Tennis Tips - February 1 - February 7

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Right, we have 7 tournaments to bet on this week. What a change, eh? 3 ATP events, 2 WTA events, 2 Challengers. Unfortunately, the bookies seem to be rather slow releasing the ATP odds.

[CzechPunter]

Li Tu to beat Pedro Sousa at 2.10 with Bet365

Bet365 have opened at 2.10 for Li Tu and I can't have that at all. He should be the slight favorite in this match imo. He's already played a good Australian event where he beat Polmans in the finals and you'd have to rate Polmans somewhat above Sousa on hard courts. Sousa can be great on clay, but he's yet to play a match this year and he had a poor showing in Australia last year, so I expect some issues for him. We're taking a player that's had plenty of match practice against decent opposition against a clay-court guy that will play his first match of the season. 2.10? I'll have some.

[CzechPunter]

....and you can now oppose that for an easy profit. Edit: Just for the record, I don't think that there's any value whatsoever in backing Li Tu at around 1.50. I'd rather be on Sousa at the current odds.

[Torque]

25pts Varvara Gracheva to beat Marketa Vondrousova @ 4.00 Bet365

Caution would seem to be the best strategy at this point given the unusual calendar and various players unable to practice due to quarantine, and it might even be best to leave everything alone this week and just watch. Even so, I can't ignore the price on Gracheva for her match against Vondrousova which I think should be shorter. The Russian is a promising young player and she has a win under her belt here already, plus Vondrousova prefers clay to hard courts.

[CzechPunter]

Right, so the guy choked the second set away and Sousa won on experience. I'm interested in quite a few speculative bets for today, but will make the call later on.

 

[darko08]

Vasek Pospisil (-2,5 Games) to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.72 with bet365

At first I have to say that Pospisil is one of the players that has been under a strict quarantine and this is one of the reasons why he's priced at these odds against Monteiro. IMO, even under these circunstances, Pospisil should win this one without problems. Pospisil had an impressive 2020. He reached the Final in Montpellier, beating Bedene, Shapovalov, Gasquet and Goffin. In the US Open he won against Raonic and Bautista and he reached the Final in his last tournament (Sofia), beating Marchenko, Struff, Millman and Gasquet, and losing the Final against Sinner (4-6, 6-3, 6-7). Monteiro has played 2 matches on this surface this year. He won against another clay court player, Bellucci, and lost against Isner, in Delray Beach. In 2020 he played 14 matches on hard with a 7-7 record but all those victories were against clay court players (Mayer, Coria and Clezar), low ranked players (Kozlov and Rai Ajeet) and a 15 years player (Nawaf). His only remarkable victory was against Norrie. I just can't imagine Pospisil losing this one, despite his lockdown.

[Heisenberg68]

Cilic looks great in Melbourne . We'll have to keep an eye on him

[darko08]

Garbiñe Muguruza (-4,5 Games) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with bet365

Last one. Muguruza's 2020 was impressive. She ended with a 23-7 record, including a Final in the AO, beating Svitolina, Bertens Pavlyuchenkova and Halep, all of them in straight sets. She started well this year, destroying Mladenovic (6-2, 6-4) and Sasnovich (6-1, 6-4), and lost in the third round against one of the most in form players righ now, Sakkari (5-7, 4-6). IMO the return of Conchita and her new mentality makes her a clear candidate to win everything here. Van Uytvanck is not at her best. She ended 2020 with a negative record (9-12). She has never achieved good results in Australia. In 2020, she was destroyed by Ferro (2-6, 1-6) in the AO, in the 1st round. She never has won a match in the AO or even a set (7 consecutive defeats by 2-0) and she has some big loses as a double 6-0 (vs Azarenka). As I said, looks like she never liked Australia conditions... I think this is one of those matches where the spaniard destroys her opponent, letting her with only 1-5 games won.

[darko08]

1 hour ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Cilic looks great in Melbourne . We'll have to keep an eye on him

Cilic is not trustable at all. He lost his last match against a 300 ranked player, in 2 sets... I need to see him winning some consecutive matches against good players in more than 1 tournament to trust him again. 

Opinions on the Pironkova-Serena match?¿ I have no intentions on betting on it because I haven't seen them, just for curiosity.

[vvararu]

56 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Cilic is not trustable at all. He lost his last match against a 300 ranked player, in 2 sets... I need to see him winning some consecutive matches against good players in more than 1 tournament to trust him again. 

Opinions on the Pironkova-Serena match?¿ I have no intentions on betting on it because I haven't seen them, just for curiosity.

Yeap. He had the match on the tip of his racket a couple of times (during tie-break) and he still lost. However, he did not look bad in rallies. Let's see who will be his next opponent (at AO). 

[vvararu]

I expect Seyboth Wild to recollect his clay abilities and win over Giustino, who is rather mediocre on clay @1.77 Unibet

[K8a]

5 hours ago, darko08 said:

Garbiñe Muguruza (-4,5 Games) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with bet365

Last one. Muguruza's 2020 was impressive. She ended with a 23-7 record, including a Final in the AO, beating Svitolina, Bertens Pavlyuchenkova and Halep, all of them in straight sets. She started well this year, destroying Mladenovic (6-2, 6-4) and Sasnovich (6-1, 6-4), and lost in the third round against one of the most in form players righ now, Sakkari (5-7, 4-6). IMO the return of Conchita and her new mentality makes her a clear candidate to win everything here. Van Uytvanck is not at her best. She ended 2020 with a negative record (9-12). She has never achieved good results in Australia. In 2020, she was destroyed by Ferro (2-6, 1-6) in the AO, in the 1st round. She never has won a match in the AO or even a set (7 consecutive defeats by 2-0) and she has some big loses as a double 6-0 (vs Azarenka). As I said, looks like she never liked Australia conditions... I think this is one of those matches where the spaniard destroys her opponent, letting her with only 1-5 games won.

I agree 1000% with your point of view. My only concern would be how much is she really Into the Yarra Valley for I would think she has her mind set at AO.

[darko08]

Aryna Sabalenka to win the 2nd quarter at 2.10 with bet365

Taking a look at this market this is the one i like the most for this tournament.

In the 1st quarter Halep is priced at 1.66 but she will have to face Swiatek or Alexandrova and she can lose against them, especially against the pole, who already beat her in the Final of RG by a 6-1, 6-2, so IMO there is no value on her at all at 1.66.

The 3rd quarter is the most unpredicatble because we have Svitolina (2.30) and Mertens (2.62), or even Ostapenko (6.50) and Garcia (8.00), who IMO can beat the first 2 players if they have a good day.

In the 4th quarter we have Naomi Osaka as the most favorite player (1.90) but I see some players there that can beat her, as Gauff (4.00), the player who pulled her off the AO in 2020 in 2 sets, or Konta (6.00).

In the 2nd quarter we have 2 big favorite players, Sabalenka (2.10) and Muchova (2.30), and then we have Kasatkina (8.50). Sabalenka is currently in a 15 winning streak. That winning streak started in Ostrava (Gauff, Sorribes, Brady and Azarenka). Then was Linz (Paolini, Voegle, Dodin, Krejcikova and Mertens) and finally Abu Dhabi (Hercog, Tomjlanovic, Jabeur, Rybakina, Sakkari and Kudermetova), where only Rybakina was capable of taking a set from her. Tomorrow she will play against Kanepi, the giant killer. Kanepi ended the last year winning a lot of matches but that was because she played ITF tournaments. If we take a look at how she did in big tournaments we'll see first round loses in Brisbane (vs Bouzkova), AO (vs Krejcikova) and two second round loses in the US Open (vs Jabeur) and RG (vs Mertens). She has struggled against Sharma in her first round here so I expect Sabalenka to beat her. In her second match she will face Kasatkina or Hercog. To be honest, I'm more afraid of Kanepi than these 2 players. Hercog was one of the players she beat in Abu Dhabi (7-6, 6-2) and Kasatkina lacks the power and the serve that is needed to beat the current version of Sabalenka. The final player she will face is Paolini or Muchova, most likely Muchova. I don't think Muchova is in a good form right now... She did nothing remarkable in 2020 and even she was very poor in Australia, losing in Brisbane in the first round against Riske (2-6, 4-6) and in the second round in the AO, against Bellis (4-6, 4-6). She has destroyed McNally (6-1, 6-1) in her first round here. Let's see if that winning streak can last at least for 3 more matches... 

@K8a It's very important to do well in these preparation tournaments to have a good run in the big one. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by darko08

[darko08]

I'm watching Pouille against Maden, I backed Pouille when he was 3-4 in the 1st set at 1.65, he looks so much better than he did against Horansky, very solid on serve. He has won the first one 7-5, if he chokes now I will put him on my blacklist which is leaded by Cilic 

[darko08]

@CzechPunter don't laugh cause i can see the choke coming! ?  Ohhh god... I can't believe it. What a change in regard with the first one, unbelievable? 

It finally ended well for me ? but I have to advise you something: don't bet on Pouille for the next rounds. He played a pretty decent first set but then he has been very insecure. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Dane Sweeney to beat Ji Sung Nam at 2.30 with William Hill

Sweeney is a glass cannon that can lose to anyone, but he tends to perform well on home ground and he looked surprisingly good in the AO qualifiers, so I think that there's some value in these odds. I'd have it 50/50 and it will be down to Sweeney, as Nam is an average player. Last year, Sweeney beat the likes of J-P Smith and Santillan, while he had two good performances against Copil and Stakhovsky in 2021 already. Slight value, but worth taking imo, let's hope it won't end like Li Tu.

Katie Boulter (+6) to beat Cori Gauff at 1.78 with Pinnacle

Gauff had a very long and tiring match against Teichmann yesterday, two TBs and she won't have that much time to recover. She's obviously the superior player of the two, but Boulter is capable of playing well and had an easy match yesterday, winning quickly as an underdog. She can play decent tennis and even troubled Svitolina in Australia last year if I remember correctly. If Gauff continues producing as many cheap mistakes as she did yesterday, Boulter will have every chance imo. The games handicap looks like the safest bet.

[Torque]

47 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Dane Sweeney to beat Ji Sung Nam at 2.30 with William Hill

Sweeney is a glass cannon that can lose to anyone, but he tends to perform well on home ground and he looked surprisingly good in the AO qualifiers, so I think that there's some value in these odds. I'd have it 50/50 and it will be down to Sweeney, as Nam is an average player. Last year, Sweeney beat the likes of J-P Smith and Santillan, while he had two good performances against Copil and Stakhovsky in 2021 already. Slight value, but worth taking imo, let's hope it won't end like Li Tu.

Katie Boulter (+6) to beat Cori Gauff at 1.78 with Pinnacle

Gauff had a very long and tiring match against Teichmann yesterday, two TBs and she won't have that much time to recover. She's obviously the superior player of the two, but Boulter is capable of playing well and had an easy match yesterday, winning quickly as an underdog. She can play decent tennis and even troubled Svitolina in Australia last year if I remember correctly. If Gauff continues producing as many cheap mistakes as she did yesterday, Boulter will have every chance imo. The games handicap looks like the safest bet.

I like the Gauff fade. She had real problems getting it done yesterday so maybe she's found the lockdown difficult, then there's the fatigue factor which might come into it as you say. 

[darko08]

BTW, I also like Pavlyuchenkova to win against Sevastova. Pavlyuchenkova loves Australia conditions. In 2020 she reached the QF of the AO, beating Stojanovic, Townsend, Karolina Pliskova and Kerber. She lost against Muguruza. I still rememeber that match... She lost because Muguruza destroyed her everytime she played with second serves... but despite that she played well and troubled Muguruza so much. In 2019 she also reached the QF, beating Puig, Bertens, Sasnovich and Stephens. In her first round here she has destroyed Doi (6-1, 6-4). Sevastova is in a very bad form... she ended 2020 with a negative record (6-13), including a 1-9 on hard courts... she even lost 6-1, 6-1 against Tomjlanovic in the AO...! And she also lost in the first round in Brisbane (vs Kenin) and Adelaide (vs Vekic). She also lost in the 1st round in Dubai against Vondrousova (3-6, 2-6), in Doha against Kontaveit (4-6, 6-7) and in Cincinnati against Mladenovic (3-6, 4-6). Her only match won on hard was in the US Open against Gauff, in a 3 set match drama. After that she lost in 2 sets against Kostyuk. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Badosa. She has won her first match here against Brengle (6-4, 6-2) but she's in a very bad form and everyone who has watched her recently will know... IMO Pavlyuchenkova should win this match, she's overall in better form and the conditions favor her so much more than Sevastova. Another interesting fact is that Pavlyuchenkova leads the h2h with Sevastova by a 7-0...! and Sevastova has only won 2 sets on those 7 matches... Pavlyuchenkova to beat Sevastova is paid at 1.42 with betfair

Edited February 1, 2021 by darko08

[Torque]

Not much time so just a few words about my bets, all with 365. I'm backing underdogs across the board, although so far it looks as though plenty of favourites have been winning. Despite that, with so much uncertainty right now I'd rather take my chances with players that aren't expected to win.

First off, I'm backing Berrettini to beat Thiem. He's beaten the Austrian on hard before, and if he can get his serve going he could be hard to break which will improve his chances. Next I'm tailing @CzechPunter and backing Sweeny to beat Ji Sung Nam - I agree it looks a coin-flip. Then I'm going to swerve the sensible option of Boulter on a plus against Gauff, and back the Brit to get the win. Gauff was very inconsistent against Teichmann - might even have lost - whereas Boulter got a solid win. I'm also taking a chance on Cornet against Osaka, as Cornet is the type of player who can step up and win against a top player. I also like the look of Sevastova against Pavlyuchenkova - sorry @darko08but at least one of us is guaranteed to win. Sevastova has the craft and guile to negate the power of Pavlyuchenkova, plus Pav laboured a little bit in the last round after a strong start. Finally, and this really is taking a punt, I'm going to have a small stake on Bogdan to beat Barty. Barty has been out of action for so long - not including the recent exo - that I couldn't back her in this match. Bogdan has had some success in Australia in the past and whilst I fully expect Barty to win, at the price I have to side with Bogdan.

10pts Berrettini to beat Thiem @ 3.25

15pts Sweeny to beat Ji Sung Nam @ 2.25

20pts Boulter to beat Gauff @ 6.50

5pts Cornet to beat Osaka @ 5.50

20pts Sevastova to beat Pavlyuchenkova @ 3.50

5pts Bogdan to beat Barty @ 9.00

[ElPrincipito007]

I opt for Muguruza AH -1.5 sets @1,9 (Betfirst)

Just a bit worried as Van Uytvanck did already play a match here.

[CzechPunter]

Right. I was mightily impressed by Berrettini against Thiem, he was incredible. Sweeney won in two after some adventures and Boulter actually came back to win as well, so 2/2. Will post my picks for today later.

[darko08]

Danielle Collins to beat Karolina Pliskova at 2.62 with bet365

I like Collins for this match. She loves Australia conditions, here is where she has displayed her best tennis ever. In 2019 she reached the SF of the AO, beating Goerges, Vickery, Caroline García, Kerber and Pavlyuchenkova. She finally lost against Kvitova. The last year she lost in the 2nd round (vs Putintseva) but she destroyed Svitolina (6-1, 6-1) and Putintseva (6-1, 6-0) in Brisbane, and Sasnovich (6-3, 6-2), Kenin (6-3, 6-1) and Bencic (6-3, 6-1) in Adelaide, losing the SF in a 3 set match against Barty, decided by a close TB. In her 2 first matches here she has won against Bonaventure (6-3, 6-3) and Stojanovic (6-2, 6-1). As I said before, here is where Collins' game suits more and I can't imagine Pliskova winning this easily. The czech player has won against Cocciaretto in her 1st match here (6-3, 6-2). She had un unexpected 2nd round loss against Gasanova in Abu Dhabi. She won in Brisbane the last year and she only won a couple of matches in the AO (vs Siegemund and Mladenovic) before losing against Pavlyuchenkova in 2 sets. She's the favorite player but I think she's not at her best and I see clear value on Collins at these odds.

@ElPrincipito007 There was no need to worry, mate. Muguruza looks great and Van Uytvanck never did well here... 

I have not watched Sabalenka. It really pisses me off when these kind of long term bets are lost just in the first match... IMO her chances for the AO have decreased a lot... we'll see..

[vvararu]

Kanepi was on a 11 winning strike as well so, no big surprise 

[darko08]

Last one for me.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+1.5 Sets) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.90 with Pinnacle

I was waiting to see the odds for this match and I think Pavlyuchenkova is a little bit underrated. Muguruza has destroyed Van Uytvanck (6-2, 6-0) while Pavlyuchenkova has destroyed Doi (6-1, 6-4) and Sevastova (6-0, 6-3). None of them has been really tested yet. As I said before, Muguruza reached the Final in the AO the last year, beating Pavlyuchenkova on the way in the QFs (7-5, 6-3). It was a close match, Pavluchenkova played well but her second serves were well attacked by Muguruza (3-21...). I don't expect this to happen again. I think this will be a long match and I think the russian player can win the match or take a set, at least... I know I have said several times how good Muguruza looks but I think the same from Pavluchenkova and Australia is where she feels better (she has reached the QFs of the AO 3 times in the last 4 years, not bad at all...).

@vvararu yep, tell the name of the players that she beat on that winning streak ?

[vvararu]

@darko08 agree. Didn't observe 

[darko08]

Ann Li to beat Ellen Perez at 1.53 with betfair

I know I'm posting a lot of bets but we have 3 WTA events and 3 ATP events so what do you expect...? Tomorrow begin the Grampians Trophy, a tournament for the players who have been under a hard quarantine. I like Ann Li chances for this match. She did really well in 2020, ending with a 18-10 record on hard courts. She won an ITF tournament she played in November in Tyler, Texas. It was an ITF tournament but she beat good players there as Clara Tauson, Greet Minen and Kostyuk in the Final. She even won a couple of matches in the US Open. She won against Arantxa Rus and then she destroyed Alison Riske (6-0, 6-3). I watched the whole match and she was impressive... After that she lost in the 3rd round against Kerber (6-3, 6-4). I also watched that match and IMO the result did not reflect how the match really was. Li did not play as good as she did against Riske but she put Kerber in troubles. In Cincinnati she won against Diyas and Kuzmova, both in straight sets, but lost against Muchova (4-6, 4-6). She also played the AO, winning the qualy against Sherif, Wickmayer and Bogdan. After that she won against Cabrera in the 1st round but then lost against Kenin (6-3, 6-1). Perez did nothing remarkable in 2020. She lost in the 1st match of the qualy of the AO against Wickmayer (7-6, 6-1), a player that then was beat by Ann Li, easily (6-3, 6-2). IMO, there is a big difference between these players right now and the only concern I have is that Li has not played any match this year while Perez has played 2 matches. She won against Dolehide in a 3 set match but then lost against Lepchenko, also in 3 sets. That was in the qualy of the AO, played in Dubai. Anyway, Ann Li has progressed a lot during the last year and IMO there is a big difference right now between her and Perez.

[CzechPunter]

Petra Kvitova to beat Nadia Podoroska 2-0 at 1.85 with William Hill

There's not much that I like honestly, but I settled on this one. Kvitova had a good level against Venus, they were both pummeling the ball and she'll get less pressure today. Podoroska will run all day long, she's great at that, but Kvitova has the right game for putting her away - and she will put her away if she plays like she did against Venus. She used to hate Australia, but she looks good in these conditions and this match-up should be right up her alley honestly.

[CzechPunter]

Kamil Majchrzak to beat Botic Van De Zandschulp at 1.80 with Unibet

Also adding this one. Majchrzak is the better player in my book and Botic wasn't in control against Schoolkate in the first round. He's a glass cannon with a big serve, but his ground game lacks control and he's also not mentally tight. Majchrzak beat a tricky opponent in Djere and looks like a decent favorite to me in this contest.

[Torque]

Two more dogs for me today. First I'm backing Shapovalov to beat Sascha, as I thought he did well against Djokovic. If Sascha still has serving gremlins that will certainly help. I'll also follow @darko08 with a bet on Pavlyuchenkova. She wiped the floor with Sevastova and when a player is in form like that, it can pay to back them next up against a higher-profile player.

20pts Shapovalov to beat A. Zverev @ 2.15 Boylesports

20pts Pavlyuchenkova to beat Muguruza @ 3.00 Bet365

Edited February 3, 2021 by Torque