Tennis Tips - February 21 - February 27

[neilovan]

Definitely think there is value in betting on the WTA qualifiers for Lyon today. It's a simple theory, but the lower the quality of the contestants, and the shorter the contest, the more unpredictable the outcomes. So a qualification tournament will throw up some surprises.

Blinkova plays Korpatsch, and is a huge fav (1.16 to 5.0). I expect this to be a close match, considering Korpatsch won a set the last time they played (8th Feb). For me a small bet on the underdog here.  

ANother expected very close match is between Tatjana Maria and Anastasia Gasanova. Really not much to choose between them and a price of 2.75 on Gasanova is reasonable.

Don't expect both upsets, but will take as two small bet singles, and if one wins I'm in the money.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

So nobody fancies Rublev? ?

I do and I don't so I should get off the fence 

On the one hand, how many more lives can Vesely possibly have but then on the other Rublev's second serve is there to be attacked and I expect Vesely to hit it with all he's got. Also, despite a fine record of winning tournaments at this level, Rublev is another player who likes the occasional choke. At the prices, Vesely looks worth backing but I think Rublev wins it, probably in three sets.

[neilovan]

Simply no way I would be betting Rublev today. Vesely is just on an amazing run. Beating Popyrin, Cilic, Bautista Agut, Djokovic and  Shapavalov is amazing! Absolutely no easy matches there. Interestingly he has won 5 out of 7 tie breakers in these matches. So while not doing anything incredible returning, he is bringing it serving. 

Because of the tie breakers I would be taking him +3.5 at odds of 1.71 . I don't think Rublev will dominate his serve, and Vesely could easily win a breaker (considering his record). Even if he loses a breaker, is Rublev capable of breaking him twice in another set? Rublev must win the breaker and the next set 6-3 or better.... Hmm , not for me.

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Simply no way I would be betting Rublev today. Vesely is just on an amazing run. Beating Popyrin, Cilic, Bautista Agut, Djokovic and  Shapavalov is amazing! Absolutely no easy matches there. Interestingly he has won 5 out of 7 tie breakers in these matches. So while not doing anything incredible returning, he is bringing it serving. 

Because of the tie breakers I would be taking him +3.5 at odds of 1.71 . I don't think Rublev will dominate his serve, and Vesely could easily win a breaker (considering his record). Even if he loses a breaker, is Rublev capable of breaking him twice in another set? Rublev must win the breaker and the next set 6-3 or better.... Hmm , not for me.

 

And Vesely has a blowout. Typical.

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, neilovan said:

Definitely think there is value in betting on the WTA qualifiers for Lyon today. It's a simple theory, but the lower the quality of the contestants, and the shorter the contest, the more unpredictable the outcomes. So a qualification tournament will throw up some surprises.

Blinkova plays Korpatsch, and is a huge fav (1.16 to 5.0). I expect this to be a close match, considering Korpatsch won a set the last time they played (8th Feb). For me a small bet on the underdog here.  

ANother expected very close match is between Tatjana Maria and Anastasia Gasanova. Really not much to choose between them and a price of 2.75 on Gasanova is reasonable.

Don't expect both upsets, but will take as two small bet singles, and if one wins I'm in the money.

ANd that's my form. I reckon I have had 10 to 15 retirements by players that were getting spanked. Yet when player is on the end of a hiding, they hang in there and get demolished.