Wimbledon 2017

[radicaly]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

That's probably the point in this particular instance. Vandeweghe can be hot and blow her opponent away, but she's streaky, so she could also easily under-perform. You're getting 4.50 on Maria, which is roughly 22%, so I mean, how often do you expect Vandeweghe to win out of ten instances? I keep getting Maria wrong, so I'm having a hard time guessing, but she's probably going to win this at least twice out of ten instances (which is what the odds suggest). If @radicaly thinks that she's winning this at least three times out ten instances, the odds are worth taking for him.

Exactly. Of course Vandeweghe is favorite but she's so inconsistent that I see a value @4.5 if Maria is on a good day.

I dont take the handicap because either she gets destroyed or the other way around. Anyway, let's cross fingers.

[radicaly]

No surprise for Maria.. too bad !  

[dave5perth]

Don't follow tennis much these day's so not really up to date on potential stars of the game, just watch a match there with Kontaveit v Kasatkina best performance Ive seen in womens matches so far. Never seen her before but after watching first set, had to back her at 45 for title, looks to have a decent enough draw, and if she can play like that regularly, every chance of winning this year. Normally just pop into this thread for some insight into the various matches to get an idea of who are the players to be looking out for, as I'm not up to scratch with quite a few of them.

[CzechPunter]

Back Fabio Fognini (+2.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray at 2.83 with Pinnacle

Third time's a charm? Hopefully, nothing to add here really, just that the scorelines have been flattering Murray imo.

[radicaly]

Very good day with +11units.

Czech I agree with your selection. 
I also back Sakkari at +5.5 (7units)

I have not seen the game between Brengle and Kvitova so can't say if Brengle played well or is just Kvitova who is missing some feeling/experience after such a long period away from Tennis...
 

Good luck all,

[owenclass]

Dominika Cibulkova vs Ana Konjuh

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

This match will be very close and i would be shocked if i dont see at least two tight sets

Jelena Ostapenko vs Camila Giorgi

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

So another match and another three sets for Ostapenko to play in as she must love playing in these sort of matches as with her play she is more likely to lose a set. Her opponent by the way is playing well so it definitely wont be easy

Edited July 7, 2017 by owenclass

[Lawrence0831]

Does anyone know any bookies provide outright market for women doubled? After Mattek Sands withdrawal, I believe Chan/Hingis should be the clear favorite. They only lost 1 Match since clay season.

[CzechPunter]

@radicaly Kvitova fell away physically in the decider.

@Lawrence0831 I know that Skybet had that at the start of the week, but it seems that they're now confused as well and only have men's doubles .

[ElPrincipito007]

Anderson AH -2.5 sets @1,813 (Pinn)

Bemelmans said in the Belgian newspapers that the match against Medvedev was the best he ever played. I don't think he can do this another time as he's just an average player. Also Anderson is serving very well, so this could be an easy win for him.

Johnson +2.5 sets @1,8 (Pinn)

I see him more often take a set than not. Not really an explanation.

Paire @2,1 (Pinn)

He beated Janowicz in Stuttgart in 2 sets. There he was the clear favorite and now 2 weeks and a win over Janowicz later he's the underdog? At least the chances are 50-50 so I am happy to take this odd.

 

[CzechPunter]

Back D.Ferrer/T.Berdych - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Looks like a juicy price to me. Berdych is obviously the favourite, but he has been somewhat shaky so far, failing to serve out the match against Harrison and dropping a set against Chardy. Ferrer, on the other hand, is riding his luck - and he'll stay there mentally until the very last point.

Back Albert Ramos (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic at 2.35 with 10Bet

This is all wrong, should be 1.70 or so imo. Clearly, this isn't the right time for Raonic to compete for the title, while Ramos is enjoying the slowish conditions reasonably well. I don't think he's going to win, but a set will be fully within his range and this is an excellent price.

Back Polona Hercog (+1.5 sets) to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova at 2.92 with Pinnacle

2.92 for the in-form player to take a set? I certainly don't see it that way, even the 2.50 that's on offer at most bookies looks like value to me, I'd set the fair to 2.30.

[four-leaf]

Czech I'm not of the same opinion about the chance for David Ferrer to take a set. I think you'll be wrong this time on that particular bet. He may have beaten Richard Gasquet but he's still lacking in so many aspects of his game and I expect him to drop a lot of games and be far from taking a set.

Otherwise I'm with you on the rest of your bets especially Petra Martic.

[four-leaf]

Watching Osaka - Williams and the japanese really has one of the biggest serves in the womens game... 

[four-leaf]

Naomi Osaka/Venus Williams over 2.5 sets 

This bet could very well be a winner so I've taken it. Just feels like it could go in.

[CzechPunter]

Not too bad this Fognini guy .

[DOUBLE THAT DOLLAR]

Ernests Gulbis vs Novak Djokovic Over 3.5 Sets @ 2.62 on bet365

Gulbis has every chance of pinching a set. Yes, he comes into this tournament with no form but the man is a former top 10 player. Yet to drop a set, serving very well and looks comfortable from the baseline.

[CzechPunter]

Good call on Berdych, @four-leaf!

[CzechPunter]

Back M.Cilic/RBA - Over 3.5 sets at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Both guys are playing really well at the moment, I was very impressed by RBA's composure against Nishikori honestly. Cilic to win probably, but not without a fight.

[owenclass]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back M.Cilic/RBA - Over 3.5 sets at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Both guys are playing really well at the moment, I was very impressed by RBA's composure against Nishikori honestly. Cilic to win probably, but not without a fight.

I agree that it wont be straight sets for Cilic. But i still expect him to get through

[CzechPunter]

[Nes*]

just like vs vasek the odds rising on thiem 

[owenclass]

Day seven selections

 

Angelique Kerber vs Garbine Muguruza

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Well im hoping that it will be a great match as these two play good on the grass so two tight sets should happen and quite a few breaks as well

Jelena Ostapenko vs Elina Svitolina

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Well i was shocked that it was not a three set match when Ostapenko was playing. But this will be a tougher match and is more likely that it will be a long one

Ana Konjuh vs Venus Williams

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Konjuh to win 7/4 paddy power

I like the look of Konjuh as she is playing well at the moment and should give her opponent a tough match as she is not exactly winning her matches easily and a upset might just happen

Victoria Azarenka vs Simona Halep

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Well there are so many good matches playing on the same day and this another one. Azarenka is playing well but her opponent is going to be really tough and might just nick it as she has played more tough matches in the last few weeks including that run in the French Open

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marin Cilic

Over 35.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Cilic to win 3-1 5/2 paddy power

I expect Cilic to win but it is more likely to lose a sets against his tough opponent who had impressed on a surface that is not his best and is definitely good enough to give Cilic a good match

Edited July 10, 2017 by owenclass

[Torque]

I'm taking some outright bets for Wimbledon now that a few rounds have been played and with play set to resume tomorrow after the traditional middle-Sunday rest day. I'm going to use level stakes and one winner will see me in the green.

First off I'm putting 2 points on Andy Murray to win ATP Wimbledon at 7.80 at Smarkets. Looking at his side of the draw he's the stand-out player in my opinion with Nadal looking the most likely barrier to the final. I still have my doubts about the Spaniard on grass though after so many years of shock losses at SW19 for the King of Clay. Should Murray make the final he certainly wont be 7.80 to win, so I see some value in this price as even though there will likely be ups and downs along the way making the final should be the minimum for the two-time winner of this tournament.

As it's so open this year I'm backing three players to win WTA Wimbledon; One from each half of the draw at shorter odds and one wildcard at longer odds in the hopes that at least one will make the final and I'll have a nice price on them to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish. From the top half I'm putting 2 points behind Angelique Kerber at 14.00 at Smarkets as I feel that she's not being given enough respect by the market bearing in mind that she made the final here last year. Granted the German has had a relatively poor season so far, but she's a terrific grinder as she showed in the last round against Shelby Rogers and that's the kind of player I want to back - not to mention she's still the best player in the world as far as the rankings are concerned. 

From the bottom half my main pick is 2 points on Victoria Azarenka at 18.00 at Smarkets. The two-time Australian Open winner has only just come back to the tour after having a baby, but that's one of the reasons I want to back her. A few years ago Kim Clijsters arrived at the US Open in similar circumstances and won the tournament, and I wouldn't be surprised if Azarenka repeated the trick. I think one of the reasons Clijsters was able to win that US Open title in 2009 was because she was just enjoying playing tennis and wasn't bogged down by anything else and that benefited her game. Having a baby often has a positive effect on a sportsperson, so much so that the term 'Nappy Factor' was coined. In Azarenka's case - like Kerber - she's a good fighter but at the same time I wonder if motherhood has given her a new perspective and made her a little more relaxed and more able to swing freely. This bet could fall at the first hurdle as the 2nd seed Simona Halep stands in the way of a quarter-final place, but I'm still happy to be on at the price.

My wildcard pick is Ana Konjuh at 44.00 at Smarkets. The young Croatian has a game well-suited to grass, having won her only WTA title on the surface. Part of the reason for this price is that nearly every other player in her half of the draw is towards the top of the tournament betting, including her next opponent Venus Williams. If Konjuh can come through against the veteran American and make the last eight though, which just might happen as Williams hasn't made smooth progress up to this point, and in such a wide-open tournament who knows how far she could go. Jelena Ostapenko was a surprise French Open winner last month - what price another surprise winner in the very next Grand Slam. I'm hoping it's 44.00...

[owenclass]

Just now, Torque said:

I'm taking some outright bets for Wimbledon now that a few rounds have been played and with play set to resume tomorrow after the traditional middle-Sunday rest day. I'm going to use level stakes and one winner will see me in the green.

First off I'm putting 2 points on Andy Murray to win ATP Wimbledon at 7.80 at Smarkets. Looking at his side of the draw he's the stand-out player in my opinion with Nadal looking the most likely barrier to the final. I still have my doubts about the Spaniard on grass though after so many years of shock losses at SW19 for the King of Clay. Should Murray make the final he certainly wont be 7.80 to win, so I see some value in this price as even though there will likely be ups and downs along the way making the final should be the minimum for the two-time winner of this tournament.

As it's so open this year I'm backing three players to win WTA Wimbledon; One from each half of the draw at shorter odds and one wildcard at longer odds in the hopes that at least one will make the final and I'll have a nice price on them to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish. From the top half I'm putting 2 points behind Angelique Kerber at 14.00 at Smarkets as I feel that she's not being given enough respect by the market bearing in mind that she made the final here last year. Granted the German has had a relatively poor season so far, but she's a terrific grinder as she showed in the last round against Shelby Rogers and that's the kind of player I want to back - not to mention she's still the best player in the world as far as the rankings are concerned. 

From the bottom half my main pick is 2 points on Victoria Azarenka at 18.00 at Smarkets. The two-time Australian Open winner has only just come back to the tour after having a baby, but that's one of the reasons I want to back her. A few years ago Kim Clijsters arrived at the US Open in similar circumstances and won the tournament, and I wouldn't be surprised if Azarenka repeated the trick. I think one of the reasons Clijsters was able to win that US Open title in 2009 was because she was just enjoying playing tennis and wasn't bogged down by anything else and that benefited her game. Having a baby often has a positive effect on a sportsperson, so much so that the term 'Nappy Factor' was coined. In Azarenka's case - like Kerber - she's a good fighter but at the same time I wonder if motherhood has given her a new perspective and made her a little more relaxed and more able to swing freely. This bet could fall at the first hurdle as the 2nd seed Simona Halep stands in the way of a quarter-final place, but I'm still happy to be on at the price.

My wildcard pick is Ana Konjuh at 44.00 at Smarkets. The young Croatian has a game well-suited to grass, having won her only WTA title on the surface. Part of the reason for this price is that nearly every other player in her half of the draw is towards the top of the tournament betting, including her next opponent Venus Williams. If Konjuh can come through against the veteran American and make the last eight though, which just might happen as Williams hasn't made smooth progress up to this point, and in such a wide-open tournament who knows how far she could go. Jelena Ostapenko was a surprise French Open winner last month - what price another surprise winner in the very next Grand Slam. I'm hoping it's 44.00...

I like your picks but i feel that Azarenka has not played enough matches this year and think she will come up short as the better players will beat her either against Halep or in the quarters

The Ana Konjuh bet is very interesting as i was thinking of doing a bet on her. But she could be another one who might just come up short a what are the odds on another player winning a Grand slam when no one was talking about her

[ElPrincipito007]

I am also on Zverev and Garcia.

Third pick is Dimitrov AH  +2.5 sets @1,869

When he is good, he is really good, but he often let it slip. After his fantastic start of the season, he had it much difficult afterwards. All in all, I don't think he deserves being such a big underdog. Federer is far more consistent, so I am going for Dimitrov to win a set

[four-leaf]

I'm also on Zverev since I just don't belive in a Milos - Roger rematch.

[four-leaf]

Rafael Nadal/Gilles Muller over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with bet365

Got to try this since Gilles has been playing his best tennis ever last year and especially this season. Now he's reached three finals and one being on clay. I remember the last time Rafa played Gilles in SW19 and it was two tiebreaks and third set 6-1 to Rafa since Gilles just fell apart after not being able to win a set when he had set points in both tiebreaks and it was only about two points where Rafa was better. Gilles has a mutch better chance of winning a set this time against Rafa.

[four-leaf]

I'll try this treble: Sascha Zverev 2.10, Rafa Nadal/Gilles Muller over 3.5 sets 2.00, Adrian Mannarino/Novak Djokovic under 30.5 games 1.72 at bet365

Total odds: 7.25 

Shouldn't Adrian be a bit tired now after surviving two 5 set matches and a week in Antalya? He lost 6-4 6-3 7-6 to Nole last season in SW19 but now it should be even easier for Nole.

[Guest]

How are you doing guys, any luck at Wimbledon?  Heavy work schedule lately...

I saw this crazy odds and had to post it quickly...

Milos Raonic to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.80 (many bookies, I have used Pinnacle)

Raonic played SF and F two consecutive years in Wimbledon. He is TOP3 favourite to lift the trophy in my eyes!  No rocket science, easy win...

[four-leaf]

Marin is just owning today.. 

[Torque]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Rafael Nadal/Gilles Muller over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with bet365

Got to try this since Gilles has been playing his best tennis ever last year and especially this season. Now he's reached three finals and one being on clay. I remember the last time Rafa played Gilles in SW19 and it was two tiebreaks and third set 6-1 to Rafa since Gilles just fell apart after not being able to win a set when he had set points in both tiebreaks and it was only about two points where Rafa was better. Gilles has a mutch better chance of winning a set this time against Rafa.

Nice one.