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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 22 - October 28

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Hello opole - I watched the match, and I agree that it was a lucky win but still the tip for some reason was destined to win, and the analysis behind it was sound.  

The market I don't like today either very much.. I've leveraged the vukic bet with some other plays in Vienna.. I won't mention those at this time, and then recently leveraged two more tennis matches in Challenger tour that I do not feel confidently about.. Luca Vanni, and Gerald Melzer.  You mentioned Marterer for the upset. I looked at that match also, and the slump that Marterer is in .. I agree with, and I made a clear decision that it was not a bettable match for me.  Of course we know there's always a chance for anything to happen.  This will be the first match between the two players, and Medvedev playing as an elite rising star for the future should be able to take him down.  I am not convinced who will have the brighter career Medvedev or Zverev.. This is something I've considered for awhile, Medvedev has been one of the most profitable banker bet in all of tennis for the past couple years, so that logic alone(maybe not wise to go against him). I think is much more likely that we see Copil bash some more forehands/serves and overpower Cilic with impressive indoor play. Cilic struggled a little bit with a terrible Shapovalov.. Copil will be much less generous with his errors, and we can see Cilic hitting balls into the net all match as he sometimes tends to do.. Really not Cilic's finest hour at the moment losing first round last two tournaments, and then struggling with a very tired player who is handing him points. So you could hold out for this one if everything rings true for me today.. I will post it officially tomorrow if the matches play out today as I'm expecting.  

 

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Yep, I'm glad that the tennis forums are up and running in 2018 again as well, a great year...and 2019 might be even better!

Kamil Majchrzak to beat Stefan Kozlov at 1.46 with Pinnacle

The odds aren't great for this one, but some slim value nonetheless imo. Kozlov has been largely non-existent for a long time now, his last match against Choinski was a true disaster, while Majchrzak has been rising steadily, even making a Challenger final recently.

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18 hours ago, opole said:

As the market is very very small and odds already dropped huge i won't give a stake but i can only say that there is still some value on Leopold Zima at Germany F16.

Ladbrokes has @ 3.5 and William Hill @ 2.75.

If you have one of those books you should take the bet.

I think Zima should be the favorite. He is a superb prospect in Germany with a very good junior career. He should outplay an average opponent like Julian Onken easily in my opinion although those young prospects do have their weak days but i think he should be the favorite here.

It's a pity the market is small and most of the bookmakers have low limits for those kind of tournaments as you can find a lot of value there overall.

 

Hopefully sb. was able to catch Zima as an underdog, he won 46 63 62

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21 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

My opinion is that you're overrating Federer's struggles. It's still Roger and it's still in Basel, his performances against Medvedev and Nishikori weren't bad at all, I just don't see it happening. Raonic's woes are much different than Federer's problems. Krajinovic is at around 8.00, that's 12.5 percent, I don't see his chances as greater than that.

It looks like Federer is winning this, but its also obvious that hes not playing at 100%

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Sousa can be a tricky customer, but RBA is a decent favorite. I can certainly see three sets happening with some solid grinding from both.

yeah.. i also think Sousa is a player that sometimes surprises 

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Challenger Las Vegas Doubles

A. Shamasdin/A. Siljestrom vs. R. Galloway/N. Pasha 

=> A. Shamasdin/A. Siljestrom @ 1.99 Sbobet stake: 4/10

Maybe i am wrong here but i do rate Shamasdin and Siljestrom definitely as the better doubles team in terms of quality. They played together two years ago and beat elite doubles team Cabal/Farah in Chengdu where they reached the semifinal. Galloway and Pasha are solid but i think they are overrated due to winning Calgary last week. Don't know if it's right to prize them like that. I think Shamasdin and Siljestrom are slight favorites here.

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CzechPunter if Melzer does win tomorrow.. I do believe there is a chance for it, but not sure if I will take that action. But, if this is the case then I believe we will see a win from either Querrey, Gulbis, Fucsovics, or Pouille to accompany the Melzer win.  Is there any preference of these 4 players winning between punters here. 

Verdasco played one of the sloppiest tennis matches I've seen in a while today, but he looks fit and motivated. In my opinion he played down to the level of Herbert who was not superb, but atleast average. I can see him advancing far in this tournament, but he is definitely a hard player to trust betting for me.  

Opole Congrats on Lima.. I just saw the scoreline for that one.. This is atleast 3 underdogs for you in a row, and I believe that you will reach #4 also with the doubles selection above.  I am working now on submitting something for tomorrow.

Edited by money44
name placement

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PL TENNIS STATS 5-5, +10.45 units, roi 104.5%(1 unit)

Marius Copil to beat Marin Cilic @ 4.5 with William Hill

Marton Fucsovics to beat Fabio Fognini @ 2.5 with William Hill

Sam Querrey to beat Dominic Thiem @2.75 with 5dimes

Henri Laaksonen to beat Taylor Fritz @ 3.55 with 5dimes

Jurgen Melzer to beat Kevin Anderson @ 4.6 with 5dimes

CzechPunter, forgot to mention.. Thank you my friend.. you did save on Krajinovic.  Surprised he put up so much of a fight (did not watch the match) I did go back and track all my official posts here. All picks are listed in order of how much i like them, but the unit price will always remain the same stake size, and you guys can use your own discretion. I personally believe flat stakes on all picks is the best money management for betting otherwise it gets out of control. Good luck.. these are fun tournaments to bet.  I got so frustrated when I can't see the matches on streams during some of the major tournaments this year, and the tennis channel here sometimes is terrible with coverage. They are sitting in a loung talking and making jokes with each other instead of showing the matches, and the announcers comments start to bother me.. I have to mute the telivision to listen the ignorant egotistical americans. << from usa also ( :

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, money44 said:

PL TENNIS STATS 5-5, +10.45 units, roi 104.5%(1 unit)

Marius Copil to beat Marin Cilic @ 4.5 with William Hill

Marton Fucsovics to beat Fabio Fognini @ 2.5 with William Hill

Sam Querrey to beat Dominic Thiem @2.75 with 5dimes

Henri Laaksonen to beat Taylor Fritz @ 3.55 with 5dimes

Jurgen Melzer to beat Kevin Anderson @ 4.6 with 5dimes

CzechPunter, forgot to mention.. Thank you my friend.. you did save on Krajinovic.  Surprised he put up so much of a fight (did not watch the match) I did go back and track all my official posts here. All picks are listed in order of how much i like them, but the unit price will always remain the same stake size, and you guys can use your own discretion. I personally believe flat stakes on all picks is the best money management for betting otherwise it gets out of control. Good luck.. these are fun tournaments to bet.  I got so frustrated when I can't see the matches on streams during some of the major tournaments this year, and the tennis channel here sometimes is terrible with coverage. They are sitting in a loung talking and making jokes with each other instead of showing the matches, and the announcers comments start to bother me.. I have to mute the telivision to listen the ignorant egotistical americans. << from usa also ( :

 

 

 

 

I didn't see it but based on the stats it wasn't so much that Krajinovic put up a fight - it was more that Federer played badly and posted similar numbers to the ones against Millman at the US Open. He was very poor from the service line but despite almost beating himself like he did against Millman he got over the line in this one. Cue a polished performance in the next round against Struff and an easy straight sets win... Even if that does happen though, taking Struff on a plus must be an option bearing in mind the way Federer has been playing and the number of sets he's dropped recently.

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If i had to guess Struff will cover the games handicap in that match.. Hard to believe Federer is not tired from going to the distance against krajinovic.. Struff has been serving and rallying much better recently. He's very fast player in the prime of his career that can hold his serve vs Fed who is just not playing at an elite level right now. 

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great to see the tennis thread active:ok

The match i am intrigued by is the Kerber vs Osaka match. I saw both of their first round matches. While both lost, really do feel Osaka was worse. Kerber vs bertens in the third set was break after break so it could have gone either way. Osaka struggled big time against Sloane, and the 6-1 third set score reflects that. I dont understand how she is the fav. So i'm gonna be backing Kerber at 2.03. BOL

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CzechPunter - As the minutes pass here.. I am becoming more and more confident that we see a win from Dennis Novak today in Austria. I want to know what your opinion or anyone else about this if they have some analysis.  I really like the odds quite a bit, and Novak had a impressive showing last year in Vienna.  If Khachanov is even the slightest bit tired from winning in moscow.. I think thats going to hurt his serve, and in general Khachanov's game is about his fantastic movement for a big man, and no doubt will create errors if his footwork is not 100%. I've already listed this play two days ago. I believe very much in Karen as a player, and grandslam potential also, but this maybe is not a good spot for him to win the match..

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Well, he clearly has enough quality to steal a win there, but I'm not convinced that there's much value. For one, his form has been somewhat unimpressive since Wimbledon, only one good victory over De Minaur and a couple of really bad losses. He'll need some cooperation from Karen to win and I'm not sure that he's going to get it. I think the odds are spot on.

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ok great .. also , I feel the same way about Fucsovics.. I found a tip this morning after I submitted here.  I'm not sure if we are allowed to post outside links here.. just let me know, and i won't do it again.. This tipster seems to be really good.. but the truth is that I feel Novak has just a good as chance to win, and the odds are much better.. So I'm deciding what I'll do in this moment.. 

So I will remove the link also no problem if you mention something... I will have to back Novak in live betting because its off on my book now.. but should be better sense of the match anyways. Because Laaksonen also playing late match in Basel probably will have massive crowd support vs Fritz. I might wait for this one if Karen looks fit live betting. h2h with Fritz is 1-1 with Laaksonen winning last match indoors 4-6, 6-2, 6-2

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Is there a setting where I receive a notification when someone posts on this thread?  because I haven't been getting notified. I tried to adust my notifications , but maybe it won't work 

Edited by money44

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