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Racing chat- Thursday 10th Feb


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Haven't decided on my usual type selections yet but thought I would write up some thoughts on the possible ratings selections.

2.10 Don Ajays Ways is a best price of 5/2 on Oddschecker atm so I'll give the race a miss as it is RP RPR 2nd best rated and I don't want to strike a bet with 4 selections where I will lose money if the favourite wins

3.37 Ffos Alkopop and Fairlawn Flyer are too short to bet on.  Summit Like Herbie and Ballybreen could offer value but no bet for me

4.07 Ffos.  Fascinating race with the ratings.  I have backed Earl Of Wisdom 1 pt win 6/1, Minnie Escape 1 pt win at 6/1, Heure De Gloire 0.5 pt win at 12/1, Gulliver Collonge 0.5 pt win at 12/1 and Champaigne Rythm 1 pt win at 12/1 = 3.50 pts staked

There is another possible ratings race in the 7.30 at Kempton but whether I will get around to it or not I don't know

Total stakes so far today are 3.50 points

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Fun Picks - all Bet365 unless stated

Doncaster

1300 - 1 The Steward          13/2   2nd
1335 - 3 Beraz                     9/4    5th
1410 - 6 Clondaw Pretender   6/1  4th
1445 - 6 The Unit               6/1   WON
1520 - 6 Geometrical        4/1  WON

Ffos Las
1352 - 2 Drash On Ruby   11/4   6th
1537 - 4 Alkopop       7/2    5th 
1607 - 1 Feivel         6/1    DNF
1640 - 5 Honour The Master     14/1  Unplaced

Huntingdon
1510 - 2 Harbour Lake      5/1   Fell
1615 - 7 Lincoln Lyn        5/1 William Hill   DNF

Thurles
1530 - 4 The Little Yank   7/2   WON
1630 - 3 Round The Buoy      9/2  WON

Newcastle
1625 - 5 Jomont       5/2  5th
1800 - 3 Eeh Bah Gum   6/1  7th
1900 - 2 Devious Beau   3/1 3rd
 

Edited by ipswich45
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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

210 donc 

Catlin  7.9 9/1 

Steel wave  7.4 12.0 

Ajays ways 7.3  3/1  

No cruise yet  7.0 7/1 

Tough race ....ajays ways is short fav and well fancied but this looks more open than that ....Interesting race ....2pt ajay 1pt others  

Beaten in a photo by a 66/1 shot !!...gutted ....2nd and 3rd ....I'd got 11/1 too?

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2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Beaten in a photo by a 66/1 shot !!...gutted ....2nd and 3rd ....I'd got 11/1 too?

That was so unlucky to be beaten a nose.  At least your ratings produced two selections that were there at the business end of the race.  Good luck with any others that you do today 

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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Haven't decided on my usual type selections yet but thought I would write up some thoughts on the possible ratings selections.

2.10 Don Ajays Ways is a best price of 5/2 on Oddschecker atm so I'll give the race a miss as it is RP RPR 2nd best rated and I don't want to strike a bet with 4 selections where I will lose money if the favourite wins

3.37 Ffos Alkopop and Fairlawn Flyer are too short to bet on.  Summit Like Herbie and Ballybreen could offer value but no bet for me

4.07 Ffos.  Fascinating race with the ratings.  I have backed Earl Of Wisdom 1 pt win 6/1, Minnie Escape 1 pt win at 6/1, Heure De Gloire 0.5 pt win at 12/1, Gulliver Collonge 0.5 pt win at 12/1 and Champaigne Rythm 1 pt win at 12/1 = 3.50 pts staked

There is another possible ratings race in the 7.30 at Kempton but whether I will get around to it or not I don't know

Total stakes so far today are 3.50 points

I've blown all my racing research time today as I got caught up with domestic problems that needed sorting out.

I have napped Eureka Creek in the 3.02 at Ffos as it is way ahead on ratings with both Timeform & Racing Post's RPR's.  Its price at 4/5 is only for bold members such as @MCLARKEto invest in.  It is running well and I hope that it will win

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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

730 newc

Dreamseller 9.0 10/1 

Magical mile ...9.0 6.8 

Engles rock 8.6 4.2 

Broctune red  8.4 8.8 

2pt engle ...1pt others  

 

Jeez ....done on the line again by a 33/1 ....one of those days!! .....2nd and 3rd .....but ratings are working well so I'm over the moon ....sometimes it's just luck ? 

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1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

unlucky richard /   richard hows the P/L on your trailing of the system over say    100 races  looking 

I've doubled my 100pt bank once then removed .......I was around +83 on my 150 pt Bank but I have been slightly adapting the rules as I've gone along so I'm not classing past performance as the current .....I know it works without any doubts .....I just want solid rules that I can use for any racing .....I.e flat ...jumps ...allweather etc .....the all weather for instance requires a +1 addition for form on newc wolv or soutgwell as opposed to ling kemp and chelm and that's proven now so its set in stone ........

Jump racing I'm really happy with ....I am listening to fellow punters comments about days since run etc ....and maybe omitting horses with poor form but a few of the big priced winners I've had in past were coming off bad form and long layoffs so I think I'd lose out in long term ......I haven't completely ironed out every crease on the jumps but I feel I'm 90% there .......

In the current mode since coming on here I'm showing +27.00 ....which considering its been mainly poor weekly races I'm really happy with ....any profit is a good profit in my eyes and that's off small sample of say 17 18 races .....so times that by 4 and it woukd be around 100pt for the 100 race mark  which is in line with what it's done in past  so far .....of course there's no guarantees but I'm proud of it ........just looking to have a lot of fun at chelt .....then can get cracking with the flat ......and who knows ....a couple of 25/1 winners ? and we'll be flying high ....and it's very possible with this .....I'd say highly likely 

And look at today !!.....2 horses pipped on line ....could have been another 12 to 14 pts urrgh ...lol 

Edited by richard-westwood
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12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I've doubled my 100pt bank once then removed .......I was around +83 on my 150 pt Bank but I have been slightly adapting the rules as I've gone along so I'm not classing past performance as the current .....I know it works without any doubts .....I just want solid rules that I can use for any racing .....I.e flat ...jumps ...allweather etc .....the all weather for instance requires a +1 addition for form on newc wolv or soutgwell as opposed to ling kemp and chelm and that's proven now so its set in stone ........

Jump racing I'm really happy with ....I am listening to fellow punters comments about days since run etc ....and maybe omitting horses with poor form but a few of the big priced winners I've had in past were coming off bad form and long layoffs so I think I'd lose out in long term ......I haven't completely ironed out every crease on the jumps but I feel I'm 90% there .......

In the current mode since coming on here I'm showing +27.00 ....which considering its been mainly poor weekly races I'm really happy with ....any profit is a good profit in my eyes and that's off small sample of say 17 18 races .....so times that by 4 and it woukd be around 100pt for the 100 race mark  which is in line with what it's done in past  so far .....of course there's no guarantees but I'm proud of it ........just looking to have a lot of fun at chelt .....then can get cracking with the flat ......and who knows ....a couple of 25/1 winners ? and we'll be flying high ....and it's very possible with this .....I'd say highly likely 

thank you richard  its a  brilliant concept you have developed and indeed you should be proud of it and i would not knock yourself out trying to iron out "every crease" 

there's a crack in everything  and go with your 90%     thanks again  and may the gods be with you

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I've blown all my racing research time today as I got caught up with domestic problems that needed sorting out.

I have napped Eureka Creek in the 3.02 at Ffos as it is way ahead on ratings with both Timeform & Racing Post's RPR's.  Its price at 4/5 is only for bold members such as @MCLARKEto invest in.  It is running well and I hope that it will win

RESULTS UPDATE

I think I've placed better bets about even money shots than I did with my ratings bet today.  I should have taken a leaf out of @MCLARKE's book and put my 3.5 points on my Nap bet at 10/11.  I will leave these type of bets with @richard-westwoodand @Wildgardenin the future.  If I do get tempted into having a bet in the wide open handicaps and especially at festivals I will choose from one of their selections if they post up on the day.  Funny enough I thought that Fairlawn Flyer in the 3.37 at Ffos might run well when I saw that both Alistair and Wanderlust napped it.  It won well didn't it?   My loss today was 3.5 pts = -28.14 MTD and -101.16 YTD.

I have found out what I wanted to know about the Timeform and RPR ratings which is that I will use the top 2 where I have 4 runners under 9/1 and the top 4 where I have more than that to consider.  I couldn't find Atomic Angel, one of Richard's, in any of those so that shows how good his ratings are.  I will also use the RPR's to check back on the previous performances of horses and not necessarily believe in the current day's rating.  This can be quite revealing to show improvement and/or regression in form.  I can't do this with Timeform because I don't subscribe to them.  I don't subscribe to the RP either but found the ratings in the horse's previous results history.

It was good for to see that my Nap today was found by using the clear ratings of Timeform and RP's RPR. Plus 9 with Timeform and +14 with RP's RPR, though the horse was a skinny price.  One still has to be careful though because in the first race at Ffos Lubeat Foras was + 4 ahead on Timeform and a massive +13 ahead with its RPR (it was bumped up 12 points from its previous run).  I read that the horse jumped right and now was on a left handed track and previously made mistakes.  It looked as though there were some unexposed horses in the race so luckily I left it alone.

I won't be around tomorrow as I'm on another good deed mission to help my sister out but I will try to find a Nap selection now in attempt to stay ahead of the very competent competition of PL   

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