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Anytime Goalscorer System

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21 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

11 winners from 55 bets and -217.67 points.

Obviously pretty poor. For context, I've captured data for 175 potential bets since this thread began. 12 were ruled out by the "bookies price >3.2" filter (6.86%) leaving 163 qualifying selections of which I've been matched on 55 (33.74%).

Had you backed all 175 selections at the target back odds you'd be 1.45 points up (you'd have got better with the bookies in some cases). 4 of the 12 players who were ruled out by the >3.2 filter scored and would've shown a 2.9 point profit at the available price (the last being Minamino for LIverpool who scored at 3/1 last night). 

Across the whole sample, the fair odds seem pretty accurate (positive ROI of 0.06%) and the target back odds are showing an ROI of 10.05%. I suspect that there's a degree of bad luck in the results so far (getting matched on more losers and missing out on more players who scored than will be the case with a bigger sample size) but that the results will never be as good as the 10% ROI returned by the overall sample (as the market is efficient enough not to offer that big an edge). 

Will reassess at year end but inclined to try and make it to 100 matched bets. My overall data sample is 723 players now so might as well get that up to 1000.

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7 out of 7 yesterday, a welcome dollop of good fortune for this thread. 66 points returned 178.28 for a 112.28 point profit.

18 winners from 62 bets and -105.39 points.

I'd have needed 4, maybe 5, more of the bets to have won to be in the black so, despite the still disappointing P/L, not a disastrous position to be in after this many bets.

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