Wimbledon 2017

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR WIMBLEDON 2nd ROUND MATCH:

POUILLE - JANOWICZ OVER 40 GAMES @ 1.9 pinnacle
Pouille is a favorite with great recent grass court form, but expect a long match between two excellent grass court players with good serves.

 
 

[four-leaf]

Dudi Sela to beat (-2.5 sets) Marcel Granollers at 2.25 with bet365

Dudi got himself exactly the preparation he wanted ahead of Wimbledon winning the Nottingham challenger where he beat everyone in straight sets except Copil in the semis who gave up after losing first set and Thomas Fabbiano in the final who he beat by 2-1. Marcel has only played one match ahead of Wimbledon and that was against Nedovyesov on clay so he's got zero preparation ahead of Wimbledon. Tells me that he's only here to collect the first round prize money. They met in Australian open first round this season and Dudi won that one by 3-1. Going to be different this time around since Marcel is lacking in his preparations and this time it's a surface Marcel clearly doesn't like. Dudi wins and it's likely to be 3-0.

[four-leaf]

22 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Polona Hercog to beat Annika Beck at 1.53 with Pinnacle

Hercog appears to be on a mission at the moment, while Beck has been really poor all season long. Can't see her getting the win here in all honesty unless Hercog chokes big time.

One way traffic  thanks for highlighting it for me.

[Bronxie]

On 03/07/2017 at 5:14 PM, CzechPunter said:

Top tipping! Along with Hercog & Garin and more still in-play.

Thanks Czech.

[Bronxie]

Paddy Power are offering 12/1 on the men's semi-finals being made up of the 'big four'.

Thoughts? Can't see that market anywhere else.

[CzechPunter]

7 minutes ago, Bronxie said:

Paddy Power are offering 12/1 on the men's semi-finals being made up of the 'big four'.

Thoughts? Can't see that market anywhere else.

Honestly? I can't see Murray making it. He should have the easiest route in theory, but I just don't see it. Crazy? Maybe.

[CzechPunter]

Back Dustin Brown (+2.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray at 2.50 with Pinnacle

Ridiculous odds imo, shouldn't be above evens. Brown has beaten stronger players on grass before than this kind of Murray, so I think he's winning a set more often than not here.

Back Lucas Pouille (-1.5 sets) to beat Jerzy Janowicz at 1.73 with Unibet

Unlike Shapovalov, Pouille has a solid return that has some consistency, which should be the key for him in this one. And yep, he's obviously better in rallies as well.

Back A.Bedene/D.Dzumhur - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Bedene is the favourite, but he'll have some fatigue in his legs after that long match and Dzumhur is no slouch, so this should be close imo. Neither player excels on the surface and the quality gap isn't too big.

Back N.Basilashvili/S.Querrey - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Querrey should've dropped a set against Fabbiano and Basilashvili will be a step up, so I'm surprised that we're getting above evens for this to go to four or five sets. Querrey just isn't at his best nowadays - and Nikoloz is good enough to take advantage of that.

[ElPrincipito007]

6 out of 8 today, that makes it a very profitable 1st round. 

Paire @1,8 (Marathon)

I simply rate him as the better player. Not much to add.

Anderson-Seppi over 36.5 games @1,917 (Pinnacle)

Seppi has some decent results on grass the recent years. Anderson isn't easy to break. I think this can be a long match

Brown +2.5 sets @2,5 (Pinnacle)

Pouille -1.5 sets @1,73 (Unibet)

Sevastova @1,7 (Marathon)

Vekic @4,2 (Marathon)

She's on a good run and won against Konta 2 weeks ago. Value bet.

Wang @4,1 (Marathon)

She won against some good players this year and has a good record. She lost on Rolland Garros against Williams, but Williams didn't win easily. Now that Williams has some other issues, I think this game can be closer than expected.

[tomagio]

I had big combo of 40 matches...around 5000€ win...Guess who screwed me? Whittington obv..can't beat grass mug

[four-leaf]

Jiri Vesely to beat Fabio Fognini at 2.10 with bet365

Have to say that I think 2.10 on Jiri are pure value. You can't draw any conclusion from Fabios match against Dmitry Tursunov more then that it is quite bad to be breaked two times by a player who more or less have put his ambitions aside. The russian haven't even spent any time on court the last two years. Fabio is no good grassplayer. He gets tilted by not being able to slide properly on the grass and then he suddenly becomes useless from the corners. He is also a bit of a counterpuncher and that concept doesn't work as well on grass as on clay.

Jiri maybe haven't done any notable things on grass this season but I'd still like to suggest that this match is on his raquet even though he's lost twice on clay to Fabio. He also has his points to defend from last seasons Wimbledon since he beat Dominic Thiem then and went quite far eventually losing to Tomas Berdych. However I'd have Jiri as the favourite in this one.

[enano21]

With all respect, I have very opposite opinion about Vesely-Fognini game. First of all, Jiri got married two or three weeks ago and seems like all these wedding stuff made his Wimbledon preparation less intense. He played just one game against Pospisil and the statistics for him were awful. And let's come to first round game... I had a bet on Marchenko and he was so close to win the game, but he got injured through the end of the 4th set, called the trainer twice and after that point the game was over for Ukranian. Besides the injury his opponent had, Vesely's performance was pathetic. No rhythm in service, no aces, bad movement, very passive behaviour on rallies. Tbh Jiri shouldn't have been here in normal circumstances. I agree with that you can never trust on Fognini, he can either play an amazing game or make 70 unforced errors but after what I saw from Jiri, this must be Fognini or no bet. My advice to you think twice before place a bet on Vesely.  

[radicaly]

5 hours ago, Bronxie said:

Top tipping! Along with Hercog & Garin and more still in-play.

Thanks Czech.

What a day Czech! Well done! I followed you on Rogers and WickMayer.

I also had Makarova.

Very good day

 

[CzechPunter]

@enano21 good input, although I think he's only engaged  Personally, I think that it's best to just stay away from that match, could be anything from 6-2 6-2 6-2 to 6-7 7-5 6-1 0-6 8-6.

[owenclass]

Is it possible that Donald Young could get a set off Rafa

[CzechPunter]

Everything's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it .

[vikki37]

6 hours ago, owenclass said:

Is it possible that Donald Young could get a set off Rafa

Looking at the stats, Nadal has won twice in straight sets. The closest match was in 2015 though. 

[liquidglass]

Cilic Vs Mayer

It has to be quite intruguing why Marin Cilic is priced so short against Florian Mayer who really is in very good form and plays very well on grass. Oh! I forgot........that Cilic just....is it won or lost the queeens final, which is an indication that his game is in almost prestine condition backed up by the first round trouncing of Kohlschreiber who really has been missing in action of late. Head to Head stands at 2-2 with Mayer winning their only grass meeting in Wimbledon 2010 in straight sets. All their previous meetings have been very competitive with Mayer always winning a set at least. I think Cilic even with his bullying style of play is too one dimensional and really should not be priced this ridiculously short. With Lopez bombing out early, I see Cilic as vulnerable here. To what extent? Well, to the extent of Mayer definately being capable of winning a set 8/11. the tip is Mayer to win a set 8/11. I will be risking more on over 3.5 sets and Mayer winning too. Good luck!!!

[radicaly]

for today, I don't have time to explain -sorry - but I took : 

Brady vs. Cibulkova @3,7   3units

Cibulkova is a good player, don't get me wrong but so unpredictable. She almost got out last round against Petikovic. 

On the other hand, Brady made a convincing win on first round and I liked the way she played at RG.

 

Keys -3 vs. Giorgi @1.909  8units

Giorgi should have lost against Cornet 10 times. Corner is so weak mentally that she lost the game and finished crying in front of the French TV. 

Keys is a strong player who should cover the handicap.

Medvedev -6 @2.01  7units.

I really like Medvedev. I saw his game against Djoko at Eastbourne and with more experience, he could have won it. 

First round against Stan was a really good game. This guy will be Top10 very soon. 

He should be able to cover the handicap .

Edited July 5, 2017 by radicaly

[neilovan]

8 hours ago, owenclass said:

Is it possible that Donald Young could get a set off Rafa

I think it is very possible. They guy is playing pretty well, and I am not convinced about Rafa on grass.

[neilovan]

I am not a big backer of woman's tennis, but  I like  

Carla Suarez Navarro to win her match at evens. She absolutely destroyed Bouchard, by just hitting her off the court. 1 and 1 is a hiding in the last 2 sets. She will come into this game with some serious momentum and belief.

 Jerzy Janowics v Lucas Poullie  over 39.5 games  at 8/11 . Poullie is a grinder and a fighter, not unused to long matches. Not all that happy on grass, and it should result in a long close match.

 

Peter Gojowczyk v Roberto Bautista-Agut   under 35.5 at evens.   Agut is really solid against most players except the top 8 where he battles. He is very consistent/solid, and has more than enough game to win this in straight sets.

As a low priced banker today, I would go for Kevin Anderson. He showed some real toughness and served bazooka's all day against Verdasco in the last round.

 

Edited July 5, 2017 by neilovan

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR WIMBLEDON 2nd ROUND MATCH:

DIYAS-4 GAMES OVER RODIONOVA @ 1.54 pinnacle
Diyas is in great form winning grass court tournaments two weeks ago. She has an aggressive game for grass, expect an easy win for her.

 
 

[CzechPunter]

Back Mikhail Youzhny (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic at 2.62 with Paddy Power

Youzhny getting no credit? Why? Raonic is obviously a massive favourite in this one, but Youzhny has been competitive against him in the past and the current Raonic isn't too dangerous imo, so 2.62 looks like a ridiculous price to me.

Back Ryan Harrison (+2.5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych at 2.10 with Pinnacle

Not sure what this is all about either, as Berdych wasn't that great against Chardy in round one. Could've gone out really, it was all about that one tie-break. Harrison certainly has enough to win a set.

Back Frances Tiafoe (+2.5 sets) to beat Alexander Zverev at 2.44 with Pinnacle

Tiafoe has been rather impressive recently, so this looks like a coin-flip to me, not like a 2.44 shot. Zverev is still very temperamental and this could be all about a single break, so yeah, I'm more than happy to take my chances.

Back Tsvetana Pironkova (+1.5 sets) to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 1.83 with 10Bet

Wozniacki wasn't too impressive in round one and Pironkova has the right game to beat her when on song, with the conditions playing to her favour as well. I'm not sure she'll win, but she should be able to win a set.

[CzechPunter]

The conditions really are slower.

[tit@n]

horror show from Pouille.

[neilovan]

7 minutes ago, tit@n said:

horror show from Pouille.

Had the match over 39.5 so I am happy. Strangely inconsistent from him though...

[ElPrincipito007]

1 out of 7

Some strange results and a bit unlucky with Vekic. 

 

[owenclass]

Karolina Pliskova vs Magdalena Rybarikova

Over 20.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I still expect Pliskova to get through but she is facing a tough opponent who has had a great grass court season and it wont easy in the hot weather for her to play her normal game

Edited July 6, 2017 by owenclass

[radicaly]

0 out of 3. Disastrous day. 
Surprised by Pouille and Medvedev actually.
Very surprised by Kvitova as well. I have Garcia as To Win Wimbledon with 1 unit @64. Odds hasnt changed for her and playing againt Brengle instead of Kvitota next round is much better.
Actually, I really don't see any favorite to win this year so I put a small coin on the french girl. Murray said that one day, she will be #1.

For today, I like the below:

Gulbis +6 vs. Del Potro @2,05 (7 units)

Mannarino @2.09 against Sugita. (7 units)
He lost in final last week but he's clearly more talented that the Japanese.

Maria @4.5 against Vandeweghe.  3 units.
VAndeweghe is overpriced here. 4.5 for Maria is a clear value to me. Small stakes.

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, radicaly said:

0 out of 3. Disastrous day. 
Surprised by Pouille and Medvedev actually.
Very surprised by Kvitova as well. I have Garcia as To Win Wimbledon with 1 unit @64. Odds hasnt changed for her and playing againt Brengle instead of Kvitota next round is much better.
Actually, I really don't see any favorite to win this year so I put a small coin on the french girl. Murray said that one day, she will be #1.

For today, I like the below:

Gulbis +6 vs. Del Potro @2,05 (7 units)

Mannarino @2.09 against Sugita. (7 units)
He lost in final last week but he's clearly more talented that the Japanese.

Maria @4.5 against Vandeweghe.  3 units.
VAndeweghe is overpriced here. 4.5 for Maria is a clear value to me. Small stakes.

The one I really don't like here is going against vandewegh. Woman's tennis is so hit and miss. She is a streak player and could easily get hot, and blow her opponent away. To inconsistent for me to spend a cent on her.

[CzechPunter]

54 minutes ago, neilovan said:

The one I really don't like here is going against vandewegh. Woman's tennis is so hit and miss. She is a streak player and could easily get hot, and blow her opponent away. To inconsistent for me to spend a cent on her.

That's probably the point in this particular instance. Vandeweghe can be hot and blow her opponent away, but she's streaky, so she could also easily under-perform. You're getting 4.50 on Maria, which is roughly 22%, so I mean, how often do you expect Vandeweghe to win out of ten instances? I keep getting Maria wrong, so I'm having a hard time guessing, but she's probably going to win this at least twice out of ten instances (which is what the odds suggest). If @radicaly thinks that she's winning this at least three times out ten instances, the odds are worth taking for him.