Tennis Tips - February 21 - February 27

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Peter Gojowczyk (+6) to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Zverev should've been defeated by Brooksby and, while I don't think he'll come close to a loss again against Gojowczyk, these 6 games lines tend to be hard to cover in two set matches. Gojowczyk was firing well in his first match, breaking a really bad streak of losses - and he has nothing to lose here. Every chance of a decent match here imo.

[neilovan]

I have 1 main bet today. It is three legs but returns 2.4 to 1. 

First match is Konteveit v Mertens.  For me this is actually a no-contest. Konteveit probably the hottest player in woman's tennis at the moment. Hitting the ball with power and purpose. A price here of 1.4 is a gift, because she should be about 1.2 . Mertens not playing particularly well, and just got over the line against Paolini (who served for the match in the 3rd set).

Second match is Djokovic v Khachanov. Djoko looks sharp, and it is a perfect style matchup for him. Would be taking Djoko on the -4.5 handicap at 1.72. Just can't see him losing his serve, and the game styles are very similar. Djoko just does things on the court at a higher level.

Third match is Sabalenka v Tiechmann. Again for me a no contest. I don't even care how bad Sabalenka serves ... she has too much power off the ground, and she is hitting it really well. I watched her match against Kostyk, and I think this one is similar. Quite a few serve breaks but Tiechmann gets overpowered here.

Could take the same bet but instead take Sabalenka -3.5 (also at 1.72). The odds for Konteveit, Djoko (-4.5), Sabalenka (-3,5) work out around (1.4*1.72*1.72)-1 = 3.14. Slightly riskier and not worth it in my opinion.

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by neilovan
added sabalenka -3.5

[CzechPunter]

Well, seems like my bet will be void!

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60490225

[neilovan]

22 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, seems like my bet will be void!

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60490225

LOL, he should play doubles with Djokovic

[888888]

Pegula - Sakkari , any reason for Pegula to be underdog at 2.40 ?

They played exactly 1 month ago on the 23rd of january and Pegula won 7-6(7-0) 6-3.

[four-leaf]

I'm on Karen Khachanov today. Nole hasn't played a match in ages and it's over 5 times the stake on russias third best player (not counting Aslan). Karen beat Nole in the olympics so I'm on it.

Edit: My bad, not in the olympics but in the 2018 Paris masters final by 7-5 6-4.

Edited February 23, 2022 by four-leaf

[vvararu]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

I'm on Karen Khachanov today. Nole hasn't played a match in ages and it's over 5 times the stake on russias third best player (not counting Aslan). Karen beat Nole in the olympics so I'm on it.

Edit: My bad, not in the olympics but in the 2018 Paris masters final by 7-5 6-4.

It's nice to emphasize "russias third best player" but don't forget to emphasize "world's first best player" also, who happens to be very hungry now.    Just joking... good luck with your pick.

[vvararu]

2 hours ago, 888888 said:

Pegula - Sakkari , any reason for Pegula to be underdog at 2.40 ?

They played exactly 1 month ago on the 23rd of january and Pegula won 7-6(7-0) 6-3.

Most probably that's because since then, Pegula won 3 games out of 5 and Sakkari 5 out of 6. Better conversion rate  

In my opinion the match is closer than odds suggest.

[vvararu]

Rather than going with Djoker, who has no much game experience this year, over Kachanov, I'd rather go with Bautista-Agut over Vesely. Spaniard seems to enjoy middle-east tournaments and the odds are slightly higher than on Djokovic.

The only thing that I doubt is how "slighly overweitgh" Vesely won Cilic...  However, the difference between Vesely and Bautista-Agut is too big currently.

[Torque]

6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, seems like my bet will be void!

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60490225

Completely unacceptable. Sadly the latest demonstration of what seems to be the psychopathy of elite performers in sport. I guess it's no major surprise though - it's long been observed that those kind of personality traits exist in the business world also.

[Torque]

In happier news, a red-letter day for Sabalenka. No double-faults in a blowout win over Teichmann. It's nice to see when a player is able to come through a period of adversity and she deserves a lot of credit for persevering and confronting her serving blues head-on.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Torque

[vvararu]

Interesting fact. Vesely has won Djokovic once in 2016  Don't think he holds any chance today but... I thought the same of him playing against Cilic and Bautista-Agut.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, I'm sure the memories will be there! I honestly don't know how he's won those matches, I didn't bet or even watch anything from that. Madness, we'll see what happens today!

[neilovan]

So Djokovic manages to stick me out by not covering the -4.5 spread yesterday. SLightly irritating as he was serving 4-3 up and a set (6-3)  up.   The other two selections Konteveit and Sabalenka cruised through, but Konteveit losing a second set 6-0 is an eye opener. Seriously, what is that nonsense!

WTA DOHA

The only match where I really like the favorite is Sabalenka v Swiatek. For me Sabalenka just has too much power. That match against Kostyk sticks in my mind. Served badly, hit the groundstrokes exceptionally well. I think Swiatek gets overpowered, very similar to Tiechmann yesterday.

For me nothing between Gauff or Sakkari, and similar in the other  match Muguruza and Ostapenko (who's been on a heater).

If Konteveit doesn't go to sleep, she has way too much power for Jabeur.  Just playing too well, with ferocious ground strokes. I think you see at least 1 blow out set in this match, and happy to go Konteveit -3.5 handicap at 1.9

Going 1 small bet quad on Konteveit, Sabalenka, Ostapenko and Gauff  (1.9 * 1.72 * 2.1 * 2.37) which is around 15.25 to 1

Actually gonna go full out and add Nadal  onto the Quad ? That Acapulco court is slow, and Nadal is the king of slow.  Takes it up to 17.5 to 1 for a 5 legged bet

Edited February 24, 2022 by neilovan
gotta add in Nadal

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, I'm sure the memories will be there! I honestly don't know how he's won those matches, I didn't bet or even watch anything from that. Madness, we'll see what happens today!

I watched the Vesely v Cilic match, and Vesely served really well. Absolutely hitting the eyes outta it on the serve. Cilic couldn't get near it. Don't want to body shame, but Vesely looks really out of shape (for a pro). Carrying at least 7 kgs of excess mass.

[vvararu]

54 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I watched the Vesely v Cilic match, and Vesely served really well. Absolutely hitting the eyes outta it on the serve. Cilic couldn't get near it. Don't want to body shame, but Vesely looks really out of shape (for a pro). Carrying at least 7 kgs of excess mass.

Well... everybody knows how good is beer and sausages in Czech Republic :))))

[Torque]

Encouraged by her performance yesterday and also bearing in mind that she can power through any player, I'm going to back Sabalenka to go all the way and take the title in Doha. You'd favour her to beat Swiatek on a hard court and then after that it's Gauff or Sakkari. Both are good players but I don't see them beating Sabalenka if she continues to play well and keep her serve in check. The main dangers are on the other side of the draw in the shape of Kontaveit and Ostapenko who's on fire right now plus Jabeur and Garbine who aren't exactly slouches. I'm not convinced Sabalenka would win the final, but I do think she gets there and if that happens then I'll have a nice price for her to win the match. I'm also backing Tabilo to beat Garin in Santiago. Garin isn't fit and he's said as much and he was very poor last week in his loss to Coria, whilst Tabilo had a nice run recently in Cordoba.

 

15pts Sabalenka to win WTA Doha @ 6.50 Boyles

35pts Tabilo to beat Garin @ 1.80 365

[lelit]

Your belief in a Sabalenka is impressive, but I think she may have a lot of trouble this evening. Yesterday Swiatek was extremely impressive, too.

[Torque]

57 minutes ago, lelit said:

Your belief in a Sabalenka is impressive, but I think she may have a lot of trouble this evening. Yesterday Swiatek was extremely impressive, too.

She might do you're right. And if her serving troubles return she'll probably lose, but if she serves cleanly and continues to be aggressive then I think she dictates the match. Swiatek just isn't as strong on hard as she is on clay.

[CzechPunter]

Well, look at Vesely!

[vvararu]

Congrats for your countryman!

Look at Djokovic also. He is not more N1 starting Monday, giving up his position to Medvedev.

[Torque]

32 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, look at Vesely!

He played really well no question. Had help though from Djokovic at key moments - first in the first set when Djokovic served a double-fault to get broken and then a repeat of that trick in the second set breaker which gave Vesely the chance to serve it out.

At times tennis results can be quite hilarious. How Vesely can drop a set to someone I've never heard of in qualifying and then beat one of the best players ever without even dropping a set I'll never know.

[Torque]

23 hours ago, Torque said:

15pts Sabalenka to win WTA Doha @ 6.50 Boyles

35pts Tabilo to beat Garin @ 1.80 365

Sabalenka soundly beaten so no complaints there. It's probably time to start taking Swiatek much more seriously on hard against other top players. Tabilo was an easy winner after a slow start - Garin really should consider sorting his injury issues out as trying to play through it is clearly doing him no favours.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, good call on Tabilo there! Ridiculous re Djokovic, that's the kind of a result that boggles one's mind.

[Teodore]

Today is end od the party for Vesely ? What do you think guys ?

[Torque]

2 hours ago, U.K. TennisGirl said:

I gave up on betting after the Australian Open men’s final, between Medvedev and Nadal.

However, for anyone who is still betting, the odds on Medvedev to beat Nadal today/tomorrow are a gift once again. A far superior player to Nadal - and far superior to almost everyone else - on a hardcourt, regardless of the bizarre events of four weeks ago. Lump on, and if you’re feeling brave, take Medvedev 2-0, but probably err on the side of caution, as the odds for the match win are good enough on their own.

Based on the 2nd set last night, it's hard to disagree with that assessment.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, Teodore said:

Today is end od the party for Vesely ? What do you think guys ?

It's so often the way that after a big win comes a loss in a much more winnable match. Today will probably be no different.

[Torque]

6 hours ago, Torque said:

It's so often the way that after a big win comes a loss in a much more winnable match. Today will probably be no different.

Should have been the end for Vesely but Shapo choked. His name must be on the trophy because he's had some amount of luck in this tournament. Of course you have to play well to profit from luck and he's certainly done that.

[CzechPunter]

So nobody fancies Rublev? ?