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Tennis Tips - February 21 - February 27


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  • 3 weeks later...

Another juicy week is ahead of us!

Jenson Brooksby (+4.5) to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.89 with Pinnacle

While I have utmost respect for Zverev's abilities, giving 4.5 lines to someone as talented as Brooksby looks a bit too much to me. Brooksby can challenge the very best on a good day and he should keep this close more often than not. I'd have the line at 3.5 honestly.

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Some days the pickings look a little slim. It's almost better to throttle back, and not risk too much. Whatever you don't lose is money you don't need to make back.

I would be quite surprised to see Goffin get past Daniel today. Goffin just looks like 1/2 the player he was, and injuries in tennis are brutal. They take a long time to recover. They also lead to compensation injuries. ie You have a left knee injury, and you land up getting right hip pain etc.  I think the 8/10 on Daniel is reasonable.

My surprise for the day is Musetti to beat Djokovic. Musetti definitely has the game to do this. Playing well, looking physically strong. That looping deep ball, that he used against Djoko at the French a few years ago, gave DJoko a lot of problems. I think he takes a set at least, but am going small bet for the outright win.

For me Grigor Dimitrov is underdone and underplayed. I think he struggles with Cressey, and loses a close 3 setter. Cressey have a breakout year, playing well.

Watching the woman's match between Svitolina and Martincova. Blowing nicely  which levels the paying field, and a strange court, with tree shadows (not great for a pro event), makes it tricky to see the ball when it comes in/out of the shadow.  Think you will see a few surprises in that wind.

Edited by neilovan
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Etcheverry-Londero - 1 @2.40 Unibet

Clay in Santiago is very fast, almost like no clay. Etcheverry almost 2m will get many cheap points due the specification of surface. He lost two lasts matches but had pretty tought opponets. For me overrall Tomas Martin is better tennis player, has more attributes, he is still growing his game. I think today he gonna win mostly due the very fast clay which strengthens his best weapons (Serve +FH)

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18 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Some days the pickings look a little slim. It's almost better to throttle back, and not risk too much. Whatever you don't lose is money you don't need to make back.

I would be quite surprised to see Goffin get past Daniel today. Goffin just looks like 1/2 the player he was, and injuries in tennis are brutal. They take a long time to recover. They also lead to compensation injuries. ie You have a left knee injury, and you land up getting right hip pain etc.  I think the 8/10 on Daniel is reasonable.

My surprise for the day is Musetti to beat Djokovic. Musetti definitely has the game to do this. Playing well, looking physically strong. That looping deep ball, that he used against Djoko at the French a few years ago, gave DJoko a lot of problems. I think he takes a set at least, but am going small bet for the outright win.

For me Grigor Dimitrov is underdone and underplayed. I think he struggles with Cressey, and loses a close 3 setter. Cressey have a breakout year, playing well.

Watching the woman's match between Svitolina and Martincova. Blowing nicely  which levels the paying field, and a strange court, with tree shadows (not great for a pro event), makes it tricky to see the ball when it comes in/out of the shadow.  Think you will see a few surprises in that wind.

Interesting thoughts about the Djokovic match @neilovan

I'm going completely the other way though. I think Djokovic wins and wins dominantly. Sometimes motivation can be an issue with the top players which can lead to sloppy performances and shock losses, but in this case I expect Djokovic to be completely focussed. He needs a big week if he's going to remain number one, plus he's bound to be frustrated with what happened in Australia and will want to move on quickly.

To do that he needs to at least beat Musetti, otherwise there'll be questions about whether the AO situation is still lingering and if it might have a longer-term impact on his performances. The conditions should improve Musetti's chances, but he has no form to speak of since he blew a big lead against Djokovic at the French. Even if he gets into a good position in the match, that's sure to play on his mind and so I don't think he wins this match no matter what way it develops.

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42 minutes ago, Torque said:

Interesting thoughts about the Djokovic match @neilovan

I'm going completely the other way though. I think Djokovic wins and wins dominantly. Sometimes motivation can be an issue with the top players which can lead to sloppy performances and shock losses, but in this case I expect Djokovic to be completely focussed. He needs a big week if he's going to remain number one, plus he's bound to be frustrated with what happened in Australia and will want to move on quickly.

To do that he needs to at least beat Musetti, otherwise there'll be questions about whether the AO situation is still lingering and if it might have a longer-term impact on his performances. The conditions should improve Musetti's chances, but he has no form to speak of since he blew a big lead against Djokovic at the French. Even if he gets into a good position in the match, that's sure to play on his mind and so I don't think he wins this match no matter what way it develops.

Maybe my bet is half motivated by my dislike for Djoko ?

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16 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Having an itch to back Kvitova to take revenge over Begu but an internal voice whispers to stay away from it.... What do you think guys?

 

They say...

521305343_Screenshot2022-02-21at16_57_27.thumb.png.2f6b4af2e6c00bebb567181e39a545ce.png

I think Kvitova is over her January slump and actually wins here easily. Her game is set up by a strong serve, which is now working. It let's her play 1st strike tennis behind the serve which is difficult to play against. Also, when her serve is working so well, she get's confidence to attack the opponents serve (which really becomes a no pressure shot to nothing), as she knows she is winning her own serve easily. So it is a double whammy against her opponent.

Edited by neilovan
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Ok, Kvitova did her job. Begu did not even tried to battle.

Now, thinking about Muguruza ± @1.45. She felt good in the last couple of years in Doha. Reached final in 2021, quarters in 2020. With a H2H 4:0 for Muguruza, I'd expect her make it 5:0.

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4 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Ok, Kvitova did her job. Begu did not even tried to battle.

Now, thinking about Muguruza ± @1.45. She felt good in the last couple of years in Doha. Reached final in 2021, quarters in 2020. With a H2H 4:0 for Muguruza, I'd expect her make it 5:0.

I would be a little scared of this one, as Cirstea has been on a terrific run. If it is still windy, it will make it close. Cirstea playing her best tennis at the moment.

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Renzo Olivo (+1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Tabilo at 2.44 with Pinnacle

Happy to play this at these odds after watching Olivo in the qualifiers. He still has a reasonable game, just hasn't been able to apply it consistently over the years. Tabilo is coming into this in no form whatsoever and looks vulnerable.

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Watched the Garcia v Halep match yesterday, and it's the best I have seen Garcia play in years. She looked like the world #4 she used to be. Moved well, served great, hit the ball in the corners ... showed no nerves when serving for the match. She outplayed Halep at her own game, though for me Halep's coaches and tacticians should be ashamed. She hits every ball down the middle of the court. It is ridiculous, passive, backfoot tennis, which becomes reactive. Serena dominated the woman's game with proactive, front foot tennis, aggressive tactics. Halep did not manage a break of serve in the match, which is really unusual. If Garcia can repeat the dose again today, she has a very good chance of beating Gauff.

I think the Pegula v Juvan match will be close. No way Pegula should be as low as 1.33 against someone who just beat Sabalenka. Juvan an up and coming star, won two qualifiers and then had a comfortable win over Stefanie Vogele in her first main draw match. Obviously ready for the conditions.

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9 minutes ago, Simeon Borisof said:

There is more than that - the way you put it, it sounds very heroic of him. The fact is that Kozlov was ,,firing'' with 140-150 km/h his first serve and below 100 his second. Dimitrov managed to break his serve 2 times and had 60+ unforced errors. When the result was 6:7 , 3:5 Kozlov was serving with 60-70 km\h and Dimitrov hardly succeeded to reach 7:5. Kozlov literally fell off his legs a 3 times and didnt even move around. Despite that Dimitrov was just passing him the ball and waitning for him to make a mistake? In 3rd set the Bulgarian started the same way. I suspect that the fact that if Kozlov had retired the bets would be void, so Dimitrov gave him time to recover in order to be is shape just to finish the game and he will do the rest firing unforced errors. It is almost sure that if he could, Kozlov would have beaten him in a handicap chair just to be able to finish in 3 sets.

Kozlov was actually practicing with Nadal. They were playing a set, when Nadal took a break and Kozlov checked his phone. He had to rush on to the match with Dimitrov, which was not ideal.

At 5-3 when Kozlov broke him, Kozlov got cramp in both thighs. Could barely move. Dimitrov actually played well to take the set 7-5.

But by the 3rd game of the 3rd set, Kozlov had recovered pretty well. The 2+ minute break between the 2nd and 3rd sets helped him. Also when someone is in that state, they go for broke and start hitting winners from everywhere. It is very odd for the opponent, because there is a natural mental letdown (like playing against 9 men in football, you think you have won or will win). 

But by the 5th game of the 3rd set Kozlov was at about 70% fitness, which is still a tough opponent. It is also hard to hit somebody off the court when it's at sea level and the court is slow, and you have already played 2 really tough sets in 90% humidity.

Edited by neilovan
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6 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Kozlov was actually practicing with Nadal. They were playing a set, when Nadal took a break and Kozlov checked his phone. He had to rush on to the match with Dimitrov, which was not ideal.

At 5-3 when Kozlov broke him, Kozlov got cramp in both thighs. Could barely move. Dimitrov actually played well to take the set 7-5.

But by the 3rd game of the 3rd set, Kozlov had recovered pretty well. The 2+ minute break between the 2nd and 3rd sets helped him. Also when someone is in that state, they go for broke and start hitting winners from everywhere. It is very odd for the opponent, because there is a natural mental letdown (like playing against 9 men in football, you think you have won or will win). 

But by the 5th game of the 3rd set Kozlov was at about 70% fitness, which is still a tough opponent. It is also hard to hit somebody off the court when it's at sea level and the court is slow, and you have already played 2 really tough sets in 90% humidity.

What are you saying? That Dimitrov was the one in difficult position and you complete understand his behaviour there?

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All he need to do drop shotting him or move him to the sides instead he choose backhand slicing him and slicing too long making stupid errors ,but hes been idiot for years now.  He let him recover a bit and back to the match late i the 3rd i don't think its something criminal here he just an idiot and he's tennis  going downhill he is fade material for sure  .

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You realize that if the ethical commission investigates the game, Dimitrov would be convincing them that ,,yes, i am that idiot who was just passing the one legged guy the ball, not making him moving around and just waiting  for him to make mistakes on his own, while i was the one acutally making them, and there wasn't anything criminal here i am just like that for years''...

Edited by Simeon Borisof
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1 hour ago, Simeon Borisof said:

You realize that if the ethical commission investigates the game, Dimitrov would be convincing them that ,,yes, i am that idiot who was just passing the one legged guy the ball, not making him moving around and just waiting  for him to make mistakes on his own, while i was the one acutally making them, and there wasn't anything criminal here i am just like that for years''...

It's frustrating when a match goes like that @Simeon Borisof but the reality is very little can be done. Even if suspicious betting patterns are found that's not usually enough unless actual proof of something untoward exists. If there are no suspicious betting patterns then the only way Dimitrov can be sanctioned is for lack of effort, but even then I've seen matches where it couldn't really be any more obvious to me that a player isn't trying and yet nothing happens afterwards - not to mention that effort can be a subjective thing that is hard to quantify.

Dimitrov has form for matches like this as well I'm afraid. A few years ago he played Kevin King - ranked in the 400's if I recall correctly - in one of the tournaments ahead of the US Open where he beat Federer, and he lost in straight sets. I happened to be watching and the amount of unforced errors was like nothing I've ever seen before or since. In that match and also the one he's just played, I'm sure he would say he's trying but he's just not playing well. In the case of last night most likely that explanation would be accepted because he hasn't been playing well recently.

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2 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

What are you saying? That Dimitrov was the one in difficult position and you complete understand his behaviour there?

No, but it's not as easy as you suggest. Even though the guy is cramping you still have to beat him, and it's not easy. Its as hot as hell, you are tired, and the guy is swinging for the fences. It is not straight forward.

Edited by neilovan
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2 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

You realize that if the ethical commission investigates the game, Dimitrov would be convincing them that ,,yes, i am that idiot who was just passing the one legged guy the ball, not making him moving around and just waiting  for him to make mistakes on his own, while i was the one acutally making them, and there wasn't anything criminal here i am just like that for years''...

It's pretty obvious that you had a big bet on Dimitrov, but the reality is that he probably loses in straight sets if Kozlov doesn't cramp.

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1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Lol what's happening with Ivashka and Lloyd Harris ?

Harris already set his stall out at the Aussie open when he showed up to play, not having played a warm up match. Simply ridiculous to waste an opportunity with no preparation, but you don't know what is going on behind the scenes. A family member could be ill, a pet dies,  stuff happens that can have devastating consequences.

I think some of the going's on at these tournaments are simply ridiculous. How on earth can you have a tennis match that starts at 1.20am and finishes at 4.50am ? These are world class athletes, putting in serious taxi, hotel, travel miles and they are treated like sheep. How do you train for a match that starts at 1am?

Zverev v Brooksby makes a farce of the ATP and it is simply unacceptable! 

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6 hours ago, neilovan said:

Watched the Garcia v Halep match yesterday, and it's the best I have seen Garcia play in years. She looked like the world #4 she used to be. Moved well, served great, hit the ball in the corners ... showed no nerves when serving for the match. She outplayed Halep at her own game, though for me Halep's coaches and tacticians should be ashamed. She hits every ball down the middle of the court. It is ridiculous, passive, backfoot tennis, which becomes reactive. Serena dominated the woman's game with proactive, front foot tennis, aggressive tactics. Halep did not manage a break of serve in the match, which is really unusual. If Garcia can repeat the dose again today, she has a very good chance of beating Gauff.

I think the Pegula v Juvan match will be close. No way Pegula should be as low as 1.33 against someone who just beat Sabalenka. Juvan an up and coming star, won two qualifiers and then had a comfortable win over Stefanie Vogele in her first main draw match. Obviously ready for the conditions.

Was Garcia injured?

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