harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 10 points each on Mahrez (Man C) at 29/20 Lads and Pinamonti (Empoli) at 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 10 points on Mane (Liverpool) at 3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Mahrez the only scorer yesterday for a 5.5 point loss. 9 winners from 43 bets and -170.1 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 10 points on Mitrovic (Fulham) at 1.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Loser yesterday, 10 points on Dia (Villarreal) at 3.55. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Dia in. One matched in the later games so far. 10 points on Balogun (Arsenal) at 3.19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Dia the only scorer from the last 3 bets for a for a 4.99 point profit. 10 winners from 46 bets and -165.11 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 in Sassuolo v Bologna: 10 points each on Beradi at 3.05, Scamacca at 3.3 and Arnautovic at 3.05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Struck out there. 10 points on Simeone (Verona) at 3.11 and 10 on Suarez (A Madrid) at 2.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 10 point on Mertens at 6/4 PP, 10 on Firmino (Liverpool) at 2.98, 10 on Kane (Spurs) at 2.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Last one, 10 points on Benzema (R Madrid) at 2.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Benzema the only scorer from 9 attempts yesterday for a 52.56 point loss. 11 winners from 55 bets and -217.67 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, harry_rag said: 11 winners from 55 bets and -217.67 points. Obviously pretty poor. For context, I've captured data for 175 potential bets since this thread began. 12 were ruled out by the "bookies price >3.2" filter (6.86%) leaving 163 qualifying selections of which I've been matched on 55 (33.74%). Had you backed all 175 selections at the target back odds you'd be 1.45 points up (you'd have got better with the bookies in some cases). 4 of the 12 players who were ruled out by the >3.2 filter scored and would've shown a 2.9 point profit at the available price (the last being Minamino for LIverpool who scored at 3/1 last night). Across the whole sample, the fair odds seem pretty accurate (positive ROI of 0.06%) and the target back odds are showing an ROI of 10.05%. I suspect that there's a degree of bad luck in the results so far (getting matched on more losers and missing out on more players who scored than will be the case with a bigger sample size) but that the results will never be as good as the 10% ROI returned by the overall sample (as the market is efficient enough not to offer that big an edge). Will reassess at year end but inclined to try and make it to 100 matched bets. My overall data sample is 723 players now so might as well get that up to 1000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 10 points on Abada (Celtic) at 11/5 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 26 minutes ago, harry_rag said: 10 points on Abada (Celtic) at 11/5 PP In before 10 minutes. Just as well his price wasn't any bigger or the filter would have ruled him out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 A few in the 3:00 games. 10 points each on: Sporar (Middlesborough) at 3.258 with Uni (boosted), Son (Spurs) at 3.1, Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.62, Gundogan (Man C) at 3.08 and De Bruyne (Man C) at 2.72 vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 6 points on Maupay (Brighton) at 3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 7 out of 7 today, that should reduce the deficit slightly! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 That would have made for some acca @harry_rag harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 7 out of 7 yesterday, a welcome dollop of good fortune for this thread. 66 points returned 178.28 for a 112.28 point profit. 18 winners from 62 bets and -105.39 points. I'd have needed 4, maybe 5, more of the bets to have won to be in the black so, despite the still disappointing P/L, not a disastrous position to be in after this many bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 QPR v Southampton: 8.8 points on Solanke (Bournemouth) to score at 15/8 PP It's coming to something when a "bookmaker" won't lay me ten points at those odds. Can't get acceptable price anywhere else so it is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 10 points on Edouard (C Palace) at 3.3 Decent price as would have taken 2.96. Likely to be only match in the 3:00 prem games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 10 points on Lukaku (Chelsea) at 2.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 10 points on Jesus (Man C) at 2.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 out of 4 since the last update with Jesus ending a 10 bet winning run. 21 winners from 66 bets and -61.85 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 10 points on Cavani (Man U) at 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 NOT a bet for this thread but I've had 10 points on Toney at 3.4. It falls foul of the >11/5 filter but I fancy it regardless. I'll review that filter when I get to either 100 bets (currently 67) or 1000 in my data sample (currently 756). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Alaves v Sociedad: 10 points on Isak at 2.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 losers since the last update. 21 winners from 68 bets and -81.85 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 1:46 PM, harry_rag said: NOT a bet for this thread but I've had 10 points on Toney at 3.4. It falls foul of the >11/5 filter but I fancy it regardless. Same applies to Akhomach for Barcelona; 10 points at 3.783 wit Uni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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