Juggernaut #2

[aldric]

You will come good mate, it's a marathon not a sprint ??‍♂️

[harry_rag]

Bet 159 (11.1): 12 points on each team shown a card in Valencia v A Madrid at 1/20 with 365

Bank is 45.66 points down so will go with 12 point stakes to clear it with "just" the 4 double ups rather than 5!

[harry_rag]

Bet 160 (11,2): 12.6 points on RB Leipzig to win v FC Teutonia Ottensen at 1.04

[harry_rag]

Bet 161 (11.3): 13 points on Man City +1 corner v Forest at 1/33 with Hills

1/14 for the straight "most corners" doesn't look bad when it was 1/150 elsewhere, might as well take the handicap start to make it even more "certain". Go-to bet would usually be City to get 1+ corners in each half but I couldn't find that option so I'll go with the belief that there's no way City get out-cornered at home by a promoted team.

[harry_rag]

Bet 162 (11.4): 12 points on England Women to score the 1st goal v Luxembourg at 1/20 with Hills

I saw 1/7 for them to get 3+ corners somewhere but I think it's been taken down. Not impossible that the visitors score 1st but I think it's a generous price for it not to be the case.

[alexcaruso808]

21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 162 (11.4): 12 points on England Women to score the 1st goal v Luxembourg at 1/20 with Hills

I saw 1/7 for them to get 3+ corners somewhere but I think it's been taken down. Not impossible that the visitors score 1st but I think it's a generous price for it not to be the case.

Smarkets halted all inplay for that match once it go to about 3 - 0.  ?

[harry_rag]

13 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Smarkets halted all inplay for that match once it go to about 3 - 0.  ?

To be fair the markets pretty much had it pegged as a 10-0 game in terms of the handicap lines and total goals. I noticed at the break that Hills were going 1/150 for England to score the next goal so I do think the 1/20 was genuine value. Obviously England had qualified already but they wouldn't have wanted to lose their clean sheet record in qualifying to Luxembourg.

[harry_rag]

Bet 163 (11.4): 10 points on a goal to be scored in Wolves v Man City at evens with Hills

This week’s “Epic Value” offer is probably the best yet and seems a decent way to try and fast track the next double up.

[harry_rag]

Didn't have to wait long for that last one!

Bet 164 (12.1): 12 points on Benfica to score in the first 60 minutes v Maritimo at 1/12 with Hills

"No way" they don't score by then (obviously there is a way but they've netted in the first half of the last 10 renewals of this fixture and I think they'll do so again today).

[harry_rag]

Bet 165 (12.2) 13 points on the Leigh-Leigh double result v York at 1/80 with Lads

Far superior to the rest of the division, 60 point favourites in the game, they should be well in command by the break.

[harry_rag]

Bet 166 (12.3) 10 points on a goal scored in Arsenal v Spurs at evens with Hills

[harry_rag]

Bet 167 (12.4) 20 points on Munster to have the highest scoring half v Zebre at 1/18 with 365

[harry_rag]

23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 167 (12.4) 20 points on Munster to have the highest scoring half v Zebre at 1/18 with 365

Funny game with Munster winning the first half 21-0 then declaring and Zebre just managing 5 points after the break but job done and another double up complete.

Bet 168 (13.1): 12 points on Man City to get at least 1 corner in each half v Man U at 1/50 with Hills

United expected to sit deep and City expected to rack up a fair few corners. Rare for them to have a cornerless half at home.

[harry_rag]

Bet 169 (14.1): 12.5 points on either team to score 30+ points in Leigh v Batley at 1/16 with Sky Bet

Leigh could have an off day but I'd be less surprised if the bet was in by half time than if it lost! 

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 169 (14.1): 12.5 points on either team to score 30+ points in Leigh v Batley at 1/16 with Sky Bet

That was actually 13.2 (2nd bet of 13th double up attempt). 20.28 points down as of now so this and another successful double up would see me edge in front.

[harry_rag]

Bet 170 (13.3): 13 points on Liverpool at least 1 corner in each half v Rangers at 1/40 with Hills

[harry_rag]

Bet 171 (13.4): 13 points on RB Leipzig at least 1 corner in each half v Celtic at 1/10 with Hills

Not as strong favourites as when I usually go for this bet but reflected in the odds. I fancy the bet on an instinctive level and, from a value angle, think it would land more often than the odds imply in games between these 2 teams.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 171 (13.4): 13 points on RB Leipzig at least 1 corner in each half v Celtic at 1/10 with Hills

Their first corner arrived in added time at the end of the first half and their second as the clock hit 90 minutes! 

That'll teach me to go handing out "how to do GH" advice on other people's threads! 

[harry_rag]

Bet 172 (13.5): 15 points on Man C +3 v Copenhagen at 1.01

I tend to swerve 1.01 shots in this thread but as it's a "certainty" I'll make an exception!

[harry_rag]

Bet 173 (13.6): 15 points on England Women to score 3 unanswered tries v Fiji at 1/8 with 365

Risking a first-time market here but, with England around 58 point favourites I think the price is too big here. Pips 1/100 for total tries >4.5 and 1/40 for >5.5 though both of those are solid enough I think.

[harry_rag]

Bet 174 (13.7) 10 points on Maddison to have at least 1 SoT for Leicester v C Palace at evens with Hills

Happy to take the tenner allowed on this as value but hesitated about putting it on here as it's obviously not a "cert". As it will achieve the double up and Maddison is in decent form I've decided to risk it. 

[harry_rag]

That completes the double up (and a bit more) so another winning one will get the thread back in the black! Just 6.63 points down now. Slow and steady.

[harry_rag]

Bet 175 (14.1): 12 points on New Zealand to have the highest scoring half v Wales at 1/80 with 365 (Women’s Rugby World Cup)

Could be hard work for Wales, especially in the second half.

[harry_rag]

11 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Could be hard work for Wales, especially in the second half.

 22-7 in the first half and 34-5 in the second. Should have played “to win both halves”!

[harry_rag]

Bet 176 (14.2): 12 points on New Zealand to lead at the 20 minute mark v Lebanon at 1/5 with 365 (Rugby League World Cup)

40+ point favourites and I expect them to start quickly. There are safer options but this appeals as best value.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

40+ point favourites and I expect them to start quickly. There are safer options but this appeals as best value.

6-0 down after 2 minutes, level by the 6th minute but didn’t go in front till the 25th. One step back in the quest to recover the initial bank.

[harry_rag]

7-7 in the double up era. Here's the current situation.

"Juggernaut" staking plan: 122 bets and -25.6 points

Double up approach: 54 bets and +7.12 points

Total: 176 bets and -18.48 points

Happy enough with that, hitting a 50% strike rate and showing a modest profit. 2 double ups away from getting back in front.

[harry_rag]

Bet 177 (15.1): 12 points on neither team to score 0 points in Tonga v Papua New Guinea at 1/9 with 365

I can't see either team being shut out here and certainly think the odds should be shorter than that.

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I can't see either team being shut out here and certainly think the odds should be shorter than that.

 Dogs PNG cross after 6 minutes and Tonga after 14.

[harry_rag]

Bet 178 (15.2): 13 points on Wales to trail at anytime v Cook Islands at 1/16 with 365

Wales may keep this close till halftime and could score first but I expect their opponents to pull away in the second half. Hard to see Wales making every post a winning one.