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Racing Chat- Tue 16th March


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It’s finally here! They’ll be no spectators but it’s still the greatest National Hunt festival in the world and it’ll start on soft ground (good to soft in places) following another 10mm of rain on Sunday evening with a mostly dry forecast so we can expect the ground to be improving as we progress through the week. Here are my final thoughts on Day 1.
 
1.20
A disappointing turnout of only 8 (the smallest field ever!) and a short priced favourite in Appreciate It who is obviously the most likely winner. Better value may be deemed with the recent Henry De Bromhead acquisition Ballyadam who didn’t have the run of the race at Leopardstown behind the favourite and with the dead 8 declared appeals as a good ew bet.
 
BALLYADAM 1 point EW @ 13/2 Bet365 1/5th 123
 
1.55
A race to watch and savour. Shishkin has impressed me so much this season with his fluid and athletic jumping that I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t win this. We all know how the race will be played with Allmankind forcing the pace and hopefully Nicky Henderson’s gelding picking him up late. He’s a big odds on chance so this is a no bet race for me. Just sit back and enjoy it.
 
2.30
16 go to post for the Ultima Handicap but I actually don’t think it is as competitive as the numbers suggest! The favourite Happygolucky has the right credentials as a novice with course form and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him but he’s a general 7/2 shot and I’m looking for slightly better value with many firms paying enhanced place terms (Skybet are actually 7 places). The one I like is Harriet Graham’s Aye Right who’s kept the best handicap company all season and not been disgraced in any of his runs. I feel we’ll get a terrific run for our money with a horse who likes to race prominently and the jockey change of Dickie Johnson taking over from the suspended Callum Bewley is hardly a negative.
 
AYE RIGHT 1 point EW @ 6/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345
 
3.05
A good renewal of the Champion Hurdle and it’s the mares who are holding sway here. The 7lb allowance they get is a big advantage and something maybe that needs to be addressed. Honeysuckle is ten from ten, comes here with arguably her best ever run behind her when hacking up in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, has course form and is joint top officially rated. What’s not to like? For me she’ll take plenty of beating with possibly last years runner up Sharjah the best each way value with enhanced place terms (Hills are paying 5 places)
 
HONEYSUCKLE (below) 2 points win @ 15/8 Bet365
 
3.40
Willie Mullins has farmed this race over the years winning it 9 times and saddles the favourite in Concertista here who will be hard to beat. She bolted up in the mares novices hurdle at the meeting last season and is unbeaten in two starts since. She’ll be hard to fancy although there maybe some each way value in Henry De Bromhead’s mare Minella Melody who looks overpriced. It’s hard to believe she can beat Concertista as she’s finished behind her twice already this season but in the ‘betting without’ market she would be very appealing each way.
 
CONCERTISTA 2 points win @ 11/8 Paddy Power
MINELLA MELODY  1/2 point each way (betting with out fav.) @ 18/1 Bet365 /5th 123
 
4.15
The most competitive  race of the day and a real minefield for punters. Plenty have chances but I’m sticking with Dermot Welds challenger Coltor who comes here on the back of a Naas maiden hurdle victory (3rd won since) and wears a visor for the first time over hurdles (the only time he wore it on the flat was when he won his maiden). Jonjo O’Neill Jnr.  is a good booking and he’ll do for me once again shop around for the best place terms with the firms.
 
COLTOR 1 point EW @ 9/1 Bet365 1/4 12345
 
4.50
Royale Paigaille running in the Gold Cup has opened this up for Paul Nicholl’s Next Destination who has outstanding claims in a race which isn’t your typical NH Chase as only 13 have declared to run and all will be ridden by professional jockeys due to the ban on amateurs because of Covid. A classy individual who’s two from two over fences including in grade 2 company at Warwick last time when he won his race when his stamina kicked in over the last half a mile. Galvin has been trained for this and is an obvious danger.
 
NEXT DESTINATION 2 point win @ 3/1 Bet365

Honeysuckle.jpg

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I'll give the trends a run out although with the small fields I'm not sure how relevant they will be.

Supreme Novice Hurdle

83 have had forecast odds greater than 8/1 and only 1 has won.

4 out of 31 have been bred in France, the record for other counties is 3 from 77.

This leaves 1 selection, BLUE LORD, available at 10/1.

Arkle Novice Chase

All winners finished 1st last time. The other 36 runners all lost.

This leaves SHISKIN and ALLMANKIND.

There have been 4 runners at odds less than 5/2 and all have won.

This leaves SHISKIN at 8/15, skinny odds but looks like a banker (if there is such a thing!).

Ultima Handicap Chase

103 have had forecast odds greater than 14/1 and all have lost.

42 last ran more than 70 days ago and all have lost.

This leaves CEPAGE, DISCORDANTLY, ALNADAM, AYE RIGHT and ONE FOR THE TEAM.

58 didn't finish in the last 6 last time and all lost. This removes DISCORDANTLY.

Weight less than 11st 6lbs 3 from 112, above or equal to 11st 6lbs 4 from 46. This leaves CEPAGE and AYE RIGHT.

Horses finishing in 1st 3, 3 from 66, horses finishing 4th, 5th or 6th, 4 from 34.

This leaves CEPAGE at 25/1. 

Champion Hurdle

Quite simple this one.

Forecast odds less than 9/4 3 from 4, forecast odds greater or equal to 9/4 4 from 74.

This leaves HONEYSUCKLE at 7/4.

 

 

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9 hours ago, cannotbebeat said:

2.10  Southwell Blowing Dixie 11/8

2.55 Sedgefield Follow Your Fire 4/1

3.20 Southwell Everkyllachy 100/30

6.45 Newcastle Duesenburg 9/4

Good luck all CNBB. Don't forget the bread an butter racing.

Good shout !

Brian Hughes wants to retain his jockey title & snubs Cheltenham for Sedgefield where over the last 5 years his stats read 

75 wins from 332 a 21.25% win strike rate with a + LSP of £19.15 , he has 6 rides today .

145 Little Actress 5/1 bet365

220 Sabbahtical 11/8 bet365 

255 Getaway Jewel 4/1 bet365 

405 The Herds Garden 22/1 ew betfair 

435 Quick Pick 7/1 ew betfair 

505 Teasing Georgia 11/4 betvictor .

Southwell & Newcastle also accompany Sedgefield on Sky Sports Racing I'll be flicking straight over as soon as Cheltenham races are over in which i've only backed 3 in 2 races 

2.30 Milan Native 9/1 ew bet365

4.15 Riviere D'etel 12/1 ew bet365 ( 5 places 1/4 odds )

4.15 Glorious Zoff 18/1 ew bet365 ( 5 places 1/4 odds ) 

Always back Elliott's handicap horses at the festival .

3 so called good things 

Appreciate It , Shishkin & Concetista , which one WILL lose ?

 

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11 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Good shout !

Brian Hughes wants to retain his jockey title & snubs Cheltenham for Sedgefield where over the last 5 years his stats read 

75 wins from 332 a 21.25% win strike rate with a + LSP of £19.15 , he has 6 rides today .

145 Little Actress 5/1 bet365

220 Sabbahtical 11/8 bet365 

255 Getaway Jewel 4/1 bet365 

405 The Herds Garden 22/1 ew betfair 

435 Quick Pick 7/1 ew betfair 

505 Teasing Georgia 11/4 betvictor .

Southwell & Newcastle also accompany Sedgefield on Sky Sports Racing I'll be flicking straight over as soon as Cheltenham races are over in which i've only backed 3 in 2 races 

2.30 Milan Native 9/1 ew bet365

4.15 Riviere D'etel 12/1 ew bet365 ( 5 places 1/4 odds )

4.15 Glorious Zoff 18/1 ew bet365 ( 5 places 1/4 odds ) 

Always back Elliott's handicap horses at the festival .

3 so called good things 

Appreciate It , Shishkin & Concetista , which one WILL lose ?

 

This is tomorrow but there’s an Elliot horse I like the look of in the 4.15. Or Juana De Somoza 33/1 . Been running ok but looks the sort that’s been primed for a big run here . 

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10 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

This is tomorrow but there’s an Elliot horse I like the look of in the 4.15. Or Juana De Somoza 33/1 . Been running ok but looks the sort that’s been primed for a big run here . 

Have already backed stable mate & last year's winner Chosen Mate @12's each way , has 7Lb claimer who rides him out & home every day .

P.Niccholls has good record in this race ASHUTOR @28's with Betfair 6 places , with your tip being the bottom weight I've had a little at 33's , was 40's , good luck ?

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All prices Bet365:

1.20 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w Ballyadam @ 7/1

I'm hoping the ground turns out to be no worse than described as this one would have the best chance of turning the tables with Appreciate It on a sounder surface but still represents each-way value at 7/1 in my eyes. Travelled really well at Leopardstown but couldn't go with the favourite late on and the same might happen today but you'd think he'll be there or thereabouts and speed appears to be his strength, so if it isn't a slog I can see him going close.

1.55 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Captain Guinness @ 15/2

This has been billed the Shishkin show for a while and the absence of Energumene has only strengthened that but I don't think we've seen the best of Captain Guinness yet. He may not be good enough to beat Shishkin but it wouldn't surprise me if he gave him the most to do unless Allmankind puts in a faultless round of jumping from the front. Captain Guinness was unfortunate in the Supreme last year and has twice run well behind Energumene this season - looming up to trade an even money two starts back before giving best up the run-in and then falling at 2 out when going just as well as the winner last time. He's got a high cruising speed, jumps well in the main and definitely has plenty of class so with the ground a bit better than he's contested this season and that set to benefit him, I think at the least he has a solid chance of second. 

2.30 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w The Wolf @ 22/1

I do think Happygolucky is the one to beat but I don't want to get involved at 3/1 in such a race so have sided with The Wolf at a big price. His form is patchy and he'll have to step up here but has shown bits of pieces of form to suggest he can run well in this sort of event. He beat a host of 135-rated animals at Chepstow earlier in the season in a novice chase with his rivals going on to frank the form and then had an excuse at Exeter when making a bad mistake and suffering from a cut on his leg next time out. He hasn't shined particularly since but ran okay behind Chantry House at Wetherby last time over a trip short of his best and was eased up the run-in to exaggerate the losing margin. Was outspeeded that day but goes back up to a more suitable distance today and runs off 137 which - if at his best - he's capable of winning off. Jumps well in the main, is likely to go forward and hopefully can stay out of trouble and put pressure on those in behind.

3.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Sharjah @ 10/1

Again, Honeysuckle looks the one to beat but I don't think it's unfathomable that she gets beat so looking elsewhere for some each-way value. My heart would love to see Goshen land this but I think the make up of the race will suit the closers and Sharjah appeals as a bit of a dark horse. He's a patchy, inconsistent type but will no doubt be primed for this and would go close on his best form. With several front runners in the field it seems inevitable they'll go off hard and this one looks sure to be allowed to switch off in behind early. Has plenty of speed and I can see him travelling up strongly - will just be a case of if he's good enough to go on and pick them up, especially with the two market leaders also likely to sit and take a lead. At 10s though, I think he's got solid place claims and if the ground isn't too testing, can possibly cause a shock.

3.40 Cheltenham - 1pt win Indefatigable @ 28/1

Paul Webber's charge is fairly easy to back here but simply looks overpriced to me. Ran on strongly to win the Martin Pipe on the line last year and that makes her rating of 149 look about right. On that alone, she's the third highest-rated horse in the field and has had excuses this season. Ran in a 1m5f listed race on the flat to blow the cobwebs away and then didn't stay 3 miles at Kempton. Didn't run any sort of race last time but has had wind surgery since, returns to Cheltenham where she has a fine record and the ground shouldn't be too testing for her so whilst she has a bit to prove, 28/1 looks way too big for me for all it is a bit of a guessing game after last time out/the wind op.

4.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Her Indoors @ 28/1

Probably doesn't have the class of some of these but I like this one's attitude and racing style, which should stand her in good stead in a race like this. Only fairly moderate on the flat, she's taken to hurdles well - jumping and travelling well on her debut in this sphere at Aintree against some experienced jumpers to finish 2nd and then filled that place next time out too. The long straight at Doncaster played to her strengths last time out, keeping on powerfully to go clear from solid yardstick Talking About You and I don't think a mark of 127 is overly restrictive. She jumps well, appears versatile in terms of tactics and finishes off her races very well so an end-to-end gallop here should see her at her best. Again, any quickening of the ground can suit too and in an open race appeals at a big price.

4.50 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w The Mighty Don @ 40/1

The Mighty Don is an out and out stayer and that's obviously important in a contest like this. That said, he's not short of class either having beaten a now 143-rated horse in Enrilo on chasing debut before a solid second to Ultima favourite Happygolucky here a couple of starts later. Didn't lift a leg at Taunton on his latest run over fences which is a concern because he won't get away with that here but never jumped or travelled with any fluency. However, the better ground today will definitely suit and hopefully he can find a better rhythm here because he looks a prime contender for this sort of test. Might not have the class of a couple of these but is a guaranteed stayer in my eyes should he jump round safely and that makes him an each-way proposition at a huge price without a huge amount to find with most of these on figures. 

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todays top rated Cheltenham selections

13:20 Appreciate It (NB Ballyadam )
1:55 Shishkin (NB Franco De Port )
2:30 Happygolucky (NB Pym ) top score was Cepage rule out 23 days since last race
3:05 Honeysuckle ( = NB Epatante and Sharjah )
3:40 Concertista ( NB Roksana )
4:15 Her Indoors ( NB Sage Advice + Saint Sam ) a few others scored well but ruled out have run less than 30 days ago.
4:50 Next Destination ( NB Remastered highest score of race would not normally include as last run 24 days ago.)

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Have gone through the Cheltemham card this morning

1.20 Appreciate It £2.13 at 1.94 (insurance bet); Metier £2 win at 7.4 = £10.46 profit if win; B/E if Appreciate it wins.  £4.13 staked

1.55 Can't find a bet here with Sishkin at 1/2.  Could have dutched the second and third favourite but seems like throwing money away so I'll pass

2.30 Pym Nicky Henderson horse £1 win at 12/1

3.05 Epatante £3 win at 5.2.   I know it lost last time out but if anyone get a horse back on song it is Nicky Henderson; Aspire Tower 34p win at 28/1; James Du Berlais 33p win at 33/1 and Saldier 33p win at 100/1 for fun.  = £4 staked

3.40 Great White Shark £1 win at 20/1; Indefatigable £1 win at 28/1 and am trying to get a £2 win bet matched at 2.30 on Concertista, currently 2.22 for insurance = Poss £4 staked

4.15 Saint Sam £2.50 win at 6.2 & Houx Gris £2.50 win at 6.2 + 30p win on Coulter at 16/1 = £5.30 staked 

4.50 Galvin £2.50 win at 5.4 +30p ew 4 places at 28/1 on Ofalltheginjoints = £3.10 staked

Total stakes if all matched = £21.53 for an entertaining afternoon's racing

The remaining meetings do not look easy for my dutching type bets.  The 7.15 at Newcastle has possibilities; will look later

 

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8 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

1.20 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w Ballyadam @ 7/1

I'm hoping the ground turns out to be no worse than described as this one would have the best chance of turning the tables with Appreciate It on a sounder surface but still represents each-way value at 7/1 in my eyes. Travelled really well at Leopardstown but couldn't go with the favourite late on and the same might happen today but you'd think he'll be there or thereabouts and speed appears to be his strength, so if it isn't a slog I can see him going close.

1.55 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Captain Guinness @ 15/2

This has been billed the Shishkin show for a while and the absence of Energumene has only strengthened that but I don't think we've seen the best of Captain Guinness yet. He may not be good enough to beat Shishkin but it wouldn't surprise me if he gave him the most to do unless Allmankind puts in a faultless round of jumping from the front. Captain Guinness was unfortunate in the Supreme last year and has twice run well behind Energumene this season - looming up to trade an even money two starts back before giving best up the run-in and then falling at 2 out when going just as well as the winner last time. He's got a high cruising speed, jumps well in the main and definitely has plenty of class so with the ground a bit better than he's contested this season and that set to benefit him, I think at the least he has a solid chance of second. 

2.30 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w The Wolf @ 22/1

I do think Happygolucky is the one to beat but I don't want to get involved at 3/1 in such a race so have sided with The Wolf at a big price. His form is patchy and he'll have to step up here but has shown bits of pieces of form to suggest he can run well in this sort of event. He beat a host of 135-rated animals at Chepstow earlier in the season in a novice chase with his rivals going on to frank the form and then had an excuse at Exeter when making a bad mistake and suffering from a cut on his leg next time out. He hasn't shined particularly since but ran okay behind Chantry House at Wetherby last time over a trip short of his best and was eased up the run-in to exaggerate the losing margin. Was outspeeded that day but goes back up to a more suitable distance today and runs off 137 which - if at his best - he's capable of winning off. Jumps well in the main, is likely to go forward and hopefully can stay out of trouble and put pressure on those in behind.

3.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Sharjah @ 10/1

Again, Honeysuckle looks the one to beat but I don't think it's unfathomable that she gets beat so looking elsewhere for some each-way value. My heart would love to see Goshen land this but I think the make up of the race will suit the closers and Sharjah appeals as a bit of a dark horse. He's a patchy, inconsistent type but will no doubt be primed for this and would go close on his best form. With several front runners in the field it seems inevitable they'll go off hard and this one looks sure to be allowed to switch off in behind early. Has plenty of speed and I can see him travelling up strongly - will just be a case of if he's good enough to go on and pick them up, especially with the two market leaders also likely to sit and take a lead. At 10s though, I think he's got solid place claims and if the ground isn't too testing, can possibly cause a shock.

3.40 Cheltenham - 1pt win Indefatigable @ 28/1

Paul Webber's charge is fairly easy to back here but simply looks overpriced to me. Ran on strongly to win the Martin Pipe on the line last year and that makes her rating of 149 look about right. On that alone, she's the third highest-rated horse in the field and has had excuses this season. Ran in a 1m5f listed race on the flat to blow the cobwebs away and then didn't stay 3 miles at Kempton. Didn't run any sort of race last time but has had wind surgery since, returns to Cheltenham where she has a fine record and the ground shouldn't be too testing for her so whilst she has a bit to prove, 28/1 looks way too big for me for all it is a bit of a guessing game after last time out/the wind op.

4.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Her Indoors @ 28/1

Probably doesn't have the class of some of these but I like this one's attitude and racing style, which should stand her in good stead in a race like this. Only fairly moderate on the flat, she's taken to hurdles well - jumping and travelling well on her debut in this sphere at Aintree against some experienced jumpers to finish 2nd and then filled that place next time out too. The long straight at Doncaster played to her strengths last time out, keeping on powerfully to go clear from solid yardstick Talking About You and I don't think a mark of 127 is overly restrictive. She jumps well, appears versatile in terms of tactics and finishes off her races very well so an end-to-end gallop here should see her at her best. Again, any quickening of the ground can suit too and in an open race appeals at a big price.

4.50 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w The Mighty Don @ 40/1

The Mighty Don is an out and out stayer and that's obviously important in a contest like this. That said, he's not short of class either having beaten a now 143-rated horse in Enrilo on chasing debut before a solid second to Ultima favourite Happygolucky here a couple of starts later. Didn't lift a leg at Taunton on his latest run over fences which is a concern because he won't get away with that here but never jumped or travelled with any fluency. However, the better ground today will definitely suit and hopefully he can find a better rhythm here because he looks a prime contender for this sort of test. Might not have the class of a couple of these but is a guaranteed stayer in my eyes should he jump round safely and that makes him an each-way proposition at a huge price without a huge amount to find with most of these on figures. 

Not overly successful but quite nice to know the winners were either short priced or those I'd never pick on form so nothing got away really. Read a lot of the races right too with Ballyadam and Sharjah chasing home winners and Captain Guinness nearly doing the same. Indefatigable ran a cracker but only 4th which was a shame and even The Mighty Don put up a solid showing for all it was still an insufficient test for him as he just lacked the gears of those turning in.

Onto the next one...

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Spotted this 2 minutes before race thought it was worth a shout

Galvin To Win The 16:50 Cheltenham, Man City To Beat Mgladbach (90 Mins) & Real Madrid To Beat Atalanta (90 Mins)
12/1
Tuesday's Cross Sport Power Prices - Tuesday's Cross Sport Power Prices
16:50 Today
Power Price
Stake
£10.00
Potential Returns
£130.00

Nice end to the day.

Edited by cannotbebeat
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6 hours ago, cannotbebeat said:

Spotted this 2 minutes before race thought it was worth a shout

Galvin To Win The 16:50 Cheltenham, Man City To Beat Mgladbach (90 Mins) & Real Madrid To Beat Atalanta (90 Mins)
12/1
Tuesday's Cross Sport Power Prices - Tuesday's Cross Sport Power Prices
16:50 Today
Power Price
Stake
£10.00
Potential Returns
£130.00

Looks like you have got your Cheltenham money for the rest of the week.  Well done

 

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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Have gone through the Cheltemham card this morning

1.20 Appreciate It £2.13 at 1.94 (insurance bet); Metier £2 win at 7.4 = £10.46 profit if win; B/E if Appreciate it wins.  £4.13 staked

1.55 Can't find a bet here with Sishkin at 1/2.  Could have dutched the second and third favourite but seems like throwing money away so I'll pass

2.30 Pym Nicky Henderson horse £1 win at 12/1

3.05 Epatante £3 win at 5.2.   I know it lost last time out but if anyone get a horse back on song it is Nicky Henderson; Aspire Tower 34p win at 28/1; James Du Berlais 33p win at 33/1 and Saldier 33p win at 100/1 for fun.  = £4 staked

3.40 Great White Shark £1 win at 20/1; Indefatigable £1 win at 28/1 and am trying to get a £2 win bet matched at 2.30 on Concertista, currently 2.22 for insurance = Poss £4 staked

4.15 Saint Sam £2.50 win at 6.2 & Houx Gris £2.50 win at 6.2 + 30p win on Coulter at 16/1 = £5.30 staked 

4.50 Galvin £2.50 win at 5.4 +30p ew 4 places at 28/1 on Ofalltheginjoints = £3.10 staked

Total stakes if all matched = £21.53 for an entertaining afternoon's racing

The remaining meetings do not look easy for my dutching type bets.  The 7.15 at Newcastle has possibilities; will look later

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only one winner today which saved me from a complete whitewash.  This meant a loss of £6.12 on the day.  Not bad for all that entertainment.  My new balance is £583.01 (Bank £500).  Let's hope that I fare better tomorrow

 

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