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Anytime Goalscorer System

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53 minutes ago, Torque said:

0-0's are always the enemy of goalscorer bets, obviously. Maybe you could find a way to try to filter out games with a higher chance of no goals - or maybe it won't make any difference as those games have the higher chance of no goals factored into the goalscorer odds.

With hindsight it's a shame I didn't record the total goals expectation for each game as I could have done some analysis then. I suspect you're right though, my understanding is that most of the big firms use the same service to set their odds and (to simplify it quite a bit) they'd establish what % of his team's goals a player scores and apply that to the goals expectation for a game.

I should perhaps take a closer look at profitability by price though (e.g. it might suggest raising the minimum I back at). 

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0 from 7 since the last update (Polter was void as the game was abandoned).

82 winners from 253 bets (32.41%) for a loss of 113.87 points.

14 potential bets in that time (as opposed to 7 I got matched on) with 3 scoring. So a lower than average strike rate overall and (perhaps) a bit of bad luck with who I did and didn't get matched on. Might be time to get my head back under the bonnet though nothing that 5 or 6 consecutive winners wouldn't fix! :)

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23 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

10 points on Iheanacho at 3.5

Scratch that; not a qualifier (I anticipated SX's price before it was up and it's a point too low for this to be a potential selection). I'm on it anyway and still feel it's an good price but not a bet for the purposes of this thread.

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Been looking at the data (1201 players in the sample now) and making a change to the base number used for calculating true odds. Using the spreads midpoint the fair odds are running at -33.64 points with an ROI of -2.78% and the target back odds are running at +83.79 points with an ROI of 6.93%.

I'm going to switch to using the sell price as I believe that is a more accurate number (not least based on my experience as a seller in this and other markets). The return to fair odds would be -3.84 points with an ROI of -0.32% and, to target odds, +93.23 points with an ROI of 7.76%.

I'm sticking with the approach I adopted of factoring the fixed odds price into the the target odds and there will now be just a single target price rather than, as has their has been for a while, 2 where I aim for the higher one but will accept the lower.

Evolution rather than revolution but it's a logical change and simplifies the recording of and execution of the bets. Whether it makes much change to the bottom line remains to be seen!

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