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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - July 23 - July 29

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Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.69 with Pinnacle

GGL is not only the better player of the two, but I also think the conditions are going to suit him more. The clay in Gstaad tends to be fine for bigger hitters and he's the bigger hitter in this match-up, with RCB being more of a typical grinder that would enjoy something slower and muddier.

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Vera Zvonareva to beat Kaia Kanepi at 2.62 with bet365

Vera might have lost badly last week to Ons Jabeur but I belive she'll be good enough to keep this match tight and maybe even win it. The match is at home for Vera in Moscow but the surface clay might not be her best but it's also hard to say that it's Kaias best surface. They met 8 years ago in US open quarters and Vera won in 2 back then but both where better at that time, Vera was a top 10 player and Kaia almost top 30. I think Vera can fight her way back to top 100 at least and that's done by winning matches like this.

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Elias Ymer to beat Taro Daniel at 2.10 with bet365

This is worst possible matchup for Taro. Elias has the game to grind Taro down. Elias isn't bad at all, he's fighting to get into top 100 which is close right now and he can make it in the coming 3 weeks. He might not pass the second round unless he gets RC Baena but if he gets GG-Lopez I think he will lose but RC Baena he can beat. But first he has to beat Taro. It might not be as tough as it looks like to beat Taro.

For jackpot: Elias -1.5 sets at 3.25 with bet365

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Ramkumar Ramanathan (+4) to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.86 with Pinnacle

Well, alright, Ramanathan had a great week in Newport, so the bookies and everyone are now expecting him to just give up and fold against Fritz. That may happen, of course, but I think that the assumption isn't really a lock and that we could easily see Ramanathan fight just as well as he did in Newport. His serve was working well there and Fritz is still fairly one-dimensional and poor on return, so the +4 handicap looks rather generous to me. I see the risks, but I'm willing to accept them.

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Shuai Zhang to beat Margarita Gasparyan at 1.50 with Paddy Power

I don't believe that Gasparyan is ready to face WTA-level opponents just yet. The road back is going to be long and Zhang really isn't the easiest test in home conditions. She didn't have too many problems against Lisicki today and Gasparyan should be a step down, not a step up.

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Tallon Griekspoor to beat Martin Cuevas at 2.00 with bet365

Tallon looks like a player on the rise. Martin is not the most dangerous player to face and it never looks like he can win a match on the challenger tour until he beats some lower ranked player or like in the case of yesterday when he managed to beat Pedro Cachin who just recently won a futures tournament. I don't belive for a second Tallon will lose this match as I see him as a mutch better player.

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.22 with Marathonbet

Pretty drastic odds given that Basilashvili has already won three matches against decent opposition in this tournament. Cuevas has always been the better clay court player of the two and everything, but his form has been VERY shaky in recent times and I just don't believe that he can be trusted as a big favorite against players that can actually play, which Basilashvili can. In terms of value, there's only one play to make here and I prefer the outright win over the handicap lines (if Basilashvili loses, chances are that it's going to be by a big margin, he's often that kind of a guy).

Vaclav Safranek to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva at 4.97 with Pinnacle

Odds odds odds. Dutra Silva has many of these odd losses against worse players and Safranek will have the home conditions on his side here, so 5.00?

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Hyeon Chung to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.95

I'm well aware that this is Chung's first match back from injury and thus there is a large degree of risk involved in this bet. However, besides going out to Haase in the first round of the Madrid Masters (when he was clearly injured), he has won a few matches in other tournaments he has played, making the quarter-finals of the Miami and Indian Wells Masters. Fritz has done well this year, but mainly on the Challenger circuit.

 

Edited by South_African_Punter

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Feliciano Lopez to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.00 with bet365

@CzechPunter I think I can take some of your writing from GG-Lopez match here. Feli has won Gstaad before because he is not only a player who can hit big shots, but also the conditions suits him. Like you said the clay in Gstaad tends to be fine for bigger hitters and he's the bigger hitter in this match-up, with Matteo being more of a typical grinder that would enjoy something slower and muddier. Feli has the experience to still win matches where he can dictate the match with his serve and big shots and I think that could be exactly what we're going to see on Friday.

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Noah Rubin to beat Nick Kyrgios at 4.90 with Unibet

I already had this in mind yesterday, but I didn't exactly want to lose three bets in a row on big odds. That isn't happening now, so I'm going to take a small liberty and throw this into the mix as well. Similar reasoning as with Safranek/Basil.

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On 25.7.2018. at 2:44 PM, CzechPunter said:

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.22 with Marathonbet

Pretty drastic odds given that Basilashvili has already won three matches against decent opposition in this tournament. Cuevas has always been the better clay court player of the two and everything, but his form has been VERY shaky in recent times and I just don't believe that he can be trusted as a big favorite against players that can actually play, which Basilashvili can. In terms of value, there's only one play to make here and I prefer the outright win over the handicap lines (if Basilashvili loses, chances are that it's going to be by a big margin, he's often that kind of a guy).

Vaclav Safranek to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva at 4.97 with Pinnacle

Odds odds odds. Dutra Silva has many of these odd losses against worse players and Safranek will have the home conditions on his side here, so 5.00?

:notworthy

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta at 3.75 with Unibet

Leonardo Mayer to beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at 2.40 with Pinnacle

I like these two underdogs in Hamburg today, both should have a decent chance of winning given their forms and the conditions. I do like PCB and DSS as players, but they are grinders more than anything and the Hamburg conditions aren't exactly great for grinding, as evidenced by many of the recent results. On top of that, Schwartzman also looked injured in his previous match (which is why I'm taking Mayer with a one-set bookie).

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21 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I didn't watch the match myself, but I've heard something about Lopez being injured. He did win the match in the end, so it can't be too serious, but take care.

Feliciano also looks pretty bad at the start of the match. Maybe best to leave him alone.

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Ryan Harrison to beat Hyeon Chung at 2.75 with bet365

Good effort by Hyeon last match against Taylor Fritz but it's been a long time since he played before Atlanta so I think he will struggle here. They've met once before in 2015 on hardcourt and Ryan won 6-7 6-1 6-1. Ryan is also defending his Atlanta runner up so points so there's every chance that he wins this. Never wrong to trust an american in america since they're usually quite dangerous in the states.

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    • Kempton 18.50   NARALSAIF   25/1 Bet365
    • First one ran OK but faded out of it. Midnight Foile did what was expected and This Breac looks to have gone at the game. Skinflint will surely pick up a race though. Ballyknock Cloud should have finished in the first 3 but got hampered at a crucial stage by the faller and he stayed on well again. Certainly not saying he would have won but that certainly cost him a place which was frustrating. Could be money lent with him though.
    • Bath, 20:40, Freckles, 5/2 b365 
    • Parlay at 5.22 with Betfair After some thinking I've decided to go for this parlay. Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80 Can't see any way Ugo turns around and suddenly plays good tennis again right now so I have to give Miomir a try prematch. Benoit Paire to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 2.90 I don't get it here, what's up with the price? Benoit ranked 32, Victor 193, they met one time before and it was in Stuttgart 2017 on grass ofcourse and Benoit won 6-4 6-4 so what's changed since then? Benoit has become better with two titles this season on clay. Can't see how he's supposed to lose a set here. Victor got outclassed in the Surbiton challenger final by Dan Evans recently and I don't see why Benoit couldn't do the same. Victor isn't exactly playing on top level anymore even if he reached the Surbiton final.
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