UK Weekend > Mar 3rd - 5th

[Tiffy]

Think it will be Brighton & Villa for me tmrw. As I said, Brighton shouldn't lose 2 on the bounce, & Forest can only do well against teams in the relegation zone. They are useless against top  half sides.

I think Villa could have turned the corner at last, and they are against a Rotherham side who can't buy a win at the moment.

i have analyased some corner stats, and the only game worth going on is the Liv V Ars game (wrong thread, sorry!)

In their last 5 home matches, Liverpool won the corner count 31-19. In their last 5 away Arsenal lost theirs 33-26. 

I can see Liverpool pressing forward a lot being at home, and Arsenal like to posses the ball and pass it to death around the box. On this basis I will take Liverpool on a -2 handicap at 1.95.

Brighton to win 1.95

Aston Villa to win 1.8

Liverpool -2 AH Corners 1.95

Good luck all!

Edited March 3, 2017 by Tiffy

[malabgd]

Bradford City v Peterborough
Bradford City: Stephen Darby (19/0 d, doubtful), Matt Kilgallon (6/0 d)
Peterborough: Jack Baldwin (19/1 d, suspended), Dom Ball (6/1 d, left the club), Harry Anderson (0/0 m), Jermaine Anderson (7/0 m), Gwion Edwards (32/7 m)

Scunthorpe Utd v Fleetwood Town
Scunthorpe Utd: Sam Mantom (21/1 m)
Fleetwood Town: Kyle Dempsey (26/0 m), Wes Burns (5/0 f), George Glendon (7/0 m)(all doubtful), Nathan Pond (26/0 m, captain), Jimmy Ryan (16/0 m), Martyn Woolford (8/1 m)

Grimsby Town v Wycombe
Grimsby Town: Josh Gowling (18/0 d), James Berrett (16/1 m)(both doubtful), Sean McAllister (2/0 m)
Wycombe: Paul Hayes (19/3 f, probably in), Anthony Stewart (30/1 d), Aaron Pierre (29/2 d)(both doubtful), Scott Kashket (16/9 f, top scorer), Myles Weston (9/1 m)

Plymouth Argyle v Carlisle Utd
Plymouth Argyle: David Fox (27/1 m, doubtful), Connor Smith (21/1 m), Gary Miller (22/0 d), Paul-Arnold Garita (6/1 f), David Ijaha (3/0 m), Ryan Brunt (0/0 f)
Carlisle Utd: Michael Raynes (32/2 d), Shaun Miller (24/4 f), Jason Kennedy (26/10 m, top scorer)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Icongene]

A little heads up tip, that Forfar, top of League 2 in Scotland play 2nd bottom Clyde and are available at 2.3 which is huge. 

Clyde have finally appointed an interim management team after their last (Barry Ferguson) resigned. The new team are 2 of the 1st team players with NO management experience so I can't see it playing out in the usual 'new manager effect' scenario.

Clyde's record; Played 10, lost 8 drawn 2. 7 of the last 8 in the league have been defeats. 

2.3? go on then.

[blader1889]

Stop messing around gents and stick your house on the Blades to turn over Rochdale  

Dale are without a number of players through injury

Keith Hill threatening to put out the kids

Although Dale are quite strong at home, their form has been well let's say inconsistant of late. No wins last 6 with just 3 draws

Probably not as clear cut as the above suggests, but nevertheless, the Blades have the best team in league 1 (and I should know) and the best squad (strong bench) As we all know though, football is unpredictable or we'd all be rich, but 5/6 represents value in my book

As a side note, Billy Sharp is the leagues top scorer (23) so 5/6 anytime scorer could also be value. If not mistaken part of Dales injury list are first team defenders (thought I'd read this on their forum? ) They also have two first teamers serving bans today

Good luck and UTB

 

 

[StevieDay1983]

17 hours ago, Icongene said:

Ok here goes. Tip of the weekend coming right at you all the way from Toronto, Canada.

Blackpool v Morecambe 

I've been looking at this one for a couple of days now as often find you can get some really good big value odds on the division before the market levels out. So I was pretty stunned to see the visitors as high as 5.0 for the win, 3.25 DnB and 1.9 double chance.

When I first cast my eyes over this fixture (before odd checking) my immediate thoughts were that I'd be inclined to favor the (a) sides ability to avoid defeat over the (h) teams ability to win matches. So you can imagine my surprise/delight to see these ridiculous odds. Having followed them closely for a day or two and they haven't moved an inch! Now I've done my research and there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for the discrepancy in probabilities here between the sides and the bookies are well off.

Blackpool - They have tasted victory ONCE since December. 1 win in 15. No wins in 4. 1 clean sheet in 10 overall, 1 in 9 at (h). They have some decent prowess in the attacking 3rd but defensively they are poor and most importantly lack the mentality to win matches. 

Morecambe - 1 defeat in 11 matches. Only 1 defeat in their last 8 (a) ties (3W 4D 1L). They've also conceded none or 1 goal in 7/8 matches so getting goals past this team is tough. They have proven against far better attacks than Blackpool (recently Portsmouth, before that Doncaster, Carlisle, Mansfied) that they can grind out results even against the best. This is not fluke, it's now a consistent trait and they are one if the toughest (a) sides in the division.  They have just moved above Blackpool in the league and their manager is talking of the players playing with a freedom and that they can enjoy the rest of the season and push for a playoff spot (only six points off) which is nuts given how poor they were for the 1st half of the campaign. 

Other than Michael Rose at CB (2 match suspension) Morecambe are injury free and Blackpool have some bodies coming back into contention.

Morecambe - Double Chance 1.9 + DnB 3.25

 

Edit: not that I've bet on it, but I really think Hartlepool are a good shout to take something from their game. I think their (h) form will see them stay up and Exeter have been rocking a little. Looking back, it's crazy how much money could have been made from betting against the top three teams in Jan/Feb as they all had terrible runs.

I agree with that Morecambe tip mate. Blackpool are really struggling to get wins at the moment. It's been almost a month since their last win. Add into this that Morecambe have won 4 of their last 7 games and that includes an unbeaten run of four league matches.

However, I'm not quite on board with the Hartlepool game. Granted, Exeter have only won one of their last five league games but they have only lost once since 19th November last year. In contrast, the Monkey Hangers have only won twice this year. Still, they did destroy Crewe 4-0 in their last league game so I do see logic behind your optimism.

 

12 hours ago, skyblues88 said:

Where do I start mate. In midweek Slade started 4 centre backs as his back 4. He had to waste 2 subs at half time (2-0 down) bringing 2 full backs on after he realised 4 centre backs wasn't working. Us Coventry fans are wondering what player's names he will pull out of his magic hat on Saturday! Our more flair players (Bigirimana, Ghadzhev, Jodi Jones, Kyel Reid) aren't getting a look in as Slade likes his physical players. We've got very little creativity with them 4 players not featuring.

 

My selections are:

- ASTON VILLA (4/5) - Good back to back home wins for Villa and should go to Rotherham and see them off. Rotherham have the lowest points total in England's top 4 leagues. 

- SHREWSBURY (5/4) - Shrewsbury have won 6 out of their last 10 league games to edge clear of the relegation zone. Our performance depends on which combination of players Slade pulls out of his magic hat! But we have lacked creativity since Slade has been in charge. 

- PORTSMOUTH (4/11) - Big chance for Portsmouth to put pressure on the top 3, particularly Carlisle who are directly above them. Crewe are poor travellers and haven't won away since October. 

Was meant to reply to this in my last post so will double post and then merge! Mate, everything you are saying about Slade sounds like echoes from his time with us. No faith in youth or exciting players, playing players out of position, and wasting subs to rectify poor starting line-ups... which by then it is too late.

I'm actually playing a Football Manager game as Coventry manager and the players you listed there have been key for me so I'm amazed he's not even considering them. That said, when he managed us, he didn't even consider using players such as Bruno Manga, Aron Gunnarsson, Kenneth Zohore, Craig Noone, Declan John, or Kadeem Harris. Paul Trollope was the same. Neil Warnock comes in, uses those players, and we suddenly start performing. It's not rocket science.

You saying about the four centre backs is not a surprise either. We had one game where he played four full backs across the back four! Peltier and Fabio in the middle. It was a shambles. We didn't even have an injury crisis in the middle.

Like your tips by the way! Ooh er! 

[dogmeister]

Alright folks. The Scottish Leagues are deathtrap to gamble on as any team can beat anyone, its inconsistent, but it still remains the best league for value stakes imo, and if you get it right can be very profitable..

Can't pick my nose recently on the Forum, hope you all made some money laying my selections on Betfair    I feel though i have been unlucky as i feel my picks have been solid. Anyway to keep going here is my spot for this week, tail at your own risk haha. 

 

Stirling Albion are 9/4 away to Cowdenbeath in the League 2.   Cowdenbeath look like a side that's already given up on the season their recent form reads  W1 D0 L9  in their last ten games, That 1 win was against today's opponents on New years Eve 2-1. They have sacked Dean Brett this week  who was an experienced right midfielder for them (historic investigation into gambling offences)  Stirling Albion in contrast have a recent record of W3 D4 L3 in their last 10 games and are unbeaten in 4.  They have won their last 2 games against form teams in the division, in Elgin and Edinburgh City, which indicates an upturn in performance from them.  9/4 is simply too big a price to ignore imo and i'm going to have some of that. 

 

I thought in midweek that the resignation of clueless Bazza Ferguson from Clyde might galvanise the players into producing a performance, i was wrong, this young team of kids lack the mental toughness for a scrap and Clyde are in big trouble. Montrose dominated the game on weds, and they aren't a great side. Although ironically they held Forfar at the weekend...This is the kind of spot is ideal for Forfar to get their recent stuttering form back on track. They have simply too much firepower for Clyde. 13/10 is simply too big a price too ignore and i will have a nibble at this.

 

Kilmarnock recent record W2 D4 L4   Motherwell Record W1 D2 L7    Kilmarnock some signings in the Jan Window as they recognised the signs of deteriorating form. As a result they have been rewarded with a good run of results that has lifted the team into mid table security. They have w2 d2 L1 their last 5. The loss was very unlucky as they played very well against a strong Aberdeen side holding a 1-0 till the last 10mins and conceding 2 late goals. so really they should of been looking at being unbeaten in 5. Motherwell in contrast are in a hapless position atm and are in free-fall losing their last 4 on the spin, losing an incredible 17 goals in the process, yes 17 in 4 games wTF!!.  I expect Motherwell to play a tight game defensively but  i think Kille will edge a close game at home. at odds off 6/5

 

so i will play the following today along with some other picks

 

£10 on Stirling at 9/4

£10 on Forfar at 13/10

£10 on Killie at 6/5

£5 on the treble  Stirling/Forfar/Killie

 

[chris666]

Oxford came through for me last week against Chesterfield, and this week my tip is Swindon to beat them in a bottom of the league tussle, not great odds at 3/4 (general) so looking at a double with Wba to beat Palace at 5/4 to boost the winnings

Double pays just under 3/1

[Icongene]

Wow. My Saturdays have been AWFUL for 2 weeks.

Morecambe truly shat the bed today. Where on earth did that performance come from?

Not even Forfar came in 

To be honest League One and Two today has been a nightmare for punters.

Edited March 4, 2017 by Icongene

[sajtion]

20 minutes ago, Icongene said:

To be honest League One and Two today has been a nightmare for punters.

it's been like this for a while. it happens every year after january transfer window. teams are fighting hard for points now and it very unpredictable

[Sir Puntalot]

On 03/03/2017, 12:51:47, molasses15 said:

I'm from Nuneaton too.  Not the year we got beaten by Stoke in the FA Cup - and subject to an unprovoked attack by a group of guys with an iron bar, or the year we drew one all in the streaming rain at Barrow....

 to PL @molasses15 

[willie82]

I'd be very surprised if anyone won that much today. Only team that was well fancied that won was Sheff utd. The rest let us all down. It is the time of the season when teams are fighting for play offs, relegation and promotion so it is very unpredictable from now on

[dogmeister]

Two times i have tipped Forfar twice they have got red cards, at least Stirling got my stake money back

[Icongene]

3 minutes ago, willie82 said:

I'd be very surprised if anyone won that much today. Only team that was well fancied that won was Sheff utd. The rest let us all down. It is the time of the season when teams are fighting for play offs, relegation and promotion so it is very unpredictable from now on

She'd Utd drew mate. 

Doncaster, Bury, Oxford, Scunthorpe, Pompey, Exeter to name a few others.

[andrewcalo]

I made £500.

[CloughandTaylor]

On 02/03/2017, 20:56:02, Tiffy said:

TRICKY TREES V BRIGHTON

I know Brighton let most of you down against Newcastle, but I still feel that we should have got something from the game. I was right staying away from the results market. 

There were a couple of stats that were blown apart. The first being that when Braddock plays we never lose (we did). The second is that when we score first we rarely lose (we did). I feel that it is safe to say that Brighton rarely lose 2 games on the bounce, & a visit to a struggling Forest side could be the tonic they are looking for. I expect Brighton to win on Saturday & we usually do well  up there.

I spoke to a Forest fan today, and he couldn't see past a win for us either.

BRIGHTON TO WIN - 1.90

I will have a look at corners too if I get time

Most of us Forest fans feared the worst when we saw the line-up as the bench was stronger,made mugs of us as many of the kids had a fine game, especially Brereton who came off the bench to assist the second and then win the penalty, one of the big four will have to pay a fortune for him eventually.

Still think you have promotion nailed along with the ugly toonies.

[willie82]

Well done Andrewcalo. What was your winning  bet?

[andrewcalo]

There were a bunch of acca's and in-play. Gambled £550 made £1170! Happy days.

[Tiffy]

On 05/03/2017, 08:13:45, CloughandTaylor said:

Most of us Forest fans feared the worst when we saw the line-up as the bench was stronger,made mugs of us as many of the kids had a fine game, especially Brereton who came off the bench to assist the second and then win the penalty, one of the big four will have to pay a fortune for him eventually.

Still think you have promotion nailed along with the ugly toonies.

Thanks @CloughandTaylor, and well done to your boys, no one saw that coming did they! Sounds like Gary Brazil is doing a decent job under difficult circumstances & is bringing through some young talent. 

Hopefully the wheels aren't falling off the promotion bus! The players will need to show a response against Rotherham on Tuesday. I know plenty of Forest fans down here & there will be plenty of banter coming my way over the next few weeks, haha.

I have to tell myself, it's only a bloody game!

PS Loved "I believe in miracles" what a great documentary that was!