harry_rag Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Pinamonti the only winner from yesterday's 6 bets. 39 winners from 120 bets for a loss of 68.77 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 points on Mane (Senegal) at 3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Winner earlier, 1 from each team in the QPR v Swansea game. 10 points on Austin at 9/4 and 10 on Piroe at 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 from 3 there (Mane) for a small profit. 40 winners from 123 bets for a loss of 64.27 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 points on Diallo (Rangers) at 13/5 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 points on Sporar (Middlesbrough) at 11/5 Uni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 points on Sharp (Sheffield U) at 2.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, harry_rag said: 10 points on Sharp (Sheffield U) at 2.84 9.33 points; not matched on the scraps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 out of 3 today. 43 winners from 126 bets for a profit of 0.6 points. Back in the black, if only by a toenail! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Mildly ironic that this thread should get back to break even at the point I've been looking at the data and thinking of tweaking the formula! It's times like this that I wish I had a better than "enthusiastic amateur" understanding of statistics. @froment and @Torque you've both been kind enough to comment along the way on this idea and I'd appreciate any input on the following thoughts. My current calculation method for true odds (entirely based on the spread prices) seems reasonably accurate in as much as the average odds predict that 346 out of 895 players would score and the actual number is, indeed, 346. To be fair though, the best odds offered by the bookies are similarly predictive at 345. Not surprisingly, taking the average of my true odds and the best bookies price is very much in the same ballpark. Here's my idea - switch from the current method (spread only) to the average method; true price is 50% based on spread and 50% based on best bookies price. Target price remains true +10%. Rationale: 2 relevant sources should provide a more accurate figure than just one It makes no sense to ignore the bookies price, e.g. if I have 3 "true" 6/4 shots but the bookies go evens, 6/4 and 2/1 respectively. It makes sense that it would be more accurate to treat them as (roughly) a 5/4, 6/4 and 7/4 shot. This should make it easier to get matched as there will be less instances where my target price is significantly bigger than the best available, e.g. whereas I'm now trying to get 7/4 when the best price is evens it becomes 6/4. In a nutshell, the 2 approaches have a very similar ROI (current 8.29% v new 8.13%) but the new approach is less dependent on getting matched at a price so much higher than the best available with the bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 points on Grabban (N Forest) to score at 11/5 Lads (Qualifies on current basis but not new as target odds would go from 3.15 to 3.28). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 All I'd say is what I'm sure I've said before - whether it's the old method or a new one, you need a huge sample to validate any conclusions you might wish to draw from any set of results. Broadly speaking, the smaller the edge the bigger the sample needed. Also I'm not convinced a 10 percent return is viable from a system based off of the market odds. If you constantly hit only big market outliers it won't be long before you'll be stopped from hitting those outliers. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 37 minutes ago, Torque said: All I'd say is what I'm sure I've said before - whether it's the old method or a new one, you need a huge sample to validate any conclusions you might wish to draw from any set of results. Broadly speaking, the smaller the edge the bigger the sample needed. Thanks. I'll continue to grow the sample. After all, this isn't data that's readily available elsewhere so I'm only going to get it if I collect it myself. Also worth saying that this isn't something I've started doing from scratch. It's an extension of how I've bet on (and generally done well on) this market over the years. It's good to test some of my assumptions and maybe tweak my selection methods to back a few more winners and a few less losers. 41 minutes ago, Torque said: If you constantly hit only big market outliers it won't be long before you'll be stopped from hitting those outliers. I take your point though I think a lot of the selections are on Betfair at prices that would be available whether I backed them or not so this should be more sustainable than a system that was dependent entirely on exploiting standout bookie prices. I think I'll start backing both ways from Feb onwards and record the bets as A, B and C (old basis/new/both) and see how it goes. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 points on Fabio Viera (Porto) at 9/4 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 0/2 yesterday so back in the red. 43 winners from 128 bets (33.59%) for a profit of -19.39 points. Strike rate currently slightly lagging the overall data sample which is running at 38.86%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 22 hours ago, harry_rag said: 43 winners from 128 bets (33.59%) for a profit of -19.39 points. Strike rate currently slightly lagging the overall data sample which is running at 38.82%. And so the month ends. January saw 22 winners from 61 bets (36.07%) for a profit of 40.82 points. Current ROI to target odds for the overall data sample (917 players) is 9.02% for the original method and 8.85% for the new one. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 points on Mane (Senegal) at 5/2 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 points on Duro (Valencia) at 9/4 Uni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 winners yesterday. 45 winners from 130 bets (34.62%) for a profit of 28.11 points. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 For Sociedad, 10 points each on Oyarzabal at 2.74 and Isak at 2.7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 losers yesterday. 45 winners from 132 bets (34.09%) for a profit of 8.11 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 10 points on Rashford (Man U) at 2.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 each matched for Chelsea and West Ham so far. 10 points on Hudson-Odoi at 3.15 and on Bowen at 2.58. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 10 points each on Richarlison at 41/20 Uni and Toney at 3.45, 10 on De Bruyne at 2.84, Grealish at 3.1 and 1.39 on Gundogan at 2.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 10 points on Martinez (Inter) at 2.82 (would've taken the 2.8 that's still on offer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 Barely worth the mention but also 0.52 points matched on Dzeko at 3.15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 10 points on Dembele (Lyon) at 2/1 Uni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 low price but you usually go for our captain Kane.. he just scored! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, vikki37 said: low price but you usually go for our captain Kane.. he just scored! All about the price, had a request up for my target odds but wasn’t matched. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 6, 2022 Author Share Posted February 6, 2022 10 points on Pasalic (Atalanta) at 9/4 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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