Ballygriffincottage is maybe the best outsider as he’ll keep going when others have chucked it in. A hard call between the front two but it’s Ginto for me from Hillcrest.

 

GINTO 2 points win @ 10/3 Paddy Power

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The blue riband race of the meeting is up next - the Gold Cup run over 3m 2F 70 yds. Eleven hopefuls will go to post including last year’s first three. Last year’s winner Minello Indo, trained by Henry De Bromhead bounced back to form last time when runner up to Conflated in the Irish Gold Cup and Robbie Power takes over from Jack Kennedy. Runner up last year was also trained by Henry De Bromhead in A Plus Tard who bolted up in the Betfair Chase on his re-appearance before a slightly disappointing runner up in the Savills Chase to Galvin over Christmas when beaten a short head. Rachael Blackmore knows him well and he’s my idea of the winner. Al Boum Photo was third last year having won the two previous renewals and may have had his day. I’m not sure the ground will be right for the Henderson runner Chantry House whilst Dan Skelton’s Protektorat has to prove his stamina although does appear to carry stable confidence. Galvin is another pushing for favouritism having just touched off A Plus Tard last time and has obvious claims but it’s A Plus Tard and De Bromhead and Blackmore for me.

 

A PLUS TARD 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 4.10

 

The Foxhunters is not my type of race and with our specialist expert @Darran analysing the race in depth elsewhere I’m more than happy to row in with his selection of the David Maxwell ridden Bob And Co that fell last year when in contention and actually beat the current favourite Billaway at Punchestown last Spring. 

 

BOB AND CO 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 4.50

The newest race at the Festival is the Mares Chase run over 2m 4F 127yds and predictably has only attracted a small field of eight. The best two at the weights are Mount Ida and Elimay who met at Fairyhouse on New Years Day over this trip when Gordon Elliott’s Mount Ida came out on top to the tune of 1/2L and re-opposes today on 3lb better terms. Elimay has landed the odds since in very soft ground but may have to play second fiddle here to Mount Ida once more. The other Mullins runner is Concertista who finished runner up in the mares hurdle here last year and is unbeaten in two novice chases this season at Cork and Limerick. She’s penalised 3lb for those and should be thereabouts. This should be going to the Irish with Mount Ida the likeliest winner.

 

MOUNT IDA 2 points win @ 9/4 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 5.30

The four day meeting concludes with the Martin Pipe conditional jockeys handicap hurdle run over 2m 4 56 yds with another maximum field of 24 lining up. Gordon Elliott always likes to win this event named after his former employer and saddles six today. Hollow Games is interesting on his handicap bow in a first time tongue tie as is his Au Fleuron who I’ve picked up a small tip for. Kevin Brogan has been booked for the latter and has to be part of the staking plan. Langer Dan was runner up a year ago to none other than Galopin Des Champs and appears to have been laid out for this by Dan Skelton. He’s had just the one quiet run since and has surprisingly been dropped 3lb for that effort meaning he can race today off of only 2lb higher than last years fine effort. Elliott may have six but Mullins saddles just the two in a race he has won three times in the last eight years. Adamantly Chosen is in a handicap for the first time and Richard Deegan has been booked whilst maybe more interesting is his other runner Five O’Clock who we haven’t seen since running in this race two years ago. Jack Foley is on him and if straight enough he could be competitive as he was possibly slightly unlucky in that run and is a pound lower now. It would be some training performance were he to win this after such a lay off. A tough contest that is always worth watching the market for but I’ll play a couple of bigger price horses to small stakes each way in Five O’Clock and Au Fleuron.

 

AU FLEURON 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

FIVE O’CLOCK 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

Sorry ....didn't have time to rate today been at work 12 hours but I'm going for gold Friday.....might even have a few forecasts......so I'll rate as many races as possible 

Triumph 

Pied piper  9.1 4.3 

Vauban   8.9  2/1 

I care allen   8.3 23.0 

I'll try 10pt wins top 2 .....

 

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

For a bloke that rarely backs ew i'm bagging up on these extra places on 365 at huge odds in multiples. last years festival i had that many big placed selections and won next to nothing so promised myself i wouldn't be a stubborn twat this year.

Yep I've had some nice winners with BET365 at Cheltenham this week, certainly the best bookie as far as I'm concerned.

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Trends for day 4.

1.30

Weak trends on this.

Ran more than 48 days ago, 0 from 22. 

Forecast odds less than 4/1, 1 from 8.

Finished 1st last time, 5 from 51, AE = 0.85.

Forecast odds greater than 14/1, 0 from 50. This leaves FIL DOR and IL ETAIT TEMPS.

Beaten favourite, 1 from 15, AE 1.02. This leaves FIL DOR at 13/2, 4 places.

2.10

Last ran less than 48 days ago, 2 from 125. This reduces the field to 5, WEST CORK, TOP BANDIT, GUA DU LARGE, JESSE EVANS and TAX FOR MAX.

Not finished in 1st 3 last time, 1 from 106. This removes WEST CORK and JESSE EVANS.

15th to 17th in the betting forecast 3 from 28, AE 4.36. This leaves TAX FOR MAX at 25/1, 7 places.

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kensland

kensland

Posted
Posted (edited)

Cheltenham Picks. 

1.30.Porticello..........   12/1.ew.... unpl 

2.10.I Like To Move It.           10/1   ew.... unpl 

2.50.Falcon Eight.           20/1 ew...... Nr 

4.50.Vienna Court.            12/1                  ew....... unpl 

5.30.Earlofthecotswold.         33/1.        ew.......... Nr

 

Good luck all. 

Edited by kensland
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Darran

Darran

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Posted
Fakenham hunter chase preview
 
I am not surprised at all to see Not That Fuisse become favourite over Actival. I thought he ran really well in his first hunter chase at Ludlow when staying on well to finish 3rd behind Hogans Height. He came from behind and I think they rode him to get the trip which given the way he finished his race off wasn't an issue in the end. Last time at Ludlow he was just creeping into contention when unfortunately a horse fell right in front of him and he had nowhere to go. Pont Aven won very easily in the end so I doubt he would have won, but I like to think he would have at least finished 2nd. He is at his best on decent ground and whilst the rain on Wednesday wouldn't have helped, Fakenham rarely gets testing and two drying days since then should mean the ground will be fine and it was soft when he was 3rd at Ludlow anyway. I can only see him getting shorter in the betting and he looks to have an excellent chance.
 
When Actival ran ahead of Southwell last week I wrote that his pointing form so far this season left him with a lot to find with the other leading fancies in the race. It was probably a personal best so far this season when finishing 2nd, but that race fell apart big time. Global Racing went at the first and Salvatore clearly didn't run his race. The fact that serial loser Deau Vivant ended up winning the race says a lot for me about the form going forward. I certainly would have backed Not That Fuisse to have won that Southwell contest and with Amy being by far the worse jockey out of the 3 leading contenders I think he will need something to happen at least to Not That Fuisse and probably Peacocks Secret as well if he is going to win.
 
Peacocks Secret is a course and distance winner which is always a big plus round here after he won here last March. That race fell apart a bit as well, but he followed that up with a very good 3rd at Cheltenham. The 3rd at Duncombe Park on his seasonal debut was a fair effort and I thought he ran well enough at Leicester last time with 2 good horses in front of him. He handles any ground so that doesn't matter and he is likely to make the running under his very good jockey. I think he is certainly capable of beating Actival and if something happens to the favourite he can take advantage.
 
I'm really confident about the chances of Not That Fuisse here as I think he is currently running to a higher level of form than Actival. Given I don't fancy Actival at all I thought it was worth having a saver on Peacocks Secret as he is also over priced and he could well get an time of things out in front. Dale is very good at judging the pace so that does make him dangerous. If Actival wins then I have either got very unlucky or I have got the race badly wrong!
 
Not That Fuisse 4pts @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11) Peacock Secret 1pt @ 5/1 with most firms (take up to 3/1)
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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Trends (continued)

2.50

Forecast odds 14/1 - 40/1, 6 from 75, AE 2.66. This reduces the field to 9.

Age 7 or 8, 3 from 32, AE 2.77. This leaves GOOD TIME JONNY, BALLYGRIFINCOTTAGE, FALCON EIGHT, RAMILLIES and ERIC BLOODAXE.

Finished 1st last time, 3 from 74, AE 0.56. This leaves ERIC BLOODAXE at 33/1, 7 places.

3.30

Last ran more than 73 days ago, 0 from 27. This reduces the field to 6.

Age greater than 8, 1 from 53. This leaves 3, ROYALE PAGAILLE, ASTERION FORLONGE and CHANTRY HOUSE.

1st, 2nd or 3rd last time, 5 from 78, AE 0.58. This leaves ASTERION FORLONGE at 28/1, 4 places.

4.10

Finished 1st or 2nd last time, 4 from 106, AE 0.67. This reduces the field to 7.

Age 10 or 11, 7 from 82, AE 1.78. This leaves 2, MIGHTY STOWAWAY and MONBEG CHIT CHAT.

Last ran less than 35 days ago, 3 from 118. This leaves MONBEG CHIT CHAT at 40/1, 5 places.

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

5.30

Weight greater than 11st 6lbs, 5 from 32, AE 2.87. This reduces the field to 5, FIVE O'CLOCK, GRAND JURY, ADAMANTLY CHOSEN,HOLLOW GAMES and THE VERY MAN.

Bred in Ireland, 5 from 82, AE 1.64. This removes FIVE O'CLOCK and GRAND DURY.

Top 5 in the betting, 6 from 38, AE 1.94. This removes THE VERY MAN.

Beaten favourite, 0 from 26. This leaves ADAMANTLY CHOSEN at 7/1, 6 places.

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

Posted
Posted

All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

1.30 - Fil Dor @ 7/1

Not as visually impressive as Pied Piper or Vauban but is still high class and I just get the impression that the former two are speedier types who might not want this to develop into a true test. Fil Dor looks an out and out galloper and I can see him going off handy and grinding this out from the front. 

2.10 - Tax For Max @ 22/1

Hasn't put it all together over hurdles so far but that means he's unexposed and his mark looks a fair one. Has run with plenty of promise in a few starts but can race a bit too freely and his jumping wasn't great when last seen. However, he's returning from an absence today which I don't think is a bad thing as he's gone well fresh in the past, the drying ground will help and the big field should allow him to settle better too. Will need his jumping to hold up but looks a live outsider.

2.50 - Minella Cocooner @ 10/1

Hillcrest still looks a bit of a work in progress and I just wonder if one of the Irish horses will have a bit too much class for him today. The value appears to be with Minella Cocooner in my eyes - similarly matched with the much shorter priced Ginto on a line through Hollow Games and both should appreciate the step up in trip today. Minella Cocooner's dam won a 3 mile grade 2 novice hurdle and is by Flemensfirth so stamina appears assured and Ginto has the slight question mark over his right-handed jumping too, so this one looks the play.

3.30 - Al Boum Photo @ 12/1

Clearly a very tricky race to call with not much between a lot of these on form. Al Boum Photo is a standing dish in the Gold Cup now though and looks likely to run his race again at what is a big price. Wasn't too far behind the front two last year on ground possibly a bit lively for him and today's conditions should suit his closing style a bit better. Jumping let him down at Punchestown the following month last year when he probably would have won but for successive mistakes at the final three fences. Given a fairly gentle prep for this and with cheekpieces on today, can run another big race.

4.10 - Dubai Quest @ 10/1

You simply can't fault this one's form and still has plenty of ability at the age of 9. Has beaten 130+ rated animals pretty readily the last twice and during his long winning sequence, also impressively saw off the now 137-rated Omar Maretti by 10+ lengths. Will need to jump okay but everything else looks in his favour and hopefully can extend this long unbeaten run today.

4.50 - Zambella @ 12/1

Possibly doesn't have the class of a couple of these but you know what you're going to get with her. She's a bold jumping, game sort who is likely to go forward here and I think she can put the pressure on Elimay and Mount Ida. Both of those rivals have some issues in the jumping department and Zambella has already beaten Elimay once this season. She's going to need everything to go right for her (or a bit wrong for the others) but I can't be confident backing either of the top two in the market at their prices so this looks a reasonable alternative.

5.30 - I Am Connect @ 20/1

I think the ease in the market for this one must be down to the ground but it might not be riding too bad by 5.30 today and if that's the case, 20/1 could look a silly price. Has done little wrong in three starts over hurdles, surrounding himself with smart types and looks well handicapped off 132 based on the horses his form is tied in with. Does suggest he wants a sound enough surface but well worth chancing on the basis of his handicap mark, which looks generous compared to many others in here. 

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kensland

kensland

Posted
Posted

Cheltenham tips. ( from a reall good source.   ) 

1.30.Leaky Tap (  but only if its running) 

2.10.Foundations.(  you can put your house on it ) 

2.40.Creosote (.    It's great over fences.  ) 

3.10.V-neck.         (   it a good jumper. ) 

3.40. Ironing board. ( you can put your shirt on it) 

4.10.Dusky Rug. (     never been beaten) 

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fd1972uk

fd1972uk

Posted
Posted

Used up more freebets, but keeping a lot more for Scottish Grand National/Grand National & US racenight. 

1330 porticello mb (5pl) 

Knights salute fb

1410 faivor ew (7p) fb

Cormier  ew (6p)

1450 mahler mission ew (5p)

Minella cocooner fb

1530 protekrokrat fb

Galvin mb2ndtofav

Chantry house ew (4p) fb

 

1610 bob and co fb 

1650 concertista fb

1730 cobblers dream ew (6) fb

 

Also got hillcrest and a plus tard part of a treble and hollow games as well part of a treble. Also win a free bet if royal pagaillie wins.

 

Good luck all 

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

irascible     2 10        1/6 pt ew     75/1   

surprise package  2 10   1/4 pt  win   12/1  

eric bloodaxe    2 50     1/6 pt  ew  45/1  

good time jonny   2 50   1/4 pt win    25/1   

party buisness   5 30     1/6 pt ew   40/1

banbridge    5 30     1/4  pt   win    20/1

 

 

 

P/L   +  121 pts

 

 

Edited by black rabbit
adding selections
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Sorry ....didn't have time to rate today been at work 12 hours but I'm going for gold Friday.....might even have a few forecasts......so I'll rate as many races as possible 

Triumph 

Pied piper  9.1 4.3 ...3rd

Vauban   8.9  2/1 ....1st 

I care allen   8.3 23.0 .....4th 

I'll try 10pt wins top 2 .....

 

Good start 

Edited by richard-westwood
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