Wimbledon 2017

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Willis has to go through the quallies again . Clarke is a good choice, kinda surprised by Norrie and Boulter straight to MD (might've been some qualifying event I don't know about though).

[CzechPunter]

MD: http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf

WD: http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ls/lsdraw.pdf

[Simeon Borisof]

I think Gigor has a decent chance of winning his quarter where he will meet Federer there.He will play Schwartzman,Baghdatis and Isner and Federer at the quarter finals.With some luck he might land a juice price.

 

Schwartzman should be no match for him whatsoever,Baghdatis is injured and retired today against Sugita,Isner was battered yesterday so it lefts us only with Federer on his way to the semis

 

Dimitrov @ 10 with bet365

Edited June 30, 2017 by Simeon Borisof

[four-leaf]

Tatjana Maria/Anastasia Potapova over 2.5 sets at 2.37 with bet365

Tatjana Maria will be a difficult opponent for teenager Anastasia Potapova. Tatjana just yesterday won the final against clayplayer Irina Camelia Begu in the short warmup event for Wimbledon in Southsea on grass. Tatjana is a player for fast surfaces so she will defenitely be hard to beat and she's experienced. About Anastasia there's not mutch more to say then what I previously wrote about her when she was about to face Elizaveta Kulichkova but she's got nerves that showed in her last match when she dropped a 5-2 lead and three matchpoints and she's still only 16 years old. But I still count on Anastasia to play good enough for a set early on or later during the match but her nerves might be to mutch for a win. She still hasn't dropped a set in the qualies and it doesn't feel like she will go out in straight sets either with her talent in mind.

What feels most lucrative is the over 2.5 sets compared to over 21.5 games. I'll go for the biggest risk that may very well happen.

[owenclass]

Jelena Ostapenko to win her quarter 7/1 paddy power

Edited July 1, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Novak Djokovic (vs. Andy Murray) at 2.20 with Bet365

Murray has played exactly zero good matches on grass so far in this season and he's having some hip issues by the looks of things as well, so I wouldn't have him as the underdog in this particular match-up. Djokovic isn't likely to win outright, but one has to respect his win in Eastbourne.

[CzechPunter]

Back Kristyna Pliskova to beat Roberta Vinci at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Vinci has never had it easy in Wimbledon and this is a tough R1 pairing given the form Pliskova is in. The H2H also suggests that the Czech should have the upper hand in this.

Back R.S.Dutra/B.Paire - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

You just never know with Paire, do you? Meanwhile, Dutra is one of those players that works hard in every single match, so chances are that this won't be over in three sets.

Back Kai-Chen Chang (+1.5 sets) to beat Qiang Wang at 1.80 with Sbobet

5 matches between the two and Chang lost 0-2 in only one of those, so these odds look worth taking to me, especially since Wang hasn't played since the French Open.

Back Lukas Rosol (-1.5 sets) to beat Henri Laaksonen at 1.55 with Sbobet

Back Andrew Whittington (-1.5 sets) to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.50 with Sbobet

Both Monteiro and Laaksonen are poor on grass, while Rosol and Whittington went through the quallies here. Shouldn't be too hard.

Back A.Murray/A.Bublik - Over 3.5 sets at 3.25 with Bet365

Good price given Murray's problems. I don't expect Bublik to have a shot at winning, but he can play freely given the Lucky Loser situation and he's quite dangerous on grass, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Murray dropping a set somewhere.

Back Thomas Fabbiano (+2.5 sets) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Querrey was massive back in Rome, but he's gone off the boil since then, while Fabbiano is very much the in-form man at the moment, having gone far in both Nottingham and Eastbourne. He got some nice results against big servers in those tournaments, so he should take a set here much more often than not as well.

Back M.Fucsovics/G.Muller - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Plenty of big serves will be on offer here and I'd expect to see at least a couple of TBs as well, so this could easily go to the distance. Both guys have some form to build on as well, which is a detail that can only help.

Back M.Cilic/P.Kohlschreiber - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Kohli tends to be a tough customer for guys that rely on serve a lot, so I expect him to win at least a set. Cilic is in a great form at the moment and I fully expect him to win, but he doesn't have too many easy wins over the German.

[xxx1984xxx]

My tip of the day tomorrow:

Shapovalov-Janowicz.

Both players I have often pursued in the grass season. We start with the young Shapovalov. Already in the last year with great results on Grass. These victories against Edmund and a strong performance against Berdych. Of the Pole with a victory against Dimitrov. The game I've seen. As the game has won, it does not know itself. Almost no single return point. Then only with defeats. Against Skugor he even lost 2-0.

The serve is, of course, a weapon. but otherwise? Backward weak. When the ball is in play, it has clear drawbacks. At a best of five, I am convinced that Jano will weaken the service one time or another.

For me the Pole is never favorite.

Shapovalov win 2,0

Edited July 2, 2017 by xxx1984xxx

[owenclass]

6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Kristyna Pliskova to beat Roberta Vinci at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Vinci has never had it easy in Wimbledon and this is a tough R1 pairing given the form Pliskova is in. The H2H also suggests that the Czech should have the upper hand in this.

Back R.S.Dutra/B.Paire - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

You just never know with Paire, do you? Meanwhile, Dutra is one of those players that works hard in every single match, so chances are that this won't be over in three sets.

Back Kai-Chen Chang (+1.5 sets) to beat Qiang Wang at 1.80 with Sbobet

5 matches between the two and Chang lost 0-2 in only one of those, so these odds look worth taking to me, especially since Wang hasn't played since the French Open.

Back Lukas Rosol (-1.5 sets) to beat Henri Laaksonen at 1.55 with Sbobet

Back Andrew Whittington (-1.5 sets) to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.50 with Sbobet

Both Monteiro and Laaksonen are poor on grass, while Rosol and Whittington went through the quallies here. Shouldn't be too hard.

Back A.Murray/A.Bublik - Over 3.5 sets at 3.25 with Bet365

Good price given Murray's problems. I don't expect Bublik to have a shot at winning, but he can play freely given the Lucky Loser situation and he's quite dangerous on grass, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Murray dropping a set somewhere.

Back Thomas Fabbiano (+2.5 sets) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Querrey was massive back in Rome, but he's gone off the boil since then, while Fabbiano is very much the in-form man at the moment, having gone far in both Nottingham and Eastbourne. He got some nice results against big servers in those tournaments, so he should take a set here much more often than not as well.

Back M.Fucsovics/G.Muller - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Plenty of big serves will be on offer here and I'd expect to see at least a couple of TBs as well, so this could easily go to the distance. Both guys have some form to build on as well, which is a detail that can only help.

Back M.Cilic/P.Kohlschreiber - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Kohli tends to be a tough customer for guys that rely on serve a lot, so I expect him to win at least a set. Cilic is in a great form at the moment and I fully expect him to win, but he doesn't have too many easy wins over the German.

I like the look of those bets and hope you do well with them

I thought you would be doing some outright bets as well. What do you think of these selections

Lucas Pouille to win first quarter 18/1 paddy power

Marin Cilic to win second quarter 4/1 paddy power

Grigor Dimitrov to win third quarter 9/1 paddy power

Feliciano Lopez to win fourth quarter 10/1 paddy power

Karolina Pliskova to win second quarter 15/8 paddy power

Jelena Ostapenko to win third quarter 7/1 paddy power

Elina Svitolina to win third quarter 8/1 paddy power

Johanna Konta to win fourth quarter 9/2 paddy power

 

Marin Cilic to serve most tournament aces 8/1 paddy power

I just feel that these players are coming into Wimbledon in form and have had some good results on grass which is a tough surface to play on when it is straight after playing on the clay

Edited July 3, 2017 by owenclass

[Simeon Borisof]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Novak Djokovic (vs. Andy Murray) at 2.20 with Bet365

Murray has played exactly zero good matches on grass so far in this season and he's having some hip issues by the looks of things as well, so I wouldn't have him as the underdog in this particular match-up. Djokovic isn't likely to win outright, but one has to respect his win in Eastbourne.

What happens if they both get eliminated at the same phase?

[CzechPunter]

@owenclass I went through all those markets, but didn't see any value.

@Simeon Borisof Bets are voided then.

[WinningTipster]

10-1 RECORD FROM THE START OF THE GRASS COURT SEASON!

3 PICKS FOR WIMBLEDON MATCHES:

WTA: KVITOVA -6 GAMES OVER LARRSON @ 1.51 pinnacle
Kvitova is my opinion one of the top 3 favorites to win the Wimbledon title. Larsson's game is not for grass courts.

WTA: WATSON -4 GAMES OVER ZANEVSKA @ 1.53 pinnacle
Watson played very well last week, she is a good grass court player.

ATP: JOHNSON -8 GAMES OVER KICKER @ 1.74 pinnacle
Kicker is just a typical clay court player. Johnson has a good game for grass. Easy win for Johnson expected.
 

[four-leaf]

Aljaz Bedene to beat Ivo Karlovic at 2.75 with bet365

Karlovic have played well lately on grass where his serve comes best to use. But he's also at the end of his career and faces a player who he's been having some big problems against losing three out of three but twice retired after losing first set. Anyway Bedene has had a great year so far and I think he may very well continue with a decent run in Wimbledon starting by knocking out Dr. Ivo.

Edited July 3, 2017 by four-leaf

[bobix]

28 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Ivo Karlovic to beat Aljaz Bedene at 2.75 with bet365

Karlovic have played well lately on grass where his serve comes best to use. But he's also at the end of his career and faced a player who he's been having some big problems against losing three out of three but twice he's retired. Anyway Bedene has had a great year so far and I think he may very well continue with a decent run in Wimbledon starting by knocking out Dr. Ivo.

Then why do you pick Karlovic?

[CzechPunter]

Fabbiano did his best to lose the first two sets by the looks of things. Twice a break up, even a set point in the second .

[CzechPunter]

Back Diego Schwartzman (+2.5 sets) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 2.66 with Pinnacle

With all respect to Dimitrov, 2.66 is just too much here given their history and Dimitrov's recent form. Yes, the surface should give Dimitrov a big edge and he should be able to win, but he's got that special ability to do silly things out of nowhere - and Schwartzman is one of those players that never give up.

Back Dominic Thiem (-1.5 sets) to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.77 with Unibet

A tad risky, but I think that Thiem will be ready for this, he just didn't want to stay in Turkey imo. He's way above Pospisil from all kinds of angles and shouldn't drop more than a set if he's fit.

Back Christian Garin (+2.5 sets) to beat Jack Sock at 1.99 with Pinnacle

Sock hasn't played since the French Open, while Garin was the surprise package in the qualifiers, so perhaps it will be an upset alert here. Sock should come through in the end I guess, but a 3-0 scoreline could be tough to achieve.

Back S.Travaglia/A.Rublev - Over 3.5 sets at 1.74 with Unibet

Both have gone through the quallies, so expect a good fight. Rublev should win, but Travaglia is having a breakthrough season and the Russian isn't the most stable of players either, so I like the odds that are on offer for the overs here.

[Sm0k3rZ]

good call on schivone Czech..i got konta and Yuan Ding left in my big accumulator..you see problems for any of them? 

[CzechPunter]

1 minute ago, Sm0k3rZ said:

good call on schivone Czech..i got konta and Yuan Ding left in my big accumulator..you see problems for any of them? 

Should come in, but betting on Konta at 1.10 or so? She lost against Hsieh in the French Open and she might be injured, who knows what might happen?

[Sm0k3rZ]

i got her at 1.20..yeah anything can happen...my last accumulator..krunic was 5-2 40-0 with three match points..lost 7*5 and she was the last pick in the accum..fingers crossed..best of luck with your picks

[CzechPunter]

Back Polona Hercog to beat Annika Beck at 1.53 with Pinnacle

Hercog appears to be on a mission at the moment, while Beck has been really poor all season long. Can't see her getting the win here in all honesty unless Hercog chokes big time.

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Really stunned by Rosol/Whittington. How one should predict those results is beyond me really, Laaksonen is 1-3 on grass lifetime and Monteiro was 0-1. Losing to them after qualifying .

[four-leaf]

8 hours ago, bobix said:

Then why do you pick Karlovic?

Saw the mistake and corrected it...

[owenclass]

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Thanasi Kokkinakis

Over 35.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 3.5 sets 4/5 paddy power

I can see there being four sets in this match as these two do like playing on grass and with Del Potros opponent being a great talent then it should be a great match to watch

Ekaterina Makarova vs Alison Van Uytvanck

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

This should be the match of the day as there is not much between them and the sets should tight with lots of breaks of serve. Makarovas opponent is talented and a dangerous player so it should a great match

Edited July 4, 2017 by owenclass

[ElPrincipito007]

Youzhny-Mahut over 37.5 games @1,88 (Marathon)

I think this match has every chance to go over 3.5 sets, as I can't see a clear favourite in this one.

Lepchenko @2,79 (Marathon)

She isn't having the best grass season, but neither does Davis. Se leads the H2H 2-1 and beated Davis quite easily on hard earlier this season. Worth a shot.

Paire @1,8

Estrella Burgos @2,28

Ramos-Vinolas @2,41

Lajovic @1,83

Cirstea @1,81

Makarova @2,02

Kucova @3,44

 

 

[Snoopdog]

Tuesday Hotpots:

An acca of the Centre and Court 1 hotpots, ie Kerber, Raonic, Djokovic, Pliskova, Federer, Thiem  pays about Evens, actually 0.96/1 with PP

Edited July 4, 2017 by Snoopdog
error on odds calc

[Painteur]

Any thoughts on Darcis v Berankis? 

None of them have great records on grass but Darcis started very strong this season while Berankis played 10 matches this year only really performing well in a challenger.

 

I saw the odds yesterday for Darcis at around 1.42 and now they are 1.53, I am tempted to take it as it is but if I could hear some other thoughts.. 

 

H2H is 3-0 for Darcis, all on hard.

[Crespo]

Odds, already dropped a lot, but I would think Soylu/Wongteanchai should prevail over Minella/Sevastova in the doubles. Minella lost easily against Schiavone yesterday (nice prediction by CzechPunter) and afterwards revealed she is more than four months pregnant. I doubt she want to take any risks here and is partly just at Wimbledon to collect the first round prize money. 

@1.67 William Hill http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/11336022/Ipek+Soylu+Varatchaya+Wongteanchai+v+Mandy+Minella+Anastasija+Sevastova.html

Edited July 4, 2017 by Crespo

[CzechPunter]

@Painteur I'd say the odds are right.