Tennis Tips - April 22 - April 28

[aphro]

• Krajinovic to beat Coric @ 2.28 with Pinnacle.
• My value radar shows me value with this odds.

[aphro]

And also i wonder - if anyone have an opinion about Balazs, because my value radar points on him as he has value today.

[i1_principe]

Cuevas to beat Berrettini at 2.42 with Pinnacle

I do not understand this odds and why Cuevas is an outsider. He is the far more experienced player with good results on clay in general and this year too. He comes to this tournament after winning the title of Tunis Challenger and the self-confidence should be high. Also defeated Cilic in previous round who, although away from his best days is far from a class player of today's opponent. Berrettini won the 1st set after tiebreak 10-8 against Bedene and then it was easy. But against him now there is a mentally stronger opponent who has won 2 tiebreaks yesterday.

[aphro]

37 minutes ago, i1_principe said:

Cuevas to beat Berrettini at 2.42 with Pinnacle

I do not understand this odds and why Cuevas is an outsider. He is the far more experienced player with good results on clay in general and this year too. He comes to this tournament after winning the title of Tunis Challenger and the self-confidence should be high. Also defeated Cilic in previous round who, although away from his best days is far from a class player of today's opponent. Berrettini won the 1st set after tiebreak 10-8 against Bedene and then it was easy. But against him now there is a mentally stronger opponent who has won 2 tiebreaks yesterday.

Agree, value radar showed me good odds for Cuevas.

[four-leaf]

Attila Balazs to beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 2.45 with Unibet

He's playing well Attila and aims for his first semifinal since Bucharest 2012. He's most defenitely a clay specialist and having the home advantage as well as surface advantage I belive he has good chances of a win today. P-H Herbert isn't the most complete player on clay outthere so his chances a lower than the odds suggest. Initially it's a 50/50 matchup this one so there should be value in the Attila odds.

[four-leaf]

Nicolas Jarry to beat Daniil Medvedev at 3.85 with Unibet

Nico is playing good tennis again and with the confidence he's got now he'll be a dangerous opponent for Daniil.

[four-leaf]

Margarita Gasparyan to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 2.25 with Unibet

I don't understand why Margarita is the underdog here with her 3-0 record in this matchup and 6-0 in sets although it's only been on hardcourt but Margarita could probably win this in straight sets again anyway.

[aphro]

Any thoughts on Basilashvili? Value radar points on him as a value

[four-leaf]

23 minutes ago, aphro said:

Any thoughts on Basilashvili? Value radar points on him as a value

What your own thoughts?

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, aphro said:

And also i wonder - if anyone have an opinion about Balazs, because my value radar points on him as he has value today.

Please write something yourself about him

[aphro]

3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

What your own thoughts?

I have only mathematical analysis, for today bets are:

Krajinovic at 2.28

Cuevas at 2.54

Balazs at 2.61

Basilashvili at 2.39

 

All them were found with mathematical model.

[CzechPunter]

Well, that doesn't really tell us anything, does it? Please refrain from posting single posts asking about opinions multiple times a day. You can, of course, post your mathematical analysis for the day and ask for the forum's opinion in that post, but spamming the topics with multiple "What do you think" posts so often is a bit too much in my opinion, especially if the only thing that you can say about your possible predictions is that something calculated them. If you can say a bit more, you are obviously welcome to post as much as you'd like to. Thank you 

[Larkin22]

3 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Nicolas Jarry to beat Daniil Medvedev at 3.85 with Unibet

Nico is playing good tennis again and with the confidence he's got now he'll be a dangerous opponent for Daniil.

Jarry always worries me as being 1 dimensional but I also think he is a form player and definitely worth backing at this price. 

I might look at the handicaps as well, but I agree with four-leaf here.

[tomcody]

 

I somehow believe Naomi Osaka could beat Donna Vekic. It is not really a common sense but more like a feeling, sort of inner me tells me Osaka could win. I perfectly know and understand that Donna is very good clay courter but maybe she might be impressed playing against No. 1 on current WTA ranking. I might try to take Naomi in some double with some Ligue 2 game (like Clermont-Paris FC X2) just for fun and to respect my feeling... Could be tottaly wrong therefore please do not curse me if you follow my thoughts and (I certainly hope not) fall with bet...

[four-leaf]

What a complete turnaround from the world no.1.. Naomi Osaka 

[South_African_Punter]

5 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

What a complete turnaround from the world no.1.. Naomi Osaka 

Indeed. I think it hit 20 at my local bookie (didn't take it). Ha! So mentally strong for a young lady!

[CzechPunter]

Ramkumar Ramanathan (+1.5 sets) to beat Jordan Thompson at 2.10 with Pinnacle

While I'm not going to claim that Ramanathan is the better player of the two, I believe that he shouldn't be above evens to nick a set off the Australian tomorrow. After all, Thompson has already dropped sets against Soeda and Grills this week, with both of those guys being weaker than the Indian, who's been in cruise control so far.

[four-leaf]

Mikael Torpegaard to beat Tommy Paul at 3.60 with Unibet

I rate Mikael as a better player than these odds suggest. He's priced to high here. Tommy has just won the Sarasota open challenger title and seems a bit mentally exhausted and that's the most dangerous thing in tennis for a players game. If you can't focus you can't hit a ball right which makes you in the long run lose enough points to drop sets which he did by 6-2 to Michell Krueger in first set last match. Mikael was a bit sluggish himself by losing second set to Federico Coria but overall he played well enough to win the match eventually by a pretty convincing deciding set. If we see the same stuff from both players again this could be turn out to be more even than these odds suggests.

[four-leaf]

Mikael Torpegaard to beat (+1.5 sets) Tommy Paul at 1.86 Unibet

I play it safe also by taking this set handicap.

And adding: over 22.5 games at 2.18 Unibet

[Torque]

I'm surprised nobody is playing Thiem outright or on the handicaps (or both) against Nadal. He's got the better of the Spaniard on clay in each of the last two seasons, and in both of those years Nadal was playing much better than he is now. That's reflected in the prices of course, but even so based on how Nadal played in Monaco and also here I think you'd have to be brave to back him to win with any confidence. At the same time though, I'm not keen to back Thiem despite his previous successes against Nadal and it's a big no-bet for me.

One bet I do like is Kontaveit to beat Osaka. The Estonian managed to outlast an increasingly fragile Vika, whilst Osaka came back from the brink against Vekic. I noted the comments posted about Osaka's mental strength and obviously tennis betting is all about opinions but that's not the Osaka I know, or even the Osaka Osaka knows from things I've read - I'm sure she'd be the first to say that she isn't the most stable emotionally. Anyway, putting all of that to one side the main reason I want to back Kontaveit is that she has a far better record on clay than Osaka does and so I don't think she should be such a heavy dog in this one, despite Osaka leading the h2h (none of their previous meetings have been on clay). I took an early price of 2.55 at Betfair which has now been cut, but even at a general 2.25 I'd say that's fair.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Ah, another case of a wrong handicap .

Dominic Thiem to beat Rafael Nadal at 3.50 with William Hill

Thiem has indeed been the better of the two recently and I don't care where this is played. At 3.50, Thiem has to be played no matter what and with fingers crossed.

[South_African_Punter]

@Torque - I didn't see the Azarenka v Kontaveit game but I see Kontaveit won via retirement. Was it the case that Kontaveit only gained ascendancy in the game due to Azarenka injuring herself in some way?

[four-leaf]

Parlay at 6.53 with Unibet

Petra Martic to beat (-1.5 sets) Margarita Gasparyan at 2.04

Petra played high quality WTA tennis yesterday in her win against Kiki Mladenovic. The match took 3 hours and 19 minutes. After that Margarita beat Veronika Kudermetova and the match lasted 1 hour and 39 minutes. Margarita held serve once in first set but there where 11 breaks of serve between them in first set. Completely awful performance from both players and it didn't look mutch better in second set even though Margarita won it 6-4 because the breaks still came thick and fast. The worst I've seen since Florianopolis quarter 2016 between Jelena Ostapenko and Timea Babos where there were 9 breaks of serve in first set. But the match yesterday had 0-2 written all over it so it was destined to end in another straight sets win by Margarita in the matchup.

Dominic Thiem to beat Rafa Nadal at 3.20

Rafa doesn't look poised like he used to on clay, this is a great opportunity for Dominic to steal another win over Rafa.

[four-leaf]

Filip Krajinovic to beat (-1.5 sets) Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 2.14 with Unibet

Filip has beaten Andreas Seppi 2-1, Radu Albot 2-0, Borna Coric 2-0 and that's a lot better players than what P-H Herbert has beaten since he's beaten only Egor Gerasimov, Mattias Bachinger and Attila Balazs. All in straight sets but the quality of those opponents is not even close to Radu Albot or Borna Coric. Filip also won their last and only ATP maindraw meeting this season in Miami by 6-4 6-4. They met once on indoor hardcourt 2010 in a challenger also where P-H Herbert won in straight sets. But I will go for their last meeting and say that Filip will win in straight sets this time again.

[darko08]

Georgina García Pérez to beat Greet Minnen at 3.00 with bet365

Im a little bit surprised for these odds (probably this is influenced for the victories of Minnen over Cibulkova and Blinkova in Stuttgart). Georgina has a W/L record of 132-101 on clay and Minnen has a 48-26 record. Obviously we will need the best version of Georgie on serve to win this but im still impressed for the big favouritism of Minnen here.

There are more “safety” good priced bets like the +1.5 Set Handicap for Georgina at 1.89 with Marathonbet and I also like the Over 20.00 Games at 1.9 with Marathonbet.

[CzechPunter]

I guess that the thinking behind that is that Rabat tends to have slower clay, which should negate Georgina's serve. The odds might be value nonetheless though, Minnen is still young and prone to lapses.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

@Torque - I didn't see the Azarenka v Kontaveit game but I see Kontaveit won via retirement. Was it the case that Kontaveit only gained ascendancy in the game due to Azarenka injuring herself in some way?

I didn't see it either but it seems reasonable to assume that given how it ended. Vika served for the match and was broken, then broken again to lose the set and then broken again at the start of the third before calling it a day. That's consistent with reports that she had a shoulder injury which must have affected her serve.

 

3 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Parlay at 6.53 with Unibet

Petra Martic to beat (-1.5 sets) Margarita Gasparyan at 2.04

Petra played high quality WTA tennis yesterday in her win against Kiki Mladenovic. The match took 3 hours and 19 minutes. After that Margarita beat Veronika Kudermetova and the match lasted 1 hour and 39 minutes. Margarita held serve once in first set but there where 11 breaks of serve between them in first set. Completely awful performance from both players and it didn't look mutch better in second set even though Margarita won it 6-4 because the breaks still came thick and fast. The worst I've seen since Florianopolis quarter 2016 between Jelena Ostapenko and Timea Babos where there were 9 breaks of serve in first set. But the match yesterday had 0-2 written all over it so it was destined to end in another straight sets win by Margarita in the matchup.

@four-leaf I'm slightly perplexed by this write-up (though not necessarily the pick)... You say that there were lots of breaks of serve in Gasparyan's match against Kudermetova and that the performance of both players was awful, but there were a ton of breaks in the Martic-Mladenovic match which you thought was high quality. It ended up with something like twenty break points faced by each player and a turning on its head of conventional tennis strategy where you hold serve and then try to break - it was more like break serve and then try to hold 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Torque

[darko08]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

I guess that the thinking behind that is that Rabat tends to have slower clay, which should negate Georgina's serve. The odds might be value nonetheless though, Minnen is still young and prone to lapses.

Yep that’s right, but the last year here she played the Doubles Final and she has won some ITF events played on the same kind of courts including one played also in Rabat. Let’s see what happens, the match starts soon.

[CzechPunter]

Thiem did well!

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Jil Belen Teichmann at 1.71 with Pinnacle

The only bet that's caught my eye for tomorrow. Haddad did well in Prague two years ago, but she was unlucky to run into the in-form Buzarnescu last year. She likes the conditions though and she's been performing slightly above Teichmann all year long in my opinion, so I'd have her at 1.57 here. Slight value I'd say.

[aphro]

Value radar:

Berrettini to beat Krajinovic at 2.15 with PInnacle

Edited April 28, 2019 by aphro