Wimbledon 2016

[CzechPunter]

2 hours ago, potus said:

Ricardas Berankis.......

 

You are in a Grand Slam and somehow you end up with a match against someone ranked over 700(!!!) places below you. That is a total gift of a draw and if you can't win a match like that then unfortunately you need to ask serious questions of your career choice. Goes without saying that he's cost me a fair bit of money there.

Worth a read, although Berankis should've done better. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jun/26/marcus-willis-wimbledon-surreal

[four-leaf]

Victor Estrella Burgos to beat Marcel Granollers for a 5/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddypower

I can see why Marcel is the favourite in this one but not this big favourite. Victor has had a pretty good warm up for Wimbledon so I think I'll just believe in him here although his best surface is clay but that goes for Marcel to. It's Victor at 77 against Marcel at 43 in the rankings and that's the reason I can't understand why Victor is priced so high. Being 35 doesn't stop Victor at all and being a claycourter doesn't stop him either from winning a match on grass. Claycourter Damir Dzumhur beat hard/grass specialist Denis Kudla today and so I don't see why Victor should be 3.25 to beat Marcel. Anyway, Victor for me.

[Torque]

14 hours ago, potus said:

I haven't checked the odds Torque but do you not think the far greater value in the men's draw lies in just betting on Djokovic and Murray to make the final? Better price and more likely to happen. Obviously Djokovic as you say would be favourite but grass is Murray's best chance to beat him. I don't think the Lendl thing makes nearly as big a difference as people like to make out either, I think it was more a coincidence that he was Murray's coach at the point where Murray won 3 major titles. I certainly don't think having Lendl in his corner will suddenly give him the impetus to be able to compete with Djokovic as some of the media seem to think!

I'm not sure it's more likely to happen to be honest, although I can understand what you mean. Backing Djokovic to win outright requires that just one player makes the final, with the obvious caveat that he'll need to win the final in order for me to see a return. Naming the finalists obviously requires two players to make the final, and statistically the chances of being successful in that bet must be lower. I agree with what you say about Lendl, and what I posted was just a reflection of the perceived wisdom rather than my own opinion - as I said, I can understand it. That doesn't mean I agree with it. Good to get your opinion though on where you think the value lies. Good luck if you're having any bets.

[liquidglass]

6 hours ago, potus said:

Ricardas Berankis.......

 

You are in a Grand Slam and somehow you end up with a match against someone ranked over 700(!!!) places below you. That is a total gift of a draw and if you can't win a match like that then unfortunately you need to ask serious questions of your career choice. Goes without saying that he's cost me a fair bit of money there.

Optus, I hear what you say, but you have to realise that  grand slams  are the typical F.A cups of tennis with a few contestants entering at marks the could many times give a false indication of their potential. It is for this reason that I always take all grand slam qualifiers very seriously. I saw Willis and Dart and followed them like a hawk through the qualifiers. More positively was his price drop overnight. I took him to win a set at 4/7 worried that the qualifiers might have drained him a bit. 

[Torque]

Katerina Bondarenko to beat Coco Vandeweghe @ 3.58 Marathonbet (1 pt)

I don't think Bondarenko should be such a high price here, as the Ukrainian is in some good form. She won a few matches in Eastbourne last week, losing to Cibulkova who went on to win the tournament. Vandeweghe is also playing well and won a tournament on grass in Hertogenbosch recently, so for me this is a contest between two players who should be feeling good right now and so I'll side with the underdog as this could be closer than expected.

Mandy Minella to beat Anna Tatishvili @ 2.20 Marathonbet (1 pt)

I'd have Minella as the slight favourite in this one, as she's won plenty of matches recently and has momentum on her side having come through the qualifying rounds. Her record against Tatishvili isn't very good and maybe that's the reason for the prices, but they've never met on grass before. I think this could go either way and as Tatishvili isn't exactly in great form I like the price on Minella.

Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Belinda Bencic @ 2.00 OtoBet (1 pt)

Pironkova loves the grass, is playing well and has a great record at this tournament and she faces an opponent who has lost her last three matches. Bencic must be short on confidence right now, and although she beat Pironkova here last year she was in a much better place then. At even money, I think Pironkova is a great bet and under the circumstances I would have her shorter.

Aleksandra Krunic to beat Monica Niculescu @ 1.85 OtoBet (1 pt)

I think this is a generous price considering that Niculescu hasn't played since the French Open and has lost four matches on the trot. The Romanian can play on grass and her style is capable of unsettling almost any player, but such is the standard of elite level tennis that it's difficult to be away from the tour for any length of time and come back and start winning straight away. Krunic is another player who has come through qualifying and she can get another win here if Niculescu is rusty.

[owenclass]

Dominic Thiem vs Florian Mayer

Over 40.5 games 4/5 paddy power

This match is going to very tight as Thiem and his opponent are playing great at the moment and his opponent as reached a final of grass tournament recently and he will be tough for Thiem

Edited June 28, 2016 by owenclass

[janekda]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

Aleksandra Krunic to beat Monica Niculescu @ 1.85 OtoBet (1 pt)

I think this is a generous price considering that Niculescu hasn't played since the French Open and has lost four matches on the trot. The Romanian can play on grass and her style is capable of unsettling almost any player, but such is the standard of elite level tennis that it's difficult to be away from the tour for any length of time and come back and start winning straight away. Krunic is another player who has come through qualifying and she can get another win here if Niculescu is rusty.

I thought very much about this match on Saturday. Odds were 2.3 for Krunic. I made 2.5 for Krunič as good odd. But it was dropped to 1.85. For me there is no value but I admit I don't know how Monica plays on returns even I like her tennis. For example Safarova was the example of return where was reasonable to bet against her with very good odds.

But I like your bet especially on Bondarenko. Even Coco is black horse of Wimbledon. I think she feels that and it could be mentally hard match for her.

[janekda]

16 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Poor form, Copil is actually quite competent and has a decent game for grass.

I think there could be value on Pouille. He is young and is not so poor on grass as results look. Last year he took set to in-form Anderson (final Queens, in W he was 2:0 with Djokovic). This year he took set to Nishikori. Grass suits to Copils game but I think Pouille is generally on higher level and even grass is not so good for him Pouille can win.

Edited June 28, 2016 by janekda
typos

[potus]

Here are the players who I think look decent value today, but I would really appreciate thoughts on these matches from other posters as my knowledge of lower-ranked players is not great. Thanks.

 

Lajovic 6/1 against Brown.

Verdasco 7/4 against Tomic.

Isner 8/15 against Baghdatis.

 

Parmentier 12/5 against Siniakova.

Konta 8/13 against Puig.

Bacsinszky 1/7 against Kumkhum.

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Tbh the only bet that I could get behind is Parmentier against Siniakova, the others all look priced correctly to me.

[janekda]

59 minutes ago, potus said:

Here are the players who I think look decent value today, but I would really appreciate thoughts on these matches from other posters as my knowledge of lower-ranked players is not great. Thanks.

 

Lajovic 6/1 against Brown.

Verdasco 7/4 against Tomic.

Isner 8/15 against Baghdatis.

 

Parmentier 12/5 against Siniakova.

Konta 8/13 against Puig.

Bacsinszky 1/7 against Kumkhum.

 

 

I cann't read fractions but I got Baghdatis in 2.8

[[email protected]]

can't believe Paire is losing against this nobody.

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, [email protected] said:

can't believe Paire is losing against this nobody.

You don't know mutch about Paire if you are surprised that he almost lost to Skugor or this nobody as you call him. Paire sucks on grass, a good reason to why the match went the distance.

Edited June 28, 2016 by four-leaf

[[email protected]]

obviously not. I'm from Croatia so I know how hopeless Skugor is and this is the first time he managed to reach this stage. I really thought it would be a walk in park for Paire. oh well...

Edited June 28, 2016 by [email protected]

[CzechPunter]

Back S.Querrey/T.Bellucci - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Back Nicolas Mahut to beat David Ferrer for a 7/10 stake at 2.30 with Bet365

Querrey and Bellucci should go to the distance, can't see either winning in three to be honest. I'll also be backing Mahut to beat Ferrer, as the latter has been hopeless on grass recently. Mahut, on the other hand, is 6-1 for the season, with the lone defeat coming against Murray.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/XIa6F6

[owenclass]

Do you think any of these matches will go to five sets

 

Dan Evans vs Alexandr Dolgopolov

Nicolas Almagro vs Denis Istomin

Pierre Hughes Herbert vs Damir Dzumhur

Grigor Dimitrov vs Gilles Simon

Andrey Kuznetsov vs Gilles Muller

Jeremy Chardy vs Steve Johnson

Edited June 29, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

I would be surprised if at least one didn't, but it's hard to pinpoint it down. Dimitrov/Simon looks like the choice perhaps.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR THE WIMBLEDON:
MULLER-KUZNETSOV OVER 41 GAMES @1.86 pinnaclesports (higher odds at sbobet (1.89) and several other bookies)
Its a 50/50 match, with Muller's big game and Kuznetsov great return of serve, expect it to be 4-5 long sets.
 

[potus]

I'm very surprised at how decent the odds we are getting on Federer are against Marcus Willis.

 

There are so many potential bets - knowing my luck I'll pick the wrong one - but anything from 3-0 at 2/9, no tie-break at 4/9, or -8.5 games on the handicap or under 28.5 games on the total games line. I'm not sure why the bookies feel Willis will do that well, surely he is going to get absolutely destroyed, or am I missing something? 

 

 

[hugothefourth]

In normal circumstances yes, of course a fit and motivated Fed would crush such a massive outsider as Willis. Is he even professional this guy??!! The two arguments however, for the match being a little closer than some of the odds suggest seem to be Federer's age now (turning 35 soon) and possibly whether his back is still troubling him. The thing that clinches it for me, is that even if Federer's back is not 100%, he'd still like to get through the match quickly and will therefore try and break and shut him out. Federer just has to play average and he'll take this chancer out 6-3 6-3 6-1.  Remember he never had his serve broken – and did not face a single break point all contest against Pella and Pella is number 52 in the world. Willis is 750th.

 

SKYBET under 27.5 games 5/6

[hugothefourth]

Oh Pots, have you found the 28.5 total games line somewhere?

[hugothefourth]

Sorry "Potus"...the "U" key on my keyboard is sticky

[CzechPunter]

Pella has a worse serve than Willis and got broken just once, so the unders do look like a 50/50 shot to me. I think that it essentially boils down to whether Willis will crumble under the occasion or not. If he does, 6-2 6-2 6-2 might be on the cards. If he doesn't, I wouldn't be shocked to see something like 7-5 7-5 6-2.

[hugothefourth]

With all due respect, I just don't think Willis will manage to hold that many times. Let's wait and see huh?!  Where is the 28.5 games line?

[CzechPunter]

1 hour ago, hugothefourth said:

With all due respect, I just don't think Willis will manage to hold that many times. Let's wait and see huh?!  Where is the 28.5 games line?

BetVictor at 1.83, Bet365 at 1.72.

[hugothefourth]

thanks v much CzechPunter!

[four-leaf]

19 hours ago, owenclass said:

Do you think any of these matches will go to five sets

 

Dan Evans vs Alexandr Dolgopolov

Nicolas Almagro vs Denis Istomin

Pierre Hughes Herbert vs Damir Dzumhur

Grigor Dimitrov vs Gilles Simon

Andrey Kuznetsov vs Gilles Muller

Jeremy Chardy vs Steve Johnson

I think Steve Johnson and Chardys match will go to five sets but I would'nt bet on it as there are to many uncertainties surrounding the match in my head like in what shape Steve is after his great title run in Nottingham. Will he be up for a second round match against such a good server like Chardy. Difficult to say so I'm just staying away from it. I feel Pierre-Hughes Herbert will win by 3-1 against Dzumhur and he will probably have some chance to win in straight sets. Denis Istomin should just crush Nico Almagro based on what matchup problems Nico has against Denis (5-0 Denis in the head to head with only 1 set won by Nico). Dan Evans can turn it on and make it to five sets in his match, and defenitely with the crowd behind him. I can also see Grigor Dimitrov and Gilles Simon playing a close five set battle.

Edit: Winningtipster has already written about Andrey Kuznetsov vs Gilles Muller so I left it out.

Edited June 29, 2016 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Back Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Skybet

Sick of the weather already, so here's a hoping that rain won't ruin yet another Grand Slam. Taking just one tomorrow, Wawrinka to beat Del Potro. As much as I like the Argentinian, he's yet to beat a player of Wawrinka's class in this season and I also believe that Wawrinka will be able to work with Del Potro's poor backhand. Unless Del Potro serves out of his skin, Wawrinka will take this comfortably.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/pEo4V1

[four-leaf]

2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Skybet

Sick of the weather already, so here's a hoping that rain won't ruin yet another Grand Slam. Taking just one tomorrow, Wawrinka to beat Del Potro. As much as I like the Argentinian, he's yet to beat a player of Wawrinka's class in this season and I also believe that Wawrinka will be able to work with Del Potro's poor backhand. Unless Del Potro serves out of his skin, Wawrinka will take this comfortably.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/pEo4V1

Stan is at 1.61 on bet365 also so I'm taking that instead of Skybet since I don't have an account there.

[janekda]

Arruabarrena - Kasatkina 4.5

Arruabarrena is orthodox clay court player. The same I can say about Kasatkina. But so high odd on young, unpredictable girl who has played just two games on grass? She had relatively good results, even lost with Ostapenko in 3 sets but it can be changed with experience Arruabarrena. Arruabarrena won over tough opponent Govortsova (last year R16 in Wimbledon). My fair odd on Arrua is about 2.8