Racing Chat - Sunday July 26th

[BillyHills]

Good racing on Sunday!

245 York ratings

Top 3 in the handicap

1pt EW Soldiers Minute 12/1 HIlls

Comb/Fc 1,2,3

 

Others of note
235 Crt: Lough Salt 9/4 bet365
455 Crt: Mega Double 11/2 bet365 (lined up for this?)
545 Cur: Goodnight Girl EW 10/1 bet365

 

[black rabbit]

On My Way   3 40 Ascot   1pt win  23/1 betfair  

[calva decoy]

Fancy ARMORY at 11/1 with to be placed Gold Cup 2.55 Curragh.

Was 2.75L 4th behind Siskin 44 days ago staying on , should relish the step up in trip with today's extra 2f as well as the age for weight allowance.

I visited Charlie Fellowes yard a few years ago & this beast of a horse who Charlie was waxing lyrical about sauntered around the parade ring of P.C.Hyam's who Charlie was borrowing to cater for Elite Racing Club members , the horse JERIMIAH was off for a long period ,has been one paced & disappointing in his 2 runs since returning but if Ascot have had a good soaking overnight & 1st time blinkers do the trick he might be worth a look in the market later on , albeit getting his rating down & a spin over 14f may be key !

Edited July 26, 2020 by calva decoy

[richard-westwood]

245 york 

Wentworth falls .   226 +2

Jonah Jones 226 +3 

Joint top here ....eye catching booking of frankie on jonah but needs to prove himself at 6f 

Jonah jones 10pts win 5/2 ,b365

Wentworth falls 5pts saver 11.5 betfair 

1pt rev forecast 

[richard-westwood]

305 ascot 

Agincourt 229 +2 

Farzeen  225 + 1 

Agincourt 10pt win 3/1 b365

Farzeen 5pt saver 16.0 betfair 

1pt rev forecast 

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today and some win/ew bets

1.55 Asc Magic J (£1 win at 2/1)
2.45 Yk Jonah Jones 5/2 ( I hope that @MCLARKE isn't right about Frankie being useless in sprints)
3.40 Asc More Beautiful 6/4 (very  strong in the market despite its flop last time)
One £1.50 Trixie = £6 v £79.50

Other bets today

2.10 Yk Tintoretto 50p ew at 14/1
2.45 Yk Soldiers Minute 50p ew at 8/1
2.45 Yk Muscika 50p ew at=t 8/1
1.55 Asc Bullet Proof 50p ew at 13/2
2.30 Asc Country £1 win at 9/4
2.30 Asc Almania 50p win at 9/2
2.30 Asc Dash Of Spice 50p win at 8/1
3.05 Asc Agincout £1.50 win at 3/1
3.05 Asc shimmering 50p win at 10/1
3.40 Asc Santosha £1 win 4/1
3.40 Asc Caroline Dale £1 win at 7/2
4.15 Asc Tiger crusade £1 win at 7/4
4.15 Asc Campari £1 win at 10/3
4.15 Asc Sun Power 50p ew at 18/1
3.10 Cart Licklighter £2 win at 7/4

Singles stakes = £16

Multiples = £6

Total stakes = £22

Should be a very interesting afternoon if nothing else

3.40 Asc More Beautiful £3.70 at 2.74 = £6.12 poss return

Couldn't resist it to try and get my Trixie money back

Total stakes £25.70

Well, not a total disaster.  @MCLARKE was right about Frankie, a complete Jonah in sprints. Luckily I had a little on Musika ew to dull the pain Not one winner in the Trixie and extra win bet of £3.70 on More Beautiful didn't work either.  So a whitewash on the multiples and a £6 loss.  The balance c/fwd is £643.67 (Bank £800)

The cover bets in my singles worked out quite well though I did incur a small loss of £3.30.  this means that the balance C/Fwd is now £355.74 (£400 bank)

Looks like tomorrow's fayre is pretty ropey with only two class 3 races.  I do drop down to Class 4 on occasions for my multiples but I wouldn't count on it.  Roll on Glorious Goodwood 

 

 

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Trotter]

Bit of chatter yesterday in the General Racing Chat thread about the old Fineform System and how it might be teaked to negate the obvious difficulties with it

Basically the system involves awarding points based on last two form figures, C, D and CD wins, The glaring omissions being that it takes no account of Class or Going

So I've loked at todays handicaps at York and Ascot and noted races with a clear top rated horse (no joint tops) and then looked to see if they should act on the going and have either won in todays Class or placed in a higher class

These are the selections .......(prices bet365)

Ascot

1.20 - Seen The Lyte 5/1
4.15 - Tiger Crsade 13/8
4.50 - Strait of Hormuz 9/2

York

2.10 - Right Action 14/1
3.55 - Mister Lambreys 3/1
4.30 - Global Spirit 13/2

Let's see how they get on !

One problem I encounted was my Class twaek because I feel you should include lightly raced horses that have won in the class below but might be on the upgrade. Might have to re-formulate this 

The consideration about Going is a bit subjective because you're using judgement as to whether the horse should act on it if the evidence is sparse but there we go. It's obviously not ideal to have subjective criteria in a system ........ 

If the above produces some winners I might stick with this for a few days, maybe with tweaks !

 

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by Trotter

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

Bit of chatter yesterday in the General Racing Chat thread about the old Fineform System and how it might be teaked to negate the obvious difficulties with it

Basically the system involves awarding points based on last two form figures, C, D and CD wins, The glaring omissions being that it takes no account of Class or Going

So I've loked at todays handicaps at York and Ascot and noted races with a clear top rated horse (no joint tops) and then looked to see if they should act on the going and have either won in todays Class or placed in a higher class

These are the selections .......(prices bet365)

Ascot

1.20 - Seen The Lyte 5/1
4.15 - Tiger Crsade 13/8
4.50 - Strait of Hormuz 9/2

York

2.10 - Right Action 14/1
3.55 - Mister Lambreys 3/1
4.30 - Global Spirit 13/2

Let's see how they get on !

One problem I encounted was my Class twaek because I feel you should include lightly raced horses that have won in the class below but might be on the upgrade. Might have to re-formulate this 

The consideration about Going is a bit subjective because you're using judgement as to whether the horse should act on it if the evidence is sparse but there we go. It's obviously not ideal to have subjective criteria in a system ........ 

If the above produces some winners I might stick with this for a few days, maybe with tweaks !

 

 

I’ve done some for fun but had no cash on them.  Not been that strict as I’m net betting on it . Basically whoever is top rated and can go on the going they go in.  Nothing below class 4.

Ascot 

12.45 Molinari 12/1 , 2nd 

1.20 Seen The Lyte 4/1, 5th

1.55 Mountain Peak 9/2 4th 

2.30 Country 2/1

3.05 Love and Thunder 10/1

4.15 Campari 3/1

4.50 Repaupo 14/1

York 

 

1.00 Zezenia 9/4 3rd

1.35 Black Caspian 11/2  4th 

2.10 Right Action 12/1

2.45 Wentworth Falls 7/1

3.55 Monsieur Lambrays 10/3

4.30 Global Spirit 5/1

Edited July 26, 2020 by Villa Chris
Mistake

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

Bit of chatter yesterday in the General Racing Chat thread about the old Fineform System and how it might be teaked to negate the obvious difficulties with it

Basically the system involves awarding points based on last two form figures, C, D and CD wins, The glaring omissions being that it takes no account of Class or Going

So I've loked at todays handicaps at York and Ascot and noted races with a clear top rated horse (no joint tops) and then looked to see if they should act on the going and have either won in todays Class or placed in a higher class

These are the selections .......(prices bet365)

Ascot

1.20 - Seen The Lyte 5/1
4.15 - Tiger Crsade 13/8
4.50 - Strait of Hormuz 9/2

York

2.10 - Right Action 14/1
3.55 - Mister Lambreys 3/1
4.30 - Global Spirit 13/2

Let's see how they get on !

One problem I encounted was my Class twaek because I feel you should include lightly raced horses that have won in the class below but might be on the upgrade. Might have to re-formulate this 

The consideration about Going is a bit subjective because you're using judgement as to whether the horse should act on it if the evidence is sparse but there we go. It's obviously not ideal to have subjective criteria in a system ........ 

If the above produces some winners I might stick with this for a few days, maybe with tweaks !

 

 

 

17 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’ve done some for fun but had no cash on them.  Not been that strict as I’m net betting on it . Basically whoever is top rated and can go on the going they go in.  Nothing below class 4.

Ascot 

12.45 Molinari 12/1 , 2nd 

1.20 Seen The Lyte 4/1, 5th

1.55 Mountain Peak 9/2 4th 

2.30 Country 2/1

3.05 Love and Thunder 10/1

York 

1.00 Zezenia 9/4 3rd

1.35 Brunch 7/1 won 

2.10 Right Action 12/1

2.45 Wentworth Falls 7/1

3.55 Monsieur Lambrays 10/3

4.30 Global Spirit 5/1

Not trying to pee on your parade guys but
Points are awarded for each of the runners' previous TWO OUTINGS OF THE CURRENT SEASON ONLY:- 1st 5 points , 2nd 3 points, 3rd 2 points, 4th 1 point , D (disqualified from 1st place) 5 points, Course & Distance (C&D) C&D 3 points , C.D 3 points , D 2 points, C 1 point .

13pts...None
12pts...Asc 3.40  Isabella Giles @ 8/1 B365
11pts..1.55 Mountain Peak @ 9/2 ... 4th & Curr 2.55 Buckhurst @ 8/1 B365
The original system was to back the top rated horse for 1 bet a day or split stakes and back all top rated if more than 1
so todays bet would be Isabelle Giles in the 3.40 at Ascot

Edited July 26, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[calva decoy]

7 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Fancy ARMORY at 11/1 with to be placed Gold Cup 2.55 Curragh.

Was 2.75L 4th behind Siskin 44 days ago staying on , should relish the step up in trip with today's extra 2f as well as the age for weight allowance.

I visited Charlie Fellowes yard a few years ago & this beast of a horse who Charlie was waxing lyrical about sauntered around the parade ring of P.C.Hyam's who Charlie was borrowing to cater for Elite Racing Club members , the horse JERIMIAH was off for a long period ,has been one paced & disappointing in his 2 runs since returning but if Ascot have had a good soaking overnight & 1st time blinkers do the trick he might be worth a look in the market later on , albeit getting his rating down & a spin over 14f may be key !

JEREMIAH was 20's with betfair this morning , 1st past the post at 8's .

[Villa Chris]

25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

 

Not trying to pee on your parade guys but
Points are awarded for each of the runners' previous TWO OUTINGS OF THE CURRENT SEASON ONLY:- 1st 5 points , 2nd 3 points, 3rd 2 points, 4th 1 point , D (disqualified from 1st place) 5 points, Course & Distance (C&D) C&D 3 points , C.D 3 points , D 2 points, C 1 point .

13pts...None
12pts...Asc 3.40  Isabella Giles @ 8/1 B365
11pts..1.55 Mountain Peak @ 9/2 ... 4th & Curr 2.55 Buckhurst @ 8/1 B365
The original system was to back the top rated horse for 1 bet a day or split stakes and back all top rated if more than 1
so todays bet would be Isabelle Giles in the 3.40 at Ascot

Always thought you could apply it to most races and it would give you a pick for that race 

[Valiant Thor]

17 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Always thought you could apply it to most races and it would give you a pick for that race 

You can do what you want with it as its only a rating system, but it was advised to limit selections and back top rated (13pts only) if non @ 13pts then move down to 12pts etc etc.
Common sense says that there will be a selection from it in every race which gives hell of a lot of bets to look at and what's the point of having a rating system if you ignore the top rated which is in effect supposed to be the best one , is it not.
**Forgot to add the top rated horse / horses of the day were the ones he gave out on his telephone tips line **.

Edited July 26, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Zilzalian]

As the great Nick Mordin would say all systems have a shelf life, the more they are latched on to the more the prices contract, they soon become non profit.

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

As the great Nick Mordin would say all systems have a shelf life, the more they are latched on to the more the prices contract, they soon become non profit.

A warm welcome to Punters Lounge. 

I still have a Nick Mordin book on my shelf called the winning look

 

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

As the great Nick Mordin would say all systems have a shelf life, the more they are latched on to the more the prices contract, they soon become non profit.

Very true ..... 

I suppose the only point is though that nowadays with the internet there are hundreds of systems and trends and tips readily available out there that they cancel each other out ....... every horse is going to be the subject of a trend, system or tip

Anyway, welcome to the forum ! .......... ?

I do miss the old Mordin website with the weekly reviews of racing in the UK, Ireland, France, Germany,. Italy ......... I used to study that religiously and make notes on the horses for future reference.

[Zilzalian]

Yes he (Mordin) really was a bit of an eccentric, very clever man i followed him in the old SL weekender and again when RP took it over. thank you for the welcome.