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Juggernaut #2


harry_rag

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Bet 161 (11.3): 13 points on Man City +1 corner v Forest at 1/33 with Hills

1/14 for the straight "most corners" doesn't look bad when it was 1/150 elsewhere, might as well take the handicap start to make it even more "certain". Go-to bet would usually be City to get 1+ corners in each half but I couldn't find that option so I'll go with the belief that there's no way City get out-cornered at home by a promoted team.

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21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 162 (11.4): 12 points on England Women to score the 1st goal v Luxembourg at 1/20 with Hills

I saw 1/7 for them to get 3+ corners somewhere but I think it's been taken down. Not impossible that the visitors score 1st but I think it's a generous price for it not to be the case.

Smarkets halted all inplay for that match once it go to about 3 - 0.  ?

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13 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Smarkets halted all inplay for that match once it go to about 3 - 0.  ?

To be fair the markets pretty much had it pegged as a 10-0 game in terms of the handicap lines and total goals. I noticed at the break that Hills were going 1/150 for England to score the next goal so I do think the 1/20 was genuine value. Obviously England had qualified already but they wouldn't have wanted to lose their clean sheet record in qualifying to Luxembourg.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Didn't have to wait long for that last one!

Bet 164 (12.1): 12 points on Benfica to score in the first 60 minutes v Maritimo at 1/12 with Hills

"No way" they don't score by then (obviously there is a way but they've netted in the first half of the last 10 renewals of this fixture and I think they'll do so again today).

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23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 167 (12.4) 20 points on Munster to have the highest scoring half v Zebre at 1/18 with 365

Funny game with Munster winning the first half 21-0 then declaring and Zebre just managing 5 points after the break but job done and another double up complete.

Bet 168 (13.1): 12 points on Man City to get at least 1 corner in each half v Man U at 1/50 with Hills

United expected to sit deep and City expected to rack up a fair few corners. Rare for them to have a cornerless half at home.

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 169 (14.1): 12.5 points on either team to score 30+ points in Leigh v Batley at 1/16 with Sky Bet

That was actually 13.2 (2nd bet of 13th double up attempt). 20.28 points down as of now so this and another successful double up would see me edge in front.

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Bet 171 (13.4): 13 points on RB Leipzig at least 1 corner in each half v Celtic at 1/10 with Hills

Not as strong favourites as when I usually go for this bet but reflected in the odds. I fancy the bet on an instinctive level and, from a value angle, think it would land more often than the odds imply in games between these 2 teams.

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 171 (13.4): 13 points on RB Leipzig at least 1 corner in each half v Celtic at 1/10 with Hills

Their first corner arrived in added time at the end of the first half and their second as the clock hit 90 minutes! :unsure

That'll teach me to go handing out "how to do GH" advice on other people's threads! :lol

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Bet 173 (13.6): 15 points on England Women to score 3 unanswered tries v Fiji at 1/8 with 365

Risking a first-time market here but, with England around 58 point favourites I think the price is too big here. Pips 1/100 for total tries >4.5 and 1/40 for >5.5 though both of those are solid enough I think.

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Bet 174 (13.7) 10 points on Maddison to have at least 1 SoT for Leicester v C Palace at evens with Hills

Happy to take the tenner allowed on this as value but hesitated about putting it on here as it's obviously not a "cert". As it will achieve the double up and Maddison is in decent form I've decided to risk it. :hope

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7-7 in the double up era. Here's the current situation.

"Juggernaut" staking plan: 122 bets and -25.6 points

Double up approach: 54 bets and +7.12 points

Total: 176 bets and -18.48 points

Happy enough with that, hitting a 50% strike rate and showing a modest profit. 2 double ups away from getting back in front.

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