harry_rag Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 points on Traore (Burkina Faso) at 3.6 I've decided to switch off the filter for "bookies price > 11/5" which this bet would have previously fallen foul of (shame it's too late to allow Jimenez at 3.5 the other day but them's the breaks)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 And 10 points on Aboubakar (Cameroon) at 2.74 Not a bet in this thread but Lads have tempted me in again by going 6/1 for him to score first; I've had 5 points on that and used a 1 point freebie on him scoring in both halves at 16/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 points each on Leao (AC Milan) at 3.05 and Mertens (Napoli) at 3.4 (23/10 PP acceptable). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 from 4 yesterday (ironically it would've been 2 out 2 if I hadn't switched the filter off). 2 from 6 since the last update. Overall it's 33 winners from 96 bets for a loss of 13.18 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 points on Mane (Senegal) at 31/20 Lads Also had 5 points 1st on him at 6/1 same firm. As per Aboubakar yesterday, I think it's a big enough boost to make it a value bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 points on Muriqi (Lazio) at 3.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 points on Andersson (Koln) at 19/10 Betway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 points on Iglesias (Betis) at 9/5 Lads and 10 points on A Ayew at 8/5 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 points on Burgstaller (St Pauli) at 3/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 points on Morata (Juventus) at 2.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 winners from 7 yesterday (Iglesias and Morata). Overall it's 35 winners from 103 bets for a loss of 33.22 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Quick update on the overall data sample. 338 players out of 864 have scored for a return to my "fair" odds of -0.09 points with an ROI of -0.01%. Backing at my target "back" odds (fair +10%) the return is +86.19 points with an ROI of 9.98%. That seems to suggest a reasonable degree of accuracy for the pricing method. Laying at the target "lay" odds would've returned +75.69 points with an ROI of 6.58% but I've long since discounted that approach given how hard it is to actually get matched. Backing at the best bookies odds is -4.17 points with an ROI of -0.48% (suggesting no mileage in a strategy of laying at best price). Selling player goal minutes would've returned +3105 points while buying would've been -4455 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 points on Defrel (Sassuolo) at 3.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 points each on Kane at 2.28 and Ronaldo at 2,4 in the Prem games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Ronaldo at 2,4 Hills going 2/1 to a tenner if you're quick. I'll stick to the 2.4 for recording purposes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Hills going 2/1 to a tenner if you're quick. I'll stick to the 2.4 for recording purposes. Sod that, the 2/1 is still on offer and the 2.4 is easy to lay back so I'm recording it at the 2/1 that I'm on at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Kane the only winner from yesterday's 3 bets. 36 winners from 106 bets for a loss of 40.68 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 points on Jovic (R Madrid) at 2.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 points on Jaziri (Tunisia) at 3.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 losers yesterday. 36 winners from 108 bets for a loss of 60.68 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 points on Borre (E Frankfurt) at 11/5 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 points on Iglesias (R Betis) at 3.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 points on Simeone (Verona) at 2.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 10 points on Modeste (Koln) at 21/10 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 10 points on Sterling at 2.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 10 points on Luis Suarez at 2.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 winners from 6 since the last update (Iglesias and Modeste) for a small profit as both were better than 2/1. 38 winners from 114 bets for a loss of 53.71 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 points on Firmino (Liverpool) at 3.25, Maupay (Brighton) at 3.25, Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.38 and 9.06 on Martinelli (Arsenal) at 2.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 Barely worth it but matched for 1.48 points on Jota at 2.68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 points on Pinamonti (Empoli) at 3.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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