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Juggernaut #2


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Bet 100 (2): 17 points treble on Udinese +5, Torino +5 and Bologna +5 v Fiorentina, Atalanta and Inter at 1.074 with Lads

Might as well treble them up as not much difference to the bottom line if I hit a single loser compared to singles.

This is bet 100; I incorrectly listed 2 bet 92s hence the leap from 98 to 100 now.

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 103 (5): 18 points on Sassuolo +5 v Napoli at 1/25 with Lads

:unsure Kerboom! Might have to wave the white flag, this would be borderline too much time and effort even if it was showing a small profit (which is about the best anyone could expect). 29.58 points down so far (19.17 to 10 point level stakes).

The staking plan's not the issue (it does worse after a loss but better during a good run and while I'm in front) it's simply the fact that I'm not beating the odds. That said, the staking plan is probably a little too aggressive in terms of the loss recovery element and it did cost me in terms of not re-setting the stake when I got back in front after 30 odd winning bets.

Time for a bit of wound licking and contemplation! :)

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  • 3 weeks later...

Bet 104 (1): 18 points on each team shown a card in Nottingham Forest v Sheffield U at 1/6 with 365

On 4/30/2022 at 4:13 PM, harry_rag said:

this would be borderline too much time and effort even if it was showing a small profit

That's the main issue for me; I feel I was spending too long looking for these bets, placing them and managing whether they got matched or not, posting on here etc. I've enjoyed the break and spending less of my time on this type of betting. That said, sometimes a bet comes to my attention that strikes me as a particularly strong selection, so I'll be carrying on posting any that I see rather than actively looking for them every day.

I'm carrying on with the staking plan in an attempt to get back in the black but will review before the bank dips below 50 points. I'm inclined to think the best way to approach these bets is the simple double up approach applied by Skittle. Either you hit a 50% plus strike rate and make a profit or you fall below and make a loss.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Bet 110 (7): 17.5 points on each team shown a card in Italy v Argentina at 2/7 with 365

Shoot me down if this one tanks, given that I'm betting on a fixture that hasn't been played since 1993! :)

Chilean ref doesn't appear to have handled a game involving a European team before and there's usually a bit of juice in simple friendlies between teams from the 2 continents. As short as 1/8 elsewhere, we'll see what we shall see.

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On 3/24/2022 at 3:19 PM, harry_rag said:

Bet 49 (5): 12.5 points on each team shown a card in Italy v N Macedonia at 1/5 with 365

This is the "risky value" play; 2+ cards at 1/40 or 1+ away cards at 1/33 if you want less jeopardy.

Just remembered that Italy let me down previously in this market, when a place at the World Cup was at stake. With Argentina already shown a card tonight I'm hoping it's not a case of history repeating itself.

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Bets 115/6 (12/13): 5 points on Featherstone R to win either half v Bradford at 1/20 PP and 17.5 on them to have the highest scoring half at 1/18 with 365.

Obviously the former is the safer bet and is preferred given the marginal difference in price but PP are fearful of my obvious expertise in this level of RL and would only allow me a fiver on at 1/20! :wall

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Bet 117 (14): 22 points on 10+ booking points each team at 1/10 Sky Bet

Only one spread firm and one fixed odds firm has priced this game up. I could make a case for a sell at 54 or taking 5/4 for 50+ points but neither make quite enough appeal for a "proper" bet. I do think the fixed odds prices are a little high and it shouldn't be asking too much for each team to see at least one card.

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And another one bites the dust. After 18 winners the run is brought to an end by the 1st total goals bet since before the last loser.

From 29.58 points down I got back to within 3.6 points of being level but I'm 25.6 points down again now.

Overall it's 114 winners from 122 bets for a level stakes loss of 14.28 points. ROI is -1.47% actual and -1.17% level stakes.

Time to bin the staking plan as the loss recovery element is too ambitious. I'm switching to a simple roll over till doubled basis. If I can hit a 50% success rate I make a profit, if not I make a loss. I make it I'd have managed 5 from 12 attempts so far.

Bank stands at 74.4 points and I'll be starting each attempt with 10 points. Stakes may be subject to a degree of rounding up or down for convenience.

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Ok, time to start the new "double up" era with a bit of double jeopardy.

Bet 123 (1.1) and 124 (2.1): 10 points each on England to score 20+ points v Barbarians at 1/16 with 365 and to score 1+ tries in each half at 1/14 with Sky Bet.

123 and 124 being the overall bet count for the thread and 1.1 and 2.1 denoting the first bets on double-up attempts 1 and 2.

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