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Tennis Tips - October 22 - October 28

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Challenger Charlottesville qualifying

Emil Reinberg vs. Stefan Kozlov 

=> Emil Reinberg @ 3.25 Ladbrokes stake: 4/10

Kozlov lost 11 of his last 12 matches, he is waiting for a win since June and he looked horrible recently losing the last six matches without winning a set and receiving some big blowouts vs average opponents like Lucas Gomez or Jared Hiltzik.

Reinberg is very solid and talented youngster who is playing for Georgia at College. He likes fast conditions and Charlottesville is really fast. He was a top junior ranked inside Top 50, for example defeated Denis Shapovalov there.

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Challenger Charlottesville qualifying

Alejandro Gomez vs. Aswin Lizen

=> Aswin Lizen @ 9 Ladbrokes stake: 1/10

Lizen is a solid prospect and he is playing for Virgina so this is a kind of a home tournament for him as Univ. of Virigina is located in Charlottesville. Lizen had a couple of good wins at college vs very good opponents and top college players. Gomez is a shaky player, inconsistent and indoor hard is obviously not his best surface.

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Challenger Charlottesville qualifying

Hugo Grenier vs. Henrik Wiersholm

=> Henrik Wiersholm @ 6.50 Ladbrokes stake: 0.5/10

Jan Choinski vs. Ryan Shane

=> Ryan Shane @ 2.96 Sbobet stake: 3/10

No time to write long analysis right now but i think Wiersholm has a slight chance to edge it, he looked promising at those tournaments in the last years and i think he might improved. Grenier is hard hitting guy but makes a lot of errors.

Shane is all or nothing player, hits very very very hard and plays risky tennis all the time, serves the second serve like the first serve, he is a nutcase on court but he has serious amount of talent, i rate him very very highly but he hasn't showed the head right now to establish himself on the circuit. He was one of the best college players and played vor Virginia. Maybe he will peak here, home tournament 100 miles away from his home town Falls Church.

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8 hours ago, opole said:

Challenger Eckental Qualifying

Leopold Zima vs. David Poljak

=> Leopold Zima @ 6.65 10bet 3/10

I wrote some words about Zima a couple of days ago. He is a decent prospect and has some serious talent, of course he is young and he didn't play much on the pro circuit so far but Poljak isn't an unbeatable opponent in my opinion. Zima was playing a solid match vs. top prospect Rodionov in Eckental last year and i expect a better performance this year as he developed well. Odds are too high.

Zima losing 46 46 

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Kei Nishikori to beat Kevin Anderson at 1.65 with Unibet

Anderson can win this, of course, but it'd arguably be one of the biggest tournaments flukes in recent history. A walkover against Melzer, a semi-walkover against Coric, two tough matches that could've gone either way, that's not how you usually win tournaments. Nishikori has been playing well and should take this much more often than not.

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PL stats 11-12 +12.72 units

Marius Copil to Beats Roger Federer at odds 6.75 with William Hill

Kei nishikori -2.5 gamesTo beat Kevin Anderson At odds 1.9 with William Hill

federer opponent in the final has been under valued all tournament. Rogers opponent in the last round  played very poorly.  Next opponent has far more experience and will not play anywhere near as terrible I expect him to be playing exceptional tennis as he did in his last match. Rogers game was improved in his last match but I’m not sure if he can continue with that same form Marius Copil is playing amazing tennis right now and there is clear value on him at these odds. Copil has Become one of the premier indoor players on tour and right now he is reaching his peak form with perfect service technique, adecuate ground game, Consistency and speed. If Roger slips at all Copil will take this match he is brimming with confidence.

The crowd in Basel Switzerland has also been gasping at some of the shots that challenger today has been making they know how good he’s been playing it’s almost like some young phenom hitting shots they’ve never seen before so believe me this is real and there is a chance of upset. I am setting minimum win at 25% chance Representing enormous profit margin

Edited by money44
Additional analysis

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2 minutes ago, money44 said:

@four-leaf please read analysis, And explain why you’re confused I think it’s clear that Copil has been completely underrated the entire tournament I am thinking that you probably believe Roger Federer win and that would be the public general opinion

No I'm confused because you only write about Roger and Marius and nothing about Kei and Kevin because you have posted Kei -2.5 also.

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 I don’t like the Nishikori pic as much in terms of chances to win and profit but I’ve believed that Nishikori will win the tournament for several days I think he’s playing the best tennis of the year right now but his form started to decline a little bit maybe in the last match I won’t be surprised if it improves against Anderson and he is also serving quite well in this tournament. Kukushkin Played much better than I expected in the last match and I think that Nishikori can expose almost any player off the ground in certain conditions and I don’t think that Anderson is going to be able to hang with that @four-leaf

Edited by money44

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

 I don’t like the Nishikori pic as much in terms of chances to win and profit but I’ve believed that Nishikori will win the tournament for several days I think he’s playing the best tennis of the year right now but his form started to decline a little bit maybe in the last match I won’t be surprised if it improves against Anderson and he is also serving quite well in this tournament. Kukushkin Played much better than I expected in the last match and I think that Nishikori can expose almost any player off the ground in certain conditions and I don’t think that Anderson is going to be able to hang with that @four-leaf

I don't think Keis form declined at all in the last match. He played superb all match long and won deservedly and will win the Vienna title fully deserved.

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Henrik Wiersholm to beat Lloyd Glasspool at 4.50 with bet365

I think Henrik played a good enough match yesterday and he might acctually manage to qualify for maindraw in challenger Charlottesville. He's born in Kirkland but his current residence is Charlottesvillle and that's where my interest in Henrik picks up. Lloyd is nothing special and his form is right now losing matches to players ranked a little bit of here and there even a guy like american Roy Smith with no ranking he's lost a match against recently. And also Nick Chappell ranked between 900-1100 he lost against recently. There's every chance that Henrik can win this match.

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2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Henrik Wiersholm to beat Lloyd Glasspool at 4.50 with bet365

I think Henrik played a good enough match yesterday and he might acctually manage to qualify for maindraw in challenger Charlottesville. He's born in Kirkland but his current residence is Charlottesvillle and that's where my interest in Henrik picks up. Lloyd is nothing special and his form is right now losing matches to players ranked a little bit of here and there even a guy like american Roy Smith with no ranking he's lost a match against recently. And also Nick Chappell ranked between 900-1100 he lost against recently. There's every chance that Henrik can win this match.

And this sums up the day with a big minus on my account as Henrik Wiersholm lost quickly in 2.

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