Wimbledon 2016

[CzechPunter]

[kevinjoh]

Hopefully Qualification matches can go here

I am taking Jorovic to beat Cepelova. Jorovic is very talented and I think that in a year or so, she will be in top 50, maybe even better. She was the best junior player in the world two years ago and this could be her year. She changed a coach 6 months ago and since then she made some positive results and moved at the WTA list. On the other Cepelove is not in some great form and she is declining since some solid results few years ago. Definitely worth a shot. Odds are around 2.30 (2.37 at Bet at home)

[four-leaf]

Gregoire Barrere to beat Albano Olivetti for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Betvictor

Albano is a tall guy if I remember correctly from when he beat Mardy Fish indoors about 5 years ago and nothing has happened since then. He's done absolutely nothing on the tennis scene since that victory. He seems to be just a mindless servebot. No reason to have Gregoire as high priced as he is.

Edited June 21, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

20 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Gregoire Barrere to beat Albano Olivetti for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Betvictor

Albano is a tall guy if I remember correctly from when he beat Mardy Fish indoors about 5 years ago and nothing has happened since then. He's done absolutely nothing on the tennis scene since that victory. He seems to be just a mindless servebot. No reason to have Gregoire as high priced as he is.

Double fault at 6-6 at breakpoint in decider. So Gregoire only has himself to blame for losing it.

[janekda]

Albot - Kovalik 2.2

Kovalik is in good form. But he is pure clay specialist. His win aggainst Falla was very impressive. But it showed also how he is mentally fragile. Falla is not this year the old danger Falla.

Albot is also in good form with tournament win from last week. I supposed he would be tired. It explains not easy wins against clay courters. But now Kovalik could be a little tired too and it is match for going on main tournament. And I think Kovalik will be more nervous because he hasn't played on major yet.

Edited June 23, 2016 by janekda

[janekda]

Dart - Alexandrova 2.9

They are both young players. Alexandrova is much better one. But she has played just 2 matches on grass - this year. On the other hand for Dart grass is the most played surface.

Alexandrova yesterday won over poor grass player Vogt 14:12 in the third set. So mayebe alos she is little tired. The first round it was big surprise she won over Jabeur. I don't know why. It is suspicious to me for regular win (desease, injury, bet,...)

Dart could play with Flipkens, Hsieh lst year as 18years old. This year she is a little unlucky with draw in tournaments. But in Wimledon I see big chance for her.

[Fader]

6pts Roger-Vasselin -5.5 games to beat Dennis Novak 5/6 Marathon
We start playing 3 sets now and I'm going to take Roger-Vasselin to win without too many problems against Novak. I would expect him to win this 3-0 but just incase I'm going to take the games handicap. Roger-Vas has the experience here and is playing on his favourite surface whilst Novak doesn't have a whole lot of experience on the grass and has had most of his challenger success on the hard courts and the clay.

[four-leaf]

Luke Saville to beat Matthias Bachinger for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with Bet365

I don't belive Matthias has what it takes to win this match against the former junior Wimbledon champ. Luke has pulled through in deciding sets twice in a row and that's what makes the odds so high on him. Nothing else is behind that price. Luke has shown he's got what it takes when asked some questions by his opponent. Bachinger is not so good anymore although he can play well for some period of time. He's not been tested so far by either Pere Riba or Artem Smirnov which both are pretty crappy especially on grass. Here comes a real test and I say Luke for the win.

Edited June 23, 2016 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Back Karolina Pliskova to win the 3rd quarter for a 4/10 stake at 8.00 with Paddy Power

Back Dominika Cibulkova to win the 2nd quarter for a 4/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power

Back Sorana Cirstea (+1.5 sets) to beat Petra Kvitova for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Paddy Power

Back Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat Zarina Diyas for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power

Back Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Belinda Bencic for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with BetVictor

Pliskova and Cibulkova should be fairly self-explanatory, they've got both the quality and form to win their quarters. Cirstea could do well against Kvitova in the first round, Friedsam should get the job done against Diyas (who hasn't played since the French Open), and I'd also have Pironkova as a fairly decent favourite against Bencic (who's yet to bounce back from the injury break).

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/sxjROr

[CzechPunter]

Back Andy Murray to reach the finals for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365

Back L.Rosol/S.Querrey - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Back A.Bedene/R.Gasquet - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

Murray to the finals at odds against? I'll take that. Also like the overs in Rosol/Querrey and Bedene/Gasquet, both underdogs are competent enough to get at least a set imo.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/Doeg3j

[smegmaniac]

Andy Murray to reach the final of Wimbledon 3 points 11-10 Bet365.

Agree with Czech Punter here! I think it is all set up for Murray to do this. He has been so consistent over the last few years. Has reached the last two Grand Slam finals and he loves the grass. The key thing here is that he doesn’t have to play Roger to get to the final and I would make him big favourite against any of the players in his side of the draw on grass. He also had Lendl back in his camp, has won Queens, looks hungry and set to have a good tilt at the title!

[smegmaniac]

Duque Marino to Beat Cepelova 2 points at evens  with Powers.

Am really surprised to see Duque Marino as the underdog here. She has been in great form recently. She reached the final at Nuremberg on clay about a month ago beating the likes of Beck, Siegemund and Lepchenko, she beat Gavrilova at the French and has some good grass court results this year too. She has already beaten Van Uytvanck and grass court lover Lisicki this year while 3 set losses to Konjuh and Sevestova don't read too badly. She actually serves pretty well and can play with variety and I think her slice could unsettle the one-dimensional Cepelova. Cepelova's form this year has not been great and I wonder do the prices reflect the fact that she is living off the past glory of beating an off colour Halep at Wimbledon last year before losing in straights to Niculescu ( a player not entirely dissimilar to Duque Marino though Duque Marino's game isn't quite as idiosyncratic). It certainly is worth noting that Cepelova qualified here very comfortably and I suppose that is another reason why she is favourite but it has to be said that she benefited from a very cushy draw , beating Jorovic, Reix and K Zhang. Duque Marino is a step up in class for her and has one their only meeting on grass this time last year 6-1,6-1. That is enough reason for me to snatch up the evens going about her!

 

[smegmaniac]

Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points.

It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here.  His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2  sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!

[Striker]

Womens Outright

Madison Keys

Each Way @ 12-1 Betfred

Quarter finals last year and a winner on grass in Birmingham last week. Already on @ 14-1

Edited June 26, 2016 by Striker

[janekda]

Herbert - Kohlschreiber 5.1

+ huge serve

+ good forehand

+ outside Germany

+ good grass court player

+ mentally fragile Kohlschrieber

 

[WinningTipster]

2 PICKS FOR WIMBLEDON:

GULBIS-SOCK OVER 40.5 GAMES @1.82pinnaclesports
On other surfaces Sock is a better player at the moment, but on grass should be a very close match, probably 4-5 long sets.

HAASE TO DEFEAT SCHWARTZMAN @1.25pinnaclesports
Easy win for Haase vs. clay court specialist

 

[owenclass]

I fancy Gael Monfils and Jeremy Chardy to go to five sets

[Torque]

Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon @ 1.86 Betfair (1 pt)

The clamour to back Murray is understandable as his form is good and he has Lendl back in his corner, but if Djokovic plays his best then I'd say he's a class above everyone else and should win this. I can't see how he won't at least make the final and if he does his price to win should be lower than this no matter who he plays, so whilst it isn't a very original play I can see some value in the price.

Serena Williams to win Wimbledon @ 2.63 Skybet (1 pt)

Some might say that this price is too short given the emergence of Muguruza and the fact that Williams lost in the final of the Australian Open and the French Open, but I still think she is a worthy favourite here and would be shorter if it weren't for her loss to Muguruza at Roland Garros. It's worth noting though that clay has never been her favourite surface, and also that her record in this tournament is a lot stronger. She's still the one to beat in my opinion and as such I'm happy to back her to finally catch Graf on 22 Slams.

[Torque]

Ruben Bemelmans to beat Thomaz Bellucci @ 2.02 Marathonbet (1 pt)

I think Bemelmans should be the favourite rather than a very slight underdog, as Bellucci has only played once since the French Open which was a loss to Johnson on grass in Nottingham. Bemelmans is no world-beater as his ranking shows, but he's come through qualifying and has a run of wins behind him and as Bellucci prefers clay this is a good chance for the Belgian to get a win over a higher ranked player.

Jeremy Chardy to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.46 Marathonbet (1 pt)

Monfils hasn't played since May and his record at this tournament is poor for a player of his standard, and so it could be worth backing Chardy to cause an upset in this battle of the Frenchmen. Chardy warmed up for this tournament at the Boodles exhibition and so he's had some matches on grass, and even though I'm sure Monfils has been practising on the surface there's just no way to know where his game is at right now.

[Fader]

4pts P.Kohlschreiber to beat Herbert-Smith 3-0 Evens Bet365
Played eachother twice and Kohl won easily in both. Both of those match-ups were on the grass and one was only this month. If Herbert serves out of his skin then he may get to a tie-breaker but I think ultimately Kohl will take advantage of the second serve. The games handicap would be more of a cert if anyone is looking for it but at 1.72 id rather go for this. 

 

[potus]

6 hours ago, Torque said:

Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon @ 1.86 Betfair (1 pt)

The clamour to back Murray is understandable as his form is good and he has Lendl back in his corner, but if Djokovic plays his best then I'd say he's a class above everyone else and should win this. I can't see how he won't at least make the final and if he does his price to win should be lower than this no matter who he plays, so whilst it isn't a very original play I can see some value in the price.

Serena Williams to win Wimbledon @ 2.63 Skybet (1 pt)

Some might say that this price is too short given the emergence of Muguruza and the fact that Williams lost in the final of the Australian Open and the French Open, but I still think she is a worthy favourite here and would be shorter if it weren't for her loss to Muguruza at Roland Garros. It's worth noting though that clay has never been her favourite surface, and also that her record in this tournament is a lot stronger. She's still the one to beat in my opinion and as such I'm happy to back her to finally catch Graf on 22 Slams.

I haven't checked the odds Torque but do you not think the far greater value in the men's draw lies in just betting on Djokovic and Murray to make the final? Better price and more likely to happen. Obviously Djokovic as you say would be favourite but grass is Murray's best chance to beat him. I don't think the Lendl thing makes nearly as big a difference as people like to make out either, I think it was more a coincidence that he was Murray's coach at the point where Murray won 3 major titles. I certainly don't think having Lendl in his corner will suddenly give him the impetus to be able to compete with Djokovic as some of the media seem to think!

[Fader]

4pts Gabashvili to beat Roger-Vasselin Evens Skybet
I was very disappointed in Roger-Vasselin in the qualification. He should of won that match with ease and 3-0 yet he struggled badly and even lost the first set. It's not even like he turned it up a gear and went on to win 6-7 6-2 6-3 6-2 or something like that so I'm opposing him here. Although Gabashvili isn't the kind of player you want to be backing on the grass I still think he is a better player than Roger overall. 2 h2hs played and both won by Gabashvili. The higher ranked player and the player with the better form in 2016. 

[Fader]

2pts E/W M.Keys to win Wimbledon 12/1 
She has impressed me the most recently on the womens side. I'm leaving the mens as it's just too predictable and you rarely get a shock in the final. Keys ofcourse got to the QF last year but most importantly for me she is in great form going into this. 

2pts B. Mattek-Sands to beat L.Safarova 13/5 Betbright
Bit of a value in this outsider for me. Safarova still doesn't fill me with confidence and Mattek-Sands has beaten her back in 2010. Sands had a good Wimbledon last year getting to the last 32 and beating the likes of Ivanovic. No doubt Safarova comes into this as favourite and her best form on the grass has always been at Wimbledon but I do think she will have a game on her hands here. The overs on the games is another market to look at,. 

[liquidglass]

R

[liquidglass]

HERBERT VS KOHLI - On the face of it Kohlschreiber looks to have the advantage having beaten Herbert a couple of times. Herbert himself has a big serve and a game well suited to grass. KOHLI has been in good form, Herbert the fresher, Herbert to win at least one set 4/6 with a huge possibility of flooring Kohli

[Fader]

Will never bet on Kohl again. i know he is a choker but that was shocking. 

[tit@n]

how come L.Pouille is an underdog tomorrow against Copil?

[CzechPunter]

2 hours ago, tit@n said:

how come L.Pouille is an underdog tomorrow against Copil?

Poor form, Copil is actually quite competent and has a decent game for grass.

[CzechPunter]

Back T.Berdych/I.Dodig - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

Back F.Lopez/R.Ram - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Back V.Pospisil/A.Ramos - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power

To sum up - all three underdogs look a bit underrated to me here, as none of the favourites is in a particularly good/consistent form. Berdych was shambolic in Halle, Lopez has been very average in recent weeks, and Pospisil has been up and down all season long, so those 3-0 victories just shouldn't be on the cards in my opinion.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/OgyjcI

[potus]

Ricardas Berankis.......

 

You are in a Grand Slam and somehow you end up with a match against someone ranked over 700(!!!) places below you. That is a total gift of a draw and if you can't win a match like that then unfortunately you need to ask serious questions of your career choice. Goes without saying that he's cost me a fair bit of money there.