Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June

[The Brigadier]

Derby Day! The unexpected rain fall on Friday morning/afternoon took many, myself included by surprise but it does seem that its dry from then on in and the ground for Saturday is likely to ride on the slow side. Here’s my early thoughts on the day’s seven races. 

Epsom 2.00

King Frankel was runner up in the London Cup to a potential Group horse in Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge though he has been raised 6lb for being beaten 4L and although that race is normally a good yardstick to future success has yet to been tested so although he must have a sound chance I’ll rather be with the form credentials of the Ralph Beckett trained Patient Dream who won here at the April meeting over 1m and should relish the step up 2F here with his dam a winner over 12F. He’s been shunted up 7lb for that success but the firm has worked out remarkably well with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th all winning since!. Add in the factor of a low draw and the booking of champion jockey Oisin Murphy and I feel we have ourselves a decent bet. 

PATIENT DREAM 2 points each way @  4/1 1/5th 123 BetVictor

Epsom 2.35

The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes can go the way of the Martyn Meade trained three year old Statement who ran a stormer on his re-appearance when just beaten in a head bobbing finish by the smart Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling at Newbury. That form has worked out nicely with the winner and third finishing 5th and 6th in the 1000 Guineas and 4th Primo Bacio impressively winning the Michael Seeley Memorial race at York. Statement went on herself to finish a credible 8th (beaten 6L) in the 1000 Guineas and getting weight from the older mares looks the likeliest winner here under David Egan. The likes of Maamora, Posted and Nazuna all hold chances on the form book but we know how good they are and this may well go to an improver. 

STATEMENT 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

Epsom 3.10

Century Dream won this in 2018 on his only run at the track and is the highest rated horse in the race. Crisford’s classy 7 year old is best when the mud is flying and connections would of been over the moon to have seen the rain that fell on Friday and will be hard to beat. Bell Rock is stepping up in grade though has a chance .Sir Michael Stoute runs Maximal who has numerous Group 1 entries this Summer. The only three year old in the field he’s shown up well on both his starts this season in finishing runner up to two smart sorts in Hurricane Lane and El Drama. Drying ground would have been right up his street as all his relations thrived when encountering fast ground but the ground has maybe gone against him and in favour of Century Dream and with James Doyle in the plate can  take this Group 3 Cazoo Diomed Stakes run over 9F and 13 yards. 

CENTURY DREAM  3 points win @3/1 BetVictor

 

Epsom 3.45

The Dash Handicap run over one of the fastest 5F in the land is a sight to see and once again there is a maximum field of 20 going to post. The draw is a strange one as it always used to be the low numbers on the far side that had the call but there has been times in recent years when it’s totally flipped and high have come out on top. Personally I would prefer a low number and in an open handicap my pin has fallen on the 2019 winner Ornate who flashed home from stall 2 that year off of a handicap mark of 99 and races here today off of 98 so David C Griffith’s 7 year old could be well treated. He teed up for this with a credible 8th of 11 in listed company last Saturday in the race won by Kings Lynn at Haydock and will appreciate the better ground here today. Shop around with the bookmakers with William Hill paying 6 places and Skybet 7 places. His regular pilot Phil Dennis is in the saddle. 

ORNATE 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/4th 12345 Bet365

 

Epsom 430

This year’s Cazoo Derby has attracted 12 quality colts going for glory over 1m 4F of this unique track. Aidan 0’Brien throw a curve ball when announcing that he will only be running just the one in Bolshoi Ballet. The last time he was represented by just a sole challenger was when Bolshoi Ballet’s sire Galileo won 20 years ago. He’s unbeaten in two trials in Ireland this season and is undoubtably the most likely winner but at around 5/4 and many firms paying extra places it may be wise to look elsewhere for some each way value. Mac Swiney brings classic winning form to the table having won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time and as dual Group 1 winner in heavy ground connections would of been delighted to have seen the rain that fell during Friday. He’s stepping up to 1m 4F for the first time and trained by the maestro Jim Bolger can run a big race. Godolphin saddle three with the pick being Hurricane Lane who won the traditionally best Derby trial, the Dante at York last time. He looks sure to run well stepping up in distance. The William Haggas trained Mohaafeth was an easy winner of a listed race at Newmarket last month. This represents a big step up in grade, his form has yet to be tested and he would of been the pick if the rain hadn’t arrived as he’s a better horse on genuine fast ground. With extra places around with bookmakers the best value looks to be Mac Swiney Each Way. 

MAC SWINEY 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 Boylesports

 

Epsom 5.15

The key piece of form to un ravelling this handicap appears to be the City And Surburban Handicap run over course and distance back in April. Group One Power won that by 3/4L from Soto Sizzler and has since gone on to run well when runner up to Louganini at Ascot. He has a solid chance but it’s the runner up that day Soto Sizzler that appeals to me on 4lb better terms. He has an excellent record at the track with form figures of 112 including this event 2 years ago and maybe he just didn’t stay 1m 6F last time when flopping at Newmarket. Trained in West Sussex by David Menuisier he will be ridden by Oisin Murphy who won him here back in April 2019 and looks decent each way value. Top weight Lost Eden is the least unexposed in the field but appears to have plenty of weight for his handicap debut. 

SOTO SIZZLER 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Epsom 5.50

 

The configuration of the track means that low numbers are always going to be favoured with the winning draw over the last 9 years coming from 4,7,10,6,7,4,15,4 and 5 so as you can see it maybe wise to concentrate on those drawn low. Top weight Danzeno is in stall 2 but we haven’t seen him for awhile and he’s overlooked. David Menuisier’s Atalanta’s Boy appeared better than ever when winning on his re-appearance at his favourite track Goodwood and although he’s racing off of his highest ever handicap mark here of 95 following a 4lb rise for that victory he’s favourably berthed in stall 6 and with his regular pilot Thomas Greatrex riding looks set to run a big race. There’s many others with chances and as always shop around for the firms paying extra places here in this 14 runner 86-105 sprint handicap that concludes this year’s Cazoo Derby meeting.

 

ATALANTA'S BOY 1 point each way 6/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

 

[Zilzalian]

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)

Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)

 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Musselburgh 4.00

VENTURA DIAMOND 7/2

[Wanderlust]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)

Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)

 

The only way of knowing how good that form is, is by seeing what happens with Snowfall from hereon in.

Whichever way you look at it, in my opinion that was an impressive win. When you listen to Dettori and he is puting that perormance in the same category ar Enables wins, then you have to sit up and take notice.

I do, however, think that there were many in the field who simply did not stay, especially on the softer ground.

Regarding O'Brien, I think he has mastered the art of diplomacy. And he believes, rightly or wrongly, that his priorities are directed towards his owners and not the racing public.

Deep down, a trainer of his ability will have a good idea about which horse will come out best.

I like to watch the market 5 minutes before the off with regards to O'Briens horses. THere is a high percentage of times that the horse for money just before the off, either wins or comes close. Yesterday Snowfall was hammered a few minutes before the off.

[Alley Cat Glover]

Well Derby Day is here, not taken with any particular selection, only one Aiden O'Brien runner and not at that price for me, having watched Bolshoi’s last race (no pacemaker this time)  I’ve gone for Joseph's Southern Lights (made no inroads on Bolshoi according to someone who writes these comments against horse form). For me watching the replay had no run and may have finished a closing 2nd if not met by 2 horses going backwards and was unable to finish his run, with an extra 2f who knows, downside not sure about low draw, seem to remember you don’t want to be in stalls 1-4 but who knows.

Anyway Sky 5 places or Paddy 4 places (with best odds) 33/1 that will do for me 

[black rabbit]

Escobar   3 10   Eps   1/2  pt win   15/1   betfair 

Yimou    3 45  Eps     1/2  pt  win  20/1  betfair 

Youth Spirit   4  30  1/2  pt  win  38/1  betfair 

[MrJol]

Gone for JOHN LEEPER in the Derby, think he will be riding away from them at the finish. The further he goes the better he will be. 

[cannotbebeat]

My bets for Saturday 5th June 2021

 

1.45 Worcester Mill Green 11/4 - Nico de Boinville/Nicky Henderson.

£10 single

 

3.30 Worcester Quickbuck 15/8 - Nico de Boinville/Nicky Henderson.

£10 single

 

4.30 Epsom Downs Hurricane Lane 6/1 - William Buick/Charlie Appleby.

£10 single

 

5.15 Epsom Downs Australis 18/1 - David Egan/Roger Varian.

£10 single

 

Good luck all CNBB.

[fd1972uk]

That's my lot for today in UK as doing the US Racing at Gulfstream later in evening, was thinking of a treble or such for UK, but not sure. 

Money back if in top 3/4 for Epsom 1400 and BB in the Derby which gave me another free bet. 

[alancraik]

todays epsom selections

EPSOM 14:35 Tomorrows Dream 14/1 e/w

 

  EPSOM DOWNS 15:10 Century Dream  7/4 win

 

 

  EPSOM  15:45 Lord Riddiford 11/1 e/w

 

 

  EPSOM  16:30 Hurricane Lane  6/1 e/w

 

 

  EPSOM  17:15 The Trader  11/1 e/w

 

 

 

  EPSOM 17:50 Lexington Dash  11/2 e/w

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

the derby 

john leeper for me 10/1 £5 e/w bet365

[fd1972uk]

Small bet with decent returns. 

[The Equaliser]

My Epsom bets today

2.00 I like Patient Dream as it is a course winner, but I don't like the price as it has been smashed.  No value at best price 11/4; I'll Pass

2.35 Maamora (WB) £5 win at 5.2 for £20.58.  I suppose Statement may beat it but what the hec

3.10 Oh This Is Us (TM).  £4 matched at 4.1 3TBP for £12.15 profit.  I like the horse and it would seem a good bet for it to get within the first three at that price out of 7 runners.

3.45 Recon Mission (RD3) £2 win at 13.5 = £24.50 looks fair value

4.30 Bolshoi Ballet £2 win ins bet at 2.72 = £3.41 (I noticed that none of the Opening Show pundits selected the Aiden runner; ridiculous!).  Third Realm £1 win at 12/1 and a £2 place bet 3TBP at 3.7 = £5.29 profit

5.15 Group One Power looks good, but not for me at 2.72

5.50 Kimifive (OM) £3 win at 8.4 = £19.80 if wins and Lexington Dash (TM) £2 win at 7.00 Ins + Profit of £8.82 if it wins

Total stakes = £21 for Epsom today

Good luck to all today; should be a great day of entertainment come what may

 

[calva decoy]

Saturday night Win Lucky 15 

715 Ling - Act Naturally 5/1 

800 Chep - Gambon 5/1 

830 Chep - Taylored 13/8 

845 Ling - Tynecastle Park 10/3 

Bet365 ???

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Money back if in top 3

Probably better going with the SP option with the Sky offer as they don't offer BOG and early prices are usually a bit skinny.

[roger2256]

June +8

1pt level stakes win only 

14.20 Wor Hurricane Dylan 17/2 pp

Price as of now 

[calva decoy]

15 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)

Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)

 

Horses do improve from 2 to 3 & fillies usually later in the season .

She seemed to act on the ground a lot better , if anyone was guilty of anything yesterday it was the clerk of the course declaring it good to soft when they were clearly going in a long way .

[fd1972uk]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Probably better going with the SP option with the Sky offer as they don't offer BOG and early prices are usually a bit skinny.

Yeah maybe look at that. 

 

Both horses placed respectively, so got it back (1 bet as cash, other as free bet). 

[azzybear]

desert sahari 5.50

[azzybear]

artical fifty 5.55 ew

[The Brigadier]

On 6/4/2021 at 4:02 PM, The Brigadier said:

Derby Day! The unexpected rain fall on Friday morning/afternoon took many, myself included by surprise but it does seem that its dry from then on in and the ground for Saturday is likely to ride on the slow side. Here’s my early thoughts on the day’s seven races. 

Epsom 2.00

King Frankel was runner up in the London Cup to a potential Group horse in Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge though he has been raised 6lb for being beaten 4L and although that race is normally a good yardstick to future success has yet to been tested so although he must have a sound chance I’ll rather be with the form credentials of the Ralph Beckett trained Patient Dream who won here at the April meeting over 1m and should relish the step up 2F here with his dam a winner over 12F. He’s been shunted up 7lb for that success but the firm has worked out remarkably well with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th all winning since!. Add in the factor of a low draw and the booking of champion jockey Oisin Murphy and I feel we have ourselves a decent bet. 

PATIENT DREAM 2 points each way @  4/1 1/5th 123 BetVictor

Epsom 2.35

The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes can go the way of the Martyn Meade trained three year old Statement who ran a stormer on his re-appearance when just beaten in a head bobbing finish by the smart Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling at Newbury. That form has worked out nicely with the winner and third finishing 5th and 6th in the 1000 Guineas and 4th Primo Bacio impressively winning the Michael Seeley Memorial race at York. Statement went on herself to finish a credible 8th (beaten 6L) in the 1000 Guineas and getting weight from the older mares looks the likeliest winner here under David Egan. The likes of Maamora, Posted and Nazuna all hold chances on the form book but we know how good they are and this may well go to an improver. 

STATEMENT 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

Epsom 3.10

Century Dream won this in 2018 on his only run at the track and is the highest rated horse in the race. Crisford’s classy 7 year old is best when the mud is flying and connections would of been over the moon to have seen the rain that fell on Friday and will be hard to beat. Bell Rock is stepping up in grade though has a chance .Sir Michael Stoute runs Maximal who has numerous Group 1 entries this Summer. The only three year old in the field he’s shown up well on both his starts this season in finishing runner up to two smart sorts in Hurricane Lane and El Drama. Drying ground would have been right up his street as all his relations thrived when encountering fast ground but the ground has maybe gone against him and in favour of Century Dream and with James Doyle in the plate can  take this Group 3 Cazoo Diomed Stakes run over 9F and 13 yards. 

CENTURY DREAM  3 points win @3/1 BetVictor

 

Epsom 3.45

The Dash Handicap run over one of the fastest 5F in the land is a sight to see and once again there is a maximum field of 20 going to post. The draw is a strange one as it always used to be the low numbers on the far side that had the call but there has been times in recent years when it’s totally flipped and high have come out on top. Personally I would prefer a low number and in an open handicap my pin has fallen on the 2019 winner Ornate who flashed home from stall 2 that year off of a handicap mark of 99 and races here today off of 98 so David C Griffith’s 7 year old could be well treated. He teed up for this with a credible 8th of 11 in listed company last Saturday in the race won by Kings Lynn at Haydock and will appreciate the better ground here today. Shop around with the bookmakers with William Hill paying 6 places and Skybet 7 places. His regular pilot Phil Dennis is in the saddle. 

ORNATE 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/4th 12345 Bet365

 

Epsom 430

This year’s Cazoo Derby has attracted 12 quality colts going for glory over 1m 4F of this unique track. Aidan 0’Brien throw a curve ball when announcing that he will only be running just the one in Bolshoi Ballet. The last time he was represented by just a sole challenger was when Bolshoi Ballet’s sire Galileo won 20 years ago. He’s unbeaten in two trials in Ireland this season and is undoubtably the most likely winner but at around 5/4 and many firms paying extra places it may be wise to look elsewhere for some each way value. Mac Swiney brings classic winning form to the table having won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time and as dual Group 1 winner in heavy ground connections would of been delighted to have seen the rain that fell during Friday. He’s stepping up to 1m 4F for the first time and trained by the maestro Jim Bolger can run a big race. Godolphin saddle three with the pick being Hurricane Lane who won the traditionally best Derby trial, the Dante at York last time. He looks sure to run well stepping up in distance. The William Haggas trained Mohaafeth was an easy winner of a listed race at Newmarket last month. This represents a big step up in grade, his form has yet to be tested and he would of been the pick if the rain hadn’t arrived as he’s a better horse on genuine fast ground. With extra places around with bookmakers the best value looks to be Mac Swiney Each Way. 

MAC SWINEY 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 Boylesports

 

Epsom 5.15

The key piece of form to un ravelling this handicap appears to be the City And Surburban Handicap run over course and distance back in April. Group One Power won that by 3/4L from Soto Sizzler and has since gone on to run well when runner up to Louganini at Ascot. He has a solid chance but it’s the runner up that day Soto Sizzler that appeals to me on 4lb better terms. He has an excellent record at the track with form figures of 112 including this event 2 years ago and maybe he just didn’t stay 1m 6F last time when flopping at Newmarket. Trained in West Sussex by David Menuisier he will be ridden by Oisin Murphy who won him here back in April 2019 and looks decent each way value. Top weight Lost Eden is the least unexposed in the field but appears to have plenty of weight for his handicap debut. 

SOTO SIZZLER 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Epsom 5.50

 

The configuration of the track means that low numbers are always going to be favoured with the winning draw over the last 9 years coming from 4,7,10,6,7,4,15,4 and 5 so as you can see it maybe wise to concentrate on those drawn low. Top weight Danzeno is in stall 2 but we haven’t seen him for awhile and he’s overlooked. David Menuisier’s Atalanta’s Boy appeared better than ever when winning on his re-appearance at his favourite track Goodwood and although he’s racing off of his highest ever handicap mark here of 95 following a 4lb rise for that victory he’s favourably berthed in stall 6 and with his regular pilot Thomas Greatrex riding looks set to run a big race. There’s many others with chances and as always shop around for the firms paying extra places here in this 14 runner 86-105 sprint handicap that concludes this year’s Cazoo Derby meeting.

 

ATALANTA'S BOY 1 point each way 6/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

 

A disappointing day with a loss of 11.72 points with just two places from the 7 selections. 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

A disappointing day with a loss of 11.72 points with just two places from the 7 selections. 

racing looked poor for betting competitive this afternoon

Edited June 5, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Zilzalian]

8 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Horses do improve from 2 to 3 & fillies usually later in the season .

She seemed to act on the ground a lot better , if anyone was guilty of anything yesterday it was the clerk of the course declaring it good to soft when they were clearly going in a long way .

I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.

[The Equaliser]

20 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Epsom bets today

2.00 I like Patient Dream as it is a course winner, but I don't like the price as it has been smashed.  No value at best price 11/4; I'll Pass

2.35 Maamora (WB) £5 win at 5.2 for £20.58.  I suppose Statement may beat it but what the hec

3.10 Oh This Is Us (TM).  £4 matched at 4.1 3TBP for £12.15 profit.  I like the horse and it would seem a good bet for it to get within the first three at that price out of 7 runners.

3.45 Recon Mission (RD3) £2 win at 13.5 = £24.50 looks fair value

4.30 Bolshoi Ballet £2 win ins bet at 2.72 = £3.41 (I noticed that none of the Opening Show pundits selected the Aiden runner; ridiculous!).  Third Realm £1 win at 12/1 and a £2 place bet 3TBP at 3.7 = £5.29 profit

5.15 Group One Power looks good, but not for me at 2.72

5.50 Kimifive (OM) £3 win at 8.4 = £19.80 if wins and Lexington Dash (TM) £2 win at 7.00 Ins + Profit of £8.82 if it wins

Total stakes = £21 for Epsom today

Good luck to all today; should be a great day of entertainment come what may

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only This Is Us gave me a pay out.  Should have had at least a £1 win bet on it.  What a game horse it is.  With my other bets losing this created a loss of £4.85.  My new balance is £931.42 (Bank £1056.22)

 

[Wanderlust]

14 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.

It was me that brought up the subject of Snowfall for the ARC. I suggested the price (8/1 not 12/1) was good ew value. Its now best priced 5/1 and I stand by my opinion.

Serpentine won the Derby by 5 lengths..he didnt obliterate the field by 16 lengths!! No horse in classic history did what Snowfall did. Now I am not going to try and say it was the best field ever and as I said originally, probably half the field did not stay, but when you have a jockey like Frankie saying what he said about the horse ( paraphrasing, but in the same league as Enable), then that to me is something to hang your hat on. It wasnt the best Guineas and the Derby was probably worse, but I think that Snowfall is a special filly.

As for research done regarding horses improvement...Its just common sense that a horse generally improves from 2 to 3 and then 3 to 4. Anybody who follows racing would agree with that. 

The old saying..Opinions are like A### Holes.....Everybody has one.

[BBBC]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

Only This Is Us gave me a pay out.  Should have had at least a £1 win bet on it.  What a game horse it is.  With my other bets losing this created a loss of £4.85.  My new balance is £931.42 (Bank £1056.22)

 

@The Equaliser

i know this is a bit after the fact but sky had this race as an extra place one. With all the non runners it dropped down so they were still paying 3 places ew although they don't apply bog.

 As @MCLARKE recently stated where skybet gave offers they tend to be a bit skinny so its often best left to sp. As it was oh this is us ended up being a great bet.

I often look at the extra place angle as an opportunity for enhanced returns.

For instance today betfred have the 1605 with an extra place so paying 3 out of 7 with bog. I also like Buick's ride in that one.

 

 

[MCLARKE]

I am sure that horses improve as they get older but if they all improve then there is no real edge to be had. I believe that 5 is the optimum age for a flat horse.

It might be interesting to analyse based on the horse' s actual bithdate. A 2yo that is born on the 1st of January is actually a year old than one born on the 31st of December.

There is a similar impact with humans, where those born in September tend to do better than those born in August because they have a whole year more to grow and develop.

 

[calva decoy]

15 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.

What or where was the research you looked at ?

A.O'Briens string are some of the biggest improvers from 2/3 because they are forever looking for the next Galileo / Dubawi to keep their breeding machine ticking over & monopolising particularly UK & Irish racing .

Snowfall may have had a poor 2 year old career but she won the Musidora prior to The Oaks but the distance was freakish , will we see her after the end of this season or will she become a broodmare ?

Sir M Stoute is renowned for finding lots of improvement in his 4 year olds , it's maybe an individual training achievement that they all have or aim for .

Why are M.Johnston's 2 year olds mostly ready to win on their debuts whereas a lot of Newmarket trainers like to give there's time .

Breeding wise , why are War Fronts progeny better as 2/3 year olds than they are as 4/5 ? 

Lots of opinions which is healthy.

[Wanderlust]

On 6/6/2021 at 4:30 AM, Zilzalian said:

I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.

Snowfall won impressively enough, again, yesterday, to suggest she is a little bit better than a Handicapper!!

And the 3rd in the Derby, Hurricane Lane. Hasn't done too badly its last 2 runs.

[Villa Chris]

I’m not keen on betting on 2 year olds and 3 years olds. Its hard enough betting without having the added problem on which horse has improved and which one hasn’t progressed from a 2 year old. Who can and can’t go the distance. I prefer having a bit more info which I find with older horses that are 4,5, 6 etc you kind of get that.