Racing Chat - Saturday 5th September

[Darran]

Again plenty of cracking action in Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday morning with plenty of Group racing to look forward to. Race 4 at Randwick sees the return of the world's best sprinter Nature Strip (yes he is better than Battash) as he works up towards The Everest next month. He's obviously very short, but his 1st up record isn't actually that good and if he does get beat tomorrow I wouldn't be too worried. He has looked very good in his trials though so hopefully we will see him win. I have bets in 7 races 5 at Moonee Valley and 2 at Randwick. As I currently write Oddschecker are missing all the Australian meetings so I have just used Bet365 prices, but better might be available elsewhere. Hopefully Oddschecker will sort the issue out as I have asked them to. Also hopefully I can see an improvement profit wise as the last two weeks have not been good sadly.

 

Moonee Valley R1 (3.30am)

I like the claims of How Womantic here as she makes her return. She won her first 4 races which included a G3 win at Caulfield. Her only defeat was last time at Flemington in a G2, but she was caught wide there from a bad draw and had no cover and it certainly looked a run you could forgive. She's got a great draw tomorrow and I think she can continue her progression as she drops back down into handicap company.

 

How Womantic @ 2.80 with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R2 (4.05am)

I am putting up ex UK horse Skyman here. He was due to run in a race here a couple of weeks ago, but was called off. It looked a very tough race for him though and this contest at this stage looks more suitable for him. He has won both his Australian starts and looks very progressive. He beat a fellow import last time and that horse has since bolted up in a race at Sandown. There are a couple of slight concerns about him as he doesn't have a great draw and will probably have to come from quite far back which given the nature of the track isn't ideal. In my view though he is better than this grade and those concerns are factored into his price so I am prepared to back him.

 

Skyman @ 6.50 win and 2.38 place with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R4 (5.15am)

Given his main rival Shot Of Irish looks so much better on a wet track I think Junipal looks a real solid chance here. His run 1st up was a cracking effort given horses were struggling to come from behind that afternoon and he ran on well to finish 3rd to Showmanship which looks really good form. Apart from the winner he had the fastest last 200m in the race. All his wins have been over this trip so the extra 200m is going to be right up his street. He's a course and distance winner as well.

 

Junipal @ 2.50 with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R8 (7.45am)

A G2 contest here which sees the return of Harbour Views and Surprise Baby. Harbour Views has been talked up as a Cox Plate contender although he was a bit disappointing a couple of times last prep and I prefer the chances of Surprise Baby. He was last seen running a really good race when 5th in the Melbourne Cup. He had a terrible draw in 20 that day and that poor draw probably got him beat. Obviously this race is half the distance of the Melbourne Cup, but he ran a really good race in it last year when 4th in what was a stronger renewal. He has only had 11 starts, but in his 5 wins he has won over trips from 1200m to 3200m so the trip doesn't concern me. Connections are suggesting he is ready to run a big race even though the Melbourne Cup is clearly is main target and I take him to make a winning return.

 

Surprise Baby @ 2.80 with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R9 (8.20am)

If Rivet Dancer wins this after putting him up the last twice I will be annoyed, but I prefer the chances of Dabiyr. He has plenty in his favour. He is 2/2 at the track and 3/3 2nd up. His 1st run of the prep saw him finish 3rd at Flemington in a really strong contest. The step up to this trip is much more suitable for him and Craig Williams should be able to get him settled just behind the leaders and hopefully he will be too strong for them in the straight.

 

Dabiyr @ 3.00 with Bet365

 

Randwick R5 (5.35am)

An open contest this, but I think ex UK horse Across Dubai is worth backing here. William Haggas used to train him over here and he won on his last race at Chelmsford in a Class 2 a couple of years ago. He wasn't seen until this May when he ran a solid race to finish 7th and then built on that when finishing 3rd a couple of weeks later. I thought that was a very good run on testing ground given his best form in the UK was either on good ground or on the AW. He's got a decent draw here and hopefully he should be able to settle a bit further forward than he was able to last time. He will improve again once going up in trip, but I do think he is capable of winning over this trip and he looks a big price at double figures.

 

Across Dubai @ 14.00 win and 3.75 place with Bet365

 

Randwick R9 (8.10am)

It is a shame the odds on favourite has been scratched here because I was going to oppose him. Icebath is the main pick and ran a huge race 1st up when she recorded the 2nd fastest last 400m and last 200m of the meeting. She looks better than a handicapper to me and she has already been placed in a Listed contest and a G3. There should be improvement 2nd up. I am going to have a saver on Cristal Breeze who was 3rd behind Icebath in that race. I think he has more to come as well and although he won on a Heavy track on his Australian debut I do think his UK form suggests he will be better on a quicker surface and I do want him onside.

 

Icebath @ 3.00 with Bet365

Cristal Breeze @ 5.50 with Bet365

[BillyHills]

Class 2 Handicaps

250 Haydock

 

230 Ascot

305 Ascot

 

1pt EW Patent @ bet365

Euchen Glen 14/1
Salayel 13/2
Kipps  11/2

 

[richard-westwood]

230 ascot 

Salayel 225 +2 

Pretty in grey 224 +3 

Both of these have chances today....pretty in grey is unstoppable currently ....has been penalised and steps up to a mile but might not be finished yet ....salayal wants a mile andc5lb claim is a big plus ...chances 

Pretty in grey 10pts win 11/2 willh

Salayel 10pts win 13/2 bet365 

 

[richard-westwood]

415 ascot 

Blue mist   227 +2

Raising sand 226 +2 

Via,serendipity  223 +1 

Top 2 here have good form over the dist and are still feasibly weighted to run well ...

Blue mist 10pt win 5/1 bet365 

Raising sand 10pt win 12/1skyb

4x2 pt win doubles with above race 

 

[richard-westwood]

345 kemp 

Bookies have 4 horses under 6/1 which seems a bit strange given how open this race is .....I think I'll try ew bets on ...zwayyan ...and ....silent attack.....both of which will appreciate the return to the all weather and who are very fast on a going day and could outrun their big prices 

2x 5pt ew 25/1..bet365 both 

 

[Tedthewolf]

2.50 Hay JUST IN TIME 14/1 Corals 1/4 1-4

3.50 Ascot SPANISH CITY 10/1  Bet 365 1/5 1-3

4.15 Ascot ARBALET 22/1 skybet 1/5 1-5

4.35 Hay STAR SHIELD 9/1 Skybet 1/5 1-5

4x e/w singles + e/w Lucky 15

Best of luck  all.

[Zilzalian]

Thoughts from this quarter... The fastest middle distance race i have recorded/rated this year was the race Alpenista won before he came second to Love at a huge price, the horse i fancied for the race Alpinista won was Kirstenbosh i am assuming it will come on for that first run and 50/1 with bet365 is a whopping price even with enable in the field, Listening to Gosden a few weeks back got me thinking he is overthinking with Enable and might shoot himself in the foot, I'm trying to squeeze a last good win out of The Tin Man and was thinking, both trained by Fanshawe so a tasty EW double springs to mind even though one is a seven runner jobby.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

12.45 Ascot - 1pt e/w Siam Fox @ 12/1 Hills

I think those with a run are beatable so chancing a newcomer here and I like the prospects of Richard Hannon's runner. He's the only half brother to the high class horse Fox Champion (who coincidentally also runs today) and is bred to be smart at 2 with Prince of Lir's stud career off to a strong start. The yard can get one ready to go first time out so I think he looks a fair price here.

1.45 Haydock - 1pt e/w Kinross @ 17/2 Bet365

Backed this one in the 2000 Guineas when running a sound enough race without being able to muster up the speed to finish anywhere other than midfield but was far from disgraced on his first outing of the season and ran okay in France last time. Does need to step up but drops in grade here and his only previous experience with ease in the ground was when a very impressive debut winner. Both his sire, Kingman, and his dam enjoyed soft conditions so this could help today and in calmer waters could get back in the groove.

1.55 Ascot - 1pt e/w Concierge @ 17/2 Hills

Quite a few of these look handicapped to their best but Concierge has run off higher marks in the past and got a deserved win at Bath last time out over 5f on soft. Was convincing that day, putting his extra stamina to good use as he stays 6f no problem and I think it could be a similar story here. There looks lots of pace on here and I think this one can come through late to challenge if getting the splits. This will be harder than last time but with question marks over some of the others and their handicap marks, this is one who could eek out some more improvement as is fairly unexposed over the trip.

2.00 Kempton - 1pt win Mighty Gurkha @ 7/1 Bet365

Hasn't done much wrong in his career to date and was a mightily impressive winner on his only start on the all-weather to date. Can write off his effort in France last time when very slowly away and bumped into what looks a very smart horse in Method two starts back. Has the best form in the book to me and whilst others are more unexposed, I'll take the proven form at 7/1 here.

2.30 Ascot - 1pt e/w Look Around @ 12/1 Bet365

The handicapper has relented a bit on this one and she appeals now off a mark of 98 with a further 5lbs taken off by her jockey. Has plenty of form in group races that make this look a fair enough mark and has had excuses when not quite running up to it this season - needing her first run back, outstayed having travelled well over 1m2f next time and then ran well here last time where it paid to come from off the pace - still finished a creditable 3rd having led briefly at the furlong pole and with a more patient ride here I think 10/1 could look a big price.

2.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w Just in Time @ 12/1 Bet365

Bounced back from a lengthy absence with two good runs this season over 2 miles but shaped as if a stiff 1m6f would be more up his street. Is only 1lb higher than when winning a good race back in 2018 having displayed a very progressive profile. Looks as if just as good here and has gone well on previous starts on soft. The 2f shorter trip today can be the key and see the progression shown a couple of years ago continue.

3.25 Haydock - The Tin Man @ 14/1 Bet365

Has a bit to find on form but went well last time out when narrowly beaten and will relish the softer conditions here. Has an excellent record in this race - an unlucky second to Hello Youmzain last year, a winner on deep ground in 2018 and a good 3rd in a hot renewal won by Harry Angel in 2017. Never run a bad race at Haydock so a good chance this will be his best run of the season here and looks an each-way chance at a healthy price.

[The Equaliser]

Two Trixies today in non handicap races

1.10 Hd Fancy Man 11/10
1.45 Hd Khaloosy 15/8 £2 win at 2/1
3.25 Hd Hello Youmzain 4/1 £2 at 7/2
£1 Trixie = £4 = poss £61.08

1.45 Hd Stormy Antartic 9/2 £1 at 5/1
2.0 Km Mystery Smiles 7/2 £2 at 7/2
2.25 Strat Shantou Express £2 win at 15/8
£1 Trixie at £1 = £4 poss £124.64

Other bets:

1.10 Hd William Bligh 50p win at 10/1

3.25 Hd Art Power £1 win at 11/2

2.00 Km Mighty Gurkha £1 win at 7/1

2.25 Str Perfect Predator £1 at 11/2

4.45 Str St Galien £1 win at 9/2
4.45 str Zambella £1 win at 7/1

Multiples = £8

Singles = £14.50

Total Stakes  = £22.50

Back later with look at the handicap racing

===================================================================================================

Only Fancy Man obliged for me with my two Trixies so a loss of £8.  The new balance is £700.69 (£800 Bank)

My saver bet on Mighty Gurkha only prevailed by a nose so that eased the pain of a complete wipe out.  This meant a loss of £6.50 on the day. The balance c/fwd is now £294.58 (£400 Bank)

Some class action at York tomorrow so maybe I'm in for a change of fortune ?

 

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[black rabbit]

Indianpolis    2 50  hay    1pt win  @  22/1  betfair   

[Valiant Thor]

All UNIBET

2.05 Wexford DARE TO FLARE 23.26 @ 5.5
2.25 Stratford FOR PLEASURE 42.64 @ 3.0
5.30 Kempton REDEMPTIVE 34.11 @ 3.75

100pts staked
1 winner returns 128pts ish
 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Valiant Thor
5.30 Kemp not 7.30

[richard-westwood]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

415 ascot 

Blue mist   227 +2

Raising sand 226 +2 

Via,serendipity  223 +1 

Top 2 here have good form over the dist and are still feasibly weighted to run well ...

Blue mist 10pt win 5/1 bet365 

Raising sand 10pt win 12/1skyb

4x2 pt win doubles with above race 

 

Raising sand non runner replace with via serendipity 

[Valiant Thor]

4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

All UNIBET

2.05 Wexford DARE TO FLARE 23.26 @ 5.5
2.25 Stratford FOR PLEASURE 42.64 @ 3.0
5.30 Kempton REDEMPTIVE 34.11 @ 3.75

100pts staked
1 winner returns 128pts ish
 

 

Actual rounded stakes backed at.......
2.05 Wexford DARE TO FLARE 23.25 @ 5.5
2.25 Stratford FOR PLEASURE 42.65 @ 3.0 @ 9/4 BOG
5.30 Kempton REDEMPTIVE 34.10 @ 3.75
100 staked
138.61 returned
38.61profit
 

[Zilzalian]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Two Trixies today in non handicap races

1.10 Hd Fancy Man 11/10
1.45 Hd Khaloosy 15/8 £2 win at 2/1
3.25 Hd Hello Youmzain 4/1 £2 at 7/2
£1 Trixie = £4 = poss £61.08

1.45 Hd Stormy Antartic 9/2 £1 at 5/1
2.0 Km Mystery Smiles 7/2 £2 at 7/2
2.25 Strat Shantou Express £2 win at 15/8
£1 Trixie at £1 = £4 poss £124.64

Other bets:

1.10 Hd William Bligh 50p win at 10/1

3.25 Hd Art Power £1 win at 11/2

2.00 Km Mighty Gurkha £1 win at 7/1

2.25 Str Perfect Predator £1 at 11/2

4.45 Str St Galien £1 win at 9/2
4.45 str Zambella £1 win at 7/1

Multiples = £8

Singles = £14.50

Total Stakes  = £22.50

Back later with look at the handicap racing

 

 

 

 

 

That Alpenista race has knocked up some ew profit Kirstenbosh ran well behind enable at 50/1 (this morning)

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

That Alpenista race has knocked up some ew profit Kirstenbosh ran well behind enable at 50/1 (this morning)

I was rooting for Kirstenbosh for you towards the end of the race.  Hope you backed it each way or just for a place on Betfair.

How does Bataash fit into your ratings system?

 

[Zilzalian]

Well last year i did very well backing against Bataash and Enable in france, I top rated Slalom for the Arc was gutted when it was a NR my next top rated was Waldgeist so switched to that, this year Battash looks a different horse although think its always worth backing against it so not for me if it turns up in France again, the good thing about horses like bataash and enable is you get great prices behind them i'm sure it was glass slippers beat it in france at 28/1 for example, Waldgeist was best price 25/1 and i had the double you dont need me to tell you that you dont have to do that very often to produce a big profit even from small stakes, i have the opinion that all favs are beatable so i avoid them so if i do back one it usually wins. basically i work back from the outsider to the fav most people do the opposite. fitting things into ratings systems should be flexible if there is only points between 2 horses say but the price difference is huge then for me its a no brainer go for the biggie, get a winner at 20/1 and you can be wrong 18 times after and still be in profit at level stakes is my view, favs imho your on a hiding to nothing unless you have very few bets and are 90% sure of the ones you do have.

[MCLARKE]

We all have different ways of making money, if you make money backing outsiders then well done.

There is a psychological issue with the long losing runs, with a strike rate of 5% over 1,000 bets you are likely to hit a losing run of 135 bets.

Personally I prefer short priced favourites. Enable on Saturday at 1/9 was one of my best bets of the season.

[Tedthewolf]

On 9/6/2020 at 11:31 PM, MCLARKE said:

We all have different ways of making money, if you make money backing outsiders then well done.

There is a psychological issue with the long losing runs, with a strike rate of 5% over 1,000 bets you are likely to hit a losing run of 135 bets.

Personally I prefer short priced favourites. Enable on Saturday at 1/9 was one of my best bets of the season.

Backing 1/9 shots and  money  shots in general  your a braver man than me Mclarke you need  a  much higher  bank to play with and   with around  a 58% win rate  means around 42 losers in every 100. You mention long losing runs with backing outsiders but backing e/w make these runs shorter.  But as you say each man to there own.

Good Luck

[MCLARKE]

Because of the high strike rate you need a smaller bank. With a strike rate of 80% the longest losing run is only likely to be 4 so if I was betting £50 on each selection a bank of £200 would suffice.

With a strike rate of 5% you are likely to have a losing run of 135 bets so you would need a bank of nearly £7,000.

I agree that you can back each way but this adds extra complexity, each way is only good value in certain circumstances, it depends on places available, number of runners ad the "shape" of the betting.