Racing Chat - Wednesday 28th October

[ipswich45]

Fakenham
13.02 Doc De Bourbon for the Paul Nichols stable finished 9th in a bumper last time out and has been beatern by 13 lenghts total in both, has since had a wind op and should go well, however my selection is for Plenty In The Tank for Olly Murphy having won a Chepstow bumper a year ago and was sold for £75,000 in November and has since had wind op    - Selection: Plenty In The Tank

14.32 Vinnie's Getaway won a bumper has since been placed on all 3 starts over hurdles for Olly Murphy recent run at Ludlow saw him beat by 4 lengths but is up in trip and with a claimer on the back taking 7 off could well be the answer  - Selection: Vinnie's Getaway

Kempton
17.15 Accrington Stanley who are they? credible 2nd at Chelmsford earlier this month over 7 furlongs and with cheekpeices on this time and shorter distance this time 6 furlongs could again finish in the prize money, Grey Sparkle won last week over course and distance and does carry a penalty here for that could go well again, it may also be worth keeping an eye on Arion Fox for Roger Varian finished 6th at Lingfield last time in a weaker race -  Selection: Grey Sparkle

19.15 Really Super has won 1 and placed 1 from the 2 runs so far this year, won last time out at Chelmsford 41 days ago for Amy Murphy could be the one to beat here, Imperium last won in June at Lingfield and followed that up with a 3rd place at Haydock 33 days ago in a handicap should make the top 3 again, Indigo Times has won last 2 races including 20 days ago at Chelmsford in 6 runner race, Oisin has the ride tonight and should go well yet again   - Selection: Really Super

Nottingham
13.15 A very tricky race this one, So I Told You  is a C&D winner last Autumn in testing muddy ground given the weather in last 24hours conditions could be on the heavy side so does have good claims with William Buick on board , Flying West is coming in for a hat-trick of wins and has  Tom Marquand on for this, last win Yarmouth in heavy ground  should give a good account, Espresso Freddo is another interesting runner won 9 days ago at Windsor easily and carries a 5lb penalty for that in this race JP Spencer rides  - Selection: So I Told You but any of the 3 could win this
 

[Wildgarden]

815 kempton let rip Betfair so - win and place (bookies are 2 points below current offered price Betfair atm) 

Down in trip in a larger field with decent claimer giving 5lbs. I know the trainer only has 1 win from 39 all weather but I'll discount that for this one with not enough data that side of things and could be turn around against younger field.

[Darran]

4.10 Taunton

I am really pleased to see they are going handicapping with Earth Leader because I really do think he is very well handicapped off a mark of 117. I don't know if this was always the plan or if things changed after the sad death of his former trainer, but he is now with Harry Fry. To be fair he can still go hunter chasing and I would have given him a big chance at Aintree in April if Covid hadn't stopped racing. I'd ignore his last run as to me he didn't stay as well as the winner in the heavy ground and he travelled just as well as Virak up until his stamina gave weigh. I'd probably have liked to have seen him over 2m6f, but just under 3m should be fine. The weather is a bigger concern as rain is forecast, but the ground is good to firm, good in places so it would need a lot to make it totally bottomless and I suspect they would pull him out if it did get too testing. The bookies haven't missed him sadly, but if I am right about him being as good as I think he is then he ought to win this if he is ready 1st up. 

 

I am also going to cover Dido e/w. I put him up a couple of times over the summer and he landed the e/w money both times. They dropped him down in trip to 2m last time and he didn't have the pace at the end of the race. Despite him winning over 3m in points I always thought he needed shorter, but the way he is running suggests he needs this sort of trip to be seen at his best. Chances are he is bumping into one here, but if Earth Leader needs the run then Dido is well enough handicapped to win. He also wouldn't want a lot of rain.

 

Earth Leader @ 11/4 with Bet365

Dido e/w @ 10/1 with BetVictor

[Striker]

Good luck today

Couple of each way plays in Hong Kong today on horses well overdue a victory

12.45-Brave King @ 10-1

1.15-California Legend @ 8-1...4 places

Both with Skybet

[richard-westwood]

150 nott

Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really  fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew 

Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places 

[richard-westwood]

445 Kemp 

Lynn's boy  233 

Top time  232 

Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about 

Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic 

2pt win double with above race 

[ChasingDreams]

13.25 - Punchestown - Dime A Dozen @ 15/2

Consistent chaser DIME A DOZEN who won a maiden at Tipperary in July and also landed a Gowran handicap hurdle earlier this month gets the vote and he ought to be on the premises once more on current form. Major player.

14.25 Punchestown - Gotthenod (EW) @ 16/1

Course winner GOTTHENOD who last month ran a blinder when first of 17 here (2m, Soft) gets the nod. Consistent this season with 2 wins from 5 runs and good fifth of 9 in handicap hurdle (7/1) at Cork (19f, good) 10 days ago. Soft surface will help her chances so can make presence felt. Interesting.

16.10 Taunton - Earth Leader @ 11/4

The most interesting of these is EARTH LEADER (Nap). The seven-year-old racked up a six-timer between the flags prior to finishing a well-beaten second in a Wincanton hunter chase, unsuited by testing conditions when losing his unbeaten record that day. He has since joined Harry Fry, and a mark of 117 could be lenient. Back over more ideal conditions today and a prolific winner for Rose Loxton so is very much of interest on handicap chase debut for respected new yard and is the one to beat.

Prices with Hills

?

 

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

150 nott

Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really  fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew 

Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places 

 

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

445 Kemp 

Lynn's boy  233 

Top time  232 

Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about 

Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic 

2pt win double with above race 

Picked a couple of strange races there Richard
If I was playing the Nott'm race I  would be dutching my 2 selections for the win
Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1
ATM No bet for me in either race .
G'Luck with your selections

[richard-westwood]

19 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

 

Picked a couple of strange races there Richard
If I was playing the Nott'm race I  would be dutching my 2 selections for the win
Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1
ATM No bet for me in either race .
G'Luck with your selections

Its my last day off work and I've rated the hcaps and they are all too close ....these 2 races popped up from the class system so I thought what the hell a bit of interest this afternoon once I've got my jobs done lol ......I'm just interested to see how they run ...they are both tough races but the ratings give them lively chances if they can both translate back to all weather which is a big factor ...I'm sensing a case of seconditis ?....nooooooooo

Edited October 28, 2020 by richard-westwood

[Darran]

40 minutes ago, ChasingDreams said:

13.25 - Punchestown - Dime A Dozen @ 15/2

Consistent chaser DIME A DOZEN who won a maiden at Tipperary in July and also landed a Gowran handicap hurdle earlier this month gets the vote and he ought to be on the premises once more on current form. Major player.

14.25 Punchestown - Gotthenod (EW) @ 16/1

Course winner GOTTHENOD who last month ran a blinder when first of 17 here (2m, Soft) gets the nod. Consistent this season with 2 wins from 5 runs and good fifth of 9 in handicap hurdle (7/1) at Cork (19f, good) 10 days ago. Soft surface will help her chances so can make presence felt. Interesting.

16.10 Taunton - Earth Leader @ 11/4

The most interesting of these is EARTH LEADER (Nap). The seven-year-old racked up a six-timer between the flags prior to finishing a well-beaten second in a Wincanton hunter chase, unsuited by testing conditions when losing his unbeaten record that day. He has since joined Harry Fry, and a mark of 117 could be lenient. Back over more ideal conditions today and a prolific winner for Rose Loxton so is very much of interest on handicap chase debut for respected new yard and is the one to beat.

Prices with Hills

?

 

Earth Leader won 2 hunter chases as part of the six timer

[yossa6133]

Ryan Moore booked for Athletico! Surely this horse will win again one day?! 46 runs since his last win, but loads of good efforts in there. I can't back it at 11/4 but hope he gets his head in front.

[ChasingDreams]

2 minutes ago, Darran said:

Earth Leader won 2 hunter chases as part of the six timer

 

Very much the one to beat if fitness is up to scratch Darran. 11/4 a decent price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All odds Bet365:

1.02 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Rock The House @ 25/1

This one is the yard's second string here but I think he's capable of running better than a 25/1 shot after a couple of promising efforts in bumpers. Traded as low as 2/1 in the run despite being sent off at 20/1 on debut, just fading late on and shaped as if in need of the run when returning recently - not beaten too far having made the running. Should strip fitter now and his only half-sibling is a 134-rated jumper so there's hope in the pedigree too and all in all I just think 25s is a bit big.

1.15 Nottingham - 1pt e/w So I Told You @ 10/1

Headstrong sort but does have plenty of ability and definitely it's the right move to bring him back down to a mile after some efforts over middle distances. Still pulled his chance away at Windsor last time under similar conditions to these but that was a small field affair and there's optimism that a better gallop today will help him settle a bit better and less demanding ground can help conserve enough energy for the business end. Big price if he can put it all together today.

1.40 Taunton - 1pt e/w Solstalla @ 18/1

Seems a big price considering she won really well two starts back and suffered a cut to her leg last time out. She's run well on all previous visits to Taunton and whilst not thrown in at the weights, looks capable of bouncing back under ideal conditions so long as there's no lasting damage.

2.02 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Talking About You @ 20/1

Appreciate he has a penalty to carry here but the drift out to 20/1 seems huge if he's good to go here. He's nothing special but knows his job and has hacked up in a juvenile hurdle already in his career. Did the donkey work for a couple of good horses two starts back and was bogged down in soft conditions last time having raced keenly on the front end. That's how he races but he'll know his job here more than a lot of his rivals, he's likely to jump off in front, the better ground suits and if there's a track for a free-racing front runner, it's Fakenham, so 20/1 looks huge if a little disconcerting. 

2.20 Nottingham - 2pts win Show Palace @ 11/2

Surely today is the day for Show Palace. Been threatening to win all season but a combination of being chinned late on, not having any sort of run, injuring his leg and coughing in its last four runs have stopped him from doing so. Has dropped another couple of pounds in the handicap. has absolutely perfect conditions here and so long as he's not still suffering from any of those ailments, should go very close indeed.

2.40 Taunton - 1pt e/w Comeragh Lad @ 66/1

This is a poor race and whilst not showing a great deal at Exeter last time, Comeragh Lad is bred to stay and that was evidenced in some fair runs in the point to points over 3 miles. Wasn't beaten a million miles over 2m2f on its run over hurdles and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark up in trip which promises to suit. In a weak race I thought he had some scope to improve for the stamina test and is worth a quid at huge odds.

[Valiant Thor]

Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

150 nott

Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really  fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew 

Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places 

Effectively 5lbs worse off because it had a very good claimer on board last time.  What do I know; I'm going for Bedford Flyer with William Buick aboard.  Good luck though

[harrisman]

Auteuill 12.30

 

Zizaneur. 1pt ew 8/1 Hills

An interesting midweek card in Paris and the selection is the Philip Hobbs trained Zizaneur. Very uninspiring recent figures featuring numerous unseat and PU esp in chases. However a mitigating thought I would throw in is that he's been ridden by his owner Mr David Maxwell. You most definitely can't doubt his love, bravery, enthusiasm and commitment to the NH game however being diplomatic he wouldn't be in my top 20 amateurs over the jumps. And interestingly this time he is ridden by the superb James Reveley (only ride on card) back over hurdles. There's certainly some snatches of back class going back just to last year when he was beaten into 2nd (as 2nd favourite) by Christopher Wood , now rated much higher, and in May last year was deemed good enough to be entered in a 65k+ listed hurdle at this track. If he can run to anywhere near his mark he could make a mockery of his price. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wildgarden]

6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Effectively 5lbs worse off because it had a very good claimer on board last time.  What do I know; I'm going for Bedford Flyer with William Buick aboard.  Good luck though

In a sprint race I don't think weight is as such an influence more the class grade and speed rating imo

[The Equaliser]

Gone for some singles today

1.15 Nott Sword Beach (JF 10%) £1 win at 7/1 : fancied runners up in class

1.50 Nott Bedford Flyer (WB 21%) £2 win at 10/3 = £8.67

2.20 Nott Helvetian (WB 21%) £1 win at 13/2 = £7.50

2.50 Nott Multellie (EMc 7lbs recent winner) £1 win at 9/1

3.20 Nott Tinnahalla (WB 21%) £2 win at 7/2
3.20 Nott Little Tipsy (JM 17%) 30p win at 80/1

3.50 Nott Thorntoun Care (Ms A C 5lbs claimer) £1 win at 7/1

3.50 Nott Champaign Castle (SB) 30p win at 28/1

4.20Nott N Over J (SB) £1 win at 14/1

= £9.60 total singles stakes

Hopefully back later for Kempton selections

=============================================================================================================

None of my selections won today so a £9.60 loss on the day.  This brings my balance to £155.39 (£400 Bank)

I need to spend more time with my lay betting strategy so I will probably only post up a £1 Trixie with three £2 win bets from tomorrow.  May include the odd outsiders for very small stake money though

 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[LEE-GRAYS]

Dodgy j.p murtagh night  dundalk

16-25 scherbatsky 22/1

17-30 dreadful  25/1

18-30 enchanted one sp

all bets 50p e/w coral

[harrisman]

1 hour ago, harrisman said:

Auteuill 12.30

 

Zizaneur. 1pt ew 8/1 Hills

An interesting midweek card in Paris and the selection is the Philip Hobbs trained Zizaneur. Very uninspiring recent figures featuring numerous unseat and PU esp in chases. However a mitigating thought I would throw in is that he's been ridden by his owner Mr David Maxwell. You most definitely can't doubt his love, bravery, enthusiasm and commitment to the NH game however being diplomatic he wouldn't be in my top 20 amateurs over the jumps. And interestingly this time he is ridden by the superb James Reveley (only ride on card) back over hurdles. There's certainly some snatches of back class going back just to last year when he was beaten into 2nd (as 2nd favourite) by Christopher Wood , now rated much higher, and in May last year was deemed good enough to be entered in a 65k+ listed hurdle at this track. If he can run to anywhere near his mark he could make a mockery of his price. 

 

Congratulations to connections for a very smart piece of placing! And yet another superb well judged ride from Reveley in Paris. Would have been entertaining to eavesdrop on the post race communications between jockey and owner(previous jockey)! 

 

 

 

[Valiant Thor]

3 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.

6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
That didn't go according to plan
5pts ew Lady Pendragon 8/1 in the last @ Kemp

[yossa6133]

Dreal Deal just won with stones in hand at Punchestown, must have been the biggest certainty in history at Navan off 84.

[Valiant Thor]

9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

445 Kemp 

Lynn's boy  233 

Top time  232 

Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about 

Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic 

2pt win double with above race 

mugged again
Illes Memories missed the break so there was no danger there, winner wasnt even on he radar

[richard-westwood]

Just now, Valiant Thor said:

mugged again
Illes Memories missed the break so there was no danger there, winner wasnt even on he radar

Same as yesterday both mugged by an outsider but on a normal day they would have won so they ran well 

[Valiant Thor]

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

Same as yesterday both mugged by an outsider but on a normal day they would have won so they ran well 

[Wildgarden]

21 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

815 kempton let rip Betfair so - win and place (bookies are 2 points below current offered price Betfair atm) 

Down in trip in a larger field with decent claimer giving 5lbs. I know the trainer only has 1 win from 39 all weather but I'll discount that for this one with not enough data that side of things and could be turn around against younger field.

Just to say took unreal price of 17-1 on Betfair earlier now 10-1 Betfair ? hopefully comes good.

[Wildgarden]

23 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

815 kempton let rip Betfair so - win and place (bookies are 2 points below current offered price Betfair atm) 

Down in trip in a larger field with decent claimer giving 5lbs. I know the trainer only has 1 win from 39 all weather but I'll discount that for this one with not enough data that side of things and could be turn around against younger field.

Close race, near end made late headway too little too late didn't manage to place one to watch out for.

[Striker]

On 10/28/2020 at 6:16 AM, Striker said:

Good luck today

Couple of each way plays in Hong Kong today on horses well overdue a victory

12.45-Brave King @ 10-1

1.15-California Legend @ 8-1...4 places

Both with Skybet

Both unplaced...Brave should have placed but got a poor ride from Badel