Racing Chat - Thursday 17th March (Cheltenham Day 3)

[The Brigadier]

Day three and the we now switch to the new course with fresher ground and the conditions just on the slow side still.

 

Cheltenham 1.30

Only four go to post for the Turners Novices’ Chase run over 2m 4F but we have an effective match between two of the best novices seen this season in Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs. The former is two from two over fences for Henry De Bromhead and will be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. Not everyone has been impressed with his jumping but he’s done little wrong to my eyes and can give the Willie Mullins trained Galopin Des Champs a race. He’s been impressive in winning both his chases at Leopardstown and like his main rival won at the Festival last season (he won the Martin Pipe whilst Bob Olinger took the Ballymore). Official ratings have Galopin a 3lb better horse and he may take this but it’ll be close. The other pair Busselton and El Barra are 19lb and 21lb inferior and can battle it out for the third prize money.

 

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 2 points win @ 5/4 Boylesports

 

Cheltenham 2.10

A maximum field of 24 will go to post for this year’s renewal of the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle run over three miles. Top weight Sire Du Berlais has been trained for this having won it in 2019 and 2020 and with top amateur Mr R James booked should be on anyones short list. Local trainer Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe has also been trained for this and must have a big chance although he certainly could of done with more rain. Winter Fog is one of several Irish challengers with chances and trained by master plot trainer Emmet Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend is another horse with a big chance. Gordon Elliott’s Dunboyne looks another Irish horse to have been plotted up for this and has crept into the bottom of the handicap here. A tough race and although he could do with some rain, the fact that the race is run on the slower new course should help Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe who ran 5th in the Albert Bartlett last year and ran a race full of promise on his re-appearance at Warwick which he was, surprisingly, dropped a couple of pounds for. Paddy Brennan take the ride and he’s the each way selection.

 

ALANPHILLIPE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5th 1234567 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.50

The Ryanair Chase run over 2m 4F 127 yds is next up and should be an Irish victory with last year’s very easy winner Allaho in the line up of only nine. He looks better than ever this season winning both of his starts in good fashion and looks the days banker for Messrs Mullins and Townend. Irish gold Cup winner Conflated represents the Gordon Elliott camp and runs here in preference to the Gold Cup on Friday. This is a drop in trip for him and he may struggle to live with Allaho’s pace. Dan Skelton saddles Shan Blue who’s not been seen since crashing out three from home when clear in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last October. Hard to put up a bet here as Allaho is so short but he really should be winning this comfortably if bringing his A game.

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Ten runners assemble for the Stayers Hurdle run over just short of three miles on the new course. Last years victor Flooring Porter is back to defend his title and should be thereabouts for Gavin Cromwell and Danny Mullins. The 2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar and 2019 winner Paisley Park are also present with preference for the latter who ran an extraordinary race last time here when planting himself at the start but coming through late to beat Champ on the run in. Klassical Dream is the most interesting to my eyes. Willie Mullins 8 year old won the Supreme here three years ago and was very impressive when stepping up in trip at Punchestown last April. He continued his progression when beating Flooring Porter at Leopardstown over Christmas when gifted an easy lead. He bombed out last time but if back to his previous form will take the beating here. He is a bit of a hard pulling front runner and Paul Townend will need to be at his very best to get the most out of him today. Royal Kahala won the race that Klassical Dream got beat in at Gowran Park last time and the mare also has claims. Another tough race with slight preference for Klassical Dream.

 

KLASSICAL DREAM 1 point win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.10

A big field of handicap chasers go to post for the Plate Handicap Chase. Philip Hobbs’ Celebre D’Allen maybe ten years old but doesn’t look that badly handicapped on his Warwick victory last month and has claims. Fergal O’Brien’s Imperial Alcazar impressed when winning over course and distance at the January trials meeting by ten lengths and although he’s been pushed up 8lb for that also should be thereabouts. Alan King, fresh from winning the Arkle on day one with Edwardstone, runs his eight year old mare The Glancing Queen. She also has claims although is better on soft ground which she may not get today. Gordon Elliott saddles three here with the most interesting being novice Grand Paradis who will be ridden by Davy Russell. Adrimel is two from two since fitted with blinkers and his trainer Tom Lacey is in excellent form. He could run well but is ideally suited by very soft ground. A tough handicap with the selection being Alan King’s The Glancing Queen who brings some decent novice form to the table and although ideally suited by slower ground may just get away with it here on her handicap debut.

 

THE GLANCING QUEEN 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5th 123456 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.50

Yet another big field of twenty two mares go to post for the mare’s novices’ hurdle. Willie Mullins runs seven with Dinoblue a very interesting runner. She looked very smart when winning on her racecourse debut ten weeks ago at Clonmel coasting home by 15L. That win was on heavy ground so she has to prove that she can handle better ground but such was the impression she made that day that she is the selection here with Mark Walsh riding for his retained owner JP McManus. Mullins also saddles Brandy Love who looked very wayward last time out when jumping violently out to her left. Obviously this course will suit but she may have her quirks. Grangee fell in that event two out when only a 3/1 chance and is yet another Mullins runner with a chance. Gordon Elliott relies on just the two in outsider Say Goodbye and Party Central who won a valuable handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last time. Dinoblue made a big impression on me when winning and is the bet here.

 

DINOBLUE 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 5.30

A maximum field of twenty four assemble for the finale on day three - the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase for amateur riders run over 3m 2F. Gordon Elliott has four declared with top weight Frontal Assault to be ridden by the useful Mr R James claiming 7lb a big player. He’s only raced three times over fences and will appreciate the step to this longer trip today. Smoking Gunn is the mount of Jamie Codd and was a winner over 3m 5F at Fairyhouse last November. He’s more exposed than Frontal Assault but the jockey booking could be significant. Henry De Bromhead saddles another interesting novice in Ain’t That A Shame who will be ridden by Mr Ben Harvey claiming 3lb. He’s lightly raced and has bumped into the likes of Stattler and Galopin Des Champs this season, he’s one for the shortlist. Noel Meade has his string in fine form and can take this however with his School Boy Hours who was last seen winning the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Thought good enough to be a serious Grand National challenger (probably next year as he’s too low in the weights to get in this year) he has the services of one of the best go to jockeys in the amateur game in Derek O’Connor. This looks to be going to the Irish although I must give a word to novice Come On Teddy who was placed over hurdles at the Festival last year for local trainer Tom George.

 

SCHOOL BOY HOURS 2 points each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

[black rabbit]

mighty blue   4 50     1/4 pt win    28/1   

nurse  susan  4 50  1/4  pt win    25/1

pileon   2 10   1/6 pt  ew   50/1   

 

 

P/L  + 122 pts

Edited March 17, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections

[Budgie 65]

Hi brigadier I think if u can have another look first Street 210 Stands out and 530 minds made up can u give me Ur view on them 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Budgie 65

[Budgie 65]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

mighty blue   4 50     1/4 pt win    28/1   

Have a look at party central

[Tedthewolf]

Looking forward to seeing your ratings for the Pertemps guys! .

I like  3 e/w The  Cob 50/1 If The Cap Fits 33/1 &  Third wind 25/1.

[Villa Chris]

Pertemps 2.10 

Sire Du Berlais 9.78 (9/2)

If The Cap Fits 9.7 (28/1)

Third Wind 9.63 (20/1)

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

The Plate 4.10 

Spiritofthegames 9.56 (16/1)

Hardline 9.26(28/1)

Imperial Alcazar 9.16( 5/1)

 

[Villa Chris]

Kim Muir 5.30 

Mister Fogpatches 9.5( 7/1)

Omar Maretti 9.26 

Elegant Escape 9.16(50/1)

Red Infrantry 9.16( 50/1)

Im a bit sceptical about the ratings of Elegant Escape and Red Infrantry so Smoking Gun could possibly be third best rated on 8.8(10/1)

Edited March 16, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Tedthewolf]

14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Pertemps 2.10 

Sire Du Berlais 9.78 (9/2)

If The Cap Fits 9.7 (28/1)

Third Wind 9.63 (20/1)

 

 

Where was The Cob in your ratings Chris?  Its  the same trainer and jockey combi as  Global Citizen looks to have a squeak.

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Where was The Cob in your ratings Chris?  Its  the same trainer and jockey combi as  Global Citizen looks to have a squeak.

8.82 which leaves him 7/23 in the ratings 

[Villa Chris]

With Mcfabulous being a non runner in the coral cup Commander Of Fleet(50/1) went into third top rated. Unfortunately I missed the boat but goes to show you ratings can pull in big winners 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

2.10 Cheltenham - 2pts win Sire Du Berlais @ 9/2 and 1pt e/w Stoney Mountain  @ 50/1

2.50 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Melon @ 18/1

3.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Royal Kahala @ 6/1

4.10 Cheltenham - 2pts win The Glancing Queen @ 4/1

4.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win Grangee @ 8/1

5.30 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Come on Teddy @ 12/1

Edited March 16, 2022 by Bathtime For Rupert

[Villa Chris]

I’ve got Stoney Mountain sitting 5th on ratings in the pertemps . Currently 50/1 . I mention this because Bathtime For Rupert has him as a selection . 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Looking forward to seeing your ratings for the Pertemps guys! .

I like  3 e/w The  Cob 50/1 If The Cap Fits 33/1 &  Third wind 25/1.

the cobs a cracking price, silly price day tomoz i suspect

 

[The Brigadier]

4 hours ago, Budgie 65 said:

Hi brigadier I think if u can have another look first Street 210 Stands out and 530 minds made up can u give me Ur view on them 

Hi Budgie, picked two easy races there pal ! I wouldn't put anyone off anything in them races. Both handle soft ground which is the most important thing . Good Luck. 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 7.00

THE THIN BLUE LINE 5/2

 

[Nigwilliam]

Chel 210. The Jam Man  20/1 bet365.

[yossa6133]

I've picked 5 the same as The Brigadier, which I find encouraging! I won't be parting with much money though, just gone for a small treble on Galopin Des Champs, Allaho and Dinoblue which was about 15/2.

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by yossa6133

[fd1972uk]

 

All free bets apart from 1st race and a couple of small ew un 1410

1330 Galopin Des champs moneyback if 2nd

1410 Sire Du Berlais

Alaphillipea

Took a couple of mentioned ew on here, heres hoping, as well as a couple of my own

1450 Allaho to win by at least 3l

1530 klassical dream

1610 celebre d'allen

Imperial alcazar

1650 party central

Dinoblue

1730 mister coffey

Omar maretti

 

Also have bob. Olinger and allaho double. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by fd1972uk

[MCLARKE]

Trend analysis for day 3.

1.30

Last ran more than 47 days ago, 5 from 19, rest 3 from 57. This leaves BOB OLINGER at 6/5.

2.10

Not in the top 5 in the betting, 1 from 140. This leaves SIRE DU BERLAIS, ALAPHILIPPE, WINTER FOG, DUNBOYNE, SASSY YET CLASSY.

Top 3 in the weights, 4 from 24. This leaves SIRE DU BERLAIS at 5/1, 7 places.

2.50

Bred in France, 8 from 41, rest 0 from 43. This reduces the field to 4.

Age = 7, 5 from 21, AE 2.42. This leaves FANION D'ESTRUVALat 28/1.

3.30

Age 6 or 7, 7 from 51, rest 1 from 62. This reduces the field to 4, FLOORING PORTER, HOME BY THE LEE, SONG FOR SOMEONE and ROYAL KAHALA.

Forecast odds less than 7/1, 2 from 18. This removes FLOORING PORTER.

Mares 0 from 5. This removes ROYAL KAHALA.

Not in the top 8 in the betting, 0 from 44. This leaves HOME BY THE LEE at 40/1, 4 places.

4.10

Not in 1st 2 last time, 3 from 132. This reduces the field to 8.

Forecast odds less than 8/1, 4 from 14. This leaves 4, THE GLANCING QUEEN, CELEBRE D'ALLEN, IMPERIAL ALCAZAR and GRAND PARADIS.

Top 5 in the weights, 0 from 37. This removes IMPERIAL ALCAZAR.

Beaten favourite, 0 from 20. This removes GRAND PARADIS.

Horses bred in Ireland, 6 from 93, AE 1.29. This leaves THE GLANCING QUEEN at 4/1, 6 places.

4.50

Last ran less than 39 days ago, 0 from 44. This reduces the field to 11.

Bred in France, 4 from 34, AE 1.60. This reduces the field to 4, STATUAIRE, GRANGEE, NURSE SUSAN and DINOBLUE.

Finished 1st or 2nd last time, 3 from 62. This removes NURSE SUSAN and DINO BLUE.

Not in the top 4 in the betting, 3 from 26, AE 2.32. This leaves STATUAIRE at 28/1, 5 places.

 

[Zilzalian]

And that's why (galopin) i never back short price horses no matter how good they are or how good i think they are.

[fd1972uk]

Bollocks never wanted that to happen, even needed it to finish in 2nd.

At least if allaho wins it'll soften the loss. 

[Villa Chris]

Bob Olinger well beaten there until the fall  and seems a bit over hyped . Seems a bet hurdler but time yet. I thought Galopin was seriously hurt then. Glad he seems ok now. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Villa Chris

[azzybear]

winter fog 2.10

[MCLARKE]

5.30

Not in the top 11 in the weights, 1 from 96.

Age = 7, 5 from 36, AE = 2.30. This leaves FRONTAL ASSAULT, FAKIR D'ALENE, ALMAZHAR GARDE and MISTER COFFEY.

Not in the top 11 in the betting, 3 from 71, AE 2.03. This leaves ALMAZHAR GARDE at 50/1, 6 places.

[Bronxie]

17 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Looking forward to seeing your ratings for the Pertemps guys! .

I like  3 e/w The  Cob 50/1 If The Cap Fits 33/1 &  Third wind 25/1.

Another great shout. Thank you 

[Villa Chris]

17 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Pertemps 2.10 

Sire Du Berlais 9.78 (9/2)

If The Cap Fits 9.7 (28/1)

Third Wind 9.63 (20/1)

 

 

Third Wind wins 

 

If the cap fits places

Edited March 17, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

19 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

The Plate 4.10 

Spiritofthegames 9.56 (16/1)

Hardline 9.26(28/1)

Imperial Alcazar 9.16( 5/1)

 

2nd and 3rd . Coole Cody 4th rated wins. Ew money back off Spiritofthegames 

[cannotbebeat]

Southwell
5.40 Love Your Work 7/5

Wolverhampton
7.30 Queen Aminatu 1/1

8.00 Dingle 13/8

8.30 Phantasy Mac 5/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Brigadier]

On 3/16/2022 at 8:33 AM, The Brigadier said:

Day three and the we now switch to the new course with fresher ground and the conditions just on the slow side still.

 

Cheltenham 1.30

Only four go to post for the Turners Novices’ Chase run over 2m 4F but we have an effective match between two of the best novices seen this season in Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs. The former is two from two over fences for Henry De Bromhead and will be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. Not everyone has been impressed with his jumping but he’s done little wrong to my eyes and can give the Willie Mullins trained Galopin Des Champs a race. He’s been impressive in winning both his chases at Leopardstown and like his main rival won at the Festival last season (he won the Martin Pipe whilst Bob Olinger took the Ballymore). Official ratings have Galopin a 3lb better horse and he may take this but it’ll be close. The other pair Busselton and El Barra are 19lb and 21lb inferior and can battle it out for the third prize money.

 

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 2 points win @ 5/4 Boylesports

 

Cheltenham 2.10

A maximum field of 24 will go to post for this year’s renewal of the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle run over three miles. Top weight Sire Du Berlais has been trained for this having won it in 2019 and 2020 and with top amateur Mr R James booked should be on anyones short list. Local trainer Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe has also been trained for this and must have a big chance although he certainly could of done with more rain. Winter Fog is one of several Irish challengers with chances and trained by master plot trainer Emmet Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend is another horse with a big chance. Gordon Elliott’s Dunboyne looks another Irish horse to have been plotted up for this and has crept into the bottom of the handicap here. A tough race and although he could do with some rain, the fact that the race is run on the slower new course should help Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe who ran 5th in the Albert Bartlett last year and ran a race full of promise on his re-appearance at Warwick which he was, surprisingly, dropped a couple of pounds for. Paddy Brennan take the ride and he’s the each way selection.

 

ALANPHILLIPE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5th 1234567 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.50

The Ryanair Chase run over 2m 4F 127 yds is next up and should be an Irish victory with last year’s very easy winner Allaho in the line up of only nine. He looks better than ever this season winning both of his starts in good fashion and looks the days banker for Messrs Mullins and Townend. Irish gold Cup winner Conflated represents the Gordon Elliott camp and runs here in preference to the Gold Cup on Friday. This is a drop in trip for him and he may struggle to live with Allaho’s pace. Dan Skelton saddles Shan Blue who’s not been seen since crashing out three from home when clear in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last October. Hard to put up a bet here as Allaho is so short but he really should be winning this comfortably if bringing his A game.

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Ten runners assemble for the Stayers Hurdle run over just short of three miles on the new course. Last years victor Flooring Porter is back to defend his title and should be thereabouts for Gavin Cromwell and Danny Mullins. The 2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar and 2019 winner Paisley Park are also present with preference for the latter who ran an extraordinary race last time here when planting himself at the start but coming through late to beat Champ on the run in. Klassical Dream is the most interesting to my eyes. Willie Mullins 8 year old won the Supreme here three years ago and was very impressive when stepping up in trip at Punchestown last April. He continued his progression when beating Flooring Porter at Leopardstown over Christmas when gifted an easy lead. He bombed out last time but if back to his previous form will take the beating here. He is a bit of a hard pulling front runner and Paul Townend will need to be at his very best to get the most out of him today. Royal Kahala won the race that Klassical Dream got beat in at Gowran Park last time and the mare also has claims. Another tough race with slight preference for Klassical Dream.

 

KLASSICAL DREAM 1 point win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.10

A big field of handicap chasers go to post for the Plate Handicap Chase. Philip Hobbs’ Celebre D’Allen maybe ten years old but doesn’t look that badly handicapped on his Warwick victory last month and has claims. Fergal O’Brien’s Imperial Alcazar impressed when winning over course and distance at the January trials meeting by ten lengths and although he’s been pushed up 8lb for that also should be thereabouts. Alan King, fresh from winning the Arkle on day one with Edwardstone, runs his eight year old mare The Glancing Queen. She also has claims although is better on soft ground which she may not get today. Gordon Elliott saddles three here with the most interesting being novice Grand Paradis who will be ridden by Davy Russell. Adrimel is two from two since fitted with blinkers and his trainer Tom Lacey is in excellent form. He could run well but is ideally suited by very soft ground. A tough handicap with the selection being Alan King’s The Glancing Queen who brings some decent novice form to the table and although ideally suited by slower ground may just get away with it here on her handicap debut.

 

THE GLANCING QUEEN 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5th 123456 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.50

Yet another big field of twenty two mares go to post for the mare’s novices’ hurdle. Willie Mullins runs seven with Dinoblue a very interesting runner. She looked very smart when winning on her racecourse debut ten weeks ago at Clonmel coasting home by 15L. That win was on heavy ground so she has to prove that she can handle better ground but such was the impression she made that day that she is the selection here with Mark Walsh riding for his retained owner JP McManus. Mullins also saddles Brandy Love who looked very wayward last time out when jumping violently out to her left. Obviously this course will suit but she may have her quirks. Grangee fell in that event two out when only a 3/1 chance and is yet another Mullins runner with a chance. Gordon Elliott relies on just the two in outsider Say Goodbye and Party Central who won a valuable handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last time. Dinoblue made a big impression on me when winning and is the bet here.

 

DINOBLUE 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 5.30

A maximum field of twenty four assemble for the finale on day three - the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase for amateur riders run over 3m 2F. Gordon Elliott has four declared with top weight Frontal Assault to be ridden by the useful Mr R James claiming 7lb a big player. He’s only raced three times over fences and will appreciate the step to this longer trip today. Smoking Gunn is the mount of Jamie Codd and was a winner over 3m 5F at Fairyhouse last November. He’s more exposed than Frontal Assault but the jockey booking could be significant. Henry De Bromhead saddles another interesting novice in Ain’t That A Shame who will be ridden by Mr Ben Harvey claiming 3lb. He’s lightly raced and has bumped into the likes of Stattler and Galopin Des Champs this season, he’s one for the shortlist. Noel Meade has his string in fine form and can take this however with his School Boy Hours who was last seen winning the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Thought good enough to be a serious Grand National challenger (probably next year as he’s too low in the weights to get in this year) he has the services of one of the best go to jockeys in the amateur game in Derek O’Connor. This looks to be going to the Irish although I must give a word to novice Come On Teddy who was placed over hurdles at the Festival last year for local trainer Tom George.

 

SCHOOL BOY HOURS 2 points each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

A loss of 10 points today. Behind on the meeting but we go again tomorrow !