Juggernaut #2

[aldric]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 200 (20.1): 12 points on Uruguay to get at least one card v Portugal at 1/25 with PP.

Didnt take long ?

[harry_rag]

Bet 201 (20.2): 10 points on Brazil to beat Cameroon at evens with Hills

Not a cert (especially given events at this World Cup) but I'll chance it as a value play to accelerate this attempt.

[harry_rag]

I must need my swede examining! 

[harry_rag]

Bet 202 (21.1): 12 points on at least one card in each half at 1/4 with Hills

Essentially a bet on a second half card and I think the price is generous even allowing for the game being pretty much over as a contest.

[harry_rag]

Last bet lost so back to the beginning and another of those tempting/sucker propositions from Hills!

Bet 203 (22.1) 10 points on Neymar to have at least one shot on target v Croatia at evens

[harry_rag]

Bet 204 (22.2): 22 points on Leinster to score 20+ points v Gloucester at 1/40 with 365

[harry_rag]

Bet 205 (22.3): 12 points on Mbappe to win 1+ fouls at 1/8 with Sky Bet

Just enough to achieve the double up. Going off piste here but at least I don't blow the whole stake if it goes wrong. I just don't see him going through this game without drawing at least 1 foul. Apparently his foul numbers in the WC so far have been (1st game to latest) 0, 3, 1, 1, 2, 0.

[harry_rag]

Mbappe not fouled till extra time. Not inclined to regret the bet given the unusual nature of the game (France not really turning up until well into the 2nd half) as I don't think it was necessarily a bad price before the event, Still some of the current stake to play with:

Bet 206 (22.4): 10.55 points on Sheffield U +3 v Wigan at 1.02

Wigan yet to score 3 this season and Sheff U yet to lose with that big a start.

[harry_rag]

Bet 207 (22.5): 11 points on Aberdeen >0.5 cards v Rangers at 1/20 with PP

[harry_rag]

Double up tally is currently 10-11 and five bets into the 22nd attempt.

"Juggernaut" staking plan: 122 bets and -25.6 points with an ROI of -1.47%

Return to £10 level stakes would've been a loss of £14.28 with an ROI of -1.17%

Double up approach: 85 bets and -2.83 points with an ROI of -0.26%

Return to £10 level stakes would've been a profit of £5.26 with an ROI of 0.62%

Total: 208 bets and -28.43 points with an ROI of -1%

Return to £10 level stakes would've been a loss of £9.02 with an ROI of -0.32%

Jury's out in terms of "proof of concept" (looking more like a close to break even proposition rather than anything that might show a worthwhile profit). Current thinking is new thread for the New Year with a £20 staring stake. I'd have said the double up approach was a definite but can't help but notice that level stakes has the best return so I'll have to give it some thought.

[harry_rag]

Bet 208 (22.6): 12 points on Celtic to get at least 1 corner in each half v Livingston at 1/33 with 365

[harry_rag]

Bet 209 (22.7): 12 points on <52 points in New Orleans at Cleveland at 1/16 with 365

Risky in as much as it's hardly my specialist sport, though I do like tilting at the anytime TD scorer market. That said, been reading an article about the likely impact of the weather this weekend and this game is highlighted as unlikely to exceed the low 30s expected points lines. Surely this game isn't hitting the 50 mark! 

[harry_rag]

Bet 210 (22.8): 10 points on Spurs to score v Brentford at evens with Hills

Mixed results from using these "Epic Odds" to turbo charge the double ups. This one is by no means a cert but it's clear value so I'm risking it.

[harry_rag]

Bet 211 (22.9): 23 points on >25.5 points on LA Chargers at Indianapolis at 1/21 with 365#

Now that I've obviously cracked this NFL lark  might as well go again in a game that is quite fancied for overs and is expected to have around 45 points. Completes the double up if it wins.

[harry_rag]

Chargers won 20-3 

Basically lost for want of one more score with the Colts obviously the main culprits by scoring only 3. Contrast that with their last game where they set an unwelcome record by managing to blow a 33 point lead. Happy to rue this one as the occasional inevitable loss rather than regret it as an especially poor choice. It’s a reminder that even just trying to double up brings the risk that the loss will land on the worst possible bet.

[aldric]

Hate it when it's the last bet that fails on a double up.

Very unfortunate.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, aldric said:

Hate it when it's the last bet that fails on a double up.

Very unfortunate.

Yeah, given that the double up selections are slightly in front to level stakes it’s got me thinking about how best to stake them! Level stakes or % of bank maybe.

[aldric]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Yeah, given that the double up selections are slightly in front to level stakes it’s got me thinking about how best to stake them! Level stakes or % of bank maybe.

Probably best with level stakes but it always feels like an achievement when you get the double up! ?

[harry_rag]

On 12/27/2022 at 4:59 PM, aldric said:

Probably best with level stakes but it always feels like an achievement when you get the double up! ?

True, though it also has an effect on the selection process for the final bet; do you go for a selection at the minimum odds needed to get you over the line or something at bigger odds that only needs a smaller stake. Can't get away from the fact that you're putting the biggest stake on the final selection without it necessarily being any stronger a selection than the first bet.

I've decided I'll go for stake being a % of bank and see how it goes. Takes the "emotion" out of it in terms of the decision making, all bets are relatively equal! I'll call this thread closed and start a new one for next year.