Racing Chat - Wednesday 11th August

[Villa Chris]

26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Bugger that second cost me a few squid on my lucky 31

My mother-in-law knows sod all about horses but she’s keeps knocking at the door for a big pay day. She’s does small stake accas and the amount of times one horse has let her down. She did win a few grand the once, but she’s came very close to five figure pay outs. She goes by name or gut feeling and doesn’t let price put her off. 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

My mother-in-law knows sod all about horses but she’s keeps knocking at the door for a big pay day. She’s does small stake accas and the amount of times one horse has let her down. She did win a few grand the once, but she’s came very close to five figure pay outs. She goes by name or gut feeling and doesn’t let price put her off. 

then move her on to Lucky 15s or  31's to small stakes and because she bothers not about price at least she will hit now an again, the more hits the more she wins, thats my advice. i use them so i have something to watch in a race to be honest "the more you see, the more you know"

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I don't really include jockeys as part of my selection process but the top 5 statistically over the last 7 years are :-

G Baker AE 1.19

PP Mathers 1.16

WJ Lee 1.15

Joe Doyle 1.13

K O'Neill 1.11

I have only included those that have had 100+ winners

The bottom 5 are :-

C Hardie 0.79

Hayley Turner 0.88

T Eaves 0.89

SW Kelly 0.90

Luke Morris 0.90

You have been warned !

 

 

Many thanks for the stats.  Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers.  There used be a book called "Trainers Records" many years ago but I guess there was insufficient demand for it and was laid to rest.  It seems to me that if stats can be produced instantly for football or tennis matches these days why can't someone work on trainers and jockey stats daily that shows where the strengths and weaknesses are for both.    

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

My mother-in-law knows sod all about horses but she’s keeps knocking at the door for a big pay day. She’s does small stake accas and the amount of times one horse has let her down. She did win a few grand the once, but she’s came very close to five figure pay outs. She goes by name or gut feeling and doesn’t let price put her off. 

I usually reserve name calling after a race has finished

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have a yankee bet today:

4.00 Bev Zumurud 5/1

4.15 Sal Lady Hayes 4/1

5.45 Ffos Hapenny 9/2

7.25 Km Rikknah 4/1

One 50p win yankee = £5.50 = poss return £807.75

Other bets

3.40 Sal Zwelela (RM) £1 win at 10/1

4.00 Bev Zumurud £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19

4.15 Sal Lady Hayes £2.30 at 5.5, Technique £1.50 at 7/4 ins bet

5.45 Ffos Hapenny £2 win at 7.6 = £12.94

7.25 Km Rikknah £2.20 win at 5.8 = £10.35

Total stakes now £22.50

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Good job I got @Zilzalian's winner at 25/1 for £1 as I had nothing else, though a couple came close. This yielded a net profit on the day of £3.50 and my new balance is £702.09 (Bank (£1056.22).  

The big 3/4 media tipsters had 6 runners today.  3 won and the other 3 lost.  One winner was 3/1 Queenie Newall and Last Hoorah and Shuthoor won so just over a £2 profit on the day using £1 stakes

A couple of classy races at Salisbury tomorrow and we have another Racing League Handicap class 3 venue at Lingfield as well.  From what I recall the last one worked out quite well for favourite backers

 

 

[MCLARKE]

26 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers. 

Not really I'm afraid. I calculate all my own stats.

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Kempton 6.25

TINDERBOX 6/4

Won. BSP 2.35.

29 / 88, lsp +22.10.

[alexcaruso808]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for the stats.  Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers.  There used be a book called "Trainers Records" many years ago but I guess there was insufficient demand for it and was laid to rest.  It seems to me that if stats can be produced instantly for football or tennis matches these days why can't someone work on trainers and jockey stats daily that shows where the strengths and weaknesses are for both.    

Sky Sport has some stats - https://www.skysports.com/racing/statistics

Adrian Massey has some too http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/pages/raccse.php

 

 

[The Equaliser]

28 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Sky Sport has some stats - https://www.skysports.com/racing/statistics

Adrian Massey has some too http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/pages/raccse.php

 

 

Thanks Alex.  There is also a website called Flat stats.  What I am looking for is some bright spark who comes up with stuff like Richard Kingscote is a master in sprints and performs badly in middle distance races (not necessarily true of course) and he does better on the all weather which of course is true as he is the champ.  Or a trainer does best with his 2 year olds at a particular track but does not perform well with the older horses etc.  A lot of the current available info is very much old school stats.  In this modern age where we see instant stats in relation to football matches that are live one would think that someone out there would cotton on to the idea that on any given day we have a number of races to look at.  Bearing that in mind it is not beyond the realms of possibility to use modern technology to provide really useful jockey/trainer stats in relation to a race under review to help us punters focus on what is relevant

[alexcaruso808]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Thanks Alex.  There is also a website called Flat stats.  What I am looking for is some bright spark who comes up with stuff like Richard Kingscote is a master in sprints and performs badly in middle distance races (not necessarily true of course) and he does better on the all weather which of course is true as he is the champ.  Or a trainer does best with his 2 year olds at a particular track but does not perform well with the older horses etc.  A lot of the current available info is very much old school stats.  In this modern age where we see instant stats in relation to football matches that are live one would think that someone out there would cotton on to the idea that on any given day we have a number of races to look at.  Bearing that in mind it is not beyond the realms of possibility to use modern technology to provide really useful jockey/trainer stats in relation to a race under review to help us punters focus on what is relevant

Something like that would be great, and I'm surprised no one has made a website with such info available on it.

There is so much data out there for American racing and a load for Hong Kong racing, but very little for UK and Irish racing!  Very strange!

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

he does better on the all weather which of course is true as he is the champ

I think anybody with reasonable excess skils can probably glean the sort of info you are after. I suspect the problem is that the sample sizes are relatively small.

Out of interest I have had a look at R Kingscote and he has a poor profit record on the AW with an AE of 0.91. On the turf it is 1.04.

Again he seems to be a jockey in decline with an AR for the 4 years to 2017 of 1.09 and since then 0.92. His strike rate last year was his lowest of the 7 years at 11%.

[gbettle]

On 8/11/2021 at 11:41 PM, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for the stats.  Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers.  There used be a book called "Trainers Records" many years ago but I guess there was insufficient demand for it and was laid to rest.  It seems to me that if stats can be produced instantly for football or tennis matches these days why can't someone work on trainers and jockey stats daily that shows where the strengths and weaknesses are for both.    

This is just for the flat:

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/best-value-jockeys.php

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/trainer-form-stats.php

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/racecards/trainer-course-zones

There's a load more, under the "Daily Info" tab.

[The Equaliser]

49 minutes ago, gbettle said:

This is just for the flat:

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/best-value-jockeys.php

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/trainer-form-stats.php

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/racecards/trainer-course-zones

There's a load more, under the "Daily Info" tab.

Many thanks fro that.  I have looked at this site before.  As I said to Alex, the available stats seem very much "old school" and need to be updated so as to be more dynnamic e.g. how a jockey performs at different tracks and over different distances, whether he is currently in or out of form and which trainers he is more successful with.  There is a wealth of information that can be gleaned from up to date jockey and trainer information.  The technology is out there as we see with football matches where there are instant stats regarding a player's performance on the pitch in a live game.  This is what we need to help us find winners imo.