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Anytime Goalscorer System

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14 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Do you think Salah will score tonight, Harry? I got matched at 5.0 on smarkets for him to score first. 

I think he might! :eyes

I could make a case for him being a reasonable bet at evens or better to score anytime. I could also make a case for selling his goal minutes on the spreads at 40. It's possible you could win on both bets!

He's scored in 7 of his last 10 games and scored 1st in 5 of them so you're bet seems reasonable enough.

Obviously he wasn't at the World Cup but he's played the full 90 minutes in the last couple of games so might be due to be subbed. That's not necessarily too much of a negative for backing him but might make selling his goal minutes a bit less nerve wracking!

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14 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

how are you selling goal minutes. ?

On the spreads. He's 40 to sell with SX and 39 with SPIN but I don't bet before the line ups are confirmed.

He's scored in 7 of his last 10 starts. So that's 3 games where he didn't score and you'd have won 40 x your stake.

There were 2 games where he scored early enough for it still to be profitable and 5 where he would have cost you money. Only 2 of those (76 & 82) would've resulted in a loss of more than 11 times stake. Obviously there's always the risk of 3 very late goals for a painful loss!

Overall his goal minutes have averaged 32.1. So backing him at evens and selling him at 40 would've both shown a profit (though his price will obviously have varied from game to game).

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40 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks Harry, I didn’t really know about those firms.   It sounds a little bit too risky for me, it looks as though you could lose quite a bit very quickly.  

It is more volatile thank fixed odds but you can mitigate that by careful staking (where I might go with £1 per point you could go a low as 10p say). I’d put it this way; it’s relatively easy to make a 1000 point profit as long as you’re willing to accept that you could lose over 500 points if you got off to a really bad start. Anything could happen over the first 50 to 100 bets but it’s unlikely that you wouldn’t be up after 400 bets or more.

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Anything could happen over the first 50 to 100 bets but it’s unlikely that you wouldn’t be up after 400 bets or more.

Here's the worst and best returns across various numbers of bets which illustrates that the volatility reduces the bigger the sample size. (Based on 5241 bets on various sports and markets.)

  Worst Best
50 bets -£730.00 £1,142.00
100 bets -£640.00 £1,554.80
200 bets -£272.00 £2,453.40
400 bets £261.00 £3,553.60

It took 151 bets to recover that 730 points and another 150 to turn it into a 1k profit. So, despite the bad luck to start off with that's still 1000 points profit after 351 bets!

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4 losing "B" bets to bring this thread to a conclusion. Final totals looks like this.

181 winners from 561 “A” bets (32.26%) for a loss of 135.61 points
41 winners from 174 “B” bets (23.56%) for a loss of 39.65 points

"A" bets slightly better (-99.53 points) and "B" bets slightly worse (-62.67 points) adjusting for bets placed in error.

New thread incoming focussing on the more profitable bets for 2023 (more profitable so far in practice, hopefully in future as well).

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