Racing Chat - Wednesday 14th July

[Darran]

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.

The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 

The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.

Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.

Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

[black rabbit]

 

Outtake    5  15   wolv     1/2  pt  win  @  60/1  betfair 

 

P/L   =  + 120  pts  

 

[cannotbebeat]

Lingfield
2.45 Outside World 5/1

4.30 Holbache 9/4

Yarmouth
5.00 Missile 100/30

6.35 Super Over 7/2

7.05 Emperor Spirit 7/4

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

Not had much chance to look so far:

2.10 Lin This is a two and a half mile race.  I had to look twice to believe it.  Who can say which horse can best see this out? I'll pass

1.20 Uttx Pasqualita has shortened from 2/1 last night to 6/4 today.  The horse is un-raced and I like to see them prove themselves before I back them.  Ginger Du Val has good recent form and is steady at 5/2 but I'll give the race a miss

1.55 Uttx, Percy's Word should win this but it is still a maiden and was beaten at short odds last time. Hats off to it if it wins but I'm not taking 11/10 about it

3.05 Uttx All Hail Caeser £3 win at 8.33 = £21.56 profit if it wins.  The horse was posted at around 3/1 last night so it is a drifter at a best price of 7/1.  I am reminded of Global Prospector who drifted out to 10/1 yesterday and won well.  I am  adopting the attitude now that the selection is still the same horse despite market influences.  When these horses win they more than make up for the shortening priced horses that lose.

Back later

 

[roger2256]

July -4.5 

1pt level stakes win only

16.50 Utt Chat to Charlie 15/2 Lost

16.50 Utt Lambs Lane  8/1 Lost

17.10 Cat Capla Lass 16/1 Lost

19.45 Wol Geremia  9/1  Won

19.55 Kil Grey Serge 16/1 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

+5

July .5

Edited July 14, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[Bang on]

I have done 3 x EW doubles

1. 2.10 Ling - Russian Rumour (7/1) - lost, and 7.45 Wolv - Countessa (11/4) - lost ... LOST

2. 4.30 Ling - Kodiac Attack (11/4) - WON 3-1, and 5.00 Yar - Natural Colour (15/8) - 3rd 4-1 .... small profit with EW

3. 7.35 Yar - Oakenshield (7/1) - WON 11-2, and 8.05 Yar - Portelet Bay (5/2) - WON 3-1 .... 31/1 double (BOG) + EW profit

Edited July 14, 2021 by Bang on

[fd1972uk]

Had Percy World on for a double (yes yes was other half), fell apart after nearly wrecking the 2nd last fence, lol. 

Got Baileys Liberty 5.30 Yar and Hurricane Lane Plc 1920 later. 

Edited July 14, 2021 by fd1972uk

[azzybear]

youlovemewheniwin 3.20 ew 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not had much chance to look so far:

2.10 Lin This is a two and a half mile race.  I had to look twice to believe it.  Who can say which horse can best see this out? I'll pass

1.20 Uttx Pasqualita has shortened from 2/1 last night to 6/4 today.  The horse is un-raced and I like to see them prove themselves before I back them.  Ginger Du Val has good recent form and is steady at 5/2 but I'll give the race a miss

1.55 Uttx, Percy's Word should win this but it is still a maiden and was beaten at short odds last time. Hats off to it if it wins but I'm not taking 11/10 about it

3.05 Uttx All Hail Caeser £3 win at 8.33 = £21.56 profit if it wins.  The horse was posted at around 3/1 last night so it is a drifter at a best price of 7/1.  I am reminded of Global Prospector who drifted out to 10/1 yesterday and won well.  I am  adopting the attitude now that the selection is still the same horse despite market influences.  When these horses win they more than make up for the shortening priced horses that lose.

Back later

 

I was right about 3 of the above and have saved money by not backing them

3.40 Uttx Siannes Star £3.20 at 7.4 = £18.11 profit if it wins.  Big drifter was 6/4, 5/2 last night.  Had £2.00 at 2.68 on the favourite Yccs Portocervo.  This has stayed strong in the market.  I wiil get out at B/E if this beats my horse

3.30 Catt Seas Of Elzaam £3.20 win 13/2 = £24 return if it wins.  The bookies are all over the place on prices for this one, some quoting as low as 3/1.  I don't fancy any of the front two in the market as an insurance bet

4.05 Catt Muntadab £8.00win at 3.9 = £21.36 profit if it wins.  Have had £3 win at 3.9 on the favourite = 69p profit as an insurance bet

Will look at two races at Yarmouth next

 

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I was right about 3 of the above and have saved money by not backing them

3.40 Uttx Siannes Star £3.20 at 7.4 = £18.11 profit if it wins.  Big drifter was 6/4, 5/2 last night.  Had £2.00 at 2.68 on the favourite Yccs Portocervo.  This has stayed strong in the market.  I wiil get out at B/E if this beats my horse

3.30 Catt Seas Of Elzaam £3.20 win 13/2 = £24 return if it wins.  The bookies are all over the place on prices for this one, some quoting as low as 3/1.  I don't fancy any of the front two in the market as an insurance bet

4.05 Catt Muntadab £8.00win at 3.9 = £21.36 profit if it wins.  Have had £3 win at 3.9 on the favourite = 69p profit as an insurance bet

Will look at two races at Yarmouth next

 

6.35 Yar Dashing dick £6.50 win at 4.2 for £20.38 (um 3.95) No ins bet

7.05 Yar Desert Gulf £3 win at 8.0 = £20.58 profit if it wins.  Very open race; take your pick

= £31.90 poss total stakes

 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Yarmouth 6.05

EL PICARO 11/10

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I am  adopting the attitude now that the selection is still the same horse despite market influences.  When these horses win they more than make up for the shortening priced horses that lose.

This is an interesting subject. How important is the fact that the odds shorten or lengthen. I don't have a lot of data to back this up but I have a feeling I would be better off waiting until nearer the off and then only backing those selections that have shortened in price.

As an example I had 2 potential selections for today's nap in the same race, the 4.40 at Catterick. Overnight COVER NAME was 4/5 and ENTWHISTLE was 5/2. I selected the shortest priced horse, COVER NAME.

On the day COVER NAME drifted from 4/5 to 11/8 and ENTWHISTLE shortened from 5/2 to 6/4. ENTWHISTLE won easily.

I suspect that there are factors that can only be determined when the horse can be seen, i.e. does the horse look fit / unfit, dull, green, frightened etc.

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This is an interesting subject. How important is the fact that the odds shorten or lengthen. I don't have a lot of data to back this up but I have a feeling I would be better off waiting until nearer the off and then only backing those selections that have shortened in price.

As an example I had 2 potential selections for today's nap in the same race, the 4.40 at Catterick. Overnight COVER NAME was 4/5 and ENTWHISTLE was 5/2. I selected the shortest priced horse, COVER NAME.

On the day COVER NAME drifted from 4/5 to 11/8 and ENTWHISTLE shortened from 5/2 to 6/4. ENTWHISTLE won easily.

I suspect that there are factors that can only be determined when the horse can be seen, i.e. does the horse look fit / unfit, dull, green, frightened etc.

might be right in some respects; i had a few come in today some.drift a bit that won and some drifted a lot that lost and i didnt go with. look at below doonbeg backed in (backed) at smaller price), dusk the winner drifted a bit (backed) and bristol drifted a lot (left) bristol clearly the big drifter 4th. would be good to have some stats on this?

[Bang on]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This is an interesting subject. How important is the fact that the odds shorten or lengthen. I don't have a lot of data to back this up but I have a feeling I would be better off waiting until nearer the off and then only backing those selections that have shortened in price.

As an example I had 2 potential selections for today's nap in the same race, the 4.40 at Catterick. Overnight COVER NAME was 4/5 and ENTWHISTLE was 5/2. I selected the shortest priced horse, COVER NAME.

On the day COVER NAME drifted from 4/5 to 11/8 and ENTWHISTLE shortened from 5/2 to 6/4. ENTWHISTLE won easily.

I suspect that there are factors that can only be determined when the horse can be seen, i.e. does the horse look fit / unfit, dull, green, frightened etc.

Market moves/drifts play a part in my selection process regularly. I can tell you, money usually talks, but beware of the short ones.

I used to find winners far more easily pre-lockdown and BEFORE THE BOOKMAKER MADE PRICES . The on course market was much more informative. I struggled for a while just to break even until I noticed certain bookmaker 'tricks' as I call them. They know that people watch the market, and IMO manipulate the market to draw people in. A good example today was 

7.15 Wolv - Twilight Secret - forecast at 2/1 in Racing Post .. moved to 8/11 by 11.00am (That is a 25% move - absolutely MASSIVE) . I NEVER trust moves as big as that, and I would never back odds on, it just isn't worth it in the long run. Let them run (and occasionally win), but see how many get beat.

My best bet today (on this thread ) was

7.35 Yar - Oakenshield - forecast 20/1 in RP.. available at 7/1 (11.00am) -won ... in a double with 8.05 -Portelet - F/c 7/2 in RP ..available at 5/2 (11.00am) - won at 3-1 (drifted... bonus)

Edited July 14, 2021 by Bang on

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Yarmouth 6.05

EL PICARO 11/10

Another example of following the market. EL PICARO drifted from 4/6 to 11/8. 

BAKE shortened from 6/4 to 8/11.

BAKE won "very easily", beating EL PICARO by 15 lengths over 7 furlongs !

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This is an interesting subject. How important is the fact that the odds shorten or lengthen. I don't have a lot of data to back this up but I have a feeling I would be better off waiting until nearer the off and then only backing those selections that have shortened in price.

As an example I had 2 potential selections for today's nap in the same race, the 4.40 at Catterick. Overnight COVER NAME was 4/5 and ENTWHISTLE was 5/2. I selected the shortest priced horse, COVER NAME.

On the day COVER NAME drifted from 4/5 to 11/8 and ENTWHISTLE shortened from 5/2 to 6/4. ENTWHISTLE won easily.

I suspect that there are factors that can only be determined when the horse can be seen, i.e. does the horse look fit / unfit, dull, green, frightened etc.

I love nothing more than when my horse drifts, especially if i have backed it already, In my experience even if ur horse doesn't drift it could lose anyway so yippee doo if it drifts. example i backed Babelone in france last night at 5/1 today it doubled in price bet365 sp paid 10/1

[Darran]

As regards to drifters I think it all depends on who the horse is trained by. There are some trainers whose horses you wouldn't want to go anywhere near if they took a walk in the market. The one I put up today drifted before the off and was double figures on Betfair which did give me a bit of concern as the yard usually back their horses if fancied. As it turned out it won pretty easily having looked the winner from a long way out. Sometimes horses just drift because others are being backed and I think in this case this is what happened here. 

[The Equaliser]

The wonders of market mechanisms in horse racing. Fascinating subject.  I think that all contributors have made good points @MCLARKE @Wildgarden@Bang on@Zilzalianand @Darran so how can we profit by it?  Despite my comments about Global Prospector drifting like a barge and then wining at 10/1 I do feel that on balance @MCLARKEis right in that more often than not a horse will probably win when its price shortens and lose when it price seriously lengthens.  The way to profit from this may be to take prices about one's selections during the day then, check in the run up to the race(s) to see how the market has moved with regard to all your selections.  If you have backed a horse and its price has shortened then let it run as you have at least achieved value with regard to its market price.  If you find that any of your selections have drifted significantly then put in a an in-running lay bet on one of the betting exchanges so as to cancel the bet at a break even should the horse run well enough to at least get matched in running so as to negate the liability.  If it either wins or loses and has been matched you have lost nothing.  By capiitalising on shortened price winners and trying to get out of bets with drifters at break even your profits may increase.

With regard to market drifters I feel that the best approach is to record the previous evening's prices (I capture the ATR racecards (instead of Oddschecker) as I like to check ATR/Timeform comments as well).  Check prices the next day from around 10am.  If you see that your fancy has drifted and you are still keen on it, then request a "back" bet on the exchanges at a much better price than is currently being offered e.g. a drift from 4.5 to 7.00 then request something like 10.0.  However, in doing so make sure that you reduce your betting stake so as to at least achieve the same profit had you taken the bet at the earlier price.  In this way you are getting value should the horse win since you risked less money in order to achieve your profit.

Just a couple of thoughts

 

 

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

6.35 Yar Dashing dick £6.50 win at 4.2 for £20.38 (um 3.95) No ins bet

7.05 Yar Desert Gulf £3 win at 8.0 = £20.58 profit if it wins.  Very open race; take your pick

= £31.90 poss total stakes

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Three winners today but Dashing Dick didn't get  matched.  The other two resulted in a net profit of £30.54.  My new balance is £781.58 (Bank £1056.22)

There are 5 UK meetings tomorrow with 11 class 4 events and just one class 3 race at Worcester, 3/1 seems to be the best price obtainable for favourite followers.  

 

[Darran]

I think the other thing to note is why a horse has shortened in the first place. My tip yesterday shortened after I tipped it and it could just have been a case that everyone who wanted to back it was on in the morning. Maybe people were laying it come race time as they were only looking at its rules form. I think quite a few of these horses that shorten the night before or in the morning are because a tipster has put them up and therefore come race time if the general public want to be with something else then it will drift back out. Nothing sinister about that at all. I think the go to thought with gambles or drifters are connections either fancy them or don’t fancy them and yes that will be true in some cases, but often it won’t be.

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

If you find that any of your selections have drifted significantly then put in a an in-running lay bet

It does sound counter intuitive laying a horse that you previously thought was a good bet to win. 

The best approach may be to wait until just before the off and if your selection has been supported then back it. It is an extra positive sign.

I will trawl through some of my past results and see what conclusions I come to.

[Bang on]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

I think the other thing to note is why a horse has shortened in the first place. My tip yesterday shortened after I tipped it and it could just have been a case that everyone who wanted to back it was on in the morning. Maybe people were laying it come race time as they were only looking at its rules form. I think quite a few of these horses that shorten the night before or in the morning are because a tipster has put them up and therefore come race time if the general public want to be with something else then it will drift back out. Nothing sinister about that at all. I think the go to thought with gambles or drifters are connections either fancy them or don’t fancy them and yes that will be true in some cases, but often it won’t be.

Yes, tipsters like pricewise in the Racing Post have strong followings and can move the market. I have to agree that certain trainers (no names) have runners that drift alarmingly and run like stink. This works in our favour though as we can usually eliminate a few from consideration.

[Darran]

22 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Yes, tipsters like pricewise in the Racing Post have strong followings and can move the market. I have to agree that certain trainers (no names) have runners that drift alarmingly and run like stink. This works in our favour though as we can usually eliminate a few from consideration.

He tips in races that will be fairly robust markets though, I was more talking about the online tipsters who tip in the low grade races and force moves that way. 

[Darran]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

It does sound counter intuitive laying a horse that you previously thought was a good bet to win. 

The best approach may be to wait until just before the off and if your selection has been supported then back it. It is an extra positive sign.

I will trawl through some of my past results and see what conclusions I come to.

But then you have missed the price and the horse might not be value any longer. Some people would go in again if a horse drifts out. It would be very rare for me to wait to back a horse to see if it gets backed or not. If you think a horse is going to win and the price is value then back it. If it drifts then make a decision if you want to cash out for a small loss or not, but unless it is from a yard that I would be suspicious of it really wouldn't worry me that much. 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

The best approach may be to wait until just before the off and if your selection has been supported then back it. It is an extra positive sign.

I have analysed Ralphie's quick system over the last couple of years and this does seem to support this approach.

Horses that shortened by 8% or more resulted in 36 winners from 64 selections (56% SR) with a profit at SP of 23%.

Horses that drifted by 8% or more resulted in 8 winners from 30 selections (27% SR) with a loss at SP of -6%.

 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

But then you have missed the price and the horse might not be value any longer.

Yes this is the conundrum. Although with being restricted by most bookmakers I am often forced to use BSP and in this instance I think it will be best to wait until the off, on the evidence so far I certainly won't back it if it has drifted.