Racing Chat - Wednesday July 29th

[BillyHills]

4 meetings including Goodwood and Galway

be back with the Galway Plate ratings

 

[BillyHills]

645 Galway

Galway Plate (Grade A) Chase

 

1pt EW Jett 28/1 6 places PP
1pt EW Royal Rendezvous 5 places 10/1 Boylesports 

1,2,5,10 F/C Comb

 

Three at Bangor worth a look.

230 Paddleyourowncanoe 11/4 bet365
330 Wisecarckwer 9/4 bet365
100 Lantiern 13/2 bet365

 

 

[richard-westwood]

420 good 

Arigato 227+1 8.6 betfair 

Toro strike  225 +2 9.2 betfair 

2x 10pt wins 

 

[calva decoy]

Donald McCain has a superb record with his hurdlers at Bangor over the last 5 years , 51/194 winners 26% win strike rate with a + LSP of £110.88 , runs 4 their today.

1200- Away At Dawn 11/2 bet 365 1st ? good start to the day.

1230- Blakeney Point 5/1 betfair  1st at evens , smashed in , best price above at 9.15 ?? 2/2 , nice.

200- Bannixtown Glory 8/1 ew bet 365. 1st ??? 3/3 .

300- Ofcourseiwill 18/1 ew bet 365

 

Edited July 29, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[black rabbit]

Dirty Rascal  1pt win @ 18/1 betfair   

Dean street doll  1/2 pt win @  14/1 betfair 

Rochester House 1pt win  @ 10/1 betfair 

 

 

P/L Account  =  + 107.25  Pts 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.10 Goodwood - 1pt win Chamade @ 16/1 Bet365

Clearly the favourite has a chance but to take horses at 11/8 I'd like a bit more of a guarantee on trip and conditions so I'll swerve. Ran very well at Ascot but was keen so going up an extra couple of furlongs poses some questions, for all he saw it out well over a mile and should stay on pedigree. Also has a high knee action which suits soft ground as it was that day and has yet to race on faster than good to soft, so with those two slight question marks I'm going to take on with Chamade. Still unexposed but looks reasonably progressive, running respectably in hot races so far this year. Weakened late on in the Berlin Tango race at Kempton which was the key to a lot of Royal Ascot form through the likes of Pyledriver and then ran even better at Newbury last time in a race that could barely have worked out better. Chamade was 3rd of 7 with the horses in and all of those who have run since going well to see them get ratings of 105, 103, 102 and 104. Chamade goes handicapping off 93 today and I think the track will suit and there's not too many who want to go forward today so I think is capable of a big run from close to the pace.

1.45 Goodwood - 2pts win Smart Champion @ 8/1 Bet365

Obviously mentioned this one a few times this week already and got bigger prices yesterday - backed him at Ascot when running a huge race from behind under similar conditions to today, didn't back that up at Newcastle but that came quickly after a hard race at Ascot and he made a big move on the very wide outside turning in which used up any petrol he had. Expect much better today and we know he stays extremely well so represents a good bet.

2.15 Goodwood - 1pt win Mambo Nights @ 9/1 Bet365

Competitive race but this one ran in good races as a 2yo and has progressed well at 3 upped to middle distances. Readily won first time up this season and then easily backed that up last time, giving plenty of weight away in a small field and making all to score. Had the run of the race there but on formlines would hold the shorter priced A Star Above if taking results literally and is well drawn to get out and a handy position - will enjoy the track and can continue his progression today.

2.45 Goodwood - 2pts win Significantly @ 9/2 Bet365

Shaped very well on debut when touched off by Muker at Newcastle - that one franked that form at Royal Ascot and Significantly has twice gone well since, but has shaped both times like an easy 5f would suit this strong travelling type who just got chinned late on over 6f at Doncaster and then the stiff 5f at Sandown. The form reads well, conditions are spot on and should go well.

3.15 Goodwood - 2pts win Mohaather @ 3/1 Bet365

I'm just not totally sold by the 3yos this year so I'm really keen on Mohaather who was seriously impressive last time after having a nightmare run at Royal Ascot. Obviously Circus Maximus technically holds him on that form but we'll never know what would have happened and it benefited to be on the front end in the Queen Anne. Pretty much all of Mohaather's other form makes him a strong candidate for this with the exception perhaps of one run on heavy but conditions suit and I think he can land this competitive renewal. 

4.20 Goodwood - 1pt win Verboten @ 10/1 Bet365

Flopped on soft ground at Ascot but I think you can forgive that and has some form in the book to give him a good chance here. Was a big eyecatcher at Lingfield two starts back, coming from a mile behind to stay on powerfully late on whilst still looking quite green. Should know more now and with conditions back in his favour and a strong pace to run at, should be able to put in a much better effort this afternoon. 

[The Equaliser]

No multiples today; just some singles bets

1.10 Gd Be More £1 win at 11/2
1.10 Gd Dean St Doll 50p win at 11/1
1.10 Gd Lake Lucerne 50p win at 8/1

1.45 Gd Oleg £1 win at 7/1
1.45 Gd True Destiny £1 win at 4/1

2.15 Gd Encipher 50p ew at 10/1

2.45 Gd Significantly £1 ew at 9/2 (hope it drifts to 5/1 at least)

3.15 Gd Circus Maximus £1 ew at 13/2

3.45 Gd Miss Jingles £1 win at 7/2 (couldn't justify a £2 win)

4.20 Gd Arigato £1 win at 5/1
4.20 Gd Dirty Rascal 50p ew at 12/1
Both drawn low so let's hope that helps

2.30 Bang Bandsman £2 win at 85/40

6.00 Thirsk Admiralty £2 win at 3/1

6.30 Thisk Hayadh 50p ew at 20/1

Total win/ew stakes = £17

Not a good day for me with just one winner and one placed selction.  The winning returns were £7.13 so a loss of £9.87 on the day.  The c/fwd balance on my singles bets is now £334.52 (£400 Bank)

The multiples balance remains the same at £646.18 as I did not have any multiple bets today

Goodwood continues tomorrow.

I am fed up with trying to find bargain outsider selections but will do so for the 30th and 31st July.

After that I am going take a different tack.  I will just be looking at Favourites from up to three meetings.  I will then decide either to back the favourite, lay the favourite or just not back/lay at all.  This should be fun.  I will only be placing £2.11 on either a win or lay bet.  I can't paper trade as I have said before. With the win bets I will also include them in my multiple selections so as to try and clear the on going deficit.  Don't know when I will clear the singles deficit as I suspect that my lay bets will exceed my win bets.  This is because more favourites lose their races whether in handicaps or not.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Trotter]

Goodwood 3.15 - Sussex Stakes - Group One Mile

Geez, what a race despite only having 7 runners

First and 2nd from the Newmarket Guineas
First and 2nd from the Irish 2000 Guineas
Queen Anne winner from Royal Ascot
Summer Mile winner from Ascot
San Donato making up the numbers

I'm going with Siskin because he's unbeaten so we don't know what his limit is but he was pretty impressive in the Irish 2000 

Currently 5/2 at bet365

 

[Tedthewolf]

4.20 Goodwood-BATTERED 14/1 1/5  1-5 is a stong e/w selectiom from me. CD  winner off a good mark today dropped back in trip after poor run lto  will suit,  trainer in good form, good jockey on top this horse tips a lot of boxes today and is a nice e/w price   i expect  really big run from battered in this C3 handicap.

[The Equaliser]

23 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

4.20 Goodwood-BATTERED 14/1 1/5  1-5 is a stong e/w selectiom from me. CD  winner off a good mark today dropped back in trip after poor run lto  will suit,  trainer in good form, good jockey on top this horse tips a lot of boxes today and is a nice e/w price   i expect  really big run from battered in this C3 handicap.

I hope that stall12 isn't its undoing

[calva decoy]

Shame to hear about Defoe suffering a fatal injury on the gallops , gutsy type .

[maxironchin]

3.15 Goodwood 

Circus Maximus

Aidan O'Brien trained and preferred selection of Ryan Moore. Horse is on top form at present.

(this would make a nice double for me with Mambo Nights just gone in).

[LeMale]

@calva decoy Where did that last pick come from??? Was it always there and i somehow missed it.  ? ? Anyway, thanks for the tips (did a trixie) Shame your on a break and can't take advantage of your own winners, Cheers again 

[The Equaliser]

29 minutes ago, maxironchin said:

3.15 Goodwood 

Circus Maximus

Aidan O'Brien trained and preferred selection of Ryan Moore. Horse is on top form at present.

(this would make a nice double for me with Mambo Nights just gone in).

Well done with Mambo Nights and good luck with Circus Maximus.

A very warm welcome to Punters Lounge

 

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

420 good 

Arigato 227+1 8.6 betfair 

Toro strike  225 +2 9.2 betfair 

2x 10pt wins 

 

Toro does the business ....finally we are back on track 

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Shame to hear about Defoe suffering a fatal injury on the gallops , gutsy type .

That’s a crying shame. It’s never nice anyway, but always ran his race. 

[Tedthewolf]

3 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

4.20 Goodwood-BATTERED 14/1 1/5  1-5 is a stong e/w selectiom from me. CD  winner off a good mark today dropped back in trip after poor run lto  will suit,  trainer in good form, good jockey on top this horse tips a lot of boxes today and is a nice e/w price   i expect  really big run from battered in this C3 handicap.

Ran ok didn't get the best of runs btn 7 1/2 l in 6th may be worth following esp if it drops another few lbs.

2 e/w for me in the Galway plate  6 places 1/5 odds WINTER ESCAPE 25/1 & US AND THEM 20/1

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, LeMale said:

@calva decoy Where did that last pick come from??? Was it always there and i somehow missed it.  ? ? Anyway, thanks for the tips (did a trixie) Shame your on a break and can't take advantage of your own winners, Cheers again 

No le male , I only noticed he had a 4th over hurdles later on , the horse took the Mickey out of the 7Lb claimer on it , reckon B.Hughes would have had it close.

I prefer the bread & butter racing compared to the caviar type stuff of Goodwood etc... 

Well done on you're Trixie , each to their own but I've never & wouldn't ever bet or copy someone else's tips , kind of defeats the object of putting your own study time in .

[LeMale]

15 hours ago, calva decoy said:

No le male , I only noticed he had a 4th over hurdles later on , the horse took the Mickey out of the 7Lb claimer on it , reckon B.Hughes would have had it close.

I prefer the bread & butter racing compared to the caviar type stuff of Goodwood etc... 

Well done on you're Trixie , each to their own but I've never & wouldn't ever bet or copy someone else's tips , kind of defeats the object of putting your own study time in .

I'm up at 0400hrs every day "Putting my own study time in" and would never bet blindly on "someone else's tips" without looking into it myself. Silly me for thinking this site was for punters to share their knowledge and help others share in their success to try and stick it to the bookies.  

I've only been into horse racing for just a little over a year and decided to concentrate on just flat racing until i felt i knew what i was doing, but there are lots of very good experienced punters on here who "highlight" certain tips, good tips, valuable information that some of us might have missed (Alley cat's distance change info that wasn't listed the other day, which as it turned out was a VITAL piece of knowledge, for eg) and only a fool wouldn't get on it and make money out of it, which at the end of the day is what we are all trying to do. Your info on Donald McCain was sound and i felt all three of the tips could win (at worse two) which is why i did a trixie and i have also used about 5-6 of your other tips you have posted in the past, most of which i made a profit, so thanks again, but that leaves a lot that i have not used and saved myself some money. So please don't judge what you don't know, i was just being courteous and grateful( as i am with other punters tips and info on here) for the info and a "like" or a "your welcome" would have done. 

[MCLARKE]

Totally agree Le Male.

If I was confident that a punter was successful with his tips then I wouldn't hesitate to bet on them and I would have no issues with anybody betting on my tips.

I often bet on Ralphie's tips and I have made excellent profits from them.

I'm not quite sure why Calva is getting so uptight.

[LeMale]

8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Totally agree Le Male.

If I was confident that a punter was successful with his tips then I wouldn't hesitate to bet on them and I would have no issues with anybody betting on my tips.

I often bet on Ralphie's tips and I have made excellent profits from them.

I'm not quite sure why Calva is getting so uptight.

Thanks MCLARKE. Maybe i'm wrong, but i thought that this is what this site is for, people sharing tips in the hope of making a profit, otherwise what's the point of posting?