Racing Chat - Thursday 14th October

[Hotspur88]

P/L = +51.45pts

1300 Tramore Young Fitzy 6/1 1pt win & She Is A Contender 15/2 1pt win

1445 Brighton Botanist 11/8 4pt win

1622 Tramore Sea Prince 20/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

1720 Carlisle Limerick Leader 5/2 2pt win

9pts staked.

 

Edited October 14, 2021 by Hotspur88
Botanist added.

[MCLARKE]

Where do you get these prices, best I can see is 7/2 for Young Fitzy and 6/1 for She Is A Contender, 9/1 Sea Prince, 2/1 Limerick Leader?

[Wildgarden]

18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Where do you get these prices, best I can see is 7/2 for Young Fitzy and 6/1 for She Is A Contender, 9/1 Sea Prince, 2/1 Limerick Leader?

sea prince especially looks dubious. hotspur - best put prices when posting otherwise how can others possibly follow even people with notification cant get ur price.

[alexcaruso808]

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

sea prince especially looks dubious. hotspur - best put prices when posting otherwise how can others possibly follow even people with notification cant get ur price.

I can see Sea Prince at 20/1 with Bet365 at 5.30 but by 6.59 it was down to 10/1.

[Hotspur88]

With all due respect, I am a full time teacher with two children. I place my bets and then I put the selections up on here when I get a chance. I will now post my bet slips to show the prices I got so that you can see it isn't fabricated....

[Hotspur88]

I will try my best to post the selections as close to when I place them but that isn't always possible as it's usually one of the busiest parts of the day for me.

I will aim to get them up on here as close to when I place them as possible but the prices I put up will be what I got otherwise my bank won't reflect my P/L. 

Quite often with my horses, they have drifted out so this hasn't been a problem. It's just so far tomorrow, all four have been backed to some degree. 

I try to be as transparent as possible and you can see the prices I got in the pictures above. I don't really know what else I can say to be honest. Family and Work come first and then I get my selections up on here afterwards. I'll say it again, I'll try and get them up on here ASAP, but this isn't always possible.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Hotspur88

[MCLARKE]

I don't doubt that you get these prices so there is no need to post the bet slips as evidence, I do believe you.

The problem is that if people follow you on here then they will not be able to obtain the prices that you quote and therefore not achieve the gains that you make. This is the problem with the few good tipping services out there, it is very difficult to get on at the quoted prices.

I think most contributors to the forum quote the prices available when they post.

 

[Hotspur88]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I don't doubt that you get these prices so there is no need to post the bet slips as evidence, I do believe you.

The problem is that if people follow you on here then they will not be able to obtain the prices that you quote and therefore not achieve the gains that you make. This is the problem with the few good tipping services out there, it is very difficult to get on at the quoted prices.

I think most contributors to the forum quote the prices available when they post.

 

Ok then maybe it's best I don't post the selections on the site anymore. Not because I'm throwing my toys out of the pram, but because my P/L won't be accurate and someone else may choose to follow and their P/L will read very differently.

Today for example I had an 18/1 winner with 1pt e/w to return 24.5pts. However within around an hour, the price was more along the lines of 10/1 which would return 14pts. The issue then is that there is 10.5pts less for someone else on just one of the horses. The P/L then would probably look nothing like my P/L which I can tell you is 100% accurate.

The only thing I can try to do is pass them on here as close to placing them as possible but because of life, that isn't always possible. 

I'm not too sure what I'll do from here on out as I can't guarantee that I can get them up with the prices I get and I don't want people getting frustrated when I have say a 6/1 winner and they get a 5/2 winner on the same horse.

[MCLARKE]

I appreciate that it is not always possible to post on the forum close to when the bet is made.

Perhaps just post when you find the time to do so close after the bet has been placed.

I think people will prefer 1 or 2 selections a day where they can obtain the odds rather than 10 selections where the odds are no longer avaiable.

[fd1972uk]

My lot for.today, only small. Bets. 

 

[Timusher]

To be honest I enjoy your tips, and know that prices vary, so no issue to me and most people that have been taking tips for a long time know that.

Just do them when you have time, no probs to me, and thanks Tim

[Hotspur88]

11 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +51.45pts

1300 Tramore Young Fitzy 6/1 1pt win & She Is A Contender 15/2 1pt win

1445 Brighton Botanist 11/8 4pt win

1622 Tramore Sea Prince 20/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

1720 Carlisle Limerick Leader 5/2 2pt win

9pts staked.

 

Selection added and will continue to add any further bets I place if I do so by adding them to the original post and quoting an update. 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Ok then maybe it's best I don't post the selections on the site anymore. Not because I'm throwing my toys out of the pram, but because my P/L won't be accurate and someone else may choose to follow and their P/L will read very differently.

Today for example I had an 18/1 winner with 1pt e/w to return 24.5pts. However within around an hour, the price was more along the lines of 10/1 which would return 14pts. The issue then is that there is 10.5pts less for someone else on just one of the horses. The P/L then would probably look nothing like my P/L which I can tell you is 100% accurate.

The only thing I can try to do is pass them on here as close to placing them as possible but because of life, that isn't always possible. 

I'm not too sure what I'll do from here on out as I can't guarantee that I can get them up with the prices I get and I don't want people getting frustrated when I have say a 6/1 winner and they get a 5/2 winner on the same horse.

People on this forum seem to get very touchy about prices obtained about selections.  I would suggest that you carry on as you are used to doing as it fits in with your family and work.  Tough luck if PL members can't get the price you have obtained.  At least they will realise that the value may have gone in the selected runner.  Besides, anyone can put in a bet on the betting exchanges requesting odds just above the odds that you obtained (to allow for commission).  It may get matched or it may not.  No big deal if it doesn't, one just concludes that this was not a value bet at shorter odds even if it wins.  I really can't see what all the fuss is about

Edited October 14, 2021 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

26 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Besides, anyone can put in a bet on the betting exchanges requesting odds just above the odds that you obtained (to allow for commission).  It may get matched or it may not.  No big deal if it doesn't, one just concludes that this was not a value bet at shorter odds even if it wins.  I really can't see what all the fuss is about

The fuss is because making a profit is all about value. Anybody can find lots of winners but finding value is much more difficult.

A long time ago I subscribed to a very profitable paid tipster but I didn't make a profit because the price had invariably shortened by the time I put the bet on. Betting on the exchanges doesn't really help in this instance because the odds here will also have shortened.

[alexcaruso808]

@fd1972uk some good picks in there.  I really hope Hooves Like Jagger will win, he loves running at Brighton.  

[azzybear]

findthetime 2.30

[The Equaliser]

5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The fuss is because making a profit is all about value. Anybody can find lots of winners but finding value is much more difficult.

A long time ago I subscribed to a very profitable paid tipster but I didn't make a profit because the price had invariably shortened by the time I put the bet on. Betting on the exchanges doesn't really help in this instance because the odds here will also have shortened.

Not so sure that anybody can find lots of winners even if selecting odds on favourites.

We are talking about a specific punter here trying to help other members find winners.  It is only right that he posts up his selections in accordance with his personal circumstance.  He has done a great job in helping other members finding winners since he has been on here.  Sure, the selections today shortened up, so what.  A day is a long time in racing.  Those odds can very easily change during the course of the day.  This means that his followers have an opportunity to wait and put in a bet at the price he puts up.

Despite all this how many times have you seen a good horse drift in the betting and still go on to win.  I have seen it many times.

Not so sure you should knock the betting exchanges either.  I think that you and many members could indeed profit by putting 1/3 of their usual stake on their selection(s) and then putting in a request for one further bet at odds of say 10 - 15% longer on the second bet and do the same again of an increased 10 - 15% on the third bet.  You cant do this with a bookmaker. Sure, they may not always get matched and maybe the selection will win at the shortest odds and of course it may lose and you save 2/3rds of your usual stake. At least one is playing the percentages and has a better chance of making profits in the long run

 

[Lanky Lad]

Tramore 1.30 Taggs Island 10/1

Curragh 2.15 Seattle Creek 6/1

2x1 point each way singles

1/2 point each way double.

8.00 Chelmsford Final Voyage 14/1

4.05 Wincanton. O’faolains Lad 9/2

2 x 1 point each way singles

1/2 point each way double.

Total Amount Staked = 10 points

 

[yossa6133]

Odd seeing Hammy End being well backed in the opener at Wincanton when he's so inferior to Mascat on flat form. Wonder how Raased gets on after falling at the first last time...showed plenty of ability/tenacity on his flat debut. Interesting little race for a 5 runner maiden!

[MCLARKE]

40 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Not so sure that anybody can find lots of winners even if selecting odds on favourites.

If you select odds on favourites you will find 50% winners.

 

41 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Sure, the selections today shortened up, so what. 

They were probably value at the early odds, probably not at the shorter odds, this is crucial to making a profit.

 

42 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Not so sure you should knock the betting exchanges either. 

I am not knocking the exchanges, the majority of my bets are on the exchanges. They are the best thing to happen to racing since the end of the betting tax. 

However with these sorts of tips you need to get in early, you are unlikely to make a profit on the exchanges if you miss the early prices.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection.

Chelmsford 6.30

RAMADHAAN 5/4

 

[The Equaliser]

No Trixie today as longer priced selections in competitive races

1.23 Carl Iolani £1 win at 13/2 (Bavingting Bob is a Big 3 selection so has to be respected)

1.55 Carl Slanelough £1 win at 4/1

2.55 Win Flying Verse £1 win at 6/1

3.30 win Harbour Force £1 win at 10/1

Total stakes = £4

Just a note on the 8.00 Chelms.  Montather is a Big 3 selection and looks to have a good chance, however, this looks to be a very competitive race and I don't think that anyone should go overboard on it.  I see that the racing press seems to indicate that Piece Of History could run very well.  I think that it would be most strange if Oisin Murphy picked the wrong stable horse to ride.

 

[Hotspur88]

14 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +51.45pts

1300 Tramore Young Fitzy 6/1 1pt win & She Is A Contender 15/2 1pt win

1445 Brighton Botanist 11/8 4pt win

1622 Tramore Sea Prince 20/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

1720 Carlisle Limerick Leader 5/2 2pt win

9pts staked.

 

Young Fitzy 1st & She Is A Contender 2nd. Gutted I didn't do the forecast but a nice 7pt return from the race.

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Young Fitzy 1st & She Is A Contender 2nd. Gutted I didn't do the forecast but a nice 7pt return from the race.

Great work

 

[ipswich45]

Carlisle
1430 - 7 Who's The Gov'nor          16/1 William Hill (E/W)  Unplaced
1540 - 2 Near Kettering                 6/1 Bet365    WON
1615 - 2 Low Profile                     5/1 William Hill Unplaced

Wincanton
1455 - 5 Friends Dont Ask       9/4 William Hill  Unplaced

Brighton
1630 - 4 Hooves Like Jagger       13/2 Bet365   Unplaced
1705 - 4 Give Em The Slip           13/2 William Hill  Unplaced
1740 - 2 Batchelor Boy                11/2 Bet365 Unplaced

Chelmsford
1730 - 9 Sun Rising                  7/1 Bet365  Unplaced
1900 - 1 Eagle Creek                 7/1 William Hill Unplaced
2030 - 10 Aigullette                  9/2 William Hill 2nd

Edited October 14, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

If you select odds on favourites you will find 50% winners.

 

They were probably value at the early odds, probably not at the shorter odds, this is crucial to making a profit.

 

I am not knocking the exchanges, the majority of my bets are on the exchanges. They are the best thing to happen to racing since the end of the betting tax. 

However with these sorts of tips you need to get in early, you are unlikely to make a profit on the exchanges if you miss the early prices.

Well, I realise that Young Fitzy was returned at 4.70 BSP, but She Is A Contender was returned at 10.2 BSP much better than 15/2

And just to demonstrate a point I have had £2 to win on Call Him Leader at 3.65 = £5.19 profit if it wins thus better than 5/2 even allowing for commission.  I have also requested £2 win at 4.4 & £2 win at 5.50.  On reflection asking for 5% increments is more likely to get matched than 10 - 15% as I suggested earlier.  Let's see what happens.

I think that people should have a bit more faith that prices will move during the day to what they want.  It just needs patience. 

[MCLARKE]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I think that people should have a bit more faith that prices will move during the day to what they want.  It just needs patience. 

If a horse drifts it probably means that the initial confidence is no longer there. The final price is a pretty good indication of the true chance.

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

If a horse drifts it probably means that the initial confidence is no longer there. The final price is a pretty good indication of the true chance.

In the 1.55 at Carlisle the final price of Arvico Bleu was 25/1 (forecast at 20/1 in the RP).  Looked what happened to that.  It won by four lengths.

You can't have it both ways Michael; you either have faith that a better price enhances your value bet or you decide that the selection is no longer value and try to negate the loss by getting out at break even in-running.  I prefer to hold on to the faith that the wheels haven't come the horse and that it is still the same horse and should run its race.  Market moves are not always the right ones

Edited October 14, 2021 by The Equaliser

[Hotspur88]

15 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +51.45pts

1300 Tramore Young Fitzy 6/1 1pt win & She Is A Contender 15/2 1pt win

1445 Brighton Botanist 11/8 4pt win

1622 Tramore Sea Prince 20/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

1720 Carlisle Limerick Leader 5/2 2pt win

9pts staked.

 

Botanist wasn't part of the group, it was from BGP on Twitter. I've decided I'm not going to follow them anymore. They can be very good, but recently they've lost me a good few pts which is frustrating. Frustrating as there was only 5pts staked today originally and when the first horse won that was a return of 7pts and it would have been a profit for the day but as things stand, I will make a loss due to moving away from my staking plan.