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Racing Chat - Friday 18th March (Cheltenham Day 4)

The Brigadier
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black rabbit

black rabbit

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, black rabbit said:

irascible     2 10        1/6 pt ew     75/1   

surprise package  2 10   1/4 pt  win   12/1  

eric bloodaxe    2 50     1/6 pt  ew  45/1  

good time jonny   2 50   1/4 pt win    25/1   

party buisness   5 30     1/6 pt ew   40/1

banbridge    5 30     1/4  pt   win    20/1

 

 

 

P/L   +  121 pts

 

 

banbridge collects  in the lucky last   +     party buissness placed 5 places

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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On 3/17/2022 at 9:23 AM, The Brigadier said:

The final day and at least we should all know that the ground will have plenty of juice in it and I’ve worked on good to soft (soft in places) for my analysis. Hope you’ve all found a winner or three this week and here’s my thoughts on Day 4 :-

 

Cheltenham 1.30

A dozen juveniles go to post for the JCB Triumph Hurdle with the Irish holding the aces here with the front three in the market. Gordon Elliott’s Piped Piper beat Vauban on heavy ground on their respective hurdling debuts at Punchestown last New Years Eve by half a length and both have bolted up since. There probably won’t be much between the pair but as Pied Piper has had the course experience having won here in January and is also the bigger price he’s the pick today. Obviously ground conditions after Wednesdays rain is essential and he is proven on heavy ground. Elliott’s ‘2nd’ string is Fil Dor, a dual winner on soft ground but was 3L behind Vauban last time and will need to step it up again to take this. One horse who will love the softening ground and potentially the best of the home contingent is the Gary Moore trained Porticello, a dual winner in very soft ground at Chepstow and Haydock already this season. He’s worth a small ew saver.

 

PIED PIPER 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

PORTICELLO 1/2 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.10

A maximum field of 26 has been declared for the County Handicap Hurdle and as always is a tough race to crack. The Willie Mullins/Paul Townend favourite State Man could be chucked in on his handicap debut off of 141 and was touted earlier in the season as a likely Supreme Novice Hurdle contender. He could blow these away but is priced accordingly at around 5/1. Nigel Twiston Davies’ I Like To Move It has good form at the track and was runner up in the Betfair Hurdle last time - he too could be a player here. Dan Skelton has a very good record in this race winning it three times in the last six years and his West Cork who won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on the old course last November so can also be competitive. Brian Ellison’s Cormier is bidding to follow up his Kelso win from a fortnight ago under a 5lb penalty and shouldn’t mind the ground. Mrs Lorna Fowler’s novice Colonel Mustard is a very interesting runner and may just be the pick here making his handicap debut. He has plenty of form on soft ground and was actually third last time out in the grade one won by Sir Gerhard at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown (My Mate Mozzie way behind and re-opposes here on 6lb worse terms). If he was trained by Messrs Mullins or Elliott I think he would significantly shorter in the betting and he’s the main selection.

 

COLONEL MUSTARD 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power

STATE MAN 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.50

A real slog next up with the three mile Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a big field of 19. Gordon Elliott’s Ginto steps up in trip and looks a real stayer who’s been well touted by his trainer in pre Cheltenham previews. He won’t mind the bad ground and is on the short list here. The big danger may well be the Henry Daly trained Hillcrest, who is a massive horse at 18+ hands and is unbeaten on all his completed starts this season, last time out on heavy ground. He’s not the most fluent of jumpers and can be a bit clumsy at times but he has some engine and like Ginto looks sure to run well. Falcon Eight is an interesting outsider trained by the maestro Dermot Weld. A 109 rated performer on the flat, he won a 2m 7F maiden hurdle last month though has to prove himself on soft ground. Dan Skelton’s Ballygriffincottage is maybe the best outsider as he’ll keep going when others have chucked it in. A hard call between the front two but it’s Ginto for me from Hillcrest.

 

GINTO 2 points win @ 10/3 Paddy Power

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The blue riband race of the meeting is up next - the Gold Cup run over 3m 2F 70 yds. Eleven hopefuls will go to post including last year’s first three. Last year’s winner Minello Indo, trained by Henry De Bromhead bounced back to form last time when runner up to Conflated in the Irish Gold Cup and Robbie Power takes over from Jack Kennedy. Runner up last year was also trained by Henry De Bromhead in A Plus Tard who bolted up in the Betfair Chase on his re-appearance before a slightly disappointing runner up in the Savills Chase to Galvin over Christmas when beaten a short head. Rachael Blackmore knows him well and he’s my idea of the winner. Al Boum Photo was third last year having won the two previous renewals and may have had his day. I’m not sure the ground will be right for the Henderson runner Chantry House whilst Dan Skelton’s Protektorat has to prove his stamina although does appear to carry stable confidence. Galvin is another pushing for favouritism having just touched off A Plus Tard last time and has obvious claims but it’s A Plus Tard and De Bromhead and Blackmore for me.

 

A PLUS TARD 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 4.10

 

The Foxhunters is not my type of race and with our specialist expert @Darran analysing the race in depth elsewhere I’m more than happy to row in with his selection of the David Maxwell ridden Bob And Co that fell last year when in contention and actually beat the current favourite Billaway at Punchestown last Spring. 

 

BOB AND CO 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 4.50

The newest race at the Festival is the Mares Chase run over 2m 4F 127yds and predictably has only attracted a small field of eight. The best two at the weights are Mount Ida and Elimay who met at Fairyhouse on New Years Day over this trip when Gordon Elliott’s Mount Ida came out on top to the tune of 1/2L and re-opposes today on 3lb better terms. Elimay has landed the odds since in very soft ground but may have to play second fiddle here to Mount Ida once more. The other Mullins runner is Concertista who finished runner up in the mares hurdle here last year and is unbeaten in two novice chases this season at Cork and Limerick. She’s penalised 3lb for those and should be thereabouts. This should be going to the Irish with Mount Ida the likeliest winner.

 

MOUNT IDA 2 points win @ 9/4 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 5.30

The four day meeting concludes with the Martin Pipe conditional jockeys handicap hurdle run over 2m 4 56 yds with another maximum field of 24 lining up. Gordon Elliott always likes to win this event named after his former employer and saddles six today. Hollow Games is interesting on his handicap bow in a first time tongue tie as is his Au Fleuron who I’ve picked up a small tip for. Kevin Brogan has been booked for the latter and has to be part of the staking plan. Langer Dan was runner up a year ago to none other than Galopin Des Champs and appears to have been laid out for this by Dan Skelton. He’s had just the one quiet run since and has surprisingly been dropped 3lb for that effort meaning he can race today off of only 2lb higher than last years fine effort. Elliott may have six but Mullins saddles just the two in a race he has won three times in the last eight years. Adamantly Chosen is in a handicap for the first time and Richard Deegan has been booked whilst maybe more interesting is his other runner Five O’Clock who we haven’t seen since running in this race two years ago. Jack Foley is on him and if straight enough he could be competitive as he was possibly slightly unlucky in that run and is a pound lower now. It would be some training performance were he to win this after such a lay off. A tough contest that is always worth watching the market for but I’ll play a couple of bigger price horses to small stakes each way in Five O’Clock and Au Fleuron.

 

AU FLEURON 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

FIVE O’CLOCK 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

 

A profit of 3 points on the day. 

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