harry_rag Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 10 points on Pepe (Nice) at 18/5 with Uni (78B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 10 points on Sharp (Sheffield U) at 15/8 with Fred (81A) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 from 8 "A" bets (Rashford and Castellanos) and 1 from 4 "B" bets (Morris) since the last update. 181 winners from 561 “A” bets (32.26%) for a loss of 135.61 points 41 winners from 170 “B” bets (24.12%) for a profit of 0.35 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Do you think Salah will score tonight, Harry? I got matched at 5.0 on smarkets for him to score first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Do you think Salah will score tonight, Harry? I got matched at 5.0 on smarkets for him to score first. I think he might! I could make a case for him being a reasonable bet at evens or better to score anytime. I could also make a case for selling his goal minutes on the spreads at 40. It's possible you could win on both bets! He's scored in 7 of his last 10 games and scored 1st in 5 of them so you're bet seems reasonable enough. Obviously he wasn't at the World Cup but he's played the full 90 minutes in the last couple of games so might be due to be subbed. That's not necessarily too much of a negative for backing him but might make selling his goal minutes a bit less nerve wracking! alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Thanks Harry, I’ll take my chances, I only put a £5 on him, so it’s not the end of the world. how are you selling goal minutes. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: how are you selling goal minutes. ? On the spreads. He's 40 to sell with SX and 39 with SPIN but I don't bet before the line ups are confirmed. He's scored in 7 of his last 10 starts. So that's 3 games where he didn't score and you'd have won 40 x your stake. There were 2 games where he scored early enough for it still to be profitable and 5 where he would have cost you money. Only 2 of those (76 & 82) would've resulted in a loss of more than 11 times stake. Obviously there's always the risk of 3 very late goals for a painful loss! Overall his goal minutes have averaged 32.1. So backing him at evens and selling him at 40 would've both shown a profit (though his price will obviously have varied from game to game). alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Thanks Harry, I didn’t really know about those firms. It sounds a little bit too risky for me, it looks as though you could lose quite a bit very quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 40 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Thanks Harry, I didn’t really know about those firms. It sounds a little bit too risky for me, it looks as though you could lose quite a bit very quickly. It is more volatile thank fixed odds but you can mitigate that by careful staking (where I might go with £1 per point you could go a low as 10p say). I’d put it this way; it’s relatively easy to make a 1000 point profit as long as you’re willing to accept that you could lose over 500 points if you got off to a really bad start. Anything could happen over the first 50 to 100 bets but it’s unlikely that you wouldn’t be up after 400 bets or more. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Anything could happen over the first 50 to 100 bets but it’s unlikely that you wouldn’t be up after 400 bets or more. Here's the worst and best returns across various numbers of bets which illustrates that the volatility reduces the bigger the sample size. (Based on 5241 bets on various sports and markets.) Worst Best 50 bets -£730.00 £1,142.00 100 bets -£640.00 £1,554.80 200 bets -£272.00 £2,453.40 400 bets £261.00 £3,553.60 It took 151 bets to recover that 730 points and another 150 to turn it into a 1k profit. So, despite the bad luck to start off with that's still 1000 points profit after 351 bets! alexcaruso808 and Torque 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 10 points on Negredo (Cadiz) at 3.6 (62B) 10 points on Larsen (Celta Vigo) at 16/5 with Hills (76B) alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 10 points on Benrahma at 10/3 with 365 (78B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 10 points on Fernandes at 4 (74B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 losing "B" bets to bring this thread to a conclusion. Final totals looks like this. 181 winners from 561 “A” bets (32.26%) for a loss of 135.61 points 41 winners from 174 “B” bets (23.56%) for a loss of 39.65 points "A" bets slightly better (-99.53 points) and "B" bets slightly worse (-62.67 points) adjusting for bets placed in error. New thread incoming focussing on the more profitable bets for 2023 (more profitable so far in practice, hopefully in future as well). vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Wish you a delightful new year full of magical happiness, great health and more winnings to come! alexcaruso808 and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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