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Monthly Naps Comp, Wednesday, 11th Nov 2015


robertob

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6.40 Kempton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m

Despite the widest draw, which is hardly an advantage, lightly raced Ripoll makes appeal at quite a big price, given that I would have expected him much shorter after an excellent Nursery debut at Wolverhampton eight days ago. The form of that particular race looks quite strong if seen in the right context, as I felt quite a number of those finishing behind the winner ran promising that day.

Ripoll doesn't stand out pedigree wise, though he should theoretically appreciate the drop in trip. The 9.5f at Wolverhampton stretched his stamina, though he ran on well after being hampered over 1f out. Before that he travelled wide through but up with a cracking pace and must have done plenty before turning for home. So it was encouraging the positive way he saw out the race. 

Off an unchanged mark I feel he has a prime chance to win this uncompetitive contest where good form is scarce and therefore his latest piece of form certainly the strongest one on offer. If he can progress slightly for the experience, he should be able to overcome the draw and land the odds. 

Ripoll @ 15/2 Paddy Power

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Ex 3.40 - Otago trail - win at 11/10 bog bet365

Novice chase over 20F

None of the runners here have run in a chase before which adds a frisson of uncertainty

Both market leaders won Points and look like chasing would be their game

My selection was a bold jumper over hurdles, has won on Heavy ground, won first time out last season and has gained both his hurdle wins on right handed tracks.

On Tour was slightly rated over hurdles but to date his best performances have come left handed on flat or sharp tracks and this testing course on heavy ground might find him out

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5.10 Kempton

Normal Equilibrium put in a solid effort last time out at Leicester, 1 from 1 on the AW (was a fairly weak affair at Chelmsford in the spring) has dropped back to that last winning mark. Had a useful 5lb claimer on last time out has Harley on today so loses that 5lb. Yard appear to have slightly gone off the boil over the last week or so. Cheekpieces back on haspreviously won in them but also ran poor in them before.

Dynamo Walt is one of only a few that has plenty of form on the AW, progressed nicely at Chelmsford this year winning 2 handicaps over 5f, looked held off latest mark over that CD again so needs to step forward again.

Judicial was a promising sort as a 2yr old, made return from nearly a year off in July when finishing a distant last. Swapped yards and that needs to have a positive effect best watched at present.

Desert Strike looks well held off these sort marks previously also this grade is above the usual sort he is winning,

El Viento and Compton Heights are probably the two too concentrate on they are both closely matched on form. Compton Heights beat El Viento when the former was last seen at Ayr in a very competitive handicap beating him by 1 length he is up 6lb for that effort. However El Vieton has since boosted that form nicely with a further 2 solid runner up efforts on turf he is 9lb higher since they last met so effectively Compton Heights is better off by 3lb despite having beaten him. Both need to continue upward curve on the AW but if they can they could fight out the finish with Compton Heights better treated coming off best.

 

1pt win Compton Heights 3/1 PP

 

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1.00 Bangor - Gus Macrae @9 Coral

The 11 years old from R Curtis yard, was ridden both 2 starts this season under 10lbs claimer but Sean Bowen up on top today. He is very much capable to win one of these races in back to his days but may be the age already caught him. Never really travelled last time, and improvement is a luxury thing to have nowadays for him but trainer/jockey combination is on good form, so hope that they can peak him good.

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Good Trainer / Jockey combo here in Iain Jardine and Brian Harding, when Harding was last here at the Ayrshire track he drew a blank so with that also in mind it could make him the more determined, it's a weak looking handicap hurdle and Mr Jardine's 4yr old filly has a good looking chance at getting off the mark, she ran a cracker when she last showed up at Hexham and only lost out by a whisker to a Brian Ellison good thing, she has nothing of that caliber today and this looks a great opportunity.

Trip and going both a positive and what with B.Harding getting the leg up for the third time he'll know today exactly what's required with setting better timing.

1:20 Ayr - Fairy Theatre.  1pt Win Bet @ 9/2 Paddy Power & a few others 

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7.30 Dundalk - Roachdale House @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Fairly useful on the flat for Fahey in England winning a Class 2 handicap back in 2014 and went off a well fancied 8/1 in a big handicap on ICW at Leopardstown after a promising debut for Weld. He disappointed then and on his subsequent start at Listowel and the owners have now switched him to Paul Flynn's yard. Bit of a strange decision and that's probably why you can get 25/1 in just a 9 runner field but he's now down 5lbs to a mark of 82 and if the application of a hood to help him settle sparks some sort of revival he's got to have a shout.

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2.00 Bangor - Cloudy Too win @ 9/1 BetFred

Fairly classy chaser a couple of years ago winning a listed chase and a grade 3 in 2013 before finishing 2nd behind Captain Chris at Ascot in a grade 1. His form has tailed off since then as he pulled up in the 2014 Gold Cup behind Lord Windermere and then finished out of the frame in his next 3 chases. For that poor run of form his handicap mark has eased to a nice looking mark of 145. He was rated 157 at his best in 2014 and won his grade 3 and listed chases on higher marks than he is on today. He ran over hurdles a couple of weeks ago and probably needed the run so should be fit and ready for this. 

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1.40 Exeter: Cloudy Copper 4/1 Bet365

Top weight but ran well last time after a break and should be spot on this time. Has won here over hurdles and won't mind the ground. Richard Johnson has been booked who was on top last time so he will know him better now, he looks a thorough stayer and this test should be right up his street.

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K8.10 Golly Miss Molly 20/1 Betfred

Last race of the day and J Gask might be lining this one up for a gamble having booked Martin Harley for the first time who has a terrific record around here (7 from 31 = 23%). The horse has been placed in 3 from 6 races at the course (winning one) and is just 5 from 17 elsewhere. Finished a close 2nd here off a 2lb higher mark earlier this year and with Harley now in the saddle, could go very close at a nice price.

 

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1320 ayr

 

1pt win caledonia 3/1 bet365

i think trainer jim goldie might have a nice hurdler here, a winner of a bumper,he returned from a year lay off to finish

2nd in a hurdle race over todays course and distance, again he could lead and dictate pace, hopefully he keeps

a little in the tank, to see the trip out without being headed

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What A Good Night, 2-00 Bangor On Dee, 1/2 pt e/w 15/2 with Betway please. The Skelton trained 7-y-o gelding was a very unlucky loser a fortnight ago at Stratford, coming down at the last when four lengths clear and the race his for the taking, if having suffered no lasting effects from the fall he should win here.

Well done, mugged me on the line, What a Dream :beer

Edited by Jimmy2shoes
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3.30 Bangor  BALER BOY  is a massive price for a horse that should do better over hurdles.  Flat form would make him around 100/1 for this, but hurdling a different ball game and better expected today. An unexposed race, and no trip and ground problems, so we worth the risk at the odds.

0.5 pts EW 80/1 Skybet BOG

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