Racing Chat - Wednesday 11th August

[Zilzalian]

Todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00

100 Yarm   Tilsworth Rose                20/1    NR

230 Sali      Ribhi                              16/1     won at 20/1 we have BOG on our side here.

340 Sali      Tasfeeq                          7/1       lost (bad jockeyship imo)

450 Sali      Dartington                      11/2     3rd but all dressed up with no where to go

Odds bet365 at time of posting

Well a bit frustrating but we made a profit returns were £17.20 for six quid

And the bank is back up to £95.20 not bad from 10 x £6 quid bets. with just 1 winner from 4 per bet.

Me thinks we are due a treble.

Winners are 7/4, 7/2, 9/2, 9/2 9/1 14/1 and 20/1.

 

 

Tilsworth Rose is interesting given a few of us had a discussion about the merits of CD form (Racing chat tuesday) is 20/1 value and worth risking?

Here we have an example of a crap race with 7 runners 1 CD horse (Tilsworth Rose) 1st 2nd and 3rd in the betting all distance winners and 3 also's

Edited August 11, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[black rabbit]

Flaming Spear   7 25 kem   1/2  pt win  9/1  betfair 

 

P/L   = + 116.5 pts       

couple in frame yesterday 

 

[Offramp]

13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00

100 Yarm   Tilsworth Rose                20/1

230 Sali      Ribhi                              16/1

340 Sali      Tasfeeq                          7/1

450 Sali      Dartington                      11/2

Odds bet365 at time of posting

 

Tilsworth Rose is interesting given a few of us had a discussion about the merits of CD form (Racing chat tuesday) is 20/1 value and worth risking?

Here we have an example of a crap race with 7 runners 1 CD horse (Tilsworth Rose) 1st 2nd and 3rd in the betting all distance winners and 3 also's

Slightly funny...it's a bloody NR!

[roger2256]

August-4 

1pt level stakes win only 

15.50 Yar My Town Chicago 8/1 b365

19.25 Kem Phuket Power 16/1 wh

Prices as of now 

18.15 Ffo Helluvaboy 5/1 PP

Edited August 11, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Kempton 6.25

TINDERBOX 6/4

[The Equaliser]

Not had much time for analysis but have a few based largely upon jockey bookings so far.

1.30 Yar Kitsune Power (SDS) £3 win at 5.7 = £13.82

2.40 Yar Angel On High (SDS) £1 win at 10/1 (The Thunderer tipped by the big 3/4)

2.30 Sal Koy Koy (OM) £1 win at 11/1 & Ribhi £1 win at 25/1 (JC).  Buoyant tipped by the big 3/4)

£6 total stakes

 

 

[calva decoy]

350 Yarmouth - Joli's Legacy 12/1 ew sky 4 places 

540 Beverley - Albegone 15/2 ew bet365 

[oburro]

2 50 Beverley

Thunder Ledgend

[alexcaruso808]

Which one of you had Boafo Boy in the 1.55 at Salisbury? ??

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, oburro said:

2 50 Beverley

Thunder Ledgend

Tipped by the big 3/4 and napped by Spotlight

[The Equaliser]

3 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Which one of you had Boafo Boy in the 1.55 at Salisbury? ??

I thought its price was a bit short so I didn't back it ?

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Offramp said:

Slightly funny...it's a bloody NR!

Hey i am mustard at picking NR's but i tell you what! that Ribhi put in some performance im waiting to see what the times were but get that beast in your notebooks because that in second had some reasonable form and its murdered it FTO. 1.31 seconds faster than that 100/1 shot over same trip (6F) that's pretty good, can't see that getting beat this season.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[fd1972uk]

Chose the wrong horse on cashback bet Yarmouth 1440, thought the favourite The Thunderer was a safer bet and went against the winner. 

Had a poor start and never really recovered. 

 

Got a double later with Ariel and Shuthoor

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Which one of you had Boafo Boy in the 1.55 at Salisbury? ??

Twasn't me 

You see 

Don't you just know it 

I was on Poet ?

[The Equaliser]

I have a yankee bet today:

4.00 Bev Zumurud 5/1

4.15 Sal Lady Hayes 4/1

5.45 Ffos Hapenny 9/2

7.25 Km Rikknah 4/1

One 50p win yankee = £5.50 = poss return £807.75

Other bets

3.40 Sal Zwelela (RM) £1 win at 10/1

4.00 Bev Zumurud £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19

4.15 Sal Lady Hayes £2.30 at 5.5, Technique £1.50 at 7/4 ins bet

5.45 Ffos Hapenny £2 win at 7.6 = £12.94

7.25 Km Rikknah £2.20 win at 5.8 = £10.35

Total stakes now £22.50

 

[The Equaliser]

50 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Hey i am mustard at picking NR's but i tell you what! that Ribhi put in some performance im waiting to see what the times were but get that beast in your notebooks because that in second had some reasonable form and its murdered it FTO. 1.31 seconds faster than that 100/1 shot over same trip (6F) that's pretty good, can't see that getting beat this season.

Would you believe I backed it at 25/1 mainly because Jim Crowley was aboard.  Another disaster for the big 3/4 media tipsters who tipped up Buoyant 

[Offramp]

17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00

100 Yarm   Tilsworth Rose                20/1    NR

230 Sali      Ribhi                              16/1     won at 20/1 we have BOG on our side here.

340 Sali      Tasfeeq                          7/1

450 Sali      Dartington                      11/2

Odds bet365 at time of posting

 

Tilsworth Rose is interesting given a few of us had a discussion about the merits of CD form (Racing chat tuesday) is 20/1 value and worth risking?

Here we have an example of a crap race with 7 runners 1 CD horse (Tilsworth Rose) 1st 2nd and 3rd in the betting all distance winners and 3 also's

Superb! Instead of the Tilsworth Rose, I backed Ribhi! And it came in.

@Zilzalianis a great geezer.

[The Equaliser]

52 minutes ago, Offramp said:

Superb! Instead of the Tilsworth Rose, I backed Ribhi! And it came in.

@Zilzalianis a great geezer.

I agree, always trying to get us some winners at very decent prices

 

[cannotbebeat]

6.45 Ffos Las Hesperis 9/4

Good luck all CNBB

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Would you believe I backed it at 25/1 mainly because Jim Crowley was aboard.  Another disaster for the big 3/4 media tipsters who tipped up Buoyant 

Well personally i think Crowley is a poor Jockey he doesn't seem to be able to judge pace or he just doesn't care, if you watch the 3:40 you will see what i mean he never gave the horse (tasfeeq backed from 8/1 down to 9/2) a chance. He did the same when riding "the best miler" mohaather at ascot last year he just doesn't seem to be able to think on the job. it happens far to often for me so i have him as a 1 in 5 jockey on my list which is on a par with some of the better inexperienced jockeys.

[azzybear]

emphatic answer 5.35

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Well personally i think Crowley is a poor Jockey he doesn't seem to be able to judge pace or he just doesn't care, if you watch the 3:40 you will see what i mean he never gave the horse (tasfeeq backed from 8/1 down to 9/2) a chance. He did the same when riding "the best miler" mohaather at ascot last year he just doesn't seem to be able to think on the job. it happens far to often for me so i have him as a 1 in 5 jockey on my list which is on a par with some of the better inexperienced jockeys.

He's on about 39 and 17% winners right now.  I am just wondering who your favourite jockeys are?

I tend to look toward the top 5 of the jockeys title, not because they are anything exceptional but because they get the rides.  How did Oisin Murphy get beat on on Technique in the 4.15 at Salisbury today? He had the race at his mercy but still allowed Tom Marquand to steal it from him. And he's the champ or should I say chump.

 

 

[Wildgarden]

faheys dry spell continues with 6 wins from 135 rides over last month ?

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

He's on about 39 and 17% winners right now.  I am just wondering who your favourite jockeys are?

I tend to look toward the top 5 of the jockeys title, not because they are anything exceptional but because they get the rides.  How did Oisin Murphy get beat on on Technique in the 4.15 at Salisbury today? He had the race at his mercy but still allowed Tom Marquand to steal it from him. And he's the champ or should I say chump.

 

 

I dont have Fav Jockeys i view them as part of the enemy I think i have said previously jockey's don't win races horses do and some jockeys prevent them winning either by design or ineptitude, good example is when you see a field of 20 and non of them can make a decision so they just follow each other, also how many times have you seen a jockey follow the wrong horse because the market says that that horse will win? by the time it dawns on them they have no time to adjust, i did have one fav jockey and that was Philip Robinson he could work out any bias at any track, he was a genius and mega underrated. i do however like some trainers and often favour them when im undecided as to which horse to pick. Fabre in France Schiergan in germany and when he raids france. here alan king seems very straight to me and Tregonning does really well with what he gets.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well personally i think Crowley is a poor Jockey

He may well be a poor jockey but historically he has been very profitable with an AE of 1.09 and a profit at BSP of 590 points over the past 7 years.

[Wildgarden]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

He may well be a poor jockey but historically he has been very profitable with an AE of 1.09 and a profit at BSP of 590 points over the past 7 years.

must be getting rides or not bet on or both lol

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I am just wondering who your favourite jockeys are?

I don't really include jockeys as part of my selection process but the top 5 statistically over the last 7 years are :-

G Baker AE 1.19

PP Mathers 1.16

WJ Lee 1.15

Joe Doyle 1.13

K O'Neill 1.11

I have only included those that have had 100+ winners

The bottom 5 are :-

C Hardie 0.79

Hayley Turner 0.88

T Eaves 0.89

SW Kelly 0.90

Luke Morris 0.90

You have been warned !

 

 

[Zilzalian]

Bugger that second cost me a few squid on my lucky 31

[alexcaruso808]

Nice work @Zilzalian!!

[MCLARKE]

25 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

He may well be a poor jockey but historically he has been very profitable with an AE of 1.09 and a profit at BSP of 590 points over the past 7 years.

Interestingly he has a very poor record with unraced horses, an AE of 0.73 and a strike rate of 8%.

Perhaps of more concern was that last year was a poor year with an AE of 0.92 and a strike rate of 17% compared to 22% the previous year. Maybe he's not as good as he was.